Chief Cicatriz Looks to Continue Winning Ways in Bing Crosby

BEST BET for July 27: VELVET QUEEN (Race 7, 4-1). 

MULTI-RACE PLAY Race 1 Pick 5 

Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 3, 7 / 2 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $36 for a $1 Wager 

Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 1, 5 / 2 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $18 for a $0.50 Wager 

Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 3, 7 / 1 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $18 for a $0.50 Wager

Total Pick 5: $72 

Race 2: (3) MOODY JIM (IRE) 

The morning line favorite in the second leg of the early Pick 5 is PARSIMONY who is winless in thirteen starts and three of those defeats were on the turf where blew a clear lead into the stretch as the 8-5 favorite on May 25 and was run down by the stretch running Proud Pedro. In his most recent turf start, he was wide throughout behind the uncontested gate to wire City Rage but despite the trip and race shape, today’s rival MO FORZA out finished him to the wire for second. He is the type of favorite I want to defeat in multi-race bets such as the early Pick 5 and thankfully there is an excellent alternative. 

The Jeff Mullins trained MOODY JIM did not make his debut as a two-year old and made his belated racing debut on May 10 in Ireland at Cork where he finished excellent third in a twelve horse field where the Timeform European analyst commented “made an encouraging start to career; mid-division, headway when switched over 2f out, headway approaching final 1f, no extra final 100 yards; should improve.” The race proved to be productive as the runner-up, Balefire, returned to break his maiden in his next start and went on to a Listed Handicap in his most recent start. He was privately purchased Red Baron’s Barn LLC and Rancho Temescal LLC and made his first start for trainer Jeff Mullins at Churchill Downs on June 29 where he overcame a less than ideal start to finish a better than looked fourth. In that race, he bobbled bobbled sharply at the break recovered to trail the field on the rail for the first half mile, moved up along the rail on the far turn, split rivals into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire to beat more than half the field. His late rally looks even better when you consider the winner He’s Stylish was able make an uncontested lead through very slow early fractions that earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He makes his second start for his connections in his first start at Del Mar making MOODY JIM qualify for the ship and win program and prepared for this event with half mile spin in 50 seconds on July 22 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Nice power with Drayden aboard going the 4f in 24.1, 48.4. Plenty of upside here,” giving that move a B. The Phil D’Amato trainee THE LONGEST NIGHT appears to have the early speed to make the early lead and I expect with a clear start that MOODY JIM to stalk that rival in mid-pack and from post position three with first time Drayden Van Dyke he should blast home with clear sailing getting the jump on second preference MO FORZA at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (3) MOODY JIM at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta: 3-7. Small reverse. 

Small Exactas: 3-1, 3-5. No reverse. 

Race 4: (8) GHOST STREET

I have respect for the morning line favorite HACKBERRY as he will be used in my early Pick 5 but I will be playing against the second choice MUSIC TO MY EARS who I believe the distance mile and a sixteenth is beyond his distance limitations. He made his only turf start on May 11 at Santa Anita going five furlongs where he flashed excellent early zip to set a pressured pace in a five horse speed duel, put away four of his pace rivals away into the stretch, was tackled by the eventual winner Nesbitt at mid-stretch, and refused to yield easily finishing second. He switched to the main track on June 1 where he pressed a moderate early pace between the two favorites King Jack and Morning Snow and the son of Goldencents stayed with them all the way to the top of the stretch where he was out run and finished a clear third in a race where the winner King Jack and runner-up Morning Snow returned to win earning improved TimeformUS Speed Figures of 114 and 108 for a seven and four point improvement respectively. Now he stretches out and finds additional pace from STILL IN THE GAME and without much pedigree for this surface and stretch out, MUSIC TO MY EARS is a play against. 

