Sharp Samurai Looks Too Sharp in the Del Mar Derby

BEST BETS:

BIG BUZZ (Race 5, 6-1)

SHARP SAMURAI (Race 8, 7-2)

Race 5: Del Mar Juvenile Turf, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year olds

BIG BUZZ (#4, 6-1) will make his second career start in this listed stakes race as a maiden but this Tim Yakteen trainee ran much better than his running line or his comment Off Slow, 5-wide into lane comment in your Daily Racing Form would suggest in his career debut back on August 12 here at Del Mar. He is regally bred to run long on the turf as he is by the Dynaformer stallion Mr. Big out of the Unusual Heat mare Not Unusual and she won two of nine starts routing on the turf and she has passed that affinity for routing on the turf to her progeny. She has produced two winners from as many starters with her most famous sibling being Big Buzz’s full brother Big Score who is the morning line favorite in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. Although it is very difficult to train a horse to win at first asking in their first start going long on the turf, trainer Tim Yakteen does very well with that move especially here at Del Mar where he wins at 38% rate (8/3-0-0) including one this meet with Multi Player (August 13, 2017, $12.30-1). Despite his breeding and his trainer’s success with turf horses making their debut going long, Big Buzz was dismissed at 10-1 in his career debut and the lack of wagering support was the result of his workouts leading up that race. National Turf’s Andy Harrington witness his last two works prior to his debut and was not impressed giving him a pair of C+ including his August 5 move where he stated “solo spin never getting out of third gear in 101.3. Like to see some racing here.” He was defeated in that race by Respect the Hustle by two-lengths but the difference in margin is the result of ground lost. In that race, he broke step slowly from the gate, jockey Rafael Bejarano maneuvered him over to the inside into the first turn and save ground for the first quarter of a mile. Down the backstretch, he was taken towards the outside in the three-path racing along the eventual winner but as Respect the Hustle saved ground into and around the far turn, Big Buzz launched his run parked four to five wide on the turn and was fanned five wide into the stretch as the eventual winner saved every inch of ground and came out two paths off the rail into the stretch and rallied to win by half-length. Big Buzz lost nothing in defeat finishing well out in the center of the turf course to lose by only two-lengths. The amount of ground he lost is reflected in Trakus where he covered 24 and 32 feet more than the first two finishers. I expect him to move forward in a considerable way in his second career start especially after he worked five furlongs in 1:01 ⅕ on August 27 in company with his full brother Big Score (Big Buzz - August 27) where he was in hand throughout under a nice hold towards the wire and galloped very well. His late kick should be flattered by a very hot pace that TimeformUS anticipates with Martin Riggs, Bombardeo, and Take the One O One all vying for the front end to ensure hot pace for Big Buzz who just needs a ground saving trip to reserve his late kick at what should be a hint of a price to start the Sunday Pick 6.

The Play:

WIN bet on (4) BIG BUZZ at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 4-8, 4-9, 4-11. Small reverse for each.

$5 Pick 3: 4 / 3, 5 / 2, 7 = 1 x 2 x 2 x $5 = $20

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year olds

THIRTEEN SQUARED (#5, 5-1) is my co-top choice with stable mate Alluring Star as both horses are trained by Bob Baffert and he has been sensational this meet with two-year olds making their career debut in a maiden special weight dirt sprint. Through the conclusion of yesterday’s program, he is winning at 40% (10/4-3-0) with this move and two of those four wins were with today’s rider Rafael Bejarano in the irons: Just A Smidge (July 19, $2.00-1) and Zatter (August 20, $1.70-1). Thirteen Squared gets the top preference not only because he is trained by a red hot conditioner but also based on his excellent win early breeding and his workouts for his career debut. He is by the first crop of the Arnold Zetcher owned and race stallion Liaison who is off to a fast start at his home of Spendthrift Farms. From fourteen two-year olds to race, four have won but the impressive part about those four winners is that THREE of them won their career debut. Vicente’s Shadow (Emerald Downs, June 18, $11.90-1), Pont Du Gard (Arlington Park, July 7, $31.10-1), and Bronx Beauty (Penn National, July 13, $1.20-1) all won their career debut for the stallion Liaison. The dam, House of Fortune, who was also raced and owned by Arnold Zetcher won 8 of 22 starts on the race track for almost a million dollars in earnings and won 3 of 5 start as a two-year old. She produced two winners from three starters but none won as a two-year old. He comes into his career debut with four works over the Del Mar main track including a half spin in 48 ⅘ on August 16 with stable mate High Drama (Thirteen Squared - August 16) where he showed high speed from the start not allowing the workmate to go by him while nicely in hand with the only negative is switching from his right to his left lead a few strides out of the gate. Following this work, he came back with two back to back B works from National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a five furlong move in 1:00 flat on August 29 that he showed a “good late rush while best over barn mate Vitality in 36.1, 59.3 (23.2 LQ) finishing with plenty in reserve; Bejarano up.” By a red-hot first crop stallion whose progeny are firing in their career debut, training very well, and for a conditioner who has done nothing wrong with his first time starters this meet makes the uncoupled entry of Thirteen Squared and Alluring Star the two tough to beat in this event.   

The Play:

WIN bet on (5) THIRTEEN SQUARED at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-5, 3-6.

Main Exactas: 5-1, 5-3, 5-6.

