Race 6:
I have a special place in my heart for horses that might not be very well bred but run their hearts out every time they step to the race track. Howdy Kingkowboy (#11) is 20-1 on the morning line but TimeformUS pace projector has him clear on an uncontested lead going into the backstretch and if left alone he can be a very tough rival to run down in the stretch. He was the beaten favorite in the Tempe Handicap on March 11 but did everything right but win where he won the early pace battle but lost the war. In that race he battled between Cherokee Legacy and Factored In into and around the first turn and did not get any breather down the backstretch Factored In continued to press him all the way around the final turn. The Kodiak Kowboy gelding finally put away that rival into the stretch and opened up a 1-½ length lead at mid-stretch but was caught right on the wire by He’s Munnie who rallied from perfect spot in fifth after a half mile to win by a head. Howdy Kingkowboy ran the better race winning the early pace battle that saw his two speed rivals weaken to finish 4th and 7th and only caught on the wire by a perfect trip stalking winner. His next turf race happen on June 3 at Santa Anita Park where he was up for a claiming price of $50,000 and even though he only won by three-quarters of a length he showed so much fight and determination to win that it was impressive watching the race replay. He showed his typical early speed to battle head and head with Giro Candito early with Squared Squared tracking that speed duel in third early. He was able to shake loose from those two speed rivals and drifted out past the quarter pole as the two favorites ranged up from off the pace to challenge Howdy Kingkowboy and actually poked their head in front but this gelding refused to quit easily battling back between rivals to win by three-quarters of a length and galloping out well in front after the wire. The two pace rivals nearest the winner weaken badly to finish fourth and fifth as this effort is better than any speed figure would indicate because he showed determination after an intense speed duel early. He continues to hold his speed according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington who assigned him a B- for his previous two works both with Bryan Pena aboard who is back in the irons. He will be in front going into the first turn and if he can somehow ration his speed effectively the nine furlong event he could prove tough rival to run down at what should be boxcar odds.
Race 8:
This race is filled with plenty of horses that are either mid-pack, plodders, and closers. This race only has two real confirmed speed types in Khaleesi and our top pick Ok Doll (#11) at 9-2 on the morning line. The daughter of First Samurai exits a third-place finish back on January 29 where her jockey Rafael Bejarano rated her too much behind a very slow early pace won by the pace pressing winner Peach Cove in a race that produced TWO next time out winners. The race that sticks out and where she should enjoy a similar trip as today was back on December 29, 2016 at Santa Anita at today’s one-mile distance where she was able to use her early speed to track the pacesetter Nine Point Nine early and wear that rival down to win by three-quarters of a length racing on her wrong lead to the wire. She will make her first start off a 174-day layoff but note she ran well twice off layoffs. She was second beaten a half-length at odds of 15-1 returning off a 78-day layoff in her only start over the Del Mar turf course on August 27, 2016 where she led at each call but was caught right on the wire by the favored stalker Nodiac and she returned from a 69-day layoff when she won that aforementioned December 29 race over Nine Point Nine. TimeformUS pace projector has her pressing the pace outside of Khaleesi and she will get first run on the mid-pack and closing types for winning trainer and jockey combination of Richard Baltas and jockey Rafael Bejarano.
Race 10:
My stand against in this race is the morning line favorite Lucky Soul (#7). The son of Lookin At Lucky finished a fast closing fourth and galloped out in the front of the entire field in his debut on April 20 behind subsequent stakes winner Arms Runner. He stretched out to two turns on May 27 and finished a fast closing third beaten a head behind the last to first winner Miner’s Light. Despite that margin of defeat, that race has not returned to be a productive one as only the fifth-place finisher, Oregon, came back to win with the rest of the field producing one third-place finish and six others came back to finish off the board in there next race. His lack of early speed is a concern because this race only has confirmed front runner and that pacesetter is the selection in this field along with another horse exceptionally bred to run long on the grass.
Ready Aim (#9) will now stretch out to two turns after preparing for this event in two sprints at Santa Anita. The son of Into Mischief has run sneaky well in each of his two starts and should show his form on the stretch out to two turns and trying turf for the first time. He finished seventh beating three horses to the wire in his debut on May 6 run over a wet fast sealed main track where he ran greenly but showed ability in defeat. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, he “raced at the tail of the field, ran in spots while under a drive heading into the far turn, rallied five-wide into the stretch, flattened out mid-stretch.” That maiden race returned to be a monster “key” race where the winner The Critical Way returned win the state-bred Danzig Stakes at Penn National with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, fifth-place finisher Gato Del Oro returned to break his maiden with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and the sixth-place finisher The Party Factor returned to break his maiden with a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. The Richard Mandella trainee “ran in spots” in his debut and in order to correct this issue the blinkers were added in his second start on June 10 and he ran into another “key” race field where he showed signs of form. In that race, HR Trip Notes commented this colt “Showed pace from the outside near the front, sitting just off heading into the turn, making a brief challenge in the turn, with the run petering out in mid-stretch.” The race earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and that speed figure was validated when the winner Gato Del Oro returned to win Allowance N1X on opening day with 93 Beyer Speed Figure and the sixth-place finisher dropped for a $75,000 claiming price and won with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure as the two horses that vied for the lead with Ready Aim already returned to win their next start. He is a half brother to two turf winners including full sister Forever Famous who won one of seven starts on the turf. Formulator Fact: In the past five years, trainer Richard Mandella wins at gaudy 36% (11/4-2-3) with his starters switching from dirt to turf and stretching from sprint to route in a maiden special weight event. He turned in crisp five furlong move here at Del Mar on July 17 in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Last 4f with a maiden mate working steady in 48.3. Should like any added distance.” TimeformUS pace projector has this bay colt loose on an uncontested early lead and on the stretch out should be a tough rival to run down under Drayden Van Dyke.
Borg (#5) is the one horse that since his debut on May 6 I have patiently waited for this colt to stretch out to two turns and try grass because his pedigree is strictly about running long on the grass. He managed to run very well to finish fourth beaten five-lengths in his career debut on May 6 where the HR Trip Notes commented “traveled at the tail of the field, niggled at to keep pace down the backstretch, angled off the rail into the stretch, weaved through traffic in the lane, dove to the rail, flew home on his wrong lead, galloped out powerfully.” This was the same “key” race that Ready Aim exits that produced THREE next time out winners. Even though I knew he would be best running long on the grass, he was top choice for me in his second career start on July 1 in his first race for trainer Simon Callaghan and he managed to split the field finishing fourth behind the impressive gate to wire winner Pavel who romped with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. This son of Candy Ride was the only horse finishing in the stretch as the first three finishers ran 1st, 3rd, and 2nd after a half mile and this was a respectable performance in defeat. He now will stretch out to two turns and try grass for the first time and based on his breeding this should pose no issue. His dam She’s Sensational won 6 of 16 starts but was 4 for 8 routing on the turf. Moreover, she produced Our Way who won 4 of 12 starts on the turf thus Borg should have no problem stretching out or switching to the turf for the first time. In addition, he has come back to breeze very well according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with a half mile spin in 49 ⅖ that Andy gave a B stating “Breezed fluidly out of last try going the last 1/4 in 24.0. Sure seems much better than record so far.” He should find himself tracking the pace in comfortable spot in the first flight behind expected pacesetter Ready Aim and attempt to run down that rival in the stretch as those two are my top choices in the finale.
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