He will be making his first start on turf and around two turns, but GHOST STREET is bred to adore both as this son of Ghostzapper ran like a horse in his debut on June 23 that will love more ground. The Patrick Gallagher trainee was bet down 9-2 second choice behind the post time favored winner Morning Snow even though his pedigree was geared towards running long on the grass. His dam, Heat Street, produced eight-time turf route winner Miss Boom Boom who earned a career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure on that surface and route of ground. Although trainer Patrick Gallagher is not known for his prowess with first time starters (27 TimeformUS trainer rating), GHOST STREET received plenty of attention because of his morning workouts. He had a B+ and B moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a three furlong gate move in 36 ⅗ on June 16 that Andy gave a B stating “Broke fine then was galloping along here in this easy spin always under some restraint in 36.1. Handy traveler.” In his career debut, GHOST STREET broke fine stalked in mudpack between rivals behind moderate, made a small move splitting rivals on the turn, angled out, and ran evenly finishing fifth. There was very little positional movement in this sprint as the first four finishers ran 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd at each call. With that race under his belt, this bay colt will now stretch out to two turns on the turf a surface his pedigree indicates he will adore and bounced back with a five furlong move in 1:01⅖ on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Nice stride out late while going away from Fusion Illusion rider pointing this one along with a 24.3, 49.0 last 4f. There is upside here.” In his only his second career start, he should be in the first flight on stretch out and pounce at what should be a generous price considering his poor effort in his only start. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (8) GHOST STREET

Main Exacta: 8-6. Small reverse. 

Small Exactas: 8-1, 8-3. No reverse. 

Race 7: (7) VELVET QUEEN 

With the exception of being a short price and trying a route of ground for the first time, I have no other negatives against morning line favorite GREAT RETURN but I do need to mention the track profile so far this meet at 1-mile on the turf here at Del Mar. Through the conclusion of Friday’s program, there have been 10 races run at this distance, 3 were won by horses on the lead after the first call and 4 were won by horses that had the lead at the second call or the quarter pole. One horse figures to benefit from that track profile and has run much better than her running line would suggest in her two starts at this 1-mile distance. 

VELVET QUEEN comes into this race with a 4th and 3rd in two starts at today’s 1-mile distance on turf but I believed that she ran the best race in each of those defeats that she went immediately on my horses to watch list as this daughter of Animal Kingdom ran too good to lose in each start. After she broke her maiden in her debut down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, she stretched out to one-mile on turf for the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes and she ran a whole lot better than her 3-¾ length margin of defeat would indicate. The Richard Baltas trainee hopped at the start to be away one length slow at start, parked four wide into the first turn and down the backstretch stalking a quick pace set by Courteous early. She launched a four wide move to challenge the leader around the far turn into the teeth of a very hot pace noted by red TimeformUS pace figure for six furlongs, stayed outside of the leader into the stretch, and flattened out the final eighth of a mile losing third to opportunistic closer Pivottina. At no point did her rider try to save ground with VELVET QUEEN throughout and Trakus backs up the wide journey as she ran 36ft, 65ft, and 37ft more than the first three finishers and based the amount of ground she lost she ran much better than the winner Elsa did in that stakes event. She would lose her next two starts on the cut back to turf sprints, she finished badly beaten third at 6-5 in the Allowance race on January 21 and at 7-5 in another Allowance race in her three-year old debut off 116-day hiatus. It was not until she stretched out to this 1-mile distance again on June 16 that she delivered another winning performance in defeat earning the field’s top last race 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and she earned it under less than ideal circumstances. In that race, she was used up early to establish the early lead into the first turn and down the backstretch and out sprinted the very quick Ellie Arroway as she covered opening quarter in blazing 21.99 and half mile in 45.48 seconds. Despite this torrid pace, she continued to lead after six furlongs in 1:09.77 and stayed on gamely to lead to the final furlong when she was overtaken by the opportunistic favored stalking winner Mucho Unusual and weaken to be third. It’s not surprising that the fractions through the first six furlongs were coded red by TimeformUS and the strength of this Allowance victory has already been confirmed. The winner took advantage of another pace meltdown to the Grade 2 San Clemente on July 20 with a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure four points lower than Allowance win and the last place finisher Strike at Dawn won Allowance race on July 19 with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. VELVET QUEEN remains at her ideal distance and finds a field not loaded with the type of her early speed she encountered last time out. She returned with an easy five furlong move in 1:00⅘ on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Fine enough here rider down in the saddle to the line for the Baltas barn. Traveling smooth enough,” for this B- move. More importantly, she will make the early lead and if she can avoid running extremely wide like she did in her previous start over this turf course or running extremely fast early such as last time then VELVET QUEEN should encounter ideal circumstances on the front end over a track profile that favors her running style as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (7) VELVET QUEEN at 2-1 or better. 

