BEST BET for July 27: VELVET QUEEN (Race 7, 4-1).
MULTI-RACE PLAY Race 1 Pick 5
Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 3, 7 / 2 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $36 for a $1 Wager
Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 1, 5 / 2 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $18 for a $0.50 Wager
Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 3, 7 / 1 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $18 for a $0.50 Wager
Total Pick 5: $72
Race 2: (3) MOODY JIM (IRE)
The morning line favorite in the second leg of the early Pick 5 is PARSIMONY who is winless in thirteen starts and three of those defeats were on the turf where blew a clear lead into the stretch as the 8-5 favorite on May 25 and was run down by the stretch running Proud Pedro. In his most recent turf start, he was wide throughout behind the uncontested gate to wire City Rage but despite the trip and race shape, today’s rival MO FORZA out finished him to the wire for second. He is the type of favorite I want to defeat in multi-race bets such as the early Pick 5 and thankfully there is an excellent alternative.
The Jeff Mullins trained MOODY JIM did not make his debut as a two-year old and made his belated racing debut on May 10 in Ireland at Cork where he finished excellent third in a twelve horse field where the Timeform European analyst commented “made an encouraging start to career; mid-division, headway when switched over 2f out, headway approaching final 1f, no extra final 100 yards; should improve.” The race proved to be productive as the runner-up, Balefire, returned to break his maiden in his next start and went on to a Listed Handicap in his most recent start. He was privately purchased Red Baron’s Barn LLC and Rancho Temescal LLC and made his first start for trainer Jeff Mullins at Churchill Downs on June 29 where he overcame a less than ideal start to finish a better than looked fourth. In that race, he bobbled bobbled sharply at the break recovered to trail the field on the rail for the first half mile, moved up along the rail on the far turn, split rivals into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire to beat more than half the field. His late rally looks even better when you consider the winner He’s Stylish was able make an uncontested lead through very slow early fractions that earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He makes his second start for his connections in his first start at Del Mar making MOODY JIM qualify for the ship and win program and prepared for this event with half mile spin in 50 seconds on July 22 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Nice power with Drayden aboard going the 4f in 24.1, 48.4. Plenty of upside here,” giving that move a B. The Phil D’Amato trainee THE LONGEST NIGHT appears to have the early speed to make the early lead and I expect with a clear start that MOODY JIM to stalk that rival in mid-pack and from post position three with first time Drayden Van Dyke he should blast home with clear sailing getting the jump on second preference MO FORZA at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (3) MOODY JIM at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 3-7. Small reverse.
Small Exactas: 3-1, 3-5. No reverse.
Race 4: (8) GHOST STREET
I have respect for the morning line favorite HACKBERRY as he will be used in my early Pick 5 but I will be playing against the second choice MUSIC TO MY EARS who I believe the distance mile and a sixteenth is beyond his distance limitations. He made his only turf start on May 11 at Santa Anita going five furlongs where he flashed excellent early zip to set a pressured pace in a five horse speed duel, put away four of his pace rivals away into the stretch, was tackled by the eventual winner Nesbitt at mid-stretch, and refused to yield easily finishing second. He switched to the main track on June 1 where he pressed a moderate early pace between the two favorites King Jack and Morning Snow and the son of Goldencents stayed with them all the way to the top of the stretch where he was out run and finished a clear third in a race where the winner King Jack and runner-up Morning Snow returned to win earning improved TimeformUS Speed Figures of 114 and 108 for a seven and four point improvement respectively. Now he stretches out and finds additional pace from STILL IN THE GAME and without much pedigree for this surface and stretch out, MUSIC TO MY EARS is a play against.