$5 Pick 3: 3, 5 / 2, 7 / 5        = 2 x 2 x 1 x $5 = $20

$2 Pick 3: 3, 5 / 2, 7 / 3, 10  = 2 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $16

Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds and upward

JUST KIDDING (#7, 20-1) is my co-top choice along with The Lieutenant but the top choice goes to the longest shot on the morning line. The Lemon Drop Kid appears to have tailed off having not finished in the money in all four starts this year losing his three starts on a wet fasted or fast main track by a combined 21-½ lengths. However, this bay gelding showed signs of returning to form with a better than looked fifth place finish beaten eight lengths behind the 2-1 favorite Irish Freedom. Prior to that defeat, this Peter Eurton trainee no excuse finishing fifth beaten five-lengths on July 16 at Los Alamitos where he navigated a ground saving trip stalking a very slow early pace dictated by the uncontested leader Got Even who earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and below average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (-18, -8). He remained in striking position around the far turn but was empty when the real running started finishing to be fifth. That race and his previous nine starts on a main track were for Allowance N2X and in order to turn things around his connections dropped him for the optional claiming price of $40,000 on August 13 and added the blinkers for the first time and based on his finish position he ran another sub-par race to finish fifth but he showed indications that he could be rounding into form. He was switching to Corey Nakatani he was hustled from the gate to duel through the first eighth of a mile before establishing a clear lead and then widen his margin down the backstretch where he went way too fast for a half mile earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and above average Moss Pace Figures (+35, +28). He continued to maintain his margin and position on the front end on the far turn as the winner Irish Freedom began to cut into that leader’s margin midway on the far turn. Despite tiring to finish fifth, Just Kidding held on well through mid-stretch and lost the minor placings by 3-¼ lengths as the second through fourth place finishers rallied from 11th, 9th, and 10th to complete the superfecta in a highly rated race where the winner earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. This was a good effort in defeat considering how fast he went early and earned the field’s top last race 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field. Moreover, the form of that race was flattered when the third-place finisher, Brimstoned, returned to win Allowance N1X on the turf on September 1 here at Del Mar. This traditional good work horse returned with an easy half mile spin on August 25 in 48 seconds flat and now drops seven pounds as he gets apprentice Laura Werner in the irons for the first time. I expect Laura Werner to utilize this gelding’s early speed by placing him on the early lead but hopefully not go as fast early as he did last time out. In a race where the two morning line favorites, Kristo and Show Me Da Lute, are vulnerable let’s point for a potential speed horse realistically placed and up and comer The Lieutenant.

The Play:

WIN bet on (2) THE LIEUTENANT at 6-1 or better.

WIN bet on (7) JUST KIDDING at 15-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-7, 2-8, 2-9.

Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-8, 7-9.  

Race 8: Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, 1-⅛ Miles, Three-year olds

SHARP SAMURAI (#5, 7-2) is looking for his third straight turf stakes victory this year and looks to give trainer Mark Glatt another victory on the penultimate day of the Del Mar meet as he is enjoying a career meet. The First Samurai gelding used to be one-dimensional front runner but under jockey Gary Stevens he has learn how to ration his speed to stalk and pounce effectively. The bay gelding accomplished his first stakes victory in the Rainbow Stakes at today’s 1-⅛ distance on June 10 where he was able to get over from post position nine in a eleven horse towards the inside and stalk the pace in comfortable spot down the backstretch as the leader Monster Man was able to dictate an uncontested lead through a moderate 48.18 second half mile. He stayed on the inside on the far turn and into the stretch patiently waiting for room to develop, found a seam along the inside at mid-stretch, and exploded to win by 1-¼ lengths defeating three of the same rivals he faces today: Monster Man and Fashion Business. He bypassed the traditional opening day Oceanside Stakes on July 19 to point for today’s Del Mar Derby and would use the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap as his prep for this event and he won that race by only head over Fashion Business but that margin does not take into account the amount of ground this bay gelding lost. He rated towards the rear of a bunched field early and continued biding his time towards the rear as Double Touch and others made premature wide moves to get into contention down the backstretch. He uncorked a five wide run to loom the entire field on the far turn and grab the lead into the stretch, opened up a short lead, and held off the late run of Fashion Business to win by a head earning the field’s top last race 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure and is tied for the top last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure. What makes that race impressive was Sharp Samurai covered 44, 45, and 49 feet more than the second through fourth place finishers according to Trakus. In a race where it has only one confirmed pacesetter in Monster Man, TimeformUS pace projector sees him place second tracking that rival and this additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue as he is undefeated at 1-⅛ in two starts. He showed no signs of regression when he returned two weeks after that race to work five furlongs in a near bullet 59 ⅕ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “breezed quickly in blinkers with Gary S up in 23.3, 59.2 reaching in his usual noteworthy manner Big as usual.” He should continue his winning way under his regular rider Gary Stevens as he looks to get first run on Bowie’s Hero and Big Score.

The Play:

Play the (5) SHARP SAMURAI to WIN at 5-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-10. Small reverse for each.