Main Exactas: 7-1, 7-9. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: 7 with 3, 6 

Race 8: (6) CHIEF CICATRIZ

With rivals such as CALEXMAN and CISTRON in this field, the pace of this year’s Bing Crosby promises to be fast to horses that can handle such fast fractions and that should not help the morning line favorite RECRUITING READY. The five-year old Algorithms horse has found ideal race setups in his previous two starts Belmont Park and could not finish the deal with a victory. In the Run Happy Stakes, RECRUITING READY found himself pressing a slow pace noted by the blue TimeformUS pace figure for a half mile and when he was blown away by the perfect trip winner Firenze Fire, he was in a three horse battle to hold second over the opportunistic closer Bon Raison and pacesetter Killybegs Captain. In his most recent start, he pressed another moderate pace outside the leader Strike Power, put in his run to challenge the pacesetter at mid-stretch, and could not get by him as subsequent Grade 2 San Diego Handicap winner Catalina Cruiser rallied to get up over a main track that favored inside-speed on June 7 at Belmont Park. He will be forced to race further back than usual because he will encounter “California Speed” versus the type of early speed he has seen this year on the East Coast and he will be a play against in the Bing Crosby. 

It’s rare that you find a race horse that has won as many as ten races from only fifteen starts but that is the case with our top choice CHIEF CICATRIZ who is rounding back to the form that saw him earn 129 TimeformUS and 110 Beyer Speed Figure in last year’s Grade 3 Aristides Handicap at Churchill Downs. A six furlong specialist with five wins from eight starts at this trip, CHIEF CICATRIZ was defeated at this trip on May 25 at Prairie Meadows when second behind D’ Rapper in the Ed Skinner Stakes and that second looks better considering that the winner went on to win his next two starts including the Iowa Sprint Handicap on July 5 with a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He bounced back from this defeat to win the Dark Star Cup at Canterbury Park on June 22 and did so in visually impressive fashion that has already been validated by subsequent performances of horses behind him. In that race, CHIEF CICATRIZ won a four-horse pace battle for the early lead through fast fractions with three pace rivals weaken to finish 4th, 5th, and 6th, and he kicked clear to win by 2-¾ lengths. What I find noteworthy about this performance was subsequent performances of the horses behind CHIEF CICATRIZ. The fifth-place finisher Hot Shot Kid won Minnesota Turf Sprint on July 3 with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure (3 point improvement), sixth-place finisher The Tabulator won an Allowance race at Thistledowns with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure (6 point improvement), and the seventh-place finisher Rock City Road Hog won a Starter Allowance race with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure (7 point improvement). The fact three horses behind CHIEF CICATRIZ all came back to win earning improved speed figures validates the win. A former one-dimensional front runner, CHIEF CICATRIZ should sit a garden trip on the outside in third tracking CALEXMAN and CISTRON in the clear a similar trip he had when he won Aristides Handicap last year. Ruben Fuentas who is off to a fast start this Del Mar takes over in the irons and at 12-1 on the morning line and with his win spirit and ability to win at all race tracks makes CHIEF CICATRIZ my best long shot bet on the program. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (6) CHIEF CICATRIZ at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta: 6-3. Small reverse. 

Small Exacta: 6-4. No reverse. 

Over Emphasize Can Spring Surprise in San Clemente

Friday’s Recap: Total -$100 for the meet. We connected with Oakland Mills but Streak of Luck did not have the smoothest of trips and we move on today’s Saturday’s card. The main action is later part of the card and being Saturday I will focus strictly on WIN bets. 

