BEST BET: SPECTATOR (Race 7, 5-2)
Race 6: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and upward
TRIFECTA (#7, 5-1) is a horse that based on form might be shy of visiting the winner’s circle with six combined seconds or thirds from eighteen starts on the turf but this Any Given Saturday gelding enters this race in top form finishing first or second in two of three starts including an excellent runner-up performance over this turf course on July 28 here at Del Mar. The Mike Puype trainee has finished off the board only once and that happen two races back on June 17 where he was victimized by a very slow early pace and wide journey from start to finish. He was forced to break from post position eight in a eight horse field where he found himself three wide into and around the first turn and three wide down the backstretch chasing or pressing the eventual winner Hey Dude as that leader was able dictate slow early fractions earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He made a run to challenge the eventual winner three wide on the far turn and sustained that run to the top of the stretch where he flattened out on his run and weaken to finish seventh beaten five-lengths in a race where the second-and-eighth place finishers returned to win. Despite this defeat, his connections showed plenty of confidence keeping him in Allowance N1X on July 28 and he ran excellent race behind rally wide winner Oregon in a race that is better than the Blocked ⅛, split foes comment in your Daily Racing Form. According to the HR Trip Notes, Trifecta “ran along at the back of the main pack on the inside, under a hold on the inside of the 3rd flight heading into the far turn, in very tight for a 1/16th of a mile, exploding forward when finding room to be a clear 2nd.” In addition, Trip Note writer stated “he was unlucky to struggle for room in the stretch, but the way the winner ran, it is likely it did not matter this time.” This July 28 Allowance event returned to be “key” race with the winner finishing second in Allowance N2X on August 26 earning identical 89 Beyer Speed Figure and the fourth-and-fifth place finishers, Calvert Street and Fritz Johansen, returned to finish first-and-second on August 19 at the same Allowance N1X class level. The stalking style that has suited him well this year should be on display with David’s Memory stretching out from a sprint to route and Brimstoned and Spanish Hombre forwardly placed on or near the early lead. He has bounced back with three works including a sharp five furlong spin in 1:01 ⅖ on August 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington caught him “feeling very good waiting on stakes winner Estrechada going the last 1/4 in 23.4.” With a stalking style that suits the pace for this race and hopefully a clear ground saving trip under regular rider Joe Talamo I expect Trifecta to spring the minor upset to start the final Saturday of the meet.
The Play:
WIN bet on (7) TRIFECTA at 7-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-6, 7-11. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, 7 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies
SPECTATOR (#3, 5-2) is the morning line favorite but the belief in this corner is she could possibly go off as either the second or third choice with plenty of attention centered around two impressive maiden winners Moonshine Memories and Just A Smidge. This homebred daughter of excellent freshman sire Jimmy Creed is undefeated in two starts and she has shown a terrific burst of acceleration in the stretch to indicate the additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue. She broke her maiden in her first start on June 23 rallying from off the pace behind a four-horse speed duel early to win by 5-¼ widening lengths at a generous 9-1 earning a respectable 68 Beyer Speed Figure. The strength of that race was more impressive than the final speed figure would indicate in the most productive two-year old maiden race of the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita.The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 60, 60, 61, and 66. When she made her second career start on August 5 in the Grade 2 Sorrento she was my best bet of the day based not only her visually impressive maiden victory but also impressive July 29 five furlong work in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Ran clear from older barn mate Mag The Mighty with a sharp late kick in 36.2, 100.3 getting passed by the 4f duo of King Eddie and Johnny Be Bueno (both O'Neil) out in 113.1. Plenty of upside here.” Despite this visually impressive move and defeating a key race field, she was sent off as the 4-1 third choice behind impressive maiden winner Diamonds and Pearls and the undefeated Surrender Now and she showed new dimension by taking it to her rivals from the start and never looked back. Run over a main track that favored speed, Spectator “pressed the pace between runners down the backstretch, dueled in the far turn, headed briefly, dashed away at the top of the stretch, opened up, ridden out.” The impressive part about this victory was the extent of the fast early fractions had on Spectator’s pace rivals. The fractions of 21.93 and 45.05 earned above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+18, +11) and those splits saw her pace rivals weaken to finish third beaten 9-¾ lengths, sixth beaten 29-¾ lengths, and seventh and last beaten 48 lengths. She has been pointed specifically for this race by the meets leading trainer Phil D’Amato and she continues to train like a filly with plenty of promise ahead with three works including a near bullet five furlong move in 59 ⅕ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ flashing a “Big late rally with older barn mate Towards The Light in 37.0, 59.4 (22.4 LQ). Filly is still strong as ever; Theriot up.” This chesnut filly can either lead and dispute the early pace outside of likely leader Moonshine Memories or settle just off it if a speed duel develops and this versatility gives jockey Jamie Theriot plenty of options as she might be slightly overlooked in this talent laden field for the Del Mar Debutante as my BEST BET on the card.
