Collected Looks To Grab the Spotlight in the Pacific Classic

BEST BETS:

COLLECTED (Race 8, 5-2)

BIG LEAGUE (Race 9, 8-1)

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and up

ICY STREET (#9, 12-1) is one of seven horses that exit maiden races on this turf course during opening week and this Street Boss colt finished fifth beaten four and three-quarter lengths behind Ample Sufficiency. However, this chestnut colt endured a terrible trip that the trouble comment “Clipped heels, chute,” does not describe the amount of trouble he had and this John Sadler trainee will be well suited returning in this one-mile maiden event on the turf. He made his career debut on April 8 at Santa Anita in a seven furlong sprint and he took advantage of a very fast early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (+8, +9) to rally from next to last to be a clear second behind the gate to wire winner Who’s Hot. This maiden race was not particularly strong one as it produced one winner, one second-place finisher, one-third place finisher, and four others that returned to finish off the board in their next start. He returned from a one-hundred day layoff on July 22 trying the grass and two turns for the first time and had average pedigree for the switch in surface. The dam Icy Pi was a maiden in nine starts and never tried the turf. She produced two winners from as many starters but none tried the turf. Street Boss has produced 15% turf route winners in the past five years and the jury was out if Icy Street would handle the surface switch. He managed to defeat more than half the field to the wire but according to Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Note writer, Icy Street was best. In that race, he “took an awkward step coming out of the chute, shuffled back along the rail down the backstretch, angled off heels at the top of the lane, dove to the inside, stopped at a pivotal moment, dove to the rail, finished with good energy, huge gallop out.” The HR Trip Note writer concluded his note of Icy Street saying “nightmare trip for the Sadler trainee who has some ability.”  He had a very fast pace to rally into as the three horse battle for the early lead on July 22 earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures for the first six furlongs but he should get another contested pace in his second start on the turf as Aussie Fox, Cascade Rock, and Potent have either pressed or were forwardly placed close to red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their recent start. He gets rider switch to Tyler Baze who from his thirteen wins this meet, seven were on the turf and has worked in respectable fashion since with a pair of B- moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. With clear sailing this colt can spring the major upset in what will start my day at Del Mar.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN on bet (9) ICY STREET at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 9-5, 9-6, 9-8. Small reverse for each.

Race 7: Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, 1-½ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up

ITSINTHEPOST (#5, 4-1) is a horse that shares a similar profile to my selection in the Del Mar Oaks where his last two races indicate this Jeff Mullins might be tailing off. However, his last two defeats were much better than it would appear on paper as either pace or riding tactics compromise his chances. When this American Post gelding returned from a forty-nine day layoff on March 25 he reeled off two straight victories defeating next time out winners Ashley Luv Sugar, Liam the Charmer, and Inordinate in the Grade 2 San Luis Rey Stakes. He shipped to Keeneland for the Grade 3 Elkhorn Stakes on April 22 and he was able to parlay a perfect stalking trip en route to a length and a quarter victory matching his career best 100 Beyer Speed Figure and earning a career best 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The validity of those speed figures was confirmed when the third-place finisher, Bigger Picture, came back to win the Grade 1 United Nations and ran second beaten a neck in the Grade 2 Bowling Green earning Beyer Speed Figures of 103 and 104 respectively. The seventh-place finisher, Chocolate Ride, came back to win Allowance N3X and was second in the Grade 2 Wise Dan earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 98 respectively. He was sent off as the 9-5 post time favorite in the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham Handicap on May 28 and was victimized by a wide journey. He was hard to settle crossing the wire for the first time and was four wide into and around the first turn between rivals. The bay gelding was three wide on the backstretch chasing longshot pacesetter Patentar, began to be under a drive midway on the far turn, made one last run at mid-stretch, and finally weaken as he was out finished for the minor placings. This defeat did not dampen his connections faith in their gelding as he shipped to Monmouth Park for the Grade 1 United Nations and questionable riding tactics by jockey Tyler Baze resulted in defeat. Instead of tracking the favorite, Beach Patrol, those two engaged in a heated pace battle where at one point they opened up a four and half-length lead on the next closest horse through enervating fractions that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite this fast pace, It’s In the Post actually held on well to mid-stretch before getting swallowed up by the off the pace runners as the first, second, and fourth-place finishers rallied from ninth, fifth, and seventh after the first six furlongs. This Grade 1 has returned to be quite productive as the aforementioned winner ran second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green and the beaten favorite and pace rival Beach Patrol returned to win Grade 1 Arlington Million with a comparable 101 Beyer Speed Figure. The 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned in that defeat is tied with the second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field and with his tactical speed should get a great trip. One dimensional front-runner Mr. Roary will go to the front end closely tracked or pressed by longshot Prime Attraction as those two enter this field with the highest TimeformUS early pace ratings. He has returned to work in superb fashion according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with back to back B+ moves including monster six furlong move in 1:16 flat on August 13 that Andy stated “Again breezed along home in 51.3, 116.1 and again was full of beans on his spirited gallop with Tyler up. Strong as ever.” Jockey Tyler Baze should place this gelding in a similar spot to his Elkhorn victory three starts ago and a repeat of that performance stamps him as major contender to spring minor upset as this brief hiatus is similar to the one he had going into San Luis Rey in March.   

Wagering Strategy:

WIN on bet (5) ITSINTHEPOST at 5-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-8, 5-10. Small reverse for each.

Race 8: Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic, 1-¼ Miles, Three-year olds and up

COLLECTED (#2, 5-2) is in the best form of his career and has been specifically pointed for the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic after his three dominating victories at Santa Anita where he won by a combined margin of twenty-one and half-lengths. Not only is the margin of victory amazing but the manner he accomplished those victories showed he not a one-dimensional front runner. The son of City Zip made his four-year old seasonal debut off a 315-day layoff in the Santana Mile on April 1 and showed the ability to rate as he sat in fourth early behind very fast pace three-horse battle for the early lead among longshots Magic Mark, Clever Royal, and post time favorite Dortmund through fast fractions for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures (+15, +8). He made four wide rush to take over the lead from the exhausted leaders Magic Mark and Dortmund and continued straight and strong to the wire to win by three and three-quarter lengths earning his first triple digit Beyer Speed Figure of 101 in the process. He parlayed moderate early pace prompting trip and speed bias en route to another three and three-quarter length romp in the Grade 2 Californian on April 22 but was held out of the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita when he was not training to the satisfaction of his trainer Bob Baffert. That was a blessing in disguise for this four-year old chestnut as he returned sixty-three days later in the Grade 3 Precisionist on June 24 and delivered a Grade 1 caliber performance that not only was visually impressive but also from a time perspective. In that race he sat off the pacesetter Donworth through moderate early fractions for half mile in 46.80 seconds. The pace began to quicken into and around the far turn where Collected put away his pace rival, opened up a large lead into mid-stretch, and continued to widen all the way to the wire to win by fourteen-lengths. From a speed figure standpoint it was one of the fastest route races in 2017. The 111 Beyer Speed Figure is the fifth highest this year at one mile of more and his 135 TimeformUS Speed Figure is tied for the fourth highest speed figure this year. His career best Beyer Speed Figure was confirmed when the third-and-fourth place finishers, Accelerate and Donworth, came back to finish first-and-second in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 109 and 97 which are twenty-three and eleven-point improvement respectively from their previous start. Now undefeated in six starts on a fast main track, he has returned with four works over the Del Mar main track but none more impressive than his six furlong move in 1:11 ⅖ on August 1 where he clearly shows an affinity for this surface (August 1 - Collected Work) and received a stellar B+ from National Turf’s Andy Harrington. From post position two with his stablemate Arrogate drawn in post position eight, I look for jockey Martin Garcia to either go for the front to take the race to the field or settle just off Accelerate if the latter elects for gate to wire tactics. In the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert has won at amazing 55% (11/6-2-2) with his starters that won their last start in a main track route in a Graded Stakes and if ever Collected will beat his stablemate it will be in Del Mar’s signature race as my BEST BET on the card.