Race 6: (9) GYPSY BLU

This California bred daughter of Papa Clem is turf sprinting specialist having won four of five starts sprinting on a firm turf course with only one second and she returns to the Jimmy Durante turf course where she scored her only victory on this layout last year at 30-1. The Mark Glatt trainee won the Irish O’ Brian Stakes down the hillside turf course on March 31 at Santa Anita by only a half-length but she overcame a less than idea race shape to win from off the pace and did so over good field. She was taken back off the pace as the three leaders established slow fractions of 21.98 and 44.15 seconds. She began to inch closer down the hill and across the dirt portion of the layout, angled four wide into the turf course, and rallied to wear down the favorite S.Y. Sky to win by a half-length. This returned to be a productive field as the runner-up returned to win Camilla Urso Stakes and Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes in her next two starts with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 and 110 respectively and the fifth place finisher Queen Bee To You returned to run second and win the Fran’s Valentine and Bertrando Stakes with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 107 and 112 respectively. One can draw a line through her fourth place finish in the Fran’s Valentine on May 12 because she was running at one-mile a distance that is beyond her distance limitations where she split the field running fourth. She returned to one turn in an Allowance race on June 14 and she ran second behind today’s rival KENTON ROAD but she was compromised by a lack of early speed as the eventual winner got loose on the lead where Gypsy Blu earned a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure a figure two points higher because she rallied against the uncontested gate to wire winner. She has come back with two works including sharp half-mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 12 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “willing while joined home by Blue Moonrise (Baffert) in 23.2, 48.1. Is going quite well.” The lack of pace she encountered last time will not be found here as KENTON ROAD will find pressure from the speedy PAINTING CORNERS and LADY SUEBEE. Norbertto Arroyo Jr. remains in the irons and should stalk a lively pace in mid-pack and pounce over a layout she adores at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

Race 5 $20 Daily Double: (8) BLUE MOONRISE with (9) GYPSY BLU 

$25 WIN on (9) GYPSY BLU at 7-2 or better. 

Race 8: (6) OVER EMPHASIZE 

A daughter of Overanalyze comes into the San Clemente with only a maiden victory over this distance back on April 12 at Santa Anita she rallied from midpack to win by a nose. Since that victory, she has returned with pair of the in the money performances where her off the pace running style was compromised by a lack of pace or trouble at important parts of the pace and I feel this Mike McCarthy trainee needs pace and better racing luck to score the upset in this Grade 2 event. After her maiden victory, she took on winners for the first time on May 3 where her stalking style was compromised by a lack of early speed as the favored winner was able to get loose on an uncontested lead through slow fractions and she won the battle for second at the wire. She stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes and did not have the cleanest of trips in the stretch as the first two finishers Lady Prancelot and Hostess had clear outside rally wide trips. In that race, she saved ground passing the finish line for the first time and saved ground through the first half mile. As the pace began to quicken into and around the far turn, she continued racing on the rail and into the stretch where she attempted to get outside but was in tight Maxim Rate and the leader made the hole not there and Alonso Quinonez had to alter course to the inside in the final sixteenth of a mile and she was clear third. Both her runner-up performance in the paceless Allowance race won by Colonial Creed and her troubled third in the Honeymoon was at 1-⅛ miles and she now cuts back to one-mile the distance of her maiden victory three races back. In addition, she will find early pace for her late kick as TimeformUS anticipates the San Clemente being run at a fast pace with DEVILS DANCE, HARMLESS, and stablemate KALLINKI all vying for the early lead and Over Emphasize should drop over into mid-pack position and produce one late run as she owns the field’s best TimeformUS late pace rating. She has returned with two works including a best of eighteen half mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 15 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Q up; full of beans late rolling late in 24.3, 48.2. Set for utmost.” I expect Over Emphasize to deliver a career best performance on the cut back in distance and with plenty of speed signed on for her late kick at a price. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN bet on (6) OVER EMPHASIZE at 5-1 or better. 

Race 10: (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE)