Spectator Looks to Shine Again in the Debutante

BEST BET: SPECTATOR (Race 7, 5-2)

Race 6: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and upward

TRIFECTA (#7, 5-1) is a horse that based on form might be shy of visiting the winner’s circle with six combined seconds or thirds from eighteen starts on the turf but this Any Given Saturday gelding enters this race in top form finishing first or second in two of three starts including an excellent runner-up performance over this turf course on July 28 here at Del Mar. The Mike Puype trainee has finished off the board only once and that happen two races back on June 17 where he was victimized by a very slow early pace and wide journey from start to finish. He was forced to break from post position eight in a eight horse field where he found himself three wide into and around the first turn and three wide down the backstretch chasing or pressing the eventual winner Hey Dude as that leader was able dictate slow early fractions earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He made a run to challenge the eventual winner three wide on the far turn and sustained that run to the top of the stretch where he flattened out on his run and weaken to finish seventh beaten five-lengths in a race where the second-and-eighth place finishers returned to win. Despite this defeat, his connections showed plenty of confidence keeping him in Allowance N1X on July 28 and he ran excellent race behind rally wide winner Oregon in a race that is better than the Blocked ⅛, split foes comment in your Daily Racing Form. According to the HR Trip Notes, Trifecta “ran along at the back of the main pack on the inside, under a hold on the inside of the 3rd flight heading into the far turn, in very tight for a 1/16th of a mile, exploding forward when finding room to be a clear 2nd.” In addition, Trip Note writer stated “he was unlucky to struggle for room in the stretch, but the way the winner ran, it is likely it did not matter this time.” This July 28 Allowance event returned to be “key” race with the winner finishing second in Allowance N2X on August 26 earning identical 89 Beyer Speed Figure and the fourth-and-fifth place finishers, Calvert Street and Fritz Johansen, returned to finish first-and-second on August 19 at the same Allowance N1X class level. The stalking style that has suited him well this year should be on display with David’s Memory stretching out from a sprint to route and Brimstoned and Spanish Hombre forwardly placed on or near the early lead. He has bounced back with three works including a sharp five furlong spin in 1:01 ⅖ on August 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington caught him “feeling very good waiting on stakes winner Estrechada going the last 1/4 in 23.4.” With a stalking style that suits the pace for this race and hopefully a clear ground saving trip under regular rider Joe Talamo I expect Trifecta to spring the minor upset to start the final Saturday of the meet.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) TRIFECTA at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-6, 7-11. Small reverse for each.

Race 7: Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, 7 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies

SPECTATOR (#3, 5-2) is the morning line favorite but the belief in this corner is she could possibly go off as either the second or third choice with plenty of attention centered around two impressive maiden winners Moonshine Memories and Just A Smidge. This homebred daughter of excellent freshman sire Jimmy Creed is undefeated in two starts and she has shown a terrific burst of acceleration in the stretch to indicate the additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue. She broke her maiden in her first start on June 23 rallying from off the pace behind a four-horse speed duel early to win by 5-¼ widening lengths at a generous 9-1 earning a respectable 68 Beyer Speed Figure. The strength of that race was more impressive than the final speed figure would indicate in the most productive two-year old maiden race of the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita.The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 60, 60, 61, and 66. When she made her second career start on August 5 in the Grade 2 Sorrento she was my best bet of the day based not only her visually impressive maiden victory but also impressive July 29 five furlong work in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Ran clear from older barn mate Mag The Mighty with a sharp late kick in 36.2, 100.3 getting passed by the 4f duo of King Eddie and Johnny Be Bueno (both O'Neil) out in 113.1. Plenty of upside here.” Despite this visually impressive move and defeating a key race field, she was sent off as the 4-1 third choice behind impressive maiden winner Diamonds and Pearls and the undefeated Surrender Now and she showed new dimension by taking it to her rivals from the start and never looked back. Run over a main track that favored speed, Spectator “pressed the pace between runners down the backstretch, dueled in the far turn, headed briefly, dashed away at the top of the stretch, opened up, ridden out.” The impressive part about this victory was the extent of the fast early fractions had on Spectator’s pace rivals. The fractions of 21.93 and 45.05 earned above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+18, +11) and those splits saw her pace rivals weaken to finish third beaten 9-¾ lengths, sixth beaten 29-¾ lengths, and seventh and last beaten 48 lengths. She has been pointed specifically for this race by the meets leading trainer Phil D’Amato and she continues to train like a filly with plenty of promise ahead with three works including a near bullet five furlong move in 59 ⅕ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ flashing a “Big late rally with older barn mate Towards The Light in 37.0, 59.4 (22.4 LQ). Filly is still strong as ever; Theriot up.” This chesnut filly can either lead and dispute the early pace outside of likely leader Moonshine Memories or settle just off it if a speed duel develops and this versatility gives jockey Jamie Theriot plenty of options as she might be slightly overlooked in this talent laden field for the Del Mar Debutante as my BEST BET on the card.

The Play:

WIN bet on (3) SPECTATOR at 3-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 3-5. Small reverse.

