Tuesday 18 July 2017

Two Year Olds and Top Class Turf Racing Highlight Del Mar's Opening Day

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies

There is not enough data to make a TimeformUS pace projector for this race but there is plenty of pedigree, workout information, and trainer angles found in Formulator to make this race a playable race in the first leg of the opening day Pick 6 and final leg of the meets first Pick 5.

Two highly regarded first time starters that were the highest priced by their respective stallions will be the focus of my play in this excellent maiden race. JUST A SMIDGE (#8) will get the top preference based on trainer Bob Baffert’s superb record of debuting two-year old maidens here at Del Mar, the competitive bidding at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-year old in training sale, and glowing workout reports from National Turf’s Andy Harrington gives her the slight edge over Varanasi. The daughter of thirteen-percent debut sire Into Mischief was part of a heated auction at the May Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-year old in training sale where the hammer closed at $425,000 which was tied as the highest price two-year old by Into Mischief at the sale and was tied for sixth overall in the highest priced two-year olds sold at the sale. Trainer Bob Baffert has already sent out two debuting maiden two-year olds to win this year and both went off as the favorite: Diamondsandpearls (July 2, 1-2, 70 Beyer Speed Figure) and Zulfikhar (July 7, 3-5, 82 Beyer Speed Figure). However, Del Mar is where trainer Bob Baffert unleashes his best two-year olds. In the past five years, he has won 28% clip with debuting two-year olds in a maiden special weight dirt sprint here at Del Mar and last summer had FIVE two-year olds that made their debut a winning one here at Del Mar including American Cleopatra who went off at 7-1 in her debut. She comes into her debut with three consecutive B works from National Turf’s Andy Harrington but it is his comments about her works that really caught my attention. She worked five furlongs from the gate in 59.2 where she flashed “Nice speed from the blocks inside speedy older barn mate Pretty Owl trying hard while a bit the second best in 23.4, 46.4, 59.4. Plenty of grit here,” and concluded her work tab with another five furlong move from the gate in 1:00 ⅕ where she “Broke well waiting on older barn mate Zipman until ready, drawing clear in 23.4, 47.1, 59.4. Handy roan.” Drawn outside with plenty of early speed from the gate to be forward factor, she is definite must use and appears ready to roll from the box.

Trainer Richard Mandella has won only once in his previous five starters that were two-year olds that made there debuting sprinting on the Del Mar main track, but VARANASI (#3) checks all the boxes that I would look for in a debut winning profile. She cost $385,000 at the September 2016 yearling sales and that price was the highest price of the fifty-three colts or fillies by Jimmy Creed at the sale. Moreover, she owns a terrific win early pedigree as her dam, Yearly Report, broke her maiden in her career debut by four-lengths earning 87 Beyer Speed Figure and she has passed that winning habit to her foals. She has produced three winners from five starters including Condo Commando who won three of four starts as a two-year old including the Grade I Spinaway. The sire Jimmy Creed is off to a fast start as a stallion with six winners from seventeen starters but more importantly THREE of them won their career debut: Wall of Compassion (July 7, 2017, $5.80-1), Spectator (June 23, 2017, $9.80-1), and Cajun Creed (June 17, 2017, $1.10-1). She enters this race with four consecutive B works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as with Just A Smidge, the comments from Andy really caught my attention. She worked five furlongs in 1:01.3 on July 12 where Andy caught her working with “Prat up; waited mid-stretch on a mate moving away in 36.3, 101.3 out well in 114.2. Looks fit for debut.”

The Play: These two are the second and third choices on the morning line and if you are playing the Pick 5 or starting the Pick 6 I will recommend using these two horses. For the purposes of betting this race I will only recommend an Exacta box between my top two choices.

Main Exacta Box: 3, 8

Race 6: Allowance N2X, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will not favor a specific running style but a glance at the likely pace sees the horse drawn on the rail, Bert’s Melody, on an uncontested early lead with horses such as Dynamic Misses K and Moonless Sky chasing Bert’s Melody in the first flight. Family Meeting, Hiking, and Shehastheritestuff will be charging with their late run in the stretch.