A son of Declaration of War, BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) ships into Del Mar as part of the Ship and Win program and has hit the board only once in his last three starts but a closer inspection of each start reveals that this Irish bred gelding needs a ground saving trip and plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick and he should find that scenario in today’s finale at Del Mar. After breaking his maiden in late February at Gulfstream Park, he returned on Kentucky Derby week on May 2 at Churchill Downs and suffered a wide trip debacle in a productive race where the winner, Voting Control, won by 2-¼ widening lengths making his first start since the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide around the first turn and continued racing that wide down the backstretch pressing a slow pace. He continued racing wide into and around the far turn and was wisely wrapped up inside the final furlong to finish ahead of one rival to be ninth beaten eight-lengths. This May 2 Allowance event produced Pillar Mountain who won his next two starts and fifth place finisher Clear for Action returned to win his next start. He was reeled back three weeks later and with a different trip he produced a career best performance to run second earning career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure behind the perfect trip winner Get Western. Instead of being parked wide into the first turn, new jockey Adam Beschizza got BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) over to the rail into the first turn and he was able to save ground behind the long shot loose leader Discovered. He was angled off the hedge into the clear in the stretch and was second best as Get Western got first run but lost nothing in defeat finishing almost two-lengths clear of the rest of the field. In his most recent, he suffered a wide trip throughout racing three wide into and around the first turn, was parked four wide on the backstretch, and made a premature midrace move into the teeth of a fast pace coded red by TimeformUS and ran evenly through the stretch to split the twelve horse in sixth. He will now make his first start at Del Mar for trainer Steve Miyadi who does well with new acquisitions (86 TimeformUS trainer rating) and he should get the trip to deliver his best performance. TimeformUS anticipates a very fast pace with one dimensional front runners Snazzy Dresser, Factorial, and Foray all having raced or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts. If that pace scenario happens, I expect new rider Norbertto Arroyo Jr to take BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) to the inside in the first turn, stalk in midpack a lively pace, and produce one late run at a nice price in the finale. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN on (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) at 5-1 or better. 

Streak of Luck Gets Class Relief in the Osunitas Stakes

Total for Meet: -$50 After Coil Me Home failed to win the 2nd leg of our Daily Double wager on opening day. Friday's first post is at 4pm and what better way to kick off the weekend than great 8 race card at Del Mar. Let's get to work.

Race 5: (8) PAKHET 

The daughter of Cairo Prince has always been well regarded finishing second in her career debut sprinting on the turf and then successfully stretched out in her second career start to break her maiden handily with a perfect stalking trip. She stepped up in class to face winners for the first time in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland on October 10, 2018 and she ran a respectable second behind the leading North American three-year old top filly Concrete Rose. In that race, the former Todd Pletcher trainee raced off the rail in the two path around the first turn and down the backstretch stalking the loose leader in midpack. She angled three paths off the rail on the far turn and was hard urged to keep her position as the winner Concrete Rose saved ground. As the field reached the top of the stretch, she was parked six wide into the stretch and rallied to grab second while no match the perfect trip winner. This runner-up performance encouraged her connections to enter her in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was parked four to five wide into the first turn and continued to race that wide down the backstretch. She was hard urged while parked wide around the far turn and gave way to the wire finishing eleventh beaten 15-½ lengths. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf turned out to be one of the most productive juvenile events of 2018 as fifth, sixth, and eighth-place finishers returned to win such events as the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes (The Mackem Bullet) and Grade 3 Florida Oaks, Grade 2 Edgewood, and Grade 1 Belmont Oaks (Concrete Rose). She will make her first start as a three-year old off a 259-day layoff but she showed she ran very well fresh when she was beaten a nose in her career debut and comes into this race with six works over the Santa Anita main track including visually impressive half mile spin in 49 ⅖ on June 23 (Pakhet - June 23 Workout) where she outworked the older Arch Anthem. Ruben Fuentas who is the regular rider for Mike McCarthy trained Ohio and has worked PAKHET in the morning takes over in the irons and she should get a cozy stalking trip tracking the expected leader ANONYMOUSLY and RAYANA early and pounce on those two entering the stretch as victory in this race is a stepping stone for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on Pacific Classic weekend in August. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (8) PAKHET