$5 Pick 3: 3 w/ 1, 2 w/ 4, 6, 13 = 1 x 2 x 3 x $5 = $30

$4 Pick 3: 5 w/ 1, 2 w/ 4, 6, 13 = 1 x 2 x 3 x $4 = $24

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year olds

MAJOR CABBIE (#2, 6-1) is a first time starter that will be going against St. Patrick’s Day a full brother to 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in his career debut thirteen days ago and earn the field’s highest last race 81 Beyer Speed Figure and 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Despite those credentials of the post time favorite, everything I have seen from Major Cabbie on a pedigree standpoint, trainer profile, and more importantly his workouts over this Del Mar main track and when you combine that with price that will be around the 5-1 area or higher than the correct play is take the price on this bay colt by excellent debut sire Into Mischief. He was purchased at the Ocala Breeders Sale April two-year old in training sale for $260,000 where he breezed two furlongs in 21 ⅖ and that purchase price is above the sire’s average price of $209,200 for his progeny. He is by 14% debut sire out of the dam Love Catcher who was unraced but produced five starters with three winners including two-year old winner Love Conquers. Trainer Dan Hendricks is not known for his debuting two-year olds here at Del Mar and the reason for that is because he rarely debuts them this early. In the past five-years, he has had only two starters that were two-year olds make their career debut sprinting on the main track here at Del Mar and none of them hit the board. However, Dan Hendricks successfully trained the three-year old, Morgan S, to break his maiden in his debut on August 18 here at Del Mar with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. His stablemate is important to mention in this discussion because on August 2 he worked in company with Major Cabbie where he went three furlongs from the gate in 34 ⅘ with the latter getting outworked by his older stablemate. Since that move, he has come back with four more works including a visually impressive six furlong move on August 15 in 1:12 ⅕ that saw today’s jockey Drayden Van Dyke aboard for the work and he did it very easily with ears pricking back and forth early and finishing with plenty of power towards the wire, and galloping out with energy in reserve (August 15 - Major Cabbie Work). In addition, National Turf’s Andy Harrington has been impressed by this bay colt in his morning training giving him consecutive B moves for his August 15 and August 21 works. He is bred for speed over a distance that favors that style, has worked in tremendous fashion towards his career debut, and for an underrated trainer with first time starters makes Major Cabbie the upset play to begin the final Pick 4 on a Saturday here at Del Mar.

The Play:

WIN bet on (2) MAJOR CABBIE at 5-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 2-1. Small reverse.

Small Exacta: 2-3. No reverse.

Race 9: Grade 2 John C. Mabee, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

MRS. MCDOUGAL (#6, 5-1) was defeated as the 4-5 post time favorite in the restricted Osunitas Stakes on July 21 where she finished third beaten 2-lengths behind today’s rival Madame Stripes and next time out winner Corps De Ballet. I believe there are reasons to excuse that defeat none more important than the fact this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was returning from 300-day layoff and her form from last year gives this bay mare reasons to respect this Richard Mandella trainee. Last year, she won two of four starts with her two defeats happen in two prestigious Grade 1 events: Just A Game behind the runaway pace pressing winner Celestine where she finished third as the beaten favorite and Diana behind her previous stablemate Dacita. The last time she visited the winner’s circle happen on September 24 at Belmont Park where she was sent off as the 1-1 choice in the Grade 3 Noble  Damsel and she took advantage of ideal conditions en route to earning career best 101 Beyer Speed Figure and 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She took control of the early lead from the start and set controlled pace through slow fractions designated by the blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and never looked back to win by two lengths over her previous stablemate Zendaya who came back to win the Grade 2 Goldikova at Santa Anita in her next start. That race would be her last race under Chad Brown as she was transferred to Richard Mandella barn and should not make her first start for her new conditioner until July 21, 2017 in a restricted overnight stakes where she was sent off at 4-5 and she finished a respectable third beaten only 2-lengths where she needed the race. According to Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, she “settled on the outside in midpack, confidently ridden into the turn, quickening when asked turning for home, but unable to get close to the top two in the stretch.” Although the Trip Note writer stated that she is probably best at one-mile, I believe this race was used strictly as a prep because jockey Flavien Prat elected to rate her off a moderate early pace and she finished under her own power to the wire. In addition to the long layoff, she covered 47ft and 17ft more respectively than the first two finishers, Madame Stripes and Corps De Ballet. She has returned with four more works capped off by a best of eight six furlong move in 1:12 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating she was “best over Antioch going the last 5f in 59.4. Was pulling nicely early; plenty of speed still evident.” TimeformUS pace projector feel that Mrs McDougal will be on or near the early lead along with Hillhouse High and that should give her a tactical advantage over stalkers and closers such as Decked Out, Cambodia, and Goodyearforroses.

The Play:

WIN bet on (6) MRS. MCDOUGAL at 4-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-4, 6-13. Small reverse for each.

Race 11: Maiden Special Weight, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up

