Race 7: N.K. ROCKET MAN (#11, 10-1)
The morning line favorite and bridesmaid Tropical Terror who has finished second in six of his last nine starts routing on the turf including last time out when he missed by a nose behind slow early pace set by the gate to wire winner Hammering Lemon. Do not be fooled by his margin of defeat to indicate that today will be the day he breaks his maiden. In some of his other runner up efforts, Tropical Terror lost by a neck, three quarters of a length, and a half length as this Golden Balls gelding always comes up short. Instead, I went back to my horses to watch this meet and landed on N.K. ROCKET MAN who after reviewing the past performances one can say that his debut on August 8 was nothing more than a prep to stretch him out to two turns, a distance that his pedigree suggests he will adore. He is by terrific turf influence Unusual Heat out of the dam This Means War who won her first two starts on turf including one mile California bred Allowance N1X for today’s trainer Dean Pederson. Her second dam, Top Of Our Game, is another turf influence as she won four of eighteen starts on the turf and was stakes placed on the turf. Based on a limited sample, trainer Dean Pederson was winless with his previous two starters making their debut sprinting on the turf and with his distance oriented pedigree and trainer that prefers to give his maidens a race in their first start, N.K. Rocket Man was using his August 8 race as nothing more than a prep to stretch out and that is exactly how one can explain his fourth place finish. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran inside midpack, reacting badly to tight quarters entering the turn, throwing his head, gathering himself for a rail effort in the lane, outkicked for 3rd. He can learn a ton from the trip today.” The one area that was not described in the Handicapper’s Report that I saw on the race replay was the gallop out. According to Trip Notes Pros, on the gallop out he “EXPLODED despite the jock trying not to give him permission to.” There is definetly a lot more substance in N.K. Rocket Man as he makes his second career start and stretches out to one mile for the first time. He has come back with three workouts to indicate he has maintained his form and jockey Thiago Pereira remains in the irons as the go to rider for Dean Pederson barn. With the added ground, better than looked debut effort sprinting on turf, and only making his second career start with plenty of upside in front of him, N.K. ROCKET MAN is the type of choice I prefer in this maiden turf event with the favorite a proven bridesmaid.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (11) N.K. ROCKET MAN at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #11 with #9 Carmelita’s Man, #6 Luvluv, #2 Mamba Cool. Small reverse.
Race 8: SHANGHAI TRUFFLE (#6, 12-1)
Each Del Mar meet there is always one horse that I identify has tough trips not identified in the running lines and runs in the final week of the meet. This Allowance N1X sprint at six and half furlongs on the main track sees the early pace breaking from post positions two thru four among Magic at Midnight, Happier, and Golden Principal with Magic at Midnight and Golden Prinicipal the quickest early with comparable Moss Pace Figures on the main track and second choice Happier broke her maiden disputing a moderate pace and could be part of this fast pace. If the pace becomes too fast this race could set up perfectly for the late run of SHANGHAI TRUFFLE who has run twice this meet and each race she encountered difficult circumstances that compromised her chances. She returned from a 74 day layoff on July 27 at this same class level at one mile on the main track and tired to be a non threatening third behind the favored winner Harvest Moon but she was compromised by track profile on that afternoon. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “dropped onto the rail heading into the first turn, traveled midfield down the backstretch, bid between foes in the far turn, flattened out midstretch, best of the rest.” What made this effort better than looked was she raced on the rail for the majority of the trip chasing that very fast pace set by Velvet Queen on a main track that featured a strong pro outside bias and this daughter of Shanghai Bobby was pinned on the slower inside paths behind a winner that returned to win Grade 3 Torrey Pines with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The Patty Gallagher trainee broke her maiden for a $50,000 and was eligible for a Starter Allowance event at the same one mile distance on August 16 and the class relief did not help as she finished third but this time her excuse was ill timed ride by jockey Mike Smith. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “raced three-wide at the back of the pack into the first turn, sent five-wide around foes to the front heading onto the backstretch, pushed the tempo three-deep to the far turn, battled four-wide into the lane, stayed on to the wire, won the battle for third.” She lost more ground than the 3-¼ length margin of defeat as she was moved prematurely to press that fast pace while widest in the field. She now makes that all important cut back to one turn with the aforementioned three entrants flashing early speed to set up for her late kick with Thiago Pereira taking in the irons for the first time. The field’s leader in TimeformUS late pace rating, SHANGHAI TRUFFLE is my best longshot bet on the card and I hope we can be anywhere near his 12-1 morning line.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (6) SHANGHAI TRUFFLE at 10-1 or higher.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #2 Magic at Midnight, #7 Been Studying Her. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: INNER GHOST (#12, 15-1)
I do not have anything negative to say about the tepid morning line favorite Rombauer who broke his maiden in his career debut at today’s distance on July 25 here at Del Mar where he finished his last two furlongs in 22.93 seconds defeating two next out winners who returned to earn Beyer Speed Figures of 50 and 48 respectively. Although the European imports Cotopaxi and Ebeko have had comments of making the running or led, the early speed displayed in European does not equal to North America early speed. The one colt that has flashed North America early speed and is attempting to stretch that speed to two turns is INNER GHOST who ships in from Monmouth Park to make his first start around two turns. The homebred son of Ghostzapper is bred to excel at a route of ground as his sire wins at 17% with his two year olds routing on turf and his dam Dreamup won one of three starts as a two-year old and was three for three routing on the main track. She is trained Michael Stidham who excels with two year olds making their debut on the turf sprinting as he has connected at a gaudy 43% (30/13-4-4) the last five years which explains why Inner Ghost received action in his career debut going off at 9-2 third choice and delivered a visually impressive maiden winner that is not captured in his 50 Beyer Speed Figure. According to Trip Notes Pros comments, he “was in the middle of (2) different 3-across lineups in this race with the same horses. Approaching the far turn he and the inside rival dropped back to allow the three wide rival to cross over. At the top of the stretch he and the original inside rival moved up two wide and three wide to form the 2nd 3-across lineup. Gamely battled and won the prolonged stretch drive. Liked the way he galloped out.” He will now make his first start routing on turf in his second career start and in the past five years trainer Michael Stidham has won at 28% (18/5-2-4) with that move. In addition, the trainer and owner tandem have sent winning shippers to Del Mar with Elsa (November 24, 2018, $11.40-1), Alms (November 30, 2019, $2.70-1), and recently with Pixelate in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke who quietly has ridden six turf wins this meet with some of those prices such as Red Lark in Del Mar Oaks takes over in the irons for the first time and the leader in TimeformUS early pace rating is a clear leader in TimeformUS pace projector and I expect him to be on the lead and make every pole a winning one at a fair price as his morning line appears too high.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (12) INNER GHOST at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #12 with #10 Rombauer. Small reverse.
Race 10: SPIELBERG (#1, 2-1)
This race features the two year olds that ran on August 8 at Del Mar. On that afternoon, Grade 2 Best Pal was won by today’s entrant Weston and four races later a maiden race at the exact same six furlong distance as the Best Pal. The maiden race featured fractions and final time that was faster than the Best Pal and the top two finishers, Dr. Schivel and Spielberg, returned to this spot. Although the former defeated the latter by 5-¾ lengths to earn the field’s highest last race 86 Beyer Speed Figure, I was more impressed by SPIELBERG’s second place finish as he moved early to attack the dueling leaders Noble Reflection and Superman Shaq and was run down by the perfect trip stalking winner who was making his third career start. A cheasnut son of Union Rags who cost $1 million at the Keeneland September 2019 sale which was the highest purchase price from the 63 yearlings by Union Rags at the sale. He was always bred to adore distance of ground as his dam, Miss Sequel, won three of seven starts around two turns on the main track and her only foal to race, High Road, won two of six starts routing on the main track. He received all the support going off as the 4-5 post time favorite with the traditional fast Bob Baffert workouts that impressed mornings observers such as National Turf’s Andy Harrington