Wagering Strategy:

No straight wagers on this race. Instead I am going to map out my only horizontal wager on the card. The Pick 3 wagers are below.

Pick 3: 2 w/ 11 w/ 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $5 = $20

Pick 3: 2 w/ 10 w/ 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $4 = $16

Pick 3: 8 w/ 10, 11 / 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 2 x 4 x $2 = $16

Race 9: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 6 Furlongs, Three-year olds and up

BIG LEAGUE (#11, 8-1) is higher priced of my two choices as it was between him and Edwards Going Left but Speightstown gelding ran too good to lose on the second weekend of the Del Mar where he was run down by the opportunistic stalking midpack winner Tavasco Road. He ran respectable in the first of his two previous main track races this year. He returned from a 210-day layoff on April 16 in the San Pedro Stakes and he finished third beaten 8-½ lengths but had a track bias that worked against him. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, the dark bay or brown gelding “prompted the pace four-deep, outrun around the far turn, dropped back three-wide into the lane, distant third.” He was parked wide every step over a main track that strongly favored inside lanes as the winner Aristocratic led gate to wire racing on the good inside lanes throughout. He switched surfaces to the turf on May 13 in the Desert Code Stakes and was used as rabbit to ensure fast fractions earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and weaken to finish ahead of only one horse in a race where his stable mate, Arms Runner, rallied from fourth. He returned to the main track and dropped in class to Allowance N1X on the main track on June 17 versus older rivals and defeated only one horse beaten 5-lengths behind the gate to wire winner Blue Anchor. After this debacle, he dropped into a claiming race for the first time facing his own age group on July 29 stretching out to seven furlongs for the first time and this dark bay or brown gelding won the early pace battle only to lose the opportunistic winner. The HR Trip Note writer stated he “dashed to the front from the wide draw, traded blows on a suicidal pace, put away his pace foe in the far turn, came into the lane with the lead, bore out midstretch, impeded a foe, battled to the wire, second best.” The opening quarter of 22.16 and half mile of 44.50 was the fastest fractions from the first eight races at seven furlongs this meet good enough to earn him above average Moss Pace Figures (+23, +18) and of course earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and earned the field’s top last race 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. My personal note about Big League after this defeat was “he would benefit from the cut back to six furlongs.” He not only shortens up a furlong in distance but also returns in a spot where he cannot be claimed a positive sign. Drawn ideally outside for pace prompting trip or might be sent for the early lead as the speed of the speed in this field. Kent Desormeaux takes over in the irons and he is my second BEST BET on the card at a juicy 8-1 on the morning line.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN on (11) BIG LEAGUE at 5-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 11-10. Small reverse.

Small Exactas: 11-8, 11-9. No reverse.

Race 10: Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year old Fillies

DREAM DANCING (#10, 6-1) is a filly that appears to be tailing off as she ships to Del Mar for that elusive Grade 1 victory. She has been beaten a combined nine and a quarter lengths in her last two starts and has not visited the Winner’s Circle since March when she captured the Grade 3 Here Comes the Bride Stakes at Gulfstream Park. A closer inspection of her two defeats suggest that it was circumstances that results in her two losses and under different ride and or pace scenario then this daughter of Tapit can spring the minor upset for trainer Mark Casse for his long time owner John Oxley. She rallied to be second beaten only a half-length behind her stable mate La Coronel in the Grade 3 Edgewood on May 5 where she defeated subsequent next out winners Sweeping Paddy, Journey Home, and Youngest Daughter. In addition to those three winners, Proctor’s Ledge came back two starts later to win the Grade 3 Lake George on opening day at Saratoga. She was bet down to the 3-1 second choice behind the favored winner New Money Honey in the Grade 3 Wonder Again on June 8 and this stalker that prefers to sit in mid-pack had to abandon her traditional running style because of the lack of early speed in the Wonder Again. She found herself pressing the pace two wide for the majority of the race outside of the favored winner, made her run to challenge the leader into the stretch, but flattened out in the lane switching to her left lead towards the wire to be a clear third behind a winner that returned to win the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. Next she ran in the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes at Saratoga where she was bothered by an outermost post and wide journey from start to finish. She was wrangled back next to last racing two wide on the first turn and down the backstretch as the pacesetter Chubby Star was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures through the first six furlongs. The gray or roan filly made a sweeping five wide run to get into contention leaving the backstretch and around the far turn but lost her punch in the stretch finishing five and three-quarter lengths behind Proctor’s Ledge. Trakus stated that this filly covered nineteen more feet than the winner and therefore one can excuse this poor effort to a lack of early speed and wide trip. She has bounced back with two more works over the Saratoga turf training track including working heads up with stablemate La Coronel on August 11 where they finished together (Aug. 11 Dream Dancing Work) . The lack of early pace she encountered will be present with five horses in this race having triple digit TimeformUS early pace ratings in a situation that favors horses off the pace. Julien Leparoux remains aboard and I look for her to take back towards the rear of the field behind very fast pace and make that patent late run as she is only one of two horses in this race next to Beau Recall that has a triple digit TimeformUS late pace rating this the field.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (10) DREAM DANCING at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 10-5, 10-6, 10-11. Small reverse for each.