TANIKO (#7, 5-1) is a horse that requires a lot of imagination especially when you look at this horse on paper it would appear he would be a throw out. He has lost his two starts by a combined margin of 34-½ lengths and has defeated only one horse to the wire. He will now make his first start off a 230-day layoff and based strictly on those points he would be an automatic toss. However, previous form on the main track does not pertain when they switch to a new surface especially a surface that Taniko is bred to adore and the meets leading trainer, Phil D’Amato, strengths is horses switching from dirt to turf in a maiden turf route and this $260,000 Fasig Tipton purchase is making that same move. As mentioned earlier, this son of Gio Ponti has shown very little in two starts on the main track as he failed to pass a single horse beaten 23-lengths in his career debut on November 25, 2016 here at Del Mar behind the gate to wire winner Prime Attraction. In his next start on January 15, 2017 he remained on the main track even though the race was originally scheduled to be run on the turf, trailed early behind a very slow early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (-17, -11), came out into the stretch, and passed only one horse without threatening anyone beaten 9-½ lengths. He will now make his first start in more than six months but plenty of changes would suggest that he might be capable of turning around. Firstly, he will be switching to the turf for the first time and he is half brother to three turf winners and two of them are Graded Stakes winners that you might be familiar. Vyjack winner of two of nine starts on the turf including last year’s Grade 2 City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita and recently was second in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile behind Blackjack Cat. The most famous starter from the dam Life Happened is Tepin the 2015 Breeders Cup Mile winner and 2016 Group 1 Queen Anne winner at Royal Ascot and overall won ten of seventeen starts on the turf. Secondly, trainer Phil D’Amato brings him back as a new gelding on the turf in a maiden special weight route and in the past five years here at Del Mar he connects at 29% rate (14/4-2-1) with his starters switching from dirt to turf in a maiden special weight turf route and he has striked twice with that move this meet. Spiritual Warrior (August 3, 2017, $4.70-1) and Troublewithatee (August 19, 2017, $5.60-1) with today’s rider Corey Nakatani riding him for the first time. He comes back with nine works dating back to June 28 at Los Alamitos capped off by a back to back B moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including six furlong move in 1:13 flat that he stated “Nice kick while best over Holy Whirly Wind in 37.0, 100.2 (23.2 LQ) galloping out in 113.1. Looks improved.” The switch to turf where he is bred to adore for a trainer that excels with that maneuver and training like a horse that has improved with the time away makes Taniko an intriguing upset possibility in the finale.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) TANIKO at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 7-4, 7-8, 7-12. Small reverse for each.

Two Year Olds and Top Class Turf Racing Highlight Del Mar's Opening Day

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies

There is not enough data to make a TimeformUS pace projector for this race but there is plenty of pedigree, workout information, and trainer angles found in Formulator to make this race a playable race in the first leg of the opening day Pick 6 and final leg of the meets first Pick 5.

Two highly regarded first time starters that were the highest priced by their respective stallions will be the focus of my play in this excellent maiden race. JUST A SMIDGE (#8) will get the top preference based on trainer Bob Baffert’s superb record of debuting two-year old maidens here at Del Mar, the competitive bidding at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-year old in training sale, and glowing workout reports from National Turf’s Andy Harrington gives her the slight edge over Varanasi. The daughter of thirteen-percent debut sire Into Mischief was part of a heated auction at the May Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-year old in training sale where the hammer closed at $425,000 which was tied as the highest price two-year old by Into Mischief at the sale and was tied for sixth overall in the highest priced two-year olds sold at the sale. Trainer Bob Baffert has already sent out two debuting maiden two-year olds to win this year and both went off as the favorite: Diamondsandpearls (July 2, 1-2, 70 Beyer Speed Figure) and Zulfikhar (July 7, 3-5, 82 Beyer Speed Figure). However, Del Mar is where trainer Bob Baffert unleashes his best two-year olds. In the past five years, he has won 28% clip with debuting two-year olds in a maiden special weight dirt sprint here at Del Mar and last summer had FIVE two-year olds that made their debut a winning one here at Del Mar including American Cleopatra who went off at 7-1 in her debut. She comes into her debut with three consecutive B works from National Turf’s Andy Harrington but it is his comments about her works that really caught my attention. She worked five furlongs from the gate in 59.2 where she flashed “Nice speed from the blocks inside speedy older barn mate Pretty Owl trying hard while a bit the second best in 23.4, 46.4, 59.4. Plenty of grit here,” and concluded her work tab with another five furlong move from the gate in 1:00 ⅕ where she “Broke well waiting on older barn mate Zipman until ready, drawing clear in 23.4, 47.1, 59.4. Handy roan.” Drawn outside with plenty of early speed from the gate to be forward factor, she is definite must use and appears ready to roll from the box.

Trainer Richard Mandella has won only once in his previous five starters that were two-year olds that made there debuting sprinting on the Del Mar main track, but VARANASI (#3) checks all the boxes that I would look for in a debut winning profile. She cost $385,000 at the September 2016 yearling sales and that price was the highest price of the fifty-three colts or fillies by Jimmy Creed at the sale. Moreover, she owns a terrific win early pedigree as her dam, Yearly Report, broke her maiden in her career debut by four-lengths earning 87 Beyer Speed Figure and she has passed that winning habit to her foals. She has produced three winners from five starters including Condo Commando who won three of four starts as a two-year old including the Grade I Spinaway. The sire Jimmy Creed is off to a fast start as a stallion with six winners from seventeen starters but more importantly THREE of them won their career debut: Wall of Compassion (July 7, 2017, $5.80-1), Spectator (June 23, 2017, $9.80-1), and Cajun Creed (June 17, 2017, $1.10-1). She enters this race with four consecutive B works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as with Just A Smidge, the comments from Andy really caught my attention. She worked five furlongs in 1:01.3 on July 12 where Andy caught her working with “Prat up; waited mid-stretch on a mate moving away in 36.3, 101.3 out well in 114.2. Looks fit for debut.”

The Play: These two are the second and third choices on the morning line and if you are playing the Pick 5 or starting the Pick 6 I will recommend using these two horses. For the purposes of betting this race I will only recommend an Exacta box between my top two choices.

Main Exacta Box: 3, 8

Race 6: Allowance N2X, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will not favor a specific running style but a glance at the likely pace sees the horse drawn on the rail, Bert’s Melody, on an uncontested early lead with horses such as Dynamic Misses K and Moonless Sky chasing Bert’s Melody in the first flight. Family Meeting, Hiking, and Shehastheritestuff will be charging with their late run in the stretch.