The Play:
WIN bet on (3) SPECTATOR at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 3-5. Small reverse.
$5 Pick 3: 3 w/ 1, 2 w/ 4, 6, 13 = 1 x 2 x 3 x $5 = $30
$4 Pick 3: 5 w/ 1, 2 w/ 4, 6, 13 = 1 x 2 x 3 x $4 = $24
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year olds
MAJOR CABBIE (#2, 6-1) is a first time starter that will be going against St. Patrick’s Day a full brother to 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in his career debut thirteen days ago and earn the field’s highest last race 81 Beyer Speed Figure and 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Despite those credentials of the post time favorite, everything I have seen from Major Cabbie on a pedigree standpoint, trainer profile, and more importantly his workouts over this Del Mar main track and when you combine that with price that will be around the 5-1 area or higher than the correct play is take the price on this bay colt by excellent debut sire Into Mischief. He was purchased at the Ocala Breeders Sale April two-year old in training sale for $260,000 where he breezed two furlongs in 21 ⅖ and that purchase price is above the sire’s average price of $209,200 for his progeny. He is by 14% debut sire out of the dam Love Catcher who was unraced but produced five starters with three winners including two-year old winner Love Conquers. Trainer Dan Hendricks is not known for his debuting two-year olds here at Del Mar and the reason for that is because he rarely debuts them this early. In the past five-years, he has had only two starters that were two-year olds make their career debut sprinting on the main track here at Del Mar and none of them hit the board. However, Dan Hendricks successfully trained the three-year old, Morgan S, to break his maiden in his debut on August 18 here at Del Mar with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. His stablemate is important to mention in this discussion because on August 2 he worked in company with Major Cabbie where he went three furlongs from the gate in 34 ⅘ with the latter getting outworked by his older stablemate. Since that move, he has come back with four more works including a visually impressive six furlong move on August 15 in 1:12 ⅕ that saw today’s jockey Drayden Van Dyke aboard for the work and he did it very easily with ears pricking back and forth early and finishing with plenty of power towards the wire, and galloping out with energy in reserve (August 15 - Major Cabbie Work). In addition, National Turf’s Andy Harrington has been impressed by this bay colt in his morning training giving him consecutive B moves for his August 15 and August 21 works. He is bred for speed over a distance that favors that style, has worked in tremendous fashion towards his career debut, and for an underrated trainer with first time starters makes Major Cabbie the upset play to begin the final Pick 4 on a Saturday here at Del Mar.
The Play:
WIN bet on (2) MAJOR CABBIE at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 2-1. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 2-3. No reverse.