Turf Racing and Return of Arrogate Highlight Saturday's Del Mar Card

Race 6:

I have a special place in my heart for horses that might not be very well bred but run their hearts out every time they step to the race track. Howdy Kingkowboy (#11) is 20-1 on the morning line but TimeformUS pace projector has him clear on an uncontested lead going into the backstretch and if left alone he can be a very tough rival to run down in the stretch. He was the beaten favorite in the Tempe Handicap on March 11 but did everything right but win where he won the early pace battle but lost the war. In that race he battled between Cherokee Legacy and Factored In into and around the first turn and did not get any breather down the backstretch Factored In continued to press him all the way around the final turn. The Kodiak Kowboy gelding finally put away that rival into the stretch and opened up a 1-½ length lead at mid-stretch but was caught right on the wire by He’s Munnie who rallied from perfect spot in fifth after a half mile to win by a head. Howdy Kingkowboy ran the better race winning the early pace battle that saw his two speed rivals weaken to finish 4th and 7th and only caught on the wire by a perfect trip stalking winner. His next turf race happen on June 3 at Santa Anita Park where he was up for a claiming price of $50,000 and even though he only won by three-quarters of a length he showed so much fight and determination to win that it was impressive watching the race replay. He showed his typical early speed to battle head and head with Giro Candito early with Squared Squared tracking that speed duel in third early. He was able to shake loose from those two speed rivals and drifted out past the quarter pole as the two favorites ranged up from off the pace to challenge Howdy Kingkowboy and actually poked their head in front but this gelding refused to quit easily battling back between rivals to win by three-quarters of a length and galloping out well in front after the wire. The two pace rivals nearest the winner weaken badly to finish fourth and fifth as this effort is better than any speed figure would indicate because he showed determination after an intense speed duel early. He continues to hold his speed according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington who assigned him a B- for his previous two works both with Bryan Pena aboard who is back in the irons. He will be in front going into the first turn and if he can somehow ration his speed effectively the nine furlong event he could prove tough rival to run down at what should be boxcar odds.

Race 8:

This race is filled with plenty of horses that are either mid-pack, plodders, and closers. This race only has two real confirmed speed types in Khaleesi and our top pick Ok Doll (#11) at 9-2 on the morning line. The daughter of First Samurai exits a third-place finish back on January 29 where her jockey Rafael Bejarano rated her too much behind a very slow early pace won by the pace pressing winner Peach Cove in a race that produced TWO next time out winners. The race that sticks out and where she should enjoy a similar trip as today was back on December 29, 2016 at Santa Anita at today’s one-mile distance where she was able to use her early speed to track the pacesetter Nine Point Nine early and wear that rival down to win by three-quarters of a length racing on her wrong lead to the wire. She will make her first start off a 174-day layoff but note she ran well twice off layoffs. She was second beaten a half-length at odds of 15-1 returning off a 78-day layoff in her only start over the Del Mar turf course on August 27, 2016 where she led at each call but was caught right on the wire by the favored stalker Nodiac and she returned from a 69-day layoff when she won that aforementioned December 29 race over Nine Point Nine. TimeformUS pace projector has her pressing the pace outside of Khaleesi and she will get first run on the mid-pack and closing types for winning trainer and jockey combination of Richard Baltas and jockey Rafael Bejarano.

Race 10:

My stand against in this race is the morning line favorite Lucky Soul (#7). The son of Lookin At Lucky finished a fast closing fourth and galloped out in the front of the entire field in his debut on April 20 behind subsequent stakes winner Arms Runner. He stretched out to two turns on May 27 and finished a fast closing third beaten a head behind the last to first winner Miner’s Light. Despite that margin of defeat, that race has not returned to be a productive one as only the fifth-place finisher, Oregon, came back to win with the rest of the field producing one third-place finish and six others came back to finish off the board in there next race. His lack of early speed is a concern because this race only has confirmed front runner and that pacesetter is the selection in this field along with another horse exceptionally bred to run long on the grass.

Ready Aim (#9) will now stretch out to two turns after preparing for this event in two sprints at Santa Anita. The son of Into Mischief has run sneaky well in each of his two starts and should show his form on the stretch out to two turns and trying turf for the first time. He finished seventh beating three horses to the wire in his debut on May 6 run over a wet fast sealed main track where he ran greenly but showed ability in defeat. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, he “raced at the tail of the field, ran in spots while under a drive heading into the far turn, rallied five-wide into the stretch, flattened out mid-stretch.” That maiden race returned to be a monster “key” race where the winner The Critical Way returned win the state-bred Danzig Stakes at Penn National with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, fifth-place finisher Gato Del Oro returned to break his maiden with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and the sixth-place finisher The Party Factor returned to break his maiden with a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. The Richard Mandella trainee “ran in spots” in his debut and in order to correct this issue the blinkers were added in his second start on June 10 and he ran into another “key” race field where he showed signs of form. In that race, HR Trip Notes commented this colt “Showed pace from the outside near the front, sitting just off heading into the turn, making a brief challenge in the turn, with the run petering out in mid-stretch.” The race earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and that speed figure was validated when the winner Gato Del Oro returned to win Allowance N1X on opening day with 93 Beyer Speed Figure and the sixth-place finisher dropped for a $75,000 claiming price and won with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure as the two horses that vied for the lead with Ready Aim already returned to win their next start. He is a half brother to two turf winners including full sister Forever Famous who won one of seven starts on the turf.  Formulator Fact: In the past five years, trainer Richard Mandella wins at gaudy 36% (11/4-2-3) with his starters switching from dirt to turf and stretching from sprint to route in a maiden special weight event. He turned in crisp five furlong move here at Del Mar on July 17 in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Last 4f with a maiden mate working steady in 48.3. Should like any added distance.” TimeformUS pace projector has this bay colt loose on an uncontested early lead and on the stretch out should be a tough rival to run down under Drayden Van Dyke.

Borg (#5) is the one horse that since his debut on May 6 I have patiently waited for this colt to stretch out to two turns and try grass because his pedigree is strictly about running long on the grass. He managed to run very well to finish fourth beaten five-lengths in his career debut on May 6 where the HR Trip Notes commented “traveled at the tail of the field, niggled at to keep pace down the backstretch, angled off the rail into the stretch, weaved through traffic in the lane, dove to the rail, flew home on his wrong lead, galloped out powerfully.” This was the same “key” race that Ready Aim exits that produced THREE next time out winners. Even though I knew he would be best running long on the grass, he was top choice for me in his second career start on July 1 in his first race for trainer Simon Callaghan and he managed to split the field finishing fourth behind the impressive gate to wire winner Pavel who romped with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. This son of Candy Ride was the only horse finishing in the stretch as the first three finishers ran 1st, 3rd, and 2nd after a half mile and this was a respectable performance in defeat. He now will stretch out to two turns and try grass for the first time and based on his breeding this should pose no issue. His dam She’s Sensational won 6 of 16 starts but was 4 for 8 routing on the turf. Moreover, she produced Our Way who won 4 of 12 starts on the turf thus Borg should have no problem stretching out or switching to the turf for the first time. In addition, he has come back to breeze very well according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with a half mile spin in 49 ⅖ that Andy gave a B stating “Breezed fluidly out of last try going the last 1/4 in 24.0. Sure seems much better than record so far.” He should find himself tracking the pace in comfortable spot in the first flight behind expected pacesetter Ready Aim and attempt to run down that rival in the stretch as those two are my top choices in the finale.