He will be making his first start on turf and around two turns, but GHOST STREET is bred to adore both as this son of Ghostzapper ran like a horse in his debut on June 23 that will love more ground. The Patrick Gallagher trainee was bet down 9-2 second choice behind the post time favored winner Morning Snow even though his pedigree was geared towards running long on the grass. His dam, Heat Street, produced eight-time turf route winner Miss Boom Boom who earned a career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure on that surface and route of ground. Although trainer Patrick Gallagher is not known for his prowess with first time starters (27 TimeformUS trainer rating), GHOST STREET received plenty of attention because of his morning workouts. He had a B+ and B moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a three furlong gate move in 36 ⅗ on June 16 that Andy gave a B stating “Broke fine then was galloping along here in this easy spin always under some restraint in 36.1. Handy traveler.” In his career debut, GHOST STREET broke fine stalked in mudpack between rivals behind moderate, made a small move splitting rivals on the turn, angled out, and ran evenly finishing fifth. There was very little positional movement in this sprint as the first four finishers ran 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd at each call. With that race under his belt, this bay colt will now stretch out to two turns on the turf a surface his pedigree indicates he will adore and bounced back with a five furlong move in 1:01⅖ on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Nice stride out late while going away from Fusion Illusion rider pointing this one along with a 24.3, 49.0 last 4f. There is upside here.” In his only his second career start, he should be in the first flight on stretch out and pounce at what should be a generous price considering his poor effort in his only start.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (8) GHOST STREET
Main Exacta: 8-6. Small reverse.
Small Exactas: 8-1, 8-3. No reverse.
Race 7: (7) VELVET QUEEN
With the exception of being a short price and trying a route of ground for the first time, I have no other negatives against morning line favorite GREAT RETURN but I do need to mention the track profile so far this meet at 1-mile on the turf here at Del Mar. Through the conclusion of Friday’s program, there have been 10 races run at this distance, 3 were won by horses on the lead after the first call and 4 were won by horses that had the lead at the second call or the quarter pole. One horse figures to benefit from that track profile and has run much better than her running line would suggest in her two starts at this 1-mile distance.
VELVET QUEEN comes into this race with a 4th and 3rd in two starts at today’s 1-mile distance on turf but I believed that she ran the best race in each of those defeats that she went immediately on my horses to watch list as this daughter of Animal Kingdom ran too good to lose in each start. After she broke her maiden in her debut down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, she stretched out to one-mile on turf for the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes and she ran a whole lot better than her 3-¾ length margin of defeat would indicate. The Richard Baltas trainee hopped at the start to be away one length slow at start, parked four wide into the first turn and down the backstretch stalking a quick pace set by Courteous early. She launched a four wide move to challenge the leader around the far turn into the teeth of a very hot pace noted by red TimeformUS pace figure for six furlongs, stayed outside of the leader into the stretch, and flattened out the final eighth of a mile losing third to opportunistic closer Pivottina. At no point did her rider try to save ground with VELVET QUEEN throughout and Trakus backs up the wide journey as she ran 36ft, 65ft, and 37ft more than the first three finishers and based the amount of ground she lost she ran much better than the winner Elsa did in that stakes event. She would lose her next two starts on the cut back to turf sprints, she finished badly beaten third at 6-5 in the Allowance race on January 21 and at 7-5 in another Allowance race in her three-year old debut off 116-day hiatus. It was not until she stretched out to this 1-mile distance again on June 16 that she delivered another winning performance in defeat earning the field’s top last race 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and she earned it under less than ideal circumstances. In that race, she was used up early to establish the early lead into the first turn and down the backstretch and out sprinted the very quick Ellie Arroway as she covered opening quarter in blazing 21.99 and half mile in 45.48 seconds. Despite this torrid pace, she continued to lead after six furlongs in 1:09.77 and stayed on gamely to lead to the final furlong when she was overtaken by the opportunistic favored stalking winner Mucho Unusual and weaken to be third. It’s not surprising that the fractions through the first six furlongs were coded red by TimeformUS and the strength of this Allowance victory has already been confirmed. The winner took advantage of another pace meltdown to the Grade 2 San Clemente on July 20 with a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure four points lower than Allowance win and the last place finisher Strike at Dawn won Allowance race on July 19 with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. VELVET QUEEN remains at her ideal distance and finds a field not loaded with the type of her early speed she encountered last time out. She returned with an easy five furlong move in 1:00⅘ on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Fine enough here rider down in the saddle to the line for the Baltas barn. Traveling smooth enough,” for this B- move. More importantly, she will make the early lead and if she can avoid running extremely wide like she did in her previous start over this turf course or running extremely fast early such as last time then VELVET QUEEN should encounter ideal circumstances on the front end over a track profile that favors her running style as my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (7) VELVET QUEEN at 2-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 7-1, 7-9. Small reverse for each.