Race 6: (8) OAKLAND MILLS 

The Jeff Mullins trainee was sent off as the third longest shot on the tote board in his career debut on June 1 and his price reflection of win early breeding and trainer’s lack of success with first time starters. He was the highest priced of six two-year olds in training sales by the sire With Distinction at the OBS April 2018 at $55,000 which is higher than the sire’s average of $27,700 and that sales price is seven times his stud’s breeding fee of $7,500. The dam Natural Glow has produced five winners from six starters and those five winners have combined to win twenty-six races and majority of them in sprint races. The gelding had steady series of workouts for his debut but nothing flashy that caught the private clockers in the morning and trainer Jeff Mullins does not do well with first time starters with a below average 46 TimeformUS trainer rating in that category. Despite those negatives, OAKLAND MILLS ran very well in defeat catching the impressive Bob Baffert debut winner Comical Ghost who is son of Ghostzapper out of the multiple Grade 1 winner and placed Hystericalady. In that race, OAKLAND MILLS flashed good early speed to press the pace three wide in a contested four-horse battle for the early lead through a very fast opening quarter that was coded red by TimeformUS. He eased off this duel to stalk the three leaders into and around the far turn, re-bid to move into second into the stretch, and flattened out on his run switching to his left lead towards the wire and losing second to the opportunistic closer Beleth in a race where the winner Comical Ghost earned above average 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. OAKLAND MILLS lost nothing in defeat considering how fast  the winner ran and he returned with five workouts including a visually impressive team drill in 1:01 ⅘ on June 23 where he caught unexpected company in what returned to be a three team drill (Oakland Mills - June 23 work) that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Fuentes up; nifty looking drill looking best inside barn mate K P Slickem and the 4f working Save Ground (Cecil) finishing with something left in 36.1, 101.4. Nice over the track.” With this debut race under his belt and drawn outside of the rest of the field, I expected OAKLAND MILLS to flash his customary early speed to take it to this field from the start under regular rider Ruben Fuentas and spring the minor upset as he catches a field that does not have a Comical Ghost. 

Wagering Strategy: My $50 Del Mar starts in this race and it is Daily Double between my two Best Bets on the card. 

$50 Daily Double: 8 with 6 = $50 

Race 7: (6) STREAK OF LUCK

A California-bred daughter of Old Fashioned is situated at one-mile but this distance of a mile and a sixteenth is ideal fit for this gray filly whose previous two starts at one-mile suggest that additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no problem. After wide trip defeat in overnight stakes on December 26, she parlayed a perfect stalking trip en route to a 1-¼ length victory on January 25. She broke well and was taken to the two path stalking a moderate early pace set by Travieza in midpack early. She moved up two wide on the far turn, taken four wide into the clear in the stretch, and kicked past the tired leader to a clear victory defeating a sub-par field that produced a pair of second-place finishes and three off the board finishes in a race that early pace collapsed as the horses that ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd early weaken to finish 6th, 5th, and 4th. The Matthew Chew trainee moved up in class in the Grade 2 Buena Vista on February 23 and was second best behind the streaking Santa Anita horse for course Vasilika. In that race, she was taken far back behind a blazing early pace that featured red coded TimeformUS pace figures set by the uncontested leader Fahan Mura. She remained far back into the stretch, angled four wide into the stretch, and rallied to be second behind the favored winner in a productive race. Vasilika went on to win the Grade 2 Royal Heroine and the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes in her next two starts and sixth place finisher Elysea’s World came back to win the Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes. She failed to hit the board in her next two starts but those efforts were the result of running at a wrong distance and class level. She wanted no part of the mile and a quarter Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes on March 30 where she split the seven horse field fourth and last time out found herself in a paceless field where she pressed the pace outside of the leader Ahimsa, stayed on gamely to mid-stretch, and weaken to finish sixth beaten three-lengths. She now drops in class to this overnight stakes that is restricted to horses non-winners of a sweepstakes of over $50,000 at one mile or more since September 1, 2018. She returns to Jimmy Durante turf course where she has recorded two victories and one second from three starts over this turf course and jockey Mike Smith remains in the irons and was in the saddle for her previous three victories. She showed her fondness for this turf course with an easy half-mile spin on July 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “clearly prefers the turf as this one was gliding over the grass in 26.1, 50.4. On her toes off the break.” A realistic pace for her late kick should exist with IPPODAMIA’S GIRL going to the front with AHISMA and ACHRIA close to the early lead. If she can duplicate her runner-up performance in the Grade 2 Buena Vista she can score her first stakes victory in the first Friday of Del Mar meet. 

Wagering Strategy: 

Main Exacta: 6-1, 6-7. Small reverse. 

