Race 8: CANOODLING (#6, 8-1)
I have no knocks on the two morning line favorites, Madone and Ivy League, as those two juvenile fillies ran first and second at this distance in their debut on July 31 at Del Mar and they finished 4-½ lengths in front of the rest of the field as both are eligible to move forward. The second preference goes to Madone because of a better draw but the price potential in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf goes to CANOODLING who also debuted on that same July 31 that two morning line favorites but did so in a five furlong turf sprint. The daughter of Pioneer of the Nile was sent off as the fifth choice at 6-1 in her debut as she did not have a particularly strong pedigree for turf or a trainer that does well with debuting maidens sprinting on the turf. She by respectable 13% turf sire out of the dam unraced Harlan’s Holiday mare Miz Kella who produced one starter, Vanilla Bean Back, who broke her maiden in her career debut sprinting on the main track with a 66 Beyer Speed Figure and this was going to be her first turf starter. Trainer Jeff Mullins has sent only ten starters to make their debut sprinting on the turf recording only two second place finishes and one third. She had trained very well for her debut recording a B work according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington outwokring debut winner and Del Mar Debutante starter Roll Up Mo Money and this work rolled over to her debut victory on July 31 where she was visually impressive. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “was a ½ step slow and broke a bit in at the start, had one beat down the backstretch, gained along the rail around the far turn, angled out three-wide between horses leaving that bend and into the stretch, powered to the front near deep stretch, drew clear to the wire.” The part that was impressive about this maiden win was her gallop out as she continued on past the wire suggesting the distance should pose no issue and she had more to give after this race. The dark bay or brown filly now stretches out and has returned with four workouts including a razor sharp five furlong move in 1:01.3 on August 30 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating this filly “leveled out quite well this morning reaching like a good thing in 26.0, 101.3. There is upside here.” Juan Hernandez who was aboard for that victory remains in the irons and although trainer Jeff Mullins is winless in his previous fourteen starters making their first route race in their second career start, CANOODLING has the ability and potential to overcome that statistic to score the minor upset.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (6) CANOODLING at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta Box: #6-#2 Madone and #6-#11 Ivy League.
Race 9: ILLUMINATION (#5, 4-1)
The universal single in this year’s Del Mar Debutante belongs to the fancied Bob Baffert morning line favorite PRINCESS NOOR who broke her maiden by 2-½ lengths in a gallop on August 22 and delivered an impressive gallop out according to the Trip Note Pros earning the field’s top last race 76 Beyer Speed Figure. If she wins then she wins at odds below her morning line of 8-5 but I do not trust flashy maiden winners such as this daughter of Not This Time considering the conditions she encountered her win. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “was asked to take the front, setting a solid unmolested tempo, cruising clear into the stretch without being asked, pulling away once again when given a brief shake of the rein.” Despite this “in hand” victory, she was able to be loose on the lead through very slow early fractions earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-7, -5) with corresponding blue coded TimeformUS pace figures earning an average 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Instead I prefer the higher priced Bob Baffert entrant in ILLUMINATION who has a similar profile as last year’s Debutante winner Bast. The daughter of Uncle Mo ran second in her career debut, added the blinkers for the first time in the Debutante, and she broke her maiden in this race by 8-¾ lengths earning 85 Beyer Speed Figure. A daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was highly regarded at the Fasig Tipton Saratoga August 2019 sale as she was sixth highest priced yearling at $900,000 from the 39 yearlings by that sire and she comes from a black type mare in Light the City who won her first two starts including the Anokia Stakes and was Grade 1 placed as a three year old. The Bob Baffert trainee was bet down to the 3-5 post time favorite on August 15 where she ran second behind the perfect trip stalking debut winner Forest Caraway who appears in this race but this dark bay or brown filly ran a respectable race considering the pace she chased or pressed. In that race, she broke running but quickly was outsprinted by the very fast second time starter Mandragora Seeker who set fractions of 21.43 and 44.44 seconds earning above average Moss Pace Figures (+8,+3) and corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She bid between rivals at the top of the stretch and fought gamely towards the wire to hold her stablemate Kalypso for second while racing on her wrong lead to the wire which is very rare for a Bob Baffert trainee. The third place finisher returned on September 4 to run second beaten half length in a maiden race. She has returned with two workouts with the blinkers including a five furlong team move working inside of her stablemate and morning line favorite Princess Noor on August 31 in 1:01 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “easy albeit a tad second best inside Princess Noor in 37.3, 101.1. Solid right back; was in blinkers.” Abel Cedillo remains aboard and with the blinkers I do not expect her to go straight for the lead but similar to Bast last year settle just off the pace between Princess Noor and My Girl Red and if she switches leads as she has done in her morning drills then she can give her fancied mate a run for her money at much a higher price.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) ILLUMINATION at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #3 My Girl Red, #6 Forest Caraway. Small reverse for each.