Travers Stakes Highlights FANTASTIC Card at Saratoga

Race 6: Gr. 1 Personal Ensign, 1-⅛ Miles, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS sees the first of six consecutive Gr. 1 races favoring horses on or near the early lead. Paid Up Subscriber will jump out of the gate to go for the early lead but most likely will sit outside of the flank of Curalina and sit second as those two will establish an anticipated tepid early pace. From the three other horses in this field, I’m A Chatterbox will be in position behind this soft early pace in third with Forever Unbridled and Curlina not too far behind in the rear of what looks to be a bunched field.

Paid Up Subscriber has the field’s highest TimeformUS early pace rating in the field and I’m A Chatterbox and Forever Unbridled are tied with the highest TimeformUS late pace rating in this field. Morning line favorite Curalina enters this field with the highest 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field.

My play against in this field belongs to Cavorting. She is undefeated in three starts here at Saratoga but those were at distances from six furlongs to seven furlongs. She enters this race with consecutive blowout victories in the Gr. 2 Ruffian and Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps both at Belmont Park where she had ideal circumstances en route to her emphatic victories. In the Gr. 2 Ruffian Stakes she enjoyed perfect trip sitting just off a two horse speed duel between Carrumba and Calamity Kate through a very slow early pace (designated by blue TimeformUS pace figures), she engage the leaders with a four wide move on the sweeping far turn at Belmont Park to take over the lead into the stretch, and won going away in a field where the four horses that she beat returned to run 3rd, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd in their next start. In the Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps on June 11 she rallied from second to last in a seven horse field to blow past the exhausted leaders to win by two and half lengths in a pace collapse that saw the first three finishers rally from 6th, 7th, and 5th after the first half mile. In addition to the pace collapse she made her rally with the grain of main track favoring outside closers (designed by blue TimeformUS Race Rating box). Her TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 and 115 are below some of the best in this field and she will have to prove herself around two turns at Saratoga and with pace scenario not favoring her closing style.

She is projected to get a great trip off a early pace that will favor horses on or near the lead, Paid Up Subscriber (#4) is in career best form having finished in the money in all four starts with two victories at Churchill Downs with her most significant victory being the Gr. 2 Fleur de Lis Handicap on June 18 where she enjoyed a perfect trip to her first Graded Stakes victory. The daughter of Candy Ride was forwardly placed along the rail behind the speed duel between Ahh Chocolate and Big Book through a moderate early pace. She continued saving ground on the far turn, found room between rivals into the stretch, split horses, took over the lead, and kicked away Brooklynsway to win by three-lengths earning career best 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. The Al Stall Jr. trainee returned in the Gr. 1 Delaware Oaks where she was sent off as the 9-5 second choice behind I’m A Chatterbox and she was badly hampered at the break. Once the gates opened, I’m A Chatterbox took a left hand swerve towards the two longest priced horses in the field, Milaya and Money’soncharlotte and that swerve cause a domino effect as Paid Up Subscriber was bumped hard from her hind end and was off slowly. She recovered to track the early the pace prompted by the eventual winner, continuing tracking a slow early pace on the far turn (blue coded pace figures), and rallied as well as she could under the circumstances to finish second beaten 2-¼ lengths. She will get her rematch with her aforementioned rival and with a clean start she can lead or sit just off Curlina early and get the jump on closers such as Forever Unbridled and Cavorting. She did win over this Saratoga main track as three-year old and has been based here since shipping from Churchill Downs in early July. Ricardo Santana Jr. who was aboard for her last two starts is back in the irons and she is the longest price of my three contenders in this field.

In my exotics I will recommend using just two horses. The morning line favorite, Curalina (#2), could not help but get a great trip off an early pace scenario that will favor horses on or near the early lead per TimeformUS pace projector. The daughter of Curlin was compromised as the beaten favorite in the Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps where she tracked an moderate early pace, put in her bid, and weaken in a race that completely fell apart for the closers as the first three finishers rallied from 6th, 7th, and 5th early. She enjoyed ideal conditions in the Gr. 3 Shuvee on July 31 recording her first victory where she crossed the finish line in first here at Saratoga as her previous victory was with an aid of disqualification. She prompted a very slow early pace outside of the pacesetter Carrumba early, took over the lead on the far turn, and drew off to win by 9-¼ lengths earning career best 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She figures to enjoy another similar trip as her main rivals are either stalkers and closers with Curalina and our top choice Paid Up Subscriber enjoying a comfortable trip on or near moderate to slow early fractions. Forever Unbridled (#3) rallied with the race shape to finish second in the Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps on June 11 but she is a proven two turn router having won the Gr. 1 Apple Blossom on April 15 at Oaklawn Park. In that race she was forwardly placed close to a very slow early pace established by dueling leaders Streamline and the favorite Untapable early. The Unbridled’s Song filly made three wide move into that slow pace to battle with those two pace rivals, shook clear of Streamline in deep stretch, and kicked clear to win by 2-¼ lengths earning career best 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Joel Rosario who has a win and second from two starts with this filly is back aboard and look for a similar trip as the Apple Blossom Stakes.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) Paid Up Subscriber

Exacta box key: 4 / 2, 3

Race 7: Gr. 1 Ballerina, 7 Furlongs, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector projects that this race will unfold at an early pace that will favor horses on or near the early lead. Linda Linda and longshot Sarah Sis the probable two horses that will go to the early lead. Tracking that pair in third will be Paulasilverlining. In behind this trio of early leaders include By the Moon, the three-year old Carina Mia, and Haveyougoneaway in that second flight. Sheer Drama, Spelling Again, and Wavell Avenue will drop back towards the rear of the field as Birdonthewire will be lagging in last hoping for a complete pace meltdown for her late kick.

The morning line favorite Wavell Avenue returned to her best form and visited the Winner’s Circle for the first time this year in the Shine Again Stakes on August 3 a race where she finished fourth beaten five-lengths last year. In that race, she recorded the co-highest 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure with Carina Mia. However the conditions that each horse earned their respective speed figure was different and Wavell Avenue earned that speed figure under ideal circumstances. She was not asked for early speed as she trailed the field in eighth early behind a very quick early pace (red designated TimeformUS pace figures) set by West Coast Chick chased by Momameamaria, Promise Me Silver, and Linda Linda. Jockey Joel Rosario rode the rail saving every inch of ground on the turn before angling her outside for a clear path at the 1/8th pole, and won going away. The circumstances today are a lot different as there is not a plethora of early speed signed on and she will have to face an accomplished three-year old filly and a rival that will get the jump on her in the stretch.

