Race 6: Gr. 1 Personal Ensign, 1-⅛ Miles, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS sees the first of six consecutive Gr. 1 races favoring horses on or near the early lead. Paid Up Subscriber will jump out of the gate to go for the early lead but most likely will sit outside of the flank of Curalina and sit second as those two will establish an anticipated tepid early pace. From the three other horses in this field, I’m A Chatterbox will be in position behind this soft early pace in third with Forever Unbridled and Curlina not too far behind in the rear of what looks to be a bunched field.
Paid Up Subscriber has the field’s highest TimeformUS early pace rating in the field and I’m A Chatterbox and Forever Unbridled are tied with the highest TimeformUS late pace rating in this field. Morning line favorite Curalina enters this field with the highest 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field.
My play against in this field belongs to Cavorting. She is undefeated in three starts here at Saratoga but those were at distances from six furlongs to seven furlongs. She enters this race with consecutive blowout victories in the Gr. 2 Ruffian and Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps both at Belmont Park where she had ideal circumstances en route to her emphatic victories. In the Gr. 2 Ruffian Stakes she enjoyed perfect trip sitting just off a two horse speed duel between Carrumba and Calamity Kate through a very slow early pace (designated by blue TimeformUS pace figures), she engage the leaders with a four wide move on the sweeping far turn at Belmont Park to take over the lead into the stretch, and won going away in a field where the four horses that she beat returned to run 3rd, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd in their next start. In the Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps on June 11 she rallied from second to last in a seven horse field to blow past the exhausted leaders to win by two and half lengths in a pace collapse that saw the first three finishers rally from 6th, 7th, and 5th after the first half mile. In addition to the pace collapse she made her rally with the grain of main track favoring outside closers (designed by blue TimeformUS Race Rating box). Her TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 and 115 are below some of the best in this field and she will have to prove herself around two turns at Saratoga and with pace scenario not favoring her closing style.
She is projected to get a great trip off a early pace that will favor horses on or near the lead, Paid Up Subscriber (#4) is in career best form having finished in the money in all four starts with two victories at Churchill Downs with her most significant victory being the Gr. 2 Fleur de Lis Handicap on June 18 where she enjoyed a perfect trip to her first Graded Stakes victory. The daughter of Candy Ride was forwardly placed along the rail behind the speed duel between Ahh Chocolate and Big Book through a moderate early pace. She continued saving ground on the far turn, found room between rivals into the stretch, split horses, took over the lead, and kicked away Brooklynsway to win by three-lengths earning career best 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. The Al Stall Jr. trainee returned in the Gr. 1 Delaware Oaks where she was sent off as the 9-5 second choice behind I’m A Chatterbox and she was badly hampered at the break. Once the gates opened, I’m A Chatterbox took a left hand swerve towards the two longest priced horses in the field, Milaya and Money’soncharlotte and that swerve cause a domino effect as Paid Up Subscriber was bumped hard from her hind end and was off slowly. She recovered to track the early the pace prompted by the eventual winner, continuing tracking a slow early pace on the far turn (blue coded pace figures), and rallied as well as she could under the circumstances to finish second beaten 2-¼ lengths. She will get her rematch with her aforementioned rival and with a clean start she can lead or sit just off Curlina early and get the jump on closers such as Forever Unbridled and Cavorting. She did win over this Saratoga main track as three-year old and has been based here since shipping from Churchill Downs in early July. Ricardo Santana Jr. who was aboard for her last two starts is back in the irons and she is the longest price of my three contenders in this field.