Nodiac owns the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (89) and Hiking owns the top last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (113) with Family Meeting and Nodiac own the second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (112). Bert’s Melody owns the field’s highest early pace rating in the field (108) and Family Meeting owns the field’s highest late pace rating (110) in the field.

When I handicap this race it boils down to two horses with contrasting running style as my top choice will be on the front end and my second choice will be charging from off the pace with a big late kick. On paper, BERT’S MELODY (#1), looks terrible on form. After all, she has been defeated by a combined twenty-six and half lengths in her last two starts and stopped badly in her most recent start where jockey Brice Blanc eased her to the wire. Despite those defeats, the circumstances surrounding each defeat contributed to her poor performances and now in her third start of 2017 this daughter Bertrando should be set to rebound to a winning performance as she is projected to be loose on an uncontested lead. After she won last year’s edition of the Fran’s Valentine Stakes, she was sent to the sidelines and did not run for the remainder of 2016. She returned from a 294-day layoff in the Irish O’Brien Stakes where she was running down the hill for the third time and she was winless in two previous tries over that layout suggesting that return race was designed as prep to stretch out to two turns. She showed her early speed but was out-sprinted for the lead by the dueling leaders Emmy and I and favored Enola Gray. She continued tracking the favored winner down the hill before being in an all out drive crossing the dirt into the main turf course and was wrapped up in the stretch finishing thirteen and three-quarter lengths behind Enola Gray who returned two starts later to win the Grade III Wilshire Handicap with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure and 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Sean McCarthy trainee returned from a brief eighty-five day layoff on June 11 where she stretched out to one-mile and she delivered another sub-par performance finishing twelve and three-quarter lengths behind opportunistic stalking winner Corps De Ballet. This defeat can be contributed to being involved in a fast pace speed duel with two other one dimensional front runners. She broke quickly and set the pace into the first turn with pressure from one of the front runners Ticaboo and never got a breather as the other front runner Mangita pressured her as those two rivals tore through fractions of 23.01, 45.98, and six furlongs in 1:09.93 seconds. When the field reached the top of the stretch, Bert’s Melody was finished and was wisely wrapped up towards the wire. She will now make her second race off the layoff and bounced back with two works including an excellent five furlong move on July 13 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “ Relaxed spin through the lane after showing her usual speed with Blanc up in 34.4, 100.4. Always dangerous early gas.” More importantly, Ticaboo and Mangita, the two front runners that pressed her through those fast fractions on June 11 are not entered and she should be loose on an uncontested lead through more relaxed fractions. If allowed to dictate her own terms on the front end she will be tough rival to run down at a distance she has yet to finish no worse than second in two starts.

My second choice FAMILY MEETING (#3) has been facing tougher competition in five starts in the East Coast and this race is actually a drop down in class when you consider the company she faced this year. The home-bred daughter of Sky Mesa finished seventh beaten nine and half lengths in the Grade II Hillsborough on March 11 in her previous start at today’s 1-⅛ mile distance where she faced classy group of fillies and mares on the turf. The sixth-place finisher Light in Paris returned to win the Plenty of Grace Stakes on April 15 at Aqueduct and then ran second in the Grade III Eatontown Stakes on June 3 at Monmouth Park earning Beyer Speed Figures of 95 and 92 respectively. The winner Dickinson returned to win the Grade I Jenny Wiley and finish third beaten only three-quarters of a length in the Grade 1 Just A Game earning Beyer Speed Figures of 100 and 98 respectively. After a win versus Florida-breds in the Pleasant Acres Stallion Distaff Turf, she returned versus open company at this class level on Preakness Stakes day at Pimlico and ran fifth beaten only a length in what has returned to be a “key” race. The fourth-place finisher, Gone Away, returned to win Allowance N2X at Laurel by five and half lengths earning improved 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The third-place finisher, Tricky Escape, returned to finish fourth beaten two-lengths in the Grade III Eatontown Stakes on June 3 at Monmouth Park earning improved 91 Beyer Speed Figure. Finally, the runner up Arraign returned to win Allowance N2X at Delaware Park with 82 Beyer Speed Figure. She finished third on June 17 in Florida-bred Stakes at Gulfstream Park earning the second highest last race 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Tom Proctor trainee has a huge late kick and is reunited with Drayden Van Dyke who rode her to a 37-1 upset win over this turf course in the Jimmy Durante Stakes as a two-year old.