After reviewing this race my plan was going to single one horse but I am going to use two horses as my co-top choices in the Ballerina Stakes. Carina Mia (#9) enters this race into career top form having finished in the money in three of four starts this year and her lone off the board finish in the Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes was actually a good effort in defeat where she and her pace rival Rachel Valentina battled head and head through very fast early fractions racing along the inside and stayed on gamely to mid-stretch and tired to finish fourth beaten 2-½ lengths over a main track that strongly favored closers (designated by blue TimeformUS Race Rating box). She turned back to score a visually impressive victory in the Gr. 2 Eight Belles at today’s seven furlong distance and she turned the tables on Cathryn Sophia in the Gr. 1 Acorn Stakes. She broke with the field and raced in traffic between rivals behind a quick early pace established by three-horse speed duel among Paola Queen, Cathryn Sophia, and Go Maggie Go. Jockey Julien Leparoux got her to relax towards the rear of the field behind that three horse speed duel. She moved up between rivals into the far turn, angled four wide with dead aim on the leaders into the stretch, and kick past Cathryn Sophia to win by 1-¼ lengths earning a then career best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when Off the Tracks returned to win the Gr. 1 Mother Goose on July 2 with a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure and fifth-place finisher Paola Queen returned on August 6 to win the Gr. 1 Test. She stretched back out to 1-⅛ miles in the Gr. 1 Coaching Club American Oaks on July 24 and she earned co-highest last race 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure in defeat behind the now ten-for-ten champion Songbird. In that race, she sat just off the pacesetter Songbird through moderate half mile. She made her bid to challenge the favored winner into the turn and actually poked her head in front approaching the quarter pole but Songbird turned her away and she was second best finishing four lengths in front of the rest of the field. The form of that race was confirmed when the winner returned to win Gr. 1 Alabama Stakes with 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She returns to her preferred one turn trip and she has enough tactical speed where she will be placed in behind the trio of leaders Linda Linda, Sarah Sis, and Paulasilverlining and if she reproduces any of her two wins this year then the rest of the field is running for second.

My co-top choice in my horizontal wagers is Paulasilverlining (#3). The daughter of Ghostzapper is in top form finishing first or second in all five starts this year with three victories but the one victory that stamped her as my co-top choice with Carina Mia is her 3-¾ length romp in the Gr. 3 Distaff Handicap at today’s seven furlong distance. In that race she broke running to go for the early lead but jockey Jose Ortiz decided to allow 50-1 longshot Madam Aamoura to go for the early lead and that rival was allowed to set a very slow early pace for the first quarter of a mile. She moved up to take over the lead into the stretch and kicked away to win by 3-¾ lengths while drifting out and in towards the wire earning a career best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The validity of that figure was confirmed when FOUR horses behind her came back to win their next start making the Gr. 3 Distaff Handicap a monster “key” race. She came back to win the Gr. 3 Vagrancy at Belmont Park handily as the 1-5 post time favorite and she returned from a sixty-seven day layoff in the Gr. 2 Honorable Miss the traditional prep for the Gr. 1 Ballerina and she ran a winning race in defeat getting wore down by the opportunistic closer Haveyougoneaway by a neck. Breaking from the rail, she broke running and was part of the contested battle for the lead but was eased back off a four-horse speed duel as they tore through a quick 22.01 second opening quarter of a mile. She moved up closer to challenge for the lead around the far turn, opened up a clear lead at mid-stretch, and was caught to lose by a neck earning 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure which ranks as the second highest last race speed figure in this field. The Michelle Nevin trainee returns to her preferred seven furlong distance and should get ideal trip in a race that will favor horses on or near the early lead. Linda Linda and longshot Sarah Sis will vie for the early lead and expect Jose Ortiz to track that duo in third early before making her bid for the lead on the far turn. After going off as the favorite in three of her last four starts, Paulasilverlining should be a hint of a price.

In my exotics underneath those two horses I will use two horses. The first is Gr. 1 winner Sheer Drama (#4). The daughter of Burning Roma defeated three Gr. 1 winners in the Gr. 1 Madison at Keeneland where she had a perfect trip tracking a blistering four-horse speed duel along the rail, eased outside for a clear run into the stretch, and held off the late charge of Stopchargingmaria to win by a neck. Despite the caliber of field, the race did not returned to be productive as eight horses returned to lose their next start with only two of them finishing third and her victory in the Madison was complete pace meltdown with the first four finishers rallied from 7th, 5th, 10th, and 11th early. She returns off a 77 day layoff for trainer David Fawkes who has won at 18% clip (3-for-17) the past five years with dirt sprinters returning off a layoff of 57 to 96 days. The main knock is the race favors horses on or near the front end and she will most likely not see the pace meltdown she took advantage of when she won the Madison back in April. My knockout longshot is Linda Linda (#6) for the always dangerous Ignacio Correas IV barn. She was a Group 1 winner and placed in her native Chile and she made her North American debut in the Shining Again Stakes where she chased that fast early pace (red coded pace figure) set by West Coast Chick chased by Momameamaria and Promise Me Silver and though no match for either the opportunistic closer Wavell Avenue or second place finisher Momameamaria she stayed on to finish third. She will make her second start off the layoff and finds a field not loaded with plethora of early speed and make her speed last longer with that race under her belt and less speed in this field.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (3) Paulasilverlining

Exacta Box: 3-9

Small Exactas: 3-4, 3-6, 9-4, 9-6

Race 8: Gr. 1 King’s Bishop, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a fast early pace that could set it up for the horses coming from off the pace. The Bob Baffert trained Jazzy Times will go straight having pressed the pace or being on the lead in all four starts and will be joined for the early lead by Woodbine shipper Noholdingback Bear with the other Bob Baffert trainee DreFong in third chasing that duel prompting the pace in the clear. Fish Trappe Road, Summer Revolution, and Bird Song will be in the first flight behind the trio of leaders. In mid-pack look for Economic Model, Tale of S’avall, and Star Hill along with Mohaymen, Mind Your Biscuits, Tom’s Ready, and Rated R Superstar in the rear hoping for the fast pace to collapse for their late kick to be effective.

Noholdingback Bear has the highest TimeformUS early pace rating in the field joined in second by DreFong. If a fast pace does collapse expect Mohaymen with the field’s highest TimeformUS late pace rating to be charging from well back. DreFong owns the highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 127 in the field.

My play against in this race is Mohaymen who will get plenty of attention for exiting the Kentucky Derby two races back and comes off a fourth-place finish in the Jim Dandy Stakes last time out. The Tapit colt won his first five starts but has been plagued by excuses in his last three defeats. He did not handle the surface and had a very wide trip when he finished fourth in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby behind subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. In the Kentucky Derby, he lagged in mid-pack behind a very fast early pace (designated red TimeformUS pace figures) and put in a wide rally to miss third by a head. He was sent off as the favorite for the Jim Dandy but lost his best chance when he stumbled at the start and ran around the race track behind the gate to wire winner Laoban. He has not been one turn since his Nashua victory as a two-year old and there are others in this field accomplished around one turn or a middle distance that makes Mohaymen a play against in the King’s Bishop.

