BEST BET: GATO DEL ORO (Race 7, 4-1)
Race 6: Allowance N2X/Optional $62,500, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and upward
SKELTON PASS (#6, 6-1) is a selection that will attempt to the buck the current track profile at one-mile on this turf course. Through August 23, 2017, there have been 40 races at today’s one-mile distance on turf with only 4 of them won gate to wire for a 10% rate. However, if I get the right price on a horse then flexibility is warranted and Skelton Pass falls in that profile. Prior to his previous attempt at Del Mar, he finished a non-excuse third down the hillside turf course on June 9 where he stalked the fast pace set by the uncontested leader David’s Memory early, moved up down the hill and into the main turf course, but lugged in behind the winner at mid-stretch, refused to switch to his right lead until very late and just missed in a blanket three-horse photo finish. This was not a particularly strong race as it produced one winner, one second-place finish, and one-third place finish with four horses finishing off the board in there next start. He was claimed by trainer Mark Glatt for $40,000 off this third-place finish and returned from a fifty-one day layoff on July 30 where he received plenty of wagering support going off as the third choice at 5-1 and he finished third beaten less than two-lengths behind Tequila Joe and today’s rival Newsman. When I reviewed that race it was this gelding by Temple City that ran the best race because he won the early pace battle but lost the war to two opportunistic closers. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, this bay gelding “prompted the pace early then dueled onto the backside, took a short advantage around the far turn, remained in battle through the drive, lost the lead deep stretch, weakened inside the final part, barely won the photo for third.” This was an excellent race because the pace rival he dueled with through the first six furlongs, To the Bar, weaken badly to finish 8th beaten 4-½ lengths and the rival that stalked that duel in third, Cimpl Man, weaken to finish 7th beaten 4-¼ lengths with the first two finishers rallied from 7th and 9th. He returns at this same class level without the claiming price of $62,500 which is a positive sign and he came back with a stellar five furlong move in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating “best drill to date going clear with a zippy late 3f in 35.3 striding out like a happy sort. Seems set for best.” The biggest factor for him being the top choice has to deal with the anticipated pace scenario. Without To the Bar in this field, Skelton Pass appears he will be loose on an uncontested lead in a situation that TimeformUS feels will favor horses on or near the early lead. Tyler Baze retains the mount for trainer Mark Glatt who has won with 4 of his last 8 starters since August 20.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (6) SKELTON PASS at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 6-4. Small reverse.
Smaller Exactas: 6-5, 6-7. No reverse.
$5 Pick 3: 6 / 4 / 2, 5, 6, 9 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $5 = $20
$4 Pick 3: 4 / 4 / 2, 5, 6, 9 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $4 = $16
Race 7: $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes, 1-Mile, Three-year olds
GATO DEL ORO (#4, 4-1) is a three-year old that really caught my eye in his second start on June 10 when he broke his maiden by 1-½ lengths where the trouble comment of “Squeezed Start, Inside” does not do justice to the trip this son of Medaglia D’Oro encountered. According to the HR Trip Notes, “Broke slow, being pinched back at the start, making his way under a hold along the inside to lead after a quarter of a mile, gradually putting away his pace rivals in the turn, kicking home strong enough while slowly drifting out to keep the late challenger at bay.” He earned at the time a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and that figure was validated when his pace rival in that race, The Rule of King’s, returned to break his maiden for a $75,000 claiming price with a career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure. His next start would be versus winners and around two turns which are two difficult obstacles for a young horse and this Richard Baltas trainee proved that he handle those two tasks in impressive fashion on opening day July 19 at Del Mar. The HR Trip Notes stated “Broke beautifully, settled on the flank of the pacesetter, bore down on the lead in the far turn, took over in hand, chased to the wire,” with an excellent gallop out after the wire like a prospect that was stakes bound earning career best 93 Beyer Speed Figure and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The early pace was very fast according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+17, +9) and the early pace took its toll on those on or near the front end as horses that chased Gato Del Oro weaken to finish 6th, 7th, and 10th beaten 11-¼, 11-½, and 19-¼ lengths respectively. The $150,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase is out of a dam that produced Grade 1 winners Pussycat Doll and is a full sibling to Jimmy Creed is now realistically placed in this age restricted stakes event where he will take on Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Gormley and Grade 1 Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Battle of Midway but I feel that we have not seen the best from this Richard Baltas trainee. National Turf’s Andy Harrington feels this colt can only get better after he witness his best of sixteen six-furlong move in 1:11 ⅖ on August 12 that he stated in this B+ move “big drill breaking 4 lengths clear from Inordinate going 35.3 waiting on that one in the lane going 59.4 then finishing with a rush in 111.4 to the 7f pole, galloping well in 125.2. Streaker gets better and better; Bejarano up and blinkers on.” If Battle of Midway with new blinkers elects to go for the early lead I expect jockey Rafael Bejarano to place his mount in second right off that rival’s flank before making his run at the leader into and around the far turn. I felt one week ago that this colt will go off favored but when I found out on Wednesday that Battle of Midway and Gormley are in the same race I had more confidence because now we will get a price on a colt that has the potential to win a Grade 1 race in the future. He is my BEST BET OF THE MEET and I expect a career best performance from this regally bred colt.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (4) GATO DEL ORO at 7-2 or better
Main Exactas: 4-3, 4-7. No reverse.