Gregorian Chant Looks To Rebound in the Oceanside Stakes

Race 2: (4) MORSE CODE

The meet’s first turf event should have an honest to fast early pace scenario for those stalking or coming from well off the pace. VIA EGNATIA who lead going gate to wire in his most recent victory will go straight to the front under hustling rider Edwin Maldonado and DR. TROUTMAN has been on the lead at the first call (half mile mark) in his turf route races in four of his last six starts. Those two should engage in a fast pace that TimeformUS pace projector predicts and I want a horse that can get first run on closers such as morning line favorite United and fellow closers Ward N’ Jerry and Starting Bloc. 

MORSE CODE won his first start over this Del Mar turf course on the last race of the Pacific Classic day of last year with a perfect stalk and pounce trip versus a suspect field of Allowance N1X rivals that only produced one next out winner and five others that ran second or third in their next start. He returned off a 96-day hiatus on November 22 here at Del Mar going 1-⅜ miles where he saved ground around all three turns, angled out for the drive and failed to muster a serious rally finishing sixth beaten three-lengths. He turned back to one-mile in his first start of this year and finished fast closing fourth beaten three-quarters of a length in a race where the race shape favored horses on or near the front end as the first two finishers, Keep Quiet and Count Alexander ran around the racetrack second and first throughout and this son of Tapit finished in a blanket photo for the minor placings. In his next start on February 17, he raced was parked three-wide racing in mid-pack for the first half mile, raced even wider on the far turn and into the stretch, and was wrapped up to the wire to finish seventh beaten 6-¼ lengths. One can draw a line through his dirt debacle on March 30 as he was off the board in three previous fast main track efforts. The Richard Baltas trainee returned to turf on May 25 in the Gr. 2 Charles Whittingham Stakes and he finished fifth beaten only 1-½ lengths behind his stablemate Marckie’s Water but this was a good effort in defeat considering he abandon his traditional stalk and pounce style to dispute the early pace. In this race, he disputed the pace with pace rival Tiz a Runner through quick fractions for the distance that saw the mile mark coded red by TimeformUS. He put away that pace rival towards mid-stretch and hung in tough to the final sixteenth of a mile before being collared by the closers towards the wire to earn the field’s highest last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure and second highest last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure. He makes a realistic drop into this Allowance N2X and has returned with five works over the Santa Anita training track. He drops eight pounds from his previous start with apprentice Jorge Velez in the irons and should revert to his stalking style with his stable mate VIA EGNATIA going for the early lead and if he can build on his effort in the Whittingham Stakes he can spring the minor upset. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (4) MORSE CODE

Race 8: (8) GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) 

The opening day feature Oceanside Stakes should feature an honest pace. The sprinter stretching out LEGENDS OF WAR will go for the early lead but based on his previous form this Scat Daddy will be best around one turn and had advantageous pace scenario featuring blue coded TimeformUS pace figures on May 27 and weakened to third. The pace pressure will come from CITY RAGE who broke his maiden in gate to wire fashion on June 22 where he set a quick pace for the first half quarter of a mile and then was able to rate kindly on the front end through the next half mile and sprinted clear to win by 1-¾ lengths. These two horses should establish pace honest enough where a closer that was compromised by a lack of speed in his previous start should appreciate. 

GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) has always shown talent in each of his first two starts despite being tardy at the gate. He broke his maiden over the Poly Track at Dundalk in Ireland in his career debut by 1-¼ lengths where the Timeform European Analyst stated “missed the break, in rear, still plenty to do entering straight, came wide, stayed on to lead well inside final 1f, hung left, well on top finish; open to improvement.” The Gregorian colt was privately purchased by Slam Dunk Racing and partners and made his North American debut on May 5 at Santa Anita and was visually impressive overcoming tardy start and very slow pace to win by 2-¼ lengths. In that race, he veered out sharply at the start to be away dead last and trailed early behind a very slow early pace disputed by Contagion and Swap Souffle. He reached into contention into the far turn, swept by the two leaders into the stretch, and kicked clear defeating a sub-par field as three horses behind him returned to finish off the board and one horse returned to finish third. Despite the weak field, the visual impression of the victory made him the 6-5 post time favorite in the Cinema Stakes on June 2 and he finished a lackluster fourth beaten 2-¼ lengths behind the second Neptune’s Storm. However, one can draw a line through this race because of the addition of blinkers and the lack of early speed created a race flow in the Cinema Stakes that favored horses on or near the early lead. He broke a step slow in that race, trailed early through the first half mile as King of Speed, eventual winner Neptune’s Storm, and Parsimony raced on or near early pace that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite the slow pace, GREGORIAN CHANT moved forward three wide on the far turn, had a clear run into the stretch, and ran evenly towards the wire to earn career best 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Phil D’ Amato trainee removes the blinkers with four workouts over the Santa Anita training track including five furlong move on July 8 in 1:03 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Franco up; grand looker breezed with a fellow turfer in this smooth training track move. Upside clearly still here.” Although top rider Flavien Prat elects to ride Jasikan, jockey Giovanni Franco takes over in the irons and he should drop over to get cover behind an honest pace between City of Rage and Legend’s of War and produce one late run at a hint of a price.  

Wagering Strategy: My $50 Play of the Day will be a Daily Double using GREGORIAN CHANT and my second preference (3) JASIKAN to my Horse of the Day, Coil Me Home, in the 9th. Below please my Daily Double strategy:

$35 Daily Double: (8) GREGORIAN CHANT with (3) COIL ME HOME 

$15 Daily Double: (3) JASIKAN with (3) COIL ME HOME

Total Wager: $50  

Race 9: (3) COIL ME HOME 

This competitive seven furlong Allowance N1X event should have a spirited early pace with the two entrants with early speed fast enough to have run red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their recent starts. The main pace comes from Midwest shipper, JACK VAN BERG, who has pressed or lead after the first call five of his last five starts and in his most recent start was less than two-lengths behind red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Morning line favorite, KING JACK, was part of the early pace pressing the early pace three wide in the clear and won impressively over Morning Snow who won with an improved 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Now drawn inside of his main rival, he could get hooked into a pressured pace battle with Jack Van Berg ensuring a fast pace These two entrants should establish a lively pace scenario for a closer who will benefit from this enervating pace. 

COIL ME HOME has been known in his ten race career as a bridesmaid with six seconds or thirds and has not seen the Winner’s Circle since December 9, 2018 at Los Alamitos. His two most recent starts indicate that this California-bred son of Coil is rounding into form. He was defeated as the second choice on May 4 at Santa Anita where this Richard Baltas trainee flashed unusual early speed to contest the early pace with the favored Flagstaff and Candy Cornell early. Those three remained locked into a three-horse speed duel all the way past the quarter pole and into the stretch when COIL ME HOME weakened in the final sixteenth to be third earning a career best and competitive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure and he finished in front of fourth-place finisher, California Street, who came back to win Allowance N1X on June 22 with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He returned 42-days later and faced California-bred company in Thor's Echo Stakes on June 15 at Santa Anita and was a distant second behind the pace pressing winner Desert Law. A closer inspection of this effort reveals he ran a lot better than his 6-¼ length margin of defeat based on the slow pace the winner was able to press the speed favoring nature of the main track that afternoon. He reverted to his usual closing style trailing the field early as the leader Smiling Angelo and eventual winner Desert Law were able to establish a very slow early pace as the first half mile was colored by blue by TimeformUS pace figures. He trailed the field around the turn, angled out into the stretch, and finished very well to be a distant second against the race shape. Not only was his rally compromised by the slow pace but also speed favoring main track as all four dirt sprints were won by horses on the lead or within one length off the lead at the first pace call and COIL ME HOME rallied against race flow and speed bias in dirt sprints. He has bounced back with three workouts including five furlong move in 1:02 ⅕ on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Responded willingly with Prat aboard reaching in blinkers for Baltas in 25.1, 102.0. Looks good from here.” He is reunited with Flavien Prat who was aboard his previous win. More importantly, he will find early speed from the likes of JACK VAN BERG, and KING JACK to ensure his late kick will be flattered from the expected race flow. He should be a price considering his lack of winning record and lack of recent victory. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (3) COIL ME HOME 

Main Exacta: 3-2, 3-6. Small reverse for each.