who raved about this colt’s workouts on July 27 and August 2 with B+ and his barn had sent out two debuting maidens to win in their first start already in the meeting. Breaking from the outermost post position eight in a eight horse, he “tracked the top two, pushing forward 3-wide in the turn, driving to the lead in upper stretch, having no response for the winner, keeping on to hold 2nd,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the fourth place finisher, Waspirant, returned on August 29 to break his maiden with a 63 Beyer Speed Figure (seven point improvement) and the pace rival that weakened to finish sixth, second choice Superman Shaq, came back on September 6 to break his maiden impressively by 3-¾ lengths. Although he is a maiden making his second start in this prestigious Grade 1 event, trainer Bob Baffert accomplished the same feat in 2014 when beaten favorite in his debut came back in the Del Mar Futurity and romped and that horse’s name was American Pharoah. Spielberg has continued to train very well for his second start with back to back B workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. He leads the field in TimeformUS early pace ratings and has the early speed from the rail to make the lead or can elect to stalk if Dixie’s Two Stents and Weston elect to go for the early lead with Abel Cedillo the ideal passenger. As the second choice in this field of six, I expect Spielberg to improve over his debut as my most probable winner on the card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) SPIELBERG at 8-5 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #5 Dixie’s Two Stents. Small reverse.
Race 11: KLONDIKE CREEK (#4, 9-2)
With the dirt sprinter, I’m Busy, entered in this field and that entrant has been on the lead or no more than 1-½ lengths off the lead at the first pace call in his previous seven starts. This race will have an honest pace. Others in this field that look to be forwardly placed on or near the front end are Fabozzi and R Cha Cha as both entrants have triple digit plus TimeformUS early pace ratings and exit dirt sprints. This race is ripe for a horse from just off the pace and no horse fits that profile perfectly then seven year old KLONDIKE CREEK who enters this race in good form having hit the board in his previous four starts with two of them victories, one of the turf and the other on the Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields. Prior to his better than third place finish in his last turf start, he won the Tapeta surface on February 7 where he found himself in second pressing at a very slow early pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-13,-12) earning corresponding blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. It took the entire length of the stretch for Klondike Creek to wear down the long time leader Irrefutable to win by a neck as the 1-1 favorite. This race was not a strong race as the six horses behind him produced two third-place finishes and four off the board finishes. He returned from a 107 day layoff on May 24 at 1-1/16 miles on the turf and he finished third beaten a half length behind the 32-1 winner who rallied from ninth and last. According to the Trip Note Pros comments, he “secured the dreaded uncovered three to four wide trip throughout. Moved up willingly while still wide on the far turn. Put in a rally in the lane but was out finished late by the top two.” He deserves a pass for this race given the amount of ground he lost throughout. He makes returned off another 106 day layoff but has trained very well ending with five furlong move in 1:02 flat that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B working in company Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf runner up Ivy League with the comment “galloping out a length in front down to the 7/8 pole in 49.3, appearing best, a good work.” He is drawn well in post position four to navigate a ground saving trip into the first turn and makes a huge rider upgrade to Flavien Prat as he and Umberto Rispoli are going down to the last day to determine the leading rider of the summer Del Mar meet.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) KLONDIKE CREEK at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #1 Fabozzi, #9 Three Ay Em. Small reverse for each.
Del Mar Race 7 Pick 5
Race 7: (2) Mamba Cool, (6) Luvluv, (9) Carmelita’s Man, (11) N.K. Rocket Man
Race 8: (2) Magic at Midnight, (6) Shanghai Truffle, (7) Been Studying Her
Race 9: (10) Rombauer, (12) INNER GHOST
Race 10: (1) SPIELBERG
Race 11: (1) Fabozzi, (4) Klondike Creek, (9) Three Ay Em
Ticket 1: 2,6,9,11 with 2,6,7 with 12 with 1 with 1,4,9 = 4 x 3 x 1 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $36
Ticket 2: 2,6,9,11 with 2,6,7 with 10,12 with 1 with 1,4,9 = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 3 x $0.50 = $36
Total Wager: $72
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