In my exotics I will recommend using just two horses. The morning line favorite, Curalina (#2), could not help but get a great trip off an early pace scenario that will favor horses on or near the early lead per TimeformUS pace projector. The daughter of Curlin was compromised as the beaten favorite in the Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps where she tracked an moderate early pace, put in her bid, and weaken in a race that completely fell apart for the closers as the first three finishers rallied from 6th, 7th, and 5th early. She enjoyed ideal conditions in the Gr. 3 Shuvee on July 31 recording her first victory where she crossed the finish line in first here at Saratoga as her previous victory was with an aid of disqualification. She prompted a very slow early pace outside of the pacesetter Carrumba early, took over the lead on the far turn, and drew off to win by 9-¼ lengths earning career best 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She figures to enjoy another similar trip as her main rivals are either stalkers and closers with Curalina and our top choice Paid Up Subscriber enjoying a comfortable trip on or near moderate to slow early fractions. Forever Unbridled (#3) rallied with the race shape to finish second in the Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps on June 11 but she is a proven two turn router having won the Gr. 1 Apple Blossom on April 15 at Oaklawn Park. In that race she was forwardly placed close to a very slow early pace established by dueling leaders Streamline and the favorite Untapable early. The Unbridled’s Song filly made three wide move into that slow pace to battle with those two pace rivals, shook clear of Streamline in deep stretch, and kicked clear to win by 2-¼ lengths earning career best 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Joel Rosario who has a win and second from two starts with this filly is back aboard and look for a similar trip as the Apple Blossom Stakes.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) Paid Up Subscriber
Exacta box key: 4 / 2, 3
Race 7: Gr. 1 Ballerina, 7 Furlongs, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector projects that this race will unfold at an early pace that will favor horses on or near the early lead. Linda Linda and longshot Sarah Sis the probable two horses that will go to the early lead. Tracking that pair in third will be Paulasilverlining. In behind this trio of early leaders include By the Moon, the three-year old Carina Mia, and Haveyougoneaway in that second flight. Sheer Drama, Spelling Again, and Wavell Avenue will drop back towards the rear of the field as Birdonthewire will be lagging in last hoping for a complete pace meltdown for her late kick.
The morning line favorite Wavell Avenue returned to her best form and visited the Winner’s Circle for the first time this year in the Shine Again Stakes on August 3 a race where she finished fourth beaten five-lengths last year. In that race, she recorded the co-highest 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure with Carina Mia. However the conditions that each horse earned their respective speed figure was different and Wavell Avenue earned that speed figure under ideal circumstances. She was not asked for early speed as she trailed the field in eighth early behind a very quick early pace (red designated TimeformUS pace figures) set by West Coast Chick chased by Momameamaria, Promise Me Silver, and Linda Linda. Jockey Joel Rosario rode the rail saving every inch of ground on the turn before angling her outside for a clear path at the 1/8th pole, and won going away. The circumstances today are a lot different as there is not a plethora of early speed signed on and she will have to face an accomplished three-year old filly and a rival that will get the jump on her in the stretch.
After reviewing this race my plan was going to single one horse but I am going to use two horses as my co-top choices in the Ballerina Stakes. Carina Mia (#9) enters this race into career top form having finished in the money in three of four starts this year and her lone off the board finish in the Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes was actually a good effort in defeat where she and her pace rival Rachel Valentina battled head and head through very fast early fractions racing along the inside and stayed on gamely to mid-stretch and tired to finish fourth beaten 2-½ lengths over a main track that strongly favored closers (designated by blue TimeformUS Race Rating box). She turned back to score a visually impressive victory in the Gr. 2 Eight Belles at today’s seven furlong distance and she turned the tables on Cathryn Sophia in the Gr. 1 Acorn Stakes. She broke with the field and raced in traffic between rivals behind a quick early pace established by three-horse speed duel among Paola Queen, Cathryn Sophia, and Go Maggie Go. Jockey Julien Leparoux got her to relax towards the rear of the field behind that three horse speed duel. She moved up between rivals into the far turn, angled four wide with dead aim on the leaders into the stretch, and kick past Cathryn Sophia to win by 1-¼ lengths earning a then career best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when Off the Tracks returned to win the Gr. 1 Mother Goose on July 2 with a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure and fifth-place finisher Paola Queen returned on August 6 to win the Gr. 1 Test. She stretched back out to 1-⅛ miles in the Gr. 1 Coaching Club American Oaks on July 24 and she earned co-highest last race 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure in defeat behind the now ten-for-ten champion Songbird. In that race, she sat just off the pacesetter Songbird through moderate half mile. She made her bid to challenge the favored winner into the turn and actually poked her head in front approaching the quarter pole but Songbird turned her away and she was second best finishing four lengths in front of the rest of the field. The form of that race was confirmed when the winner returned to win Gr. 1 Alabama Stakes with 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She returns to her preferred one turn trip and she has enough tactical speed where she will be placed in behind the trio of leaders Linda Linda, Sarah Sis, and Paulasilverlining and if she reproduces any of her two wins this year then the rest of the field is running for second.