Race 10: PIXELATE (#4, 3-1)
The three-year old turf division in Southern California has taken turns beating each other in the past three months. The three major events in Southen California for three year old turf horses are the Cinema won by Hariboux, opening day Del Mar feature Oceanside Stakes won by Hit it a Bomb, and recently the La Jolla Stakes won by Smooth Like Strait. The Del Mar Derby is the fourth race in this division and a fresh face with excellent East Coast turf form ships in for the money. PIXELATE is accustomed to a variety of turf conditions as Del Mar will be his eighth turf course he has tried as he has won or ran second at Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs, and Delaware Park. The homebred son of City Zip has not found the winner’s circle in his last three starts but he has earned speed figures in each start that equal to a winning effort in this event and he has faced some of the East Coast best three year old turf horses in his last two starts. He was sent off as the 5-2 third choice in the Audubon Stakes on June 20 at Churchill Downs where his rally was ineffective behind a moderate early pace set by the gate to wire winner Field Pass who returned to win the Translyvania Stakes at Keeneland on July 12 with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure. The Michael Stidham trainee shipped to Delaware Park for the Grade 3 Kent on July 4 and ran a winning race in defeat but was out kicked to the wire by the favored winner Gufo in a race that has returned to be very productive. The dark bay or brown colt settled into a comfortable spot early racing two wide on first turn and down the backstretch behind a fast pace set by the loose leader Sunsation early. He continued racing two wide on the far turn, angled four wide at top of the stretch, put in his bid past mid-stretch but was out kicked by Gufo who rallied from next to last and made the last run to win by a half length in a new course record that earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure as those two finished three lengths clear of third place finisher. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to run second beaten a head in the Saratoga Derby earning 93 Beyer Speed Figure and third place finisher Vanzzy returned to win the Jersey Derby on July 26 at Monmouth Park with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure. He will make his first start off a sixty four day layoff for a trainer who in the past five years has shipped eight starters to Del Mar and has won twice with Elsa (November 24, 2018, $11.40-1) and Alms (November 30, 2019, $2.70-1) both winners owned and bred by today’s owner Godolphin LLC. He has tactical speed to sit in midpack at what should be a brisk pace with hustling rider Edwin Maldonando taking on Dominant Soul and Margot’s Boy tracking that rival into the first turn and down the backstretch. Del Mar’s leading turf rider, Umberto Rispoli (33 turf wins), should navigate a ground saving trip from post four and when the real running begins, have dead aim on the tiring leaders as the most probable winner on the card.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (4) PIXELATE at 9-5 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #2 California Kook, #11 Margot’s Boy, #12 K P All Systems Go. No reverse.
Race 11: BIG STORY (#9, 9-2)
When I review the horses that have a race under them I am not impressed with them making me prefer a fresh face in the Sunday finale at Del Mar. The morning line favorite Big Flame ran second in his career debut behind Taco Flavored Kisses in a race where the third thru fifth place finishers also returned in this event. The race itself had a moderate early pace with the first three finishers running second, first, and third at each call and earned an average 63 Beyer Speed Figure (Beyer par 65). The form of that race was not flattered when the winner returned to finish third beaten 4-¾ lengths in the I’m Smokin Stakes on September 4 here at Del Mar and third thru fifth place finishers were in a three horse photo finish for the minor awards as visually this was not an impressive race. The other horse with experience, Alpine Thunder, received positive comments from Trip Notes Pros with the comment “galloped out HUGE.” The issue with his race was it happened 107 days ago and he was a veterieran scratch on June 28 in a similar maiden race at Los Alamitos. The winner of that May 22 race, Positivity, won the Graduation Stakes earning a below average 60 Beyer Speed Figure and from the five horses that ran behind the winner it has produced only one third place finish with four horses off the board in their next race. From the horses making their career debut in the finale, BIG STORY was the entrant that appealed to me the most. Although from a pedigree perspective BIG STORY is not bred to win at this six furlong distance as his sire, Mr. Big, has won at 7% (2-for-29) in the past five years with two-year old sprinting on the main track and he is out of an unraced dam and Big Story in her first starter. However, trainer Mark Glatt historically has done well with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track at Del Mar and this gelding has really impressed National Turf’s Andy Harrington in his training to suggest he can overcome his lack of precoious breeding to win in his career debut. In the past five years, trainer Mark Glatt has sent twelve two-year olds making their debut sprinting on the main track at Del Mar and connected with only two of them for a 17% win rate but those two winners were not favored. Collusion Illusion (July 21, 2019, $5.20-1) and Vai (August 28, 2016, $8.00-1) were ready to win their debut for trainer Mark Glatt and My Mandate (August 12, 2018, $6.80-1) ran second in his first start. The gray or roan gelding has thrived in his training with his last two workouts here at Del Mar receiving B from National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a five furlong team drill in 1:01 3/5 with stablemate and today’s rival Suzie Qzz Brother on August 28 that he stated “tracked and ran away from race mate Suzie Qzz Brother in a faster than given 25.0, 49.3, 101.3. Nice kick here.” In a race where the horses with experience are below average, BIG STORY brings excellent worktab and trainer who has done with well debuting maidens at Del Mar to suggest that this gelding is ready and roll in his first start as he lures leading rider Umberto Rispoli in the irons.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (9) BIG STORY at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #10 Big Flame, #4 Lil Nas. No reverse.
Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4
Race 8: (2) Madone, (6) Canoodling, (11) Ivy League
Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway
Race 10: (4) PIXELATE
Race 11: (9) BIG STORY
Main Ticket: 2,6,11 with 5 with 4 with 9 = 3 x 1 x 1 x 1 x $5 = $15
Ticket 1: 2,6,11 with 3,6 with 4 with 9 = 3 x 2 x 1 x 1 x $2 = $12
Total Wager: $27
Del Mar Race 8 Pick 3
Race 8: (2) Madone, (6) Canoodling, (11) Ivy League
Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway
Race 10: (4) PIXELATE
Ticket 1: 2,6,11 with 5 with 4 = 3 x 1 x 1 x $4 = $12
Ticket 2: 2,6,11 with 3,6 with 4 = 3 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $12
Total Wager: $24
Del Mar Race 9 Pick 3
Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway
Race 10: (4) PIXELATE
Race 11: (9) BIG STORY
Ticket 1: 5 with 4 with 9 = 1 x 1 x 1 x $5 = $5
Ticket 2: 3,6 with 4 with 9 = 2 x 1 x 1 x $2 = $4
Total Wager: $9
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