Race 9: Grade 2 John C. Mabee, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Fillies and mares
MRS. MCDOUGAL (#6, 5-1) was defeated as the 4-5 post time favorite in the restricted Osunitas Stakes on July 21 where she finished third beaten 2-lengths behind today’s rival Madame Stripes and next time out winner Corps De Ballet. I believe there are reasons to excuse that defeat none more important than the fact this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was returning from 300-day layoff and her form from last year gives this bay mare reasons to respect this Richard Mandella trainee. Last year, she won two of four starts with her two defeats happen in two prestigious Grade 1 events: Just A Game behind the runaway pace pressing winner Celestine where she finished third as the beaten favorite and Diana behind her previous stablemate Dacita. The last time she visited the winner’s circle happen on September 24 at Belmont Park where she was sent off as the 1-1 choice in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel and she took advantage of ideal conditions en route to earning career best 101 Beyer Speed Figure and 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She took control of the early lead from the start and set controlled pace through slow fractions designated by the blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and never looked back to win by two lengths over her previous stablemate Zendaya who came back to win the Grade 2 Goldikova at Santa Anita in her next start. That race would be her last race under Chad Brown as she was transferred to Richard Mandella barn and should not make her first start for her new conditioner until July 21, 2017 in a restricted overnight stakes where she was sent off at 4-5 and she finished a respectable third beaten only 2-lengths where she needed the race. According to Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, she “settled on the outside in midpack, confidently ridden into the turn, quickening when asked turning for home, but unable to get close to the top two in the stretch.” Although the Trip Note writer stated that she is probably best at one-mile, I believe this race was used strictly as a prep because jockey Flavien Prat elected to rate her off a moderate early pace and she finished under her own power to the wire. In addition to the long layoff, she covered 47ft and 17ft more respectively than the first two finishers, Madame Stripes and Corps De Ballet. She has returned with four more works capped off by a best of eight six furlong move in 1:12 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating she was “best over Antioch going the last 5f in 59.4. Was pulling nicely early; plenty of speed still evident.” TimeformUS pace projector feel that Mrs McDougal will be on or near the early lead along with Hillhouse High and that should give her a tactical advantage over stalkers and closers such as Decked Out, Cambodia, and Goodyearforroses.
The Play:
WIN bet on (6) MRS. MCDOUGAL at 4-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 6-4, 6-13. Small reverse for each.
Race 11: Maiden Special Weight, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up
TANIKO (#7, 5-1) is a horse that requires a lot of imagination especially when you look at this horse on paper it would appear he would be a throw out. He has lost his two starts by a combined margin of 34-½ lengths and has defeated only one horse to the wire. He will now make his first start off a 230-day layoff and based strictly on those points he would be an automatic toss. However, previous form on the main track does not pertain when they switch to a new surface especially a surface that Taniko is bred to adore and the meets leading trainer, Phil D’Amato, strengths is horses switching from dirt to turf in a maiden turf route and this $260,000 Fasig Tipton purchase is making that same move. As mentioned earlier, this son of Gio Ponti has shown very little in two starts on the main track as he failed to pass a single horse beaten 23-lengths in his career debut on November 25, 2016 here at Del Mar behind the gate to wire winner Prime Attraction. In his next start on January 15, 2017 he remained on the main track even though the race was originally scheduled to be run on the turf, trailed early behind a very slow early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (-17, -11), came out into the stretch, and passed only one horse without threatening anyone beaten 9-½ lengths. He will now make his first start in more than six months but plenty of changes would suggest that he might be capable of turning around. Firstly, he will be switching to the turf for the first time and he is half brother to three turf winners and two of them are Graded Stakes winners that you might be familiar. Vyjack winner of two of nine starts on the turf including last year’s Grade 2 City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita and recently was second in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile behind Blackjack Cat. The most famous starter from the dam Life Happened is Tepin the 2015 Breeders Cup Mile winner and 2016 Group 1 Queen Anne winner at Royal Ascot and overall won ten of seventeen starts on the turf. Secondly, trainer Phil D’Amato brings him back as a new gelding on the turf in a maiden special weight route and in the past five years here at Del Mar he connects at 29% rate (14/4-2-1) with his starters switching from dirt to turf in a maiden special weight turf route and he has striked twice with that move this meet. Spiritual Warrior (August 3, 2017, $4.70-1) and Troublewithatee (August 19, 2017, $5.60-1) with today’s rider Corey Nakatani riding him for the first time. He comes back with nine works dating back to June 28 at Los Alamitos capped off by a back to back B moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including six furlong move in 1:13 flat that he stated “Nice kick while best over Holy Whirly Wind in 37.0, 100.2 (23.2 LQ) galloping out in 113.1. Looks improved.” The switch to turf where he is bred to adore for a trainer that excels with that maneuver and training like a horse that has improved with the time away makes Taniko an intriguing upset possibility in the finale.
The Play:
WIN bet on (7) TANIKO at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 7-4, 7-8, 7-12. Small reverse for each.
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