I have always been high on DreFong (#13) ever since he was bet down to the favorite in his career debut last October at Santa Anita. He ran greenly that day breaking slowly from the gate and then ducked in sharply in deep stretch as he attempted to make his move for the lead. He put it all together in his second career start breaking his maiden by 9-½ lengths over an overmatched field of maidens. The son of Gio Ponti has been a stronger and faster race horse as three-year old and this race has been the goal for this $450,000 Keeneland September 2014 yearling purchase. He made his three-year old debut off a 198 day layoff and could not have been more impressive. He was sent off as the 2-1 second choice where he battled for the early lead between Gutsy Ruler and Saint of Saints through a fast opening quarter in 21.43 seconds. He put away the latter and dueled inside with the former around the far turn through a 44.12 second half mile, easily shook clear of that rival, and drew off to win by 3-½ lengths earning a then career best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This speed figure was earned in a legit manner as his two pace rivals he dueled with tired to finish 4th beaten 5-½ lengths and 6th and last beaten 12-¾ lengths. The Bob Baffert trainee returned 35-days later in a Allowance N2X on July 4 and showed he is not a one dimensional speed horse but can successfully rate and finish. In that race, he was out-sprinted for the early lead by the very fast Guy Code who set a blazing 21.30 second opening quarter of a mile. With room along the rail, Mike Smith moved DreFong along the rail to grab the lead after a 43.80 second half mile and was ridden out to the wire to win by 5-¼ lengths earning the field’s best last race 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That speed figure is five and six points better than the second and third best last race speed figures in this field and it was validated when the third-place finisher, Why Two, came back to win Allowance N2X and Green Flash Handicap going five furlongs on the turf with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 113 and 119 respectively. The Allowance to a Grade 1 sprint is no issue because trainer Bob Baffert has successfully scored with this angle in the past. Secret Circle (November 2, 2013, $2.50-1) won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint after a prep in a Allowance race and most recently Lord Nelson (June 25, 2016, $2.10-1) won the Gr. 1 Triple Bend after a prep in a Allowance race. He was visually impressive working six furlongs from the gate in 1:12 flat on August 14 in company with stablemate Dortmund that easily could have received an A-. Drawn outside jockey Mike Smith can see what the other two main speed rivals, Jazzy Times and Noholdingback Bear, do before making his move for the lead. He was going to be my BEST BET before the post position draw and now will be my Pick 6 single with Flintshire in the Gr. 1 Sword Dancer later on the card.

In my exotics I will look at four horses in what will be a straight exacta. In no order of preference, Economic Model (#1) has finished first or second in five of six starts with his only bad race happen in the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 12 where he tracked modest early pace along the rail on a day when the outside paths were best. In his most recent start he earned a career best 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Gr. 3 Dwyer on July 9 when he stalked the pace along the rail and continued riding the rail into the stretch where he held on for second. This performance is better than looked because he ran on the rail on a day when the outside paths were best. He must overcome the rail draw in full field of thirteen. Fish Trappe Road (#2) was clearly best when last seen at this seven furlong distance in the Gr. 2 Woody Stephens on June 11 where he forced a blazing early pace set by Justin Squared (red coded pace figures), shook that rival, lead, and was caught by the opportunistic closer Tom’s Ready towards the wire at 25-1. Last time out he enjoyed a comfortable trip tracking a moderate early pace along the good outside paths and kicked away with a perfect trip. Another horse that must overcame his post position with all the speed to his outside. Star Hill (#7) cuts back in distance after a better than looked third place finish in the Gr. 2 Indiana Derby on July 16 at Indiana Grand. He was parked four to five wide every step, made an extended run to loom into contention around the far turn, and lost his punch late but was well clear of the rest of the field. That race returned to be very productive producing THREE next time out winners. He will now switch to Florent Geroux and gets blinkers for the first time and he will drop back and make one run at a early pace that is projected to be very fast per TimeformUS pace projector. Tale of S’Avall (#4) he lost all chance in the Woody Stephens on June 11 when he was squeezed at the start, broke second to last, rushed up to chase the blazing pace in mid-pack, and did well to split the field. Although he is eligible for Allowance N1X the fast pace and his sustained closing kick can see him pick up the pieces to grab a share at a big price.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (13) DreFong

Exacta key: 13 / 1, 2, 4, 7. No reverse.  

Pick 4: 13 / 2, 11, 12 / 6 / 1, 2, 7, 12, 14 = 1 x 3 x 1 x 5 = $15 for a $1 Wager.  

Race 9: Gr. 1 Priority Jets Forego, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that is neutral for all running style. There was a plethora of early speed in the Tale of the Cat on August 12 and the runner-up who was closest to that fast pace, Chief Lion, will fleet post position two and go straight to the early lead and will find company early in morning line favorite A.P. Indian early. The horses that will be chasing that duo in the first flight are Catalina Red, Limousine Liberal, and Marketing. Those that will be out-sprinted for the early lead content to lay in mid-pack are Anchor Down, Tamarkuz, and Stallwalkin’ Dude. Horses that hope a fast pace speed duel collapses for their sustained kick are The Truth or Else, Schivarelli, Ready for Rye, and Dannie’s Deceiver.

The central theme of my Saratoga handicap on Travers day program has been early speed and I always favor horses that lost their previous start when he or she is the only horse to survive a fast pace and finish in the money. If that horse comes back in a race where they get a favorable pace scenario then he or she is the top choice. Chief Lion (#2) fits that profile perfectly as he comes into the Gr. 1 Forego off two defeats in the Gr. 2 Smile Sprint Handicap and Tale of the Cat Stakes. A closer review of the charts with the pace figures conclude that Chief Lion is the speed of this year’s Forego and is the one they must catch at what should be a generous price. He was sent off as the third choice in the Gr. 2 Smile Sprint Handicap and he ran the second best race to the gate to wire winner Delta Bluesman. The Wildcat Heir gelding broke running and battled head and head with the winner as they opened up a four-length and 3-½ length lead on the next horse as they battled through very fast early fractions (red designated TimeformUS pace figures). The David Jacobson trainee was turned away by the winner and lost second on the wire to the opportunistic stalker Limousine Liberal who rallied to pick up the pieces from third. He earned a then career best 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure but the validity of that figure was not confirmed as four horses came back to finish 4th, 5th, 3rd, and 5th in their next start. The gray or roan gelding made his next start in the Tale of the Cat at six furlongs on August 12 in a field that was loaded with early speed that figured to compromise his chances but Chief Lion ran superb in defeat as he was the only horse that was close to that very fast early pace (red coded pace figures) to finish in the money as the race fell apart for the closers. In that race he was out-sprinted for the early lead by a three horse speed duel among Big Guy Ian, Dads Cap, and Lewys Vaporizer, made a four wide move into the teeth of that fast pace joining the speed duel four wide on the turn, shook free of those three pace rivals to take over the lead at mid-stretch, and was run down by the opportunistic closer Stallwalkin Dude. He earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure which is the second highest last race speed figure only behind A.P. Indian’s 127 in the Gr. 1 Vanderbilt. What makes Chief Lion’s performance stand out was the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th place finishers rallied from 8th, 6th, 9th, and 10th as Chief Lion’s three pace rivals weaken badly to finish 6th, 9th, and 10th as Chief Lion won the early pace battle but lost the war. He will now stretch out to seven furlongs a distance he is winless in two starts but the field’s probable pacesetter will not have to set a demanding pace he has chased or pressed in his last two starts. With Florent Geroux taking over in the irons, I expect Chief Lion and take it to this field from the start and attempt theft tactics. He will be generous price and I look for him to be overlooked by bettors because they will be attracted by the two morning line favorites, A.P. Indian and Marking.