Nodiac owns the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (89) and Hiking owns the top last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (113) with Family Meeting and Nodiac own the second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (112). Bert’s Melody owns the field’s highest early pace rating in the field (108) and Family Meeting owns the field’s highest late pace rating (110) in the field.

When I handicap this race it boils down to two horses with contrasting running style as my top choice will be on the front end and my second choice will be charging from off the pace with a big late kick. On paper, BERT’S MELODY (#1), looks terrible on form. After all, she has been defeated by a combined twenty-six and half lengths in her last two starts and stopped badly in her most recent start where jockey Brice Blanc eased her to the wire. Despite those defeats, the circumstances surrounding each defeat contributed to her poor performances and now in her third start of 2017 this daughter Bertrando should be set to rebound to a winning performance as she is projected to be loose on an uncontested lead. After she won last year’s edition of the Fran’s Valentine Stakes, she was sent to the sidelines and did not run for the remainder of 2016. She returned from a 294-day layoff in the Irish O’Brien Stakes where she was running down the hill for the third time and she was winless in two previous tries over that layout suggesting that return race was designed as prep to stretch out to two turns. She showed her early speed but was out-sprinted for the lead by the dueling leaders Emmy and I and favored Enola Gray. She continued tracking the favored winner down the hill before being in an all out drive crossing the dirt into the main turf course and was wrapped up in the stretch finishing thirteen and three-quarter lengths behind Enola Gray who returned two starts later to win the Grade III Wilshire Handicap with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure and 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Sean McCarthy trainee returned from a brief eighty-five day layoff on June 11 where she stretched out to one-mile and she delivered another sub-par performance finishing twelve and three-quarter lengths behind opportunistic stalking winner Corps De Ballet. This defeat can be contributed to being involved in a fast pace speed duel with two other one dimensional front runners. She broke quickly and set the pace into the first turn with pressure from one of the front runners Ticaboo and never got a breather as the other front runner Mangita pressured her as those two rivals tore through fractions of 23.01, 45.98, and six furlongs in 1:09.93 seconds. When the field reached the top of the stretch, Bert’s Melody was finished and was wisely wrapped up towards the wire. She will now make her second race off the layoff and bounced back with two works including an excellent five furlong move on July 13 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “ Relaxed spin through the lane after showing her usual speed with Blanc up in 34.4, 100.4. Always dangerous early gas.” More importantly, Ticaboo and Mangita, the two front runners that pressed her through those fast fractions on June 11 are not entered and she should be loose on an uncontested lead through more relaxed fractions. If allowed to dictate her own terms on the front end she will be tough rival to run down at a distance she has yet to finish no worse than second in two starts.

My second choice FAMILY MEETING (#3) has been facing tougher competition in five starts in the East Coast and this race is actually a drop down in class when you consider the company she faced this year. The home-bred daughter of Sky Mesa finished seventh beaten nine and half lengths in the Grade II Hillsborough on March 11 in her previous start at today’s 1-⅛ mile distance where she faced classy group of fillies and mares on the turf. The sixth-place finisher Light in Paris returned to win the Plenty of Grace Stakes on April 15 at Aqueduct and then ran second in the Grade III Eatontown Stakes on June 3 at Monmouth Park earning Beyer Speed Figures of 95 and 92 respectively. The winner Dickinson returned to win the Grade I Jenny Wiley and finish third beaten only three-quarters of a length in the Grade 1 Just A Game earning Beyer Speed Figures of 100 and 98 respectively. After a win versus Florida-breds in the Pleasant Acres Stallion Distaff Turf, she returned versus open company at this class level on Preakness Stakes day at Pimlico and ran fifth beaten only a length in what has returned to be a “key” race. The fourth-place finisher, Gone Away, returned to win Allowance N2X at Laurel by five and half lengths earning improved 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The third-place finisher, Tricky Escape, returned to finish fourth beaten two-lengths in the Grade III Eatontown Stakes on June 3 at Monmouth Park earning improved 91 Beyer Speed Figure. Finally, the runner up Arraign returned to win Allowance N2X at Delaware Park with 82 Beyer Speed Figure. She finished third on June 17 in Florida-bred Stakes at Gulfstream Park earning the second highest last race 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Tom Proctor trainee has a huge late kick and is reunited with Drayden Van Dyke who rode her to a 37-1 upset win over this turf course in the Jimmy Durante Stakes as a two-year old.

The Play: This race boils down to Bert’s Melody on the front end, Family Meeting charging from off the pace, and red hot Moonless Sky who is 4/3-1-0 for trainer Eddie Truman and Kent Desormeaux. I will be focusing on the Exacta and WIN bet on Bert’s Melody if we get anywhere near her 6-1 morning line.

WIN bet on (1) BERT’S MELODY at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-7. Small reverse.

Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-7. Small reverse.

Main Pick 3: 1, 3 / 2, 5, 7, 10 / 4 = 2 x 4 x 1 x $2 = $16   

Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward

TimeformUS pace projector anticipates this one-mile Allowance event will not favor a specific running style but based on my review of the entrants in this field only two horses have enough early speed to take this field gate to wire. Absolutely Stylish will go straight to the front end but will be pressed on the outside by another stylish maiden winner Gato Del Oro as those two horses are the main early pace in this race. Karma King and Tell Me Story will be out sprinted for the early lead and will be forced to stalk this leading duo. Giant Expectations will be sitting in first flight waiting to pounce on the two leaders into the far turn. Miner’s Light, Quiet Dude, and Saint Dermot are closers looking for a pace meltdown in the stretch.