Race 9: Grade 2 Pat O’Brien, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward
BLAMEITONTHELAW (#5, 12-1) is a horse that will benefit from the unfortunate scratch of the morning line favorite Danzig Candy as now this race is wide open and lacks a confirmed pacesetter. The son of Blame recorded a victory and two second place finishes from four previous starts sprinting on the main track but signs showed that this John Sadler trainee was rounding into form when he finished an excellent second behind Ransom the Moon on April 30 at Santa Anita. In that race, he trailed early behind a three-horse battle for the early lead that went moderate fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-3, -5) for the first half mile. He moved up between rivals leaving the backstretch and made a three wide run on the far turn to challenge eventual winner Ransom the Moon all the way to mid-stretch and was well clear of the rest of the field finishing 4-¼ lengths in front of the third-place finisher earning a then career best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The strength of that race was flattered when the winner returned to win Grade 2 Kona Gold, was second in the Grade 2 San Carlos Handicap, and won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes here at Del Mar. He returned to the turf down the hillside turf course in his next race and finished a clear second behind the gate to wire winner Tiz A Billy. He returned to the Del Mar main track on July 21 the scene where he broke his maiden in his career debut in August 2015 and switched to Evan Roman for the first time and the result was game victory earning a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure and the field’s top last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. For a horse that had not shown a lot of early speed, Blame It on the Law showed that asset where he was inside of a four-horse speed duel through blazing fractions of 22.01 opening quarter and 44.26 second half mile, he was passed by Distinctive B into the stretch, re-rallied along the inside into the stretch, and pulled clear towards the wire to win by a half-length. The race was flattered when the fourth-place finisher, American Pastime, came back to win Allowance N2X earning improved 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The pace was enervating earning above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+11, +10) good enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figure. Moreover, the half mile split is the fastest of the 30 races at 6-½ furlongs this meet. Two of the four pace rivals weaken badly to finish 6th beaten 8-½ lengths and 8th beaten 14-¼ lengths. Lastly, Blame it on the Law was the only horse on July 21 card that won pressing the pace from the inside as the four other sprints on that program were won by horses off the pace running on the outside paths noted by the blue TimeformUS race rating box. He has come back with four works including five furlong move from the gate on August 13 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Retains speed.” He should get a good trip either on the lead as the speed of this field or in a pace pressing role outside of Mr. Hinx and Moe Candy. In a race that is wide open Blame It on the Law is good alternative with his affinity for the Del Mar main track and pace scenario that should sit his pace pressing running style at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (5) BLAMEITONTHELAW at 6-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-4, 5-10. Small reverse.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three-year olds and upward
CHIDAMAC (#6, 8-1) is a horse that is fresh face in a race where the majority of the field exit the July 28 maiden race won by Kings River King. The rest of the field behind that winner are filled with trail maidens as they are winless in nineteen starts and six of those entrants return in the same race I am taking a stand against them all with the new face Chidamac. This son of McCann’s Mojave was sent off at 30-1 in his career debut and he had little pedigree to suggest that sprinting on the main track is what he wanted to do. His dam, Chichim, won seven of twenty-six starts with three of her wins sprinting on the main track and three of her wins sprinting on the turf. McCann’s Mojave was route horse that won the Sunshine Millions Classic, All American, and Berkeley Handicaps at a distance of ground. Also, trainer Matthew Chew does not crack his horses to win in their career debut preferring to give his starters a race. In the past five years, he is winless in thirteen starts with two of them finishing in the money. With a pedigree that lacked win early and trainer that does not crack them early to win, one can understand why Chidamac was 30-1 at post time and he actually ran a respectable race to split the field in fifth behind gate to wire first time starter winner Raul Rosas who won by five and three-quarter lengths earning an excellent 87 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the HR Trip Notes, Chidamac “hopped at the break and bumped a foe to spot the field three lengths, settled in last after his rider lost and regained his iron, well back in the far turn, grinded home past spent foes in the lane.” The validity of that figure has already been confirmed. The seventh-place finisher, Make it a Triple, improved seventeen Beyer Speed Figure points to break his maiden for $20,000 with a 75 Beyer Speed Figure. The second-and-eighth place finishers, Vegas Vic and Tule Fog, improved fifteen and twenty-one Beyer Speed Figure points respectively finishing second and third respectively in their next start behind Morgan S on August 18 earning 89 and 76 Beyer Speed Figures. He has bounced back with three works including his last two moves on August 12 and August 19 that really caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington that raved about them giving it a B including the former work where he was under a “light hold late outside next out 2 year old winner Bob's All In finishing with some left late. Should like any added distance.” Thiago Pereria remains aboard for his second career start and I expect major improvement on the surface switch and stretch out to two turns at a nice price.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (6) CHIDAMAC at 6-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-9, 6-10. Small reverse for each.
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