In my exotics I will use three main rivals. A.P. Indian (#11) enters this race off a four race win streak including his first Gr. 1 victory in the Gr. 1 Vanderbilt on July 30 at Saratoga where he enjoyed ideal circumstances en route to earning career best 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race he prompted the early pace outside of Delta Bluesman early, battled with him and Holy Boss around the far turn, shook free of those rivals at mid-stretch, and kicked clear to win by 1-¼ lengths. This race featured a race shape that strongly favored horses running on or near the early lead as the first four finishers ran 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd after a half mile. The stretch out to seven furlongs should be no issue as he is a perfect 3-for-3 at today’s distance but he will have to chase and press a classy speed horse in Chief Lion. Marking (#12) was beaten a head when he last faced A.P. Indian in the Gr. 2 Belmont Sprint Championship but lost more ground than the margin of defeat would indicate as he ran 43ft and 19ft more than the winner and third-place finisher respectively. Prior to that effort his other effort at seven furlong was to last year’s Eclipse Award Sprinter of the Year Runhappy in the Gr. 1 Malibu Stakes. Stallwalkin’ Dude (#8) took advantage of a complete pace meltdown when he rallied from eighth to blow past his stablemate Chief Lion in the Tale of the Cat last time out here at Saratoga. He set a sizzling early pace (red coded pace figures) and tired only in the final eighth of a mile in Allowance race on July 14.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (2) Chief Lion

Main Exacta: 2 / 8, 11, 12. Small reverse.   

Race 10: Gr. 1 Sword Dancer, 1-½ Miles, Three-year olds and up

TimeformUS pace projector predicts that the early pace does not favor a specific running style and should fair for all styles. Roman Approval will shoot straight for the early lead under Florent Geroux. The field’s likely leader will be chased by Grand Tito, Money Multiplier, and Applicator through the first half mile. Flintshire’s stablemate, Inordinate, is projected to be in mid-pack but is used as a rabbit to ensure an honest pace for his more fancied stablemate. The morning line favorite Flintshire will take his customary role towards the rear of the field early as Twilight Eclipse will drop back and attempt to turn the tables on the latter.

The field’s most probable pacesetter in the Sword Dancer is Roman Approval as he enters this field with the highest TimeformUS early pace rating in the field. At distances such as 1-¼ to 1-½ miles, morning line favorite Flintshire has the field’s highest last race 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure as well as the best finishing kick in the field.

Flintshire (#6) is the stand out in not only the Sword Dancer but also in this all Gr. 1 Pick 6 on Travers day at Saratoga. He made his first start for Chad Brown in the Gr. 1 Manhattan Stakes on June 11 and received a beautiful European style ride en route to a convincing 1-¾ length victory. The Dansili horse drafted in the two path behind the three early leaders World Approval, Grand Tito, and Divisidero. He continued to race in behind that trio on the far turn, angled out four wide into the stretch, and delivered a devastating late kick to blow past the leaders to win going away covering his final quarter of a mile in 21.49 seconds. The form of that race was flattered when the third-place finisher, World Approval, came back to win the Gr. 1 United Nations with 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The beautiful dark bay horse was entered forty-nine days later in the Gr. 2 Bowling Green on July 30 where he stretched out to 1-⅜ miles and did win as the rider pleased per the trouble comment. In the four-horse field, he drafted in third behind a very slow early pace (blue designated TimeformUS pace figures). He was boxed in through the first mile of the trip, angled out for a clear run into the stretch, and blew past his overmatched rivals as jockey Javier Castellano confidently looked over the other rivals to win by a measured three-quarters of a length earning field’s best last race 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The homebred is right at home at 1-½ miles where he owns a outstanding 16-4-8-1 record and the rest of the field is 19-3-3-8. Pace Projector sees Flintshire drop back and make that one run into the stretch. He is undefeated in two starts over the Saratoga turf course and is your single in all your horizontal wagers.

Wagering Strategies: No play as Flintshire is the 1-5 morning line favorite and is no more than a single in your horizontal wagers.

Race 11: Gr. 1 Travers Stakes, 1-¼ Miles, Three-year olds

TimeformUS pace projector predicts a fast early pace that could set it up perfectly for the stalkers and closers in this field. American Freedom will go straight to the front but will be pressed by Jim Dandy winner Laoban early. The horses that will get first run on the front runners if they tire are Arrogate, Connect, and Gun Runner. The horses that will be patiently waiting in mid-pack are Anaximandors, Destin, Gift Box, and Majesto. If the pace is so fast that the front runners are spent, look for closers such as Forever D’Oro, My Man Sam, Governor Malibu, and morning line favorite Exaggerator to be charging with their moves leaving the backstretch.

The field’s most probable pacesetter in the Travers Stakes is American Freedom who owns the field’s highest last race TimeformUS early pace rating in the field and not too far behind in second regards to early pace is Laoban. The field’s highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 123 belongs to morning line favorite Exaggerator and the field’s best last race TimeformUS late pace rating belongs to Belmont Stakes winner Creator whose late kick will only be flattered if the fast pace materializes as Pace Projectors suggest.