Absolutely Stylish owns the field’s highest last race Beyer Speed Figure (92) and Gato Del Oro owns the highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (113) in the field. Absolutely Stylish owns the field’s highest TimeformUS early pace rating (122) and Magical Mystery owns the field’s highest TimeformUS late pace rating (103).

I am playing against third choice on the morning line Giant Expectations who finished behind subsequent Breeders Cup Classic winner Arrogate last year at Santa Anita. The New York-bred son of Frost Giant shipped to Belmont Park to take advantage of that state’s New York bred program and romped by a combined twelve and quarter lengths in his last two starts. However a closer inspection leaves plenty of question marks shipping back to Southern California facing open company. He broke his maiden by nine and three-quarter lengths on May 29 earning a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and defeated a sub-par field that saw six horses behind him return and only two of them (one second and one third) finish in the money with the four others finishing off the board in their next start. The Peter Eurton trainee returned ten days later to humble New York bred Allowance N1X rivals easily duplicating his 89 Beyer Speed Figure. The belief is that this colt would be better suited shipping back to Saratoga and tackling New York bred company where he is proven to be competitive.

I narrowed this field to four horses including the two morning line favorites but the best price and proven form at this class level happens to be the highest price of my four contenders. KARMA KING (#2) is a Del Mar horse for course with a record of 5-3-2-0 and has affinity for winning or finishing second with eleven first or seconds from twenty-two career starts. The Pure Prize made his last start at Del Mar on more than a year ago on July 15, 2016 at this same class level and distance where he ran second beaten length and half behind the winner Grazen Sky but this gelding won the early pace battle but lost the war in a game effort in defeat. In that race he stalked the dueling leaders between longshot J Serino and tepid post time favorite Westfest as those two locked heads into a torrid 22.21 second opening quarter and Karma King moved up into that fast pace to press the favorite through a 46.54 second half mile. The Brian Koriner trainee took over the lead midway on the far turn and faced a brief challenge from the opportunistic stalker Forest Blue and turned that rival away in the stretch but the early pace took its toll as Grazen Sky rallied from last to blow past Karma King to win by length and half. He earned a 87 Beyer Speed Figure and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure but take nothing away from Karma King’s runner-up performance because he pressed a very fast pace earning way above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+33, +18). This effort took a lot out of this gelding because he was not seen for the remainder of the year. He made his long awaited return to the races off a 338-day layoff on June 18 at this same class level and distance and with his previous record here at Del Mar the belief in this corner is that race was a prep race for this event and he ran an excellent race in defeat considering the extended layoff. According to the HR Trip Notes, Karma King “led early then set a measured pace, kicked away leaving the backstretch, collared leaving the far turn, lost the lead passing mid stretch, never stopped trying, out finished late.” The HR Trip Note writer believes “he might have held even longer had he had a work over the track.” Although the race was not visually impressive with the first six horses separated by two and three-quarter lengths, Karma King showed he has kept his form in tact with his game fourth-place finish beaten less than two-lengths. He should move forward in his second race off the very long layoff and with three works since that come back effort. In addition, he should get a great stalking trip sitting behind the two morning line favorites, Gato Del Oro and Absolutely Stylish, and at giant 15-1 on the morning line he the price play in this competitive Allowance race at Del Mar.

In my exotics I will use three horses that do not include Giant Expectations. My second choice is another price horse, MAGICAL MYSTERY (#10) who broke his maiden off a 177-day layoff in his first start for trainer Scott Hansen on February 12 at Santa Anita where he defeated a terrible field as the second, fourth, and fifth place finishers are now combined one-for-twenty nine in their career. After a failed turf try in his next start, he returned to the main track on May 20 and ran a strong second at this same class level in what has returned to be a “key” race. According to the HR Trip Notes, Magical Mystery “Raced at the back of the pack onto the backstretch, drifted back as the field traveled, improved past the half-mile pole, made a big move along the rail in the far turn, angled out mid stretch, ran at the leader, cut the margin late.” His runner-up performance looks even better when you consider the winner, West Coast, returned to win the Easy Goer Stakes and Grade III Los Alamitos Derby with improved Beyer Speed Figures of 99 and 100 and fifth-place finisher My Italian Babbo returned to win Allowance N1X with career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Unbridled’s Song gelding will be finishing in the lane. GATO DEL ORO (#5) earned the field’s second highest last race 89 Beyer Speed Figure on June 10 and could not have been more impressive in victory as described by HR Trip Note writer. The son of Medaglia D’Oro “broke slow, being pinched back at the start, making his way under a hold along the inside to lead after a 1⁄4 mile, gradually putting away his pace rivals in the turn, kicking home strong enough while slowly drifting out to keep the late challenger at bay.” The strength of that win was flattered when his pace rival in that maiden race, The Rule of King’s, came back on June 23, dropped in for a $75,000 claiming price, and broke his maiden by length and three-quarters earning career best 84 Beyer Speed Figure. He will be the one horse closest to morning line favorite ABSOLUTELY STYLISH (#7). The latter finished a better than looked fourth behind undefeated and now retired Mastery in his career debut last October at Santa Anita. He returned from a 189-day layoff on April 29 and broke his maiden in visually impressive where he won by neck over subsequent next time out winner Honor and Courage who finished seven and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field. The field’s projected leader will take some catching as TimeformUS leader in early pace rating.