The Play: This race boils down to Bert’s Melody on the front end, Family Meeting charging from off the pace, and red hot Moonless Sky who is 4/3-1-0 for trainer Eddie Truman and Kent Desormeaux. I will be focusing on the Exacta and WIN bet on Bert’s Melody if we get anywhere near her 6-1 morning line.

WIN bet on (1) BERT’S MELODY at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-7. Small reverse.
Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-7. Small reverse.

Main Pick 3: 1, 3 / 2, 5, 7, 10 / 4 = 2 x 4 x 1 x $2 = $16   
Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward

TimeformUS pace projector anticipates this one-mile Allowance event will not favor a specific running style but based on my review of the entrants in this field only two horses have enough early speed to take this field gate to wire. Absolutely Stylish will go straight to the front end but will be pressed on the outside by another stylish maiden winner Gato Del Oro as those two horses are the main early pace in this race. Karma King and Tell Me Story will be out sprinted for the early lead and will be forced to stalk this leading duo. Giant Expectations will be sitting in first flight waiting to pounce on the two leaders into the far turn. Miner’s Light, Quiet Dude, and Saint Dermot are closers looking for a pace meltdown in the stretch.

Absolutely Stylish owns the field’s highest last race Beyer Speed Figure (92) and Gato Del Oro owns the highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (113) in the field. Absolutely Stylish owns the field’s highest TimeformUS early pace rating (122) and Magical Mystery owns the field’s highest TimeformUS late pace rating (103).

I am playing against third choice on the morning line Giant Expectations who finished behind subsequent Breeders Cup Classic winner Arrogate last year at Santa Anita. The New York-bred son of Frost Giant shipped to Belmont Park to take advantage of that state’s New York bred program and romped by a combined twelve and quarter lengths in his last two starts. However a closer inspection leaves plenty of question marks shipping back to Southern California facing open company. He broke his maiden by nine and three-quarter lengths on May 29 earning a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and defeated a sub-par field that saw six horses behind him return and only two of them (one second and one third) finish in the money with the four others finishing off the board in their next start. The Peter Eurton trainee returned ten days later to humble New York bred Allowance N1X rivals easily duplicating his 89 Beyer Speed Figure. The belief is that this colt would be better suited shipping back to Saratoga and tackling New York bred company where he is proven to be competitive.

I narrowed this field to four horses including the two morning line favorites but the best price and proven form at this class level happens to be the highest price of my four contenders. KARMA KING (#2) is a Del Mar horse for course with a record of 5-3-2-0 and has affinity for winning or finishing second with eleven first or seconds from twenty-two career starts. The Pure Prize made his last start at Del Mar on more than a year ago on July 15, 2016 at this same class level and distance where he ran second beaten length and half behind the winner Grazen Sky but this gelding won the early pace battle but lost the war in a game effort in defeat. In that race he stalked the dueling leaders between longshot J Serino and tepid post time favorite Westfest as those two locked heads into a torrid 22.21 second opening quarter and Karma King moved up into that fast pace to press the favorite through a 46.54 second half mile. The Brian Koriner trainee took over the lead midway on the far turn and faced a brief challenge from the opportunistic stalker Forest Blue and turned that rival away in the stretch but the early pace took its toll as Grazen Sky rallied from last to blow past Karma King to win by length and half. He earned a 87 Beyer Speed Figure and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure but take nothing away from Karma King’s runner-up performance because he pressed a very fast pace earning way above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+33, +18). This effort took a lot out of this gelding because he was not seen for the remainder of the year. He made his long awaited return to the races off a 338-day layoff on June 18 at this same class level and distance and with his previous record here at Del Mar the belief in this corner is that race was a prep race for this event and he ran an excellent race in defeat considering the extended layoff. According to the HR Trip Notes, Karma King “led early then set a measured pace, kicked away leaving the backstretch, collared leaving the far turn, lost the lead passing mid stretch, never stopped trying, out finished late.” The HR Trip Note writer believes “he might have held even longer had he had a work over the track.” Although the race was not visually impressive with the first six horses separated by two and three-quarter lengths, Karma King showed he has kept his form in tact with his game fourth-place finish beaten less than two-lengths. He should move forward in his second race off the very long layoff and with three works since that come back effort. In addition, he should get a great stalking trip sitting behind the two morning line favorites, Gato Del Oro and Absolutely Stylish, and at giant 15-1 on the morning line he the price play in this competitive Allowance race at Del Mar.