Daily Double: 7 with 3, 6
Race 8: (6) CHIEF CICATRIZ
With rivals such as CALEXMAN and CISTRON in this field, the pace of this year’s Bing Crosby promises to be fast to horses that can handle such fast fractions and that should not help the morning line favorite RECRUITING READY. The five-year old Algorithms horse has found ideal race setups in his previous two starts Belmont Park and could not finish the deal with a victory. In the Run Happy Stakes, RECRUITING READY found himself pressing a slow pace noted by the blue TimeformUS pace figure for a half mile and when he was blown away by the perfect trip winner Firenze Fire, he was in a three horse battle to hold second over the opportunistic closer Bon Raison and pacesetter Killybegs Captain. In his most recent start, he pressed another moderate pace outside the leader Strike Power, put in his run to challenge the pacesetter at mid-stretch, and could not get by him as subsequent Grade 2 San Diego Handicap winner Catalina Cruiser rallied to get up over a main track that favored inside-speed on June 7 at Belmont Park. He will be forced to race further back than usual because he will encounter “California Speed” versus the type of early speed he has seen this year on the East Coast and he will be a play against in the Bing Crosby.
It’s rare that you find a race horse that has won as many as ten races from only fifteen starts but that is the case with our top choice CHIEF CICATRIZ who is rounding back to the form that saw him earn 129 TimeformUS and 110 Beyer Speed Figure in last year’s Grade 3 Aristides Handicap at Churchill Downs. A six furlong specialist with five wins from eight starts at this trip, CHIEF CICATRIZ was defeated at this trip on May 25 at Prairie Meadows when second behind D’ Rapper in the Ed Skinner Stakes and that second looks better considering that the winner went on to win his next two starts including the Iowa Sprint Handicap on July 5 with a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He bounced back from this defeat to win the Dark Star Cup at Canterbury Park on June 22 and did so in visually impressive fashion that has already been validated by subsequent performances of horses behind him. In that race, CHIEF CICATRIZ won a four-horse pace battle for the early lead through fast fractions with three pace rivals weaken to finish 4th, 5th, and 6th, and he kicked clear to win by 2-¾ lengths. What I find noteworthy about this performance was subsequent performances of the horses behind CHIEF CICATRIZ. The fifth-place finisher Hot Shot Kid won Minnesota Turf Sprint on July 3 with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure (3 point improvement), sixth-place finisher The Tabulator won an Allowance race at Thistledowns with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure (6 point improvement), and the seventh-place finisher Rock City Road Hog won a Starter Allowance race with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure (7 point improvement). The fact three horses behind CHIEF CICATRIZ all came back to win earning improved speed figures validates the win. A former one-dimensional front runner, CHIEF CICATRIZ should sit a garden trip on the outside in third tracking CALEXMAN and CISTRON in the clear a similar trip he had when he won Aristides Handicap last year. Ruben Fuentas who is off to a fast start this Del Mar takes over in the irons and at 12-1 on the morning line and with his win spirit and ability to win at all race tracks makes CHIEF CICATRIZ my best long shot bet on the program.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (6) CHIEF CICATRIZ at 8-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 6-3. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 6-4. No reverse.
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