The Play: With our top choice Karma King at 15-1 on the morning line and likely will go off above 8-1 come post time the belief is he will at least finish in the top three in his second race off almost a one-year layoff.

WIN bet on (2) KARMA KING at 8-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-5, 2-7, 2-10. Small reverse for each.

Trifecta part-wheel: 5, 7, 10 / 5, 7, 10 / 2

Race 8: Oceanside Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

TimeformUS pace projector believes this race will develop at a very fast early pace and based on a review of the entrants in this race a fast pace is highly likely. Rockin Rudy will go straight to the front but will find company for the lead with Arms Runner right up with the early leaders. In behind that trio are another set of front running types in Vending Machine, All About Mike, and Placido. The horses that will benefit if a pace meltdown happens are Bird is the Word, Bowies Hero, and Fortune of War.

Arms Runner enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (95) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (116). The leader in TimeformUS early pace rating is Rockin Rudy (111) and the leader in late rating is Bird is the Word (99).

I am playing against the undefeated Arms Runner. He defeated a terrible field of maidens in his career debut where from the eight horses that ran back only three of them hit the board in there next start (one second-place finish and two third-place finishes). Last time in the Desert Code he had a perfect stalking trip behind red coded TimeformUS early pace (fast fractions) and rallied to win defeating another sub-par field that only produced two third-place finishes. He will be a short price trying two turns for the first time which is not a strong angle for the Peter Miller barn here a Del Mar. Formulator Fact: trainer Peter Miller wins at only 6% (32/2-0-4) with his starters trying two turns for the first time on the Jimmy Durante turf course here at Del Mar.

In my opinion the key prep race for the Oceanside Stakes happen on May 6 at Santa Anita in the Singletary Stakes where four of the entrants ran in that race and appear in the traditional opening day feature race. That race featured a torrid early pace that saw the leaders earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and set it up perfectly for the closers. I believe a similar setup is likely and my top three choices are the three best closers in this race lead by the winner of the Singletary Stakes, BOWIE’S HERO (#4). The son of Artie Schiller is right at home over this Del Mar turf course where he won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes last September at generous 9-2. After going off form in two subsequent starts, he returned from a six month layoff in the Singletary Stakes where despite a very fast pace to set up for his late kick he had to overcame terrible start that almost saw his rider Thiago Pereira get unseated at the start. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes for that race, Bowie’s Hero “broke on his face at the start of the contest, picked himself up to race at the rear of the field, waited on his pilot into the far turn, loaded, taken eight-wide into the stretch, stormed home over the top, joined a rival mid-stretch, put him away, safe to the wire.” The Phil D’Amato trainee earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure (89) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (114) and the form of that race was validated when the fourth, fifth, and ninth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 94, 87, and 88 respectively. This performance gave his connections plenty of confidence to enter Bowie’s Hero in the Grade III Pennine Ridge at Belmont Park on June 3 where he was out classed where he split a seven horse field despite navigating a clean ground saving trip around both turns and could not quicken to run down Oscar Performance who came back to win the Grade I Belmont Derby earning improved 96 Beyer Speed Figure and duplicate 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. He returns from a forty-six day layoff but showed he can run well fresh as a two-year old in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes and Singletary Stakes. Drawn well, gets sufficient amount of early speed to set up for his late kick, and turning back to his preferred one-mile distance should suit Bowie’s Hero as the winner of the Oceanside Stakes.

I will be using only two others underneath in my exacta plays and both are closers that should benefit from the expected fast early pace. BIRD IS THE WORD (#2) ran second behind our top choice Bowie’s Hero in the Singletary Stakes on May 6 at Santa Anita and he ran second in his most recent start on June 30 versus straight three-year olds at today’s one mile distance and he did not have the smoothest of trips. According to the HR Trip Notes, the son of Birdstone “was prominent early, hung out four-deep into the first turn, settled in the second flight of runners three-deep, picked up his feet three-deep in the far turn, forced six-wide into the stretch, leveled off, ran to the wire, could not stave off the winner.” The amount of ground lost is also reflected in Trakus where he ran forty-four more feet then the winner Double Touch. He gets significant turf rider upgrade to Gary Stevens and he has tactical speed so his jockey can place himself anywhere for his patent late kick. FORTUNE OF WAR (#12) just broke his maiden in his eleventh career start on April 30 where he he put it altogether to deliver a smashing late kick overcoming a slow early pace that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures to win by length and a half coming home the final quarter of a mile in 22.68 seconds. The HR Trip Notes stated that this was “visually impressive, he has a chance to go up the ladder and this race should prove productive.” Sure enough this maiden race proved to be a “key” event as third, fourth, and tenth place finishers all came back to win earning improved Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures in the process. Corey Nakatani takes over in the irons and I expect a patent late charge to the wire.

The Play: The anticipated pace scenario and my stand against Arms Runner will lead my wagers structured with the following bets.

WIN bet on (4) BOWIE’S HERO at 2-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 4-2, 4-12. Small reverse for each.