In my exotics I will use three horses that do not include Giant Expectations. My second choice is another price horse, MAGICAL MYSTERY (#10) who broke his maiden off a 177-day layoff in his first start for trainer Scott Hansen on February 12 at Santa Anita where he defeated a terrible field as the second, fourth, and fifth place finishers are now combined one-for-twenty nine in their career. After a failed turf try in his next start, he returned to the main track on May 20 and ran a strong second at this same class level in what has returned to be a “key” race. According to the HR Trip Notes, Magical Mystery “Raced at the back of the pack onto the backstretch, drifted back as the field traveled, improved past the half-mile pole, made a big move along the rail in the far turn, angled out mid stretch, ran at the leader, cut the margin late.” His runner-up performance looks even better when you consider the winner, West Coast, returned to win the Easy Goer Stakes and Grade III Los Alamitos Derby with improved Beyer Speed Figures of 99 and 100 and fifth-place finisher My Italian Babbo returned to win Allowance N1X with career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Unbridled’s Song gelding will be finishing in the lane. GATO DEL ORO (#5) earned the field’s second highest last race 89 Beyer Speed Figure on June 10 and could not have been more impressive in victory as described by HR Trip Note writer. The son of Medaglia D’Oro “broke slow, being pinched back at the start, making his way under a hold along the inside to lead after a 1⁄4 mile, gradually putting away his pace rivals in the turn, kicking home strong enough while slowly drifting out to keep the late challenger at bay.” The strength of that win was flattered when his pace rival in that maiden race, The Rule of King’s, came back on June 23, dropped in for a $75,000 claiming price, and broke his maiden by length and three-quarters earning career best 84 Beyer Speed Figure. He will be the one horse closest to morning line favorite ABSOLUTELY STYLISH (#7). The latter finished a better than looked fourth behind undefeated and now retired Mastery in his career debut last October at Santa Anita. He returned from a 189-day layoff on April 29 and broke his maiden in visually impressive where he won by neck over subsequent next time out winner Honor and Courage who finished seven and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field. The field’s projected leader will take some catching as TimeformUS leader in early pace rating.

The Play: With our top choice Karma King at 15-1 on the morning line and likely will go off above 8-1 come post time the belief is he will at least finish in the top three in his second race off almost a one-year layoff.

WIN bet on (2) KARMA KING at 8-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-5, 2-7, 2-10. Small reverse for each.

Trifecta part-wheel: 5, 7, 10 / 5, 7, 10 / 2

Race 8: Oceanside Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

TimeformUS pace projector believes this race will develop at a very fast early pace and based on a review of the entrants in this race a fast pace is highly likely. Rockin Rudy will go straight to the front but will find company for the lead with Arms Runner right up with the early leaders. In behind that trio are another set of front running types in Vending Machine, All About Mike, and Placido. The horses that will benefit if a pace meltdown happens are Bird is the Word, Bowies Hero, and Fortune of War.

Arms Runner enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (95) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (116). The leader in TimeformUS early pace rating is Rockin Rudy (111) and the leader in late rating is Bird is the Word (99).