American Freedom (#2) had always shown plenty of promise in his three victories this year as this son of Pulpit looks to stamp himself as one of the best horses of his generation. His lone off the board finish in five starts happened when he was reeled back in only four weeks off a maiden victory and managed to split the field in the fourteen horse Pat Day Mile where he was out-sprinted for the early lead by the very fast Sharp Azteca who won gate to wire establishing a blistering early through the first six furlongs (designated by red TimeformUS pace figures) en route to two and a half length margin of victory. He stretched out to two turns for the first time in the Sir Barton Stakes and showed he can ration out his speed to 1-1/16 miles winning by one-length defeating a “key” race field that saw the second-and-fourth place finishers come back to win. His most impressive performance came in the Iowa Derby where he won by four and three-quarter lengths earning a then career best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race he was parked three wide into and around the far turn, angled over into the two path down the backstretch, and continued pressing a tepid pace through the first six furlongs (designated by blue TimeformUS pace figures). He was able to shake clear of his early rivals and kicked clear defeating Texas Chrome who came back to win the Prelude Stakes at Louisiana Downs in his next start.  He was taking a big step up in class from the Iowa Derby (112 TimeformUS race rating) to the Gr. 1 Haskell Stakes (124 TimeformUS race rating) and he ran second finishing length and half behind Exaggerator. A closer inspection of that race reveals that American Freedom ran the best race in the field and one only has to watch the replay and review the race chart to appreciate his effort in defeat. He was floated four paths off the rail by the favorite Nyquist and pressed the Kentucky Derby winner through a quick pace for a half mile (red coded pace figures). The Bob Baffert trainee poked his head in front into the far turn only to get another challenge from Gun Runner as those three battled through the turn setting it up perfectly for the opportunistic closer Exaggerator to sweep past American Freedom to register his third Grade 1 victory this year. The bay colt ran superb in defeat when you consider he was part of that fast pace where the three horses that chased him for the first six furlongs tired badly to finish fourth beaten 3-¾ lengths, fifth beaten 6-¼ lengths, and sixth and last beaten 32 lengths. His 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure ranks as the second highest last race speed figure in this field and two points better than Laoban’s victory in the Jim Dandy one day earlier where he benefited from an uncontested early lead through slow fractions (blue coded pace figures). He will remove the blinkers for the first time in a Graded Stakes route and trainer Bob Baffert has won at 50% clip (3-for-6) the past five years with that move and his most successful trainee who won with that move was Bodemeister who won the Arkansas Derby by 9-½ lengths. If Laoban elects to go straight to the front then jockey Rafael Bejarano can elect to track that pacesetter in second and make his bid for the lead leaving the backstretch. He was my confirmed Travers horse after his game runner-up effort in the Haskell Stakes and believe he is primed for a breakthrough performance at a hint of a price.

Gun Runner (#14) is one horse from the Kentucky Derby that I prefer over the others in this year’s Travers Stakes. The son of Candy Ride ran a superb third in a race where the horses that finished 2nd, 4th, and 5th rallied from 15th, 12th, and 19th. In the Kentucky Derby he broke running to be on top a few strides leaving the gate but settled into comfortable position on the rail chasing the very fast early pace (red designated TimeformUS pace figures) of the leader Danzig Candy. He was angled off the rail after the first six furlongs and made his move to grab the lead into the stretch only to be collared by the favored Nyquist at mid-stretch and held on well to be third in a race where the minor placings were dominated by closers. After an emphatic paid workout in the Matt Winn Stakes he returned in the Gr. 1 Haskell Stakes where he took on Nyquist and Exaggerator and managed to defeat only one horse to the wire losing by 6-¼ to the opportunistic closer Exaggerator. In the Haskell, he settled off the dueling leaders American Freedom and Nyquist early, as the field reached the far turn he made a three wide move to challenge those leaders in a three-horse duel for the lead, and that wide move into the teeth of a fast pace took its toll as this Steve Asmussen trainee tired through the stretch to finish fifth. He is winless on a wet fast track and returns to a fast main track where he owns fine record 6-5-0-1 with his lone third being his excellent third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He will have more than an eighth of a mile from post position fourteen to get over and not lose too much ground into the first turn and with his tactical speed get the jump on the closers.

Arrogate (#1) is a horse that I have been very high on since he made his debut on April 17 in a six-furlong maiden race at Los Alamitos and he was much the best. He promptly broke his maiden when he stretched out for the first time in his second career start. The one performance that stamped this son of Unbridled’s Song as a horse that his connections can point for a race such as the Travers Stakes was his Allowance N1X on June 24 at Santa Anita where he won under confident handling by Rafael Bejarano. Breaking from the rail he broke a bit slowly but recovered quickly to set the early pace and received pressure Chief of Staff as those two battled head and head through tepid early pace for half mile (designated by blue TimeformUS pace figures). He was able to shake loose of his pace rival on the far turn, opened up from the rest of the field, and won geared down with effortless stride to the wire earning career best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The performance was flattered when his pace rival Chief of Staff that finished 16-½ lengths behind Arrogate came back on July 17 and won Allowance N1X at Del Mar by 1-½ lengths earning 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was an Allowance N2X on August 4 at Del Mar as his final prep for the Midsummer Derby and overcame a wide journey and slow early pace in a three-horse field to win by 1-¾ lengths posting a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race, he was floated very wide through the first half mile by outsider Teniente Coronel as the pacesetter Kristo was able to set a very slow measured pace through first six furlongs (blue coded pace figures). He made his move midway on the far turn, grabbed the lead, and kicked clear. He will now get the acid test in class as he will face the toughest competition in four starts per TimeformUS Race Ratings and has yet to face a rival as accomplished as Exaggerator or Creator. The positives are distance laden pedigree as her dam, Bubbler, won four route races from 1 Mile 70 Yards to 1-⅛ miles and Arrogate has successfully transferred her dam’s affinity for a route of ground. He is drawn comfortably on the rail where new jockey Mike Smith can settle Arrogate in behind American Freedom and Laoban and be positioned in third and get first run on the closers such as Exaggerator, Creator, and My Man Sam. The lack of seasoning will be compensated with a healthy price if he wins his first Grade 1.

Creator (#12) is the one closer in this field that I will back with confidence because his Jim Dandy performance was simply a throw out effort. He finished last in a six-horse field beaten 9-¼ lengths where the leader and eventual winner Laoban was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace (blue coded pace figures) through the first six furlongs and made no impact in a race where the first four finishers ran 1st, 3rd, 2nd, and 4th after the first half mile where a closer such as Creator had no chance versus that race shape and pace scenario. In his previous start at today’s 1-¼ mile distance, he lost all chance when he was cut off by another horse and bumped sharply into the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby but recovered and passed tired rivals to finish 13th. He received a beautiful ground saving ride from Iran Ortiz Jr. to rally from tenth behind a brisk pace (red coded pace figures) to catch Destin on the wire of the Gr. 1 Belmont Stakes. If the pace does indeed fall apart for the closers, Creator will be the one horse finishing through the stretch.

Exaggerator (#7) has been the beneficiary of race track conditions (sloppy) and fast pace race set ups (red designated TimeformUS pace figures) in his three biggest Gr. 1 victories this year: Santa Anita Derby, Preakness Stakes, and last time out in the Haskell Stakes. He must prove that he cannot only win on a fast main track but can win at the classic distance of 1-¼ mile on a fast main track.

Wagering Strategies: I’m looking to beat Exaggerator and make American Freedom the focus on my wagers in the Travers because I feel the son of Pulpit ran the best race in defeat in the Haskell and should enjoy a great trip just off Laoban early. If Gun Runner is anywhere near 8-1 or higher come post time I will recommend a win bet on him.

WIN bet on (14) GUN RUNNER to WIN = $16

$6 Exacta part-wheel: (2) American Freedom with (1) Arrogate, (12) Creator, (14) Gun Runner = $18

$4 Exacta part-wheel: (1) Arrogate, (12) Creator, (14) Gun Runner with (2) American Freedom = $12

$4 Exacta part-wheel: (2) American Freedom with (7) Exaggerator = $4

Total Wager: $50