I am playing against the undefeated Arms Runner. He defeated a terrible field of maidens in his career debut where from the eight horses that ran back only three of them hit the board in there next start (one second-place finish and two third-place finishes). Last time in the Desert Code he had a perfect stalking trip behind red coded TimeformUS early pace (fast fractions) and rallied to win defeating another sub-par field that only produced two third-place finishes. He will be a short price trying two turns for the first time which is not a strong angle for the Peter Miller barn here a Del Mar. Formulator Fact: trainer Peter Miller wins at only 6% (32/2-0-4) with his starters trying two turns for the first time on the Jimmy Durante turf course here at Del Mar.

In my opinion the key prep race for the Oceanside Stakes happen on May 6 at Santa Anita in the Singletary Stakes where four of the entrants ran in that race and appear in the traditional opening day feature race. That race featured a torrid early pace that saw the leaders earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and set it up perfectly for the closers. I believe a similar setup is likely and my top three choices are the three best closers in this race lead by the winner of the Singletary Stakes, BOWIE’S HERO (#4). The son of Artie Schiller is right at home over this Del Mar turf course where he won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes last September at generous 9-2. After going off form in two subsequent starts, he returned from a six month layoff in the Singletary Stakes where despite a very fast pace to set up for his late kick he had to overcame terrible start that almost saw his rider Thiago Pereira get unseated at the start. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes for that race, Bowie’s Hero “broke on his face at the start of the contest, picked himself up to race at the rear of the field, waited on his pilot into the far turn, loaded, taken eight-wide into the stretch, stormed home over the top, joined a rival mid-stretch, put him away, safe to the wire.” The Phil D’Amato trainee earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure (89) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (114) and the form of that race was validated when the fourth, fifth, and ninth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 94, 87, and 88 respectively. This performance gave his connections plenty of confidence to enter Bowie’s Hero in the Grade III Pennine Ridge at Belmont Park on June 3 where he was out classed where he split a seven horse field despite navigating a clean ground saving trip around both turns and could not quicken to run down Oscar Performance who came back to win the Grade I Belmont Derby earning improved 96 Beyer Speed Figure and duplicate 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. He returns from a forty-six day layoff but showed he can run well fresh as a two-year old in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes and Singletary Stakes. Drawn well, gets sufficient amount of early speed to set up for his late kick, and turning back to his preferred one-mile distance should suit Bowie’s Hero as the winner of the Oceanside Stakes.

I will be using only two others underneath in my exacta plays and both are closers that should benefit from the expected fast early pace. BIRD IS THE WORD (#2) ran second behind our top choice Bowie’s Hero in the Singletary Stakes on May 6 at Santa Anita and he ran second in his most recent start on June 30 versus straight three-year olds at today’s one mile distance and he did not have the smoothest of trips. According to the HR Trip Notes, the son of Birdstone “was prominent early, hung out four-deep into the first turn, settled in the second flight of runners three-deep, picked up his feet three-deep in the far turn, forced six-wide into the stretch, leveled off, ran to the wire, could not stave off the winner.” The amount of ground lost is also reflected in Trakus where he ran forty-four more feet then the winner Double Touch. He gets significant turf rider upgrade to Gary Stevens and he has tactical speed so his jockey can place himself anywhere for his patent late kick. FORTUNE OF WAR (#12) just broke his maiden in his eleventh career start on April 30 where he he put it altogether to deliver a smashing late kick overcoming a slow early pace that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures to win by length and a half coming home the final quarter of a mile in 22.68 seconds. The HR Trip Notes stated that this was “visually impressive, he has a chance to go up the ladder and this race should prove productive.” Sure enough this maiden race proved to be a “key” event as third, fourth, and tenth place finishers all came back to win earning improved Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures in the process. Corey Nakatani takes over in the irons and I expect a patent late charge to the wire.

The Play: The anticipated pace scenario and my stand against Arms Runner will lead my wagers structured with the following bets.

WIN bet on (4) BOWIE’S HERO at 2-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 4-2, 4-12. Small reverse for each.



No comments:

Post a Comment