My co-top choice in my horizontal wagers is Paulasilverlining (#3). The daughter of Ghostzapper is in top form finishing first or second in all five starts this year with three victories but the one victory that stamped her as my co-top choice with Carina Mia is her 3-¾ length romp in the Gr. 3 Distaff Handicap at today’s seven furlong distance. In that race she broke running to go for the early lead but jockey Jose Ortiz decided to allow 50-1 longshot Madam Aamoura to go for the early lead and that rival was allowed to set a very slow early pace for the first quarter of a mile. She moved up to take over the lead into the stretch and kicked away to win by 3-¾ lengths while drifting out and in towards the wire earning a career best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The validity of that figure was confirmed when FOUR horses behind her came back to win their next start making the Gr. 3 Distaff Handicap a monster “key” race. She came back to win the Gr. 3 Vagrancy at Belmont Park handily as the 1-5 post time favorite and she returned from a sixty-seven day layoff in the Gr. 2 Honorable Miss the traditional prep for the Gr. 1 Ballerina and she ran a winning race in defeat getting wore down by the opportunistic closer Haveyougoneaway by a neck. Breaking from the rail, she broke running and was part of the contested battle for the lead but was eased back off a four-horse speed duel as they tore through a quick 22.01 second opening quarter of a mile. She moved up closer to challenge for the lead around the far turn, opened up a clear lead at mid-stretch, and was caught to lose by a neck earning 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure which ranks as the second highest last race speed figure in this field. The Michelle Nevin trainee returns to her preferred seven furlong distance and should get ideal trip in a race that will favor horses on or near the early lead. Linda Linda and longshot Sarah Sis will vie for the early lead and expect Jose Ortiz to track that duo in third early before making her bid for the lead on the far turn. After going off as the favorite in three of her last four starts, Paulasilverlining should be a hint of a price.
In my exotics underneath those two horses I will use two horses. The first is Gr. 1 winner Sheer Drama (#4). The daughter of Burning Roma defeated three Gr. 1 winners in the Gr. 1 Madison at Keeneland where she had a perfect trip tracking a blistering four-horse speed duel along the rail, eased outside for a clear run into the stretch, and held off the late charge of Stopchargingmaria to win by a neck. Despite the caliber of field, the race did not returned to be productive as eight horses returned to lose their next start with only two of them finishing third and her victory in the Madison was complete pace meltdown with the first four finishers rallied from 7th, 5th, 10th, and 11th early. She returns off a 77 day layoff for trainer David Fawkes who has won at 18% clip (3-for-17) the past five years with dirt sprinters returning off a layoff of 57 to 96 days. The main knock is the race favors horses on or near the front end and she will most likely not see the pace meltdown she took advantage of when she won the Madison back in April. My knockout longshot is Linda Linda (#6) for the always dangerous Ignacio Correas IV barn. She was a Group 1 winner and placed in her native Chile and she made her North American debut in the Shining Again Stakes where she chased that fast early pace (red coded pace figure) set by West Coast Chick chased by Momameamaria and Promise Me Silver and though no match for either the opportunistic closer Wavell Avenue or second place finisher Momameamaria she stayed on to finish third. She will make her second start off the layoff and finds a field not loaded with plethora of early speed and make her speed last longer with that race under her belt and less speed in this field.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (3) Paulasilverlining
Exacta Box: 3-9
Small Exactas: 3-4, 3-6, 9-4, 9-6
Race 8: Gr. 1 King’s Bishop, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a fast early pace that could set it up for the horses coming from off the pace. The Bob Baffert trained Jazzy Times will go straight having pressed the pace or being on the lead in all four starts and will be joined for the early lead by Woodbine shipper Noholdingback Bear with the other Bob Baffert trainee DreFong in third chasing that duel prompting the pace in the clear. Fish Trappe Road, Summer Revolution, and Bird Song will be in the first flight behind the trio of leaders. In mid-pack look for Economic Model, Tale of S’avall, and Star Hill along with Mohaymen, Mind Your Biscuits, Tom’s Ready, and Rated R Superstar in the rear hoping for the fast pace to collapse for their late kick to be effective.
Noholdingback Bear has the highest TimeformUS early pace rating in the field joined in second by DreFong. If a fast pace does collapse expect Mohaymen with the field’s highest TimeformUS late pace rating to be charging from well back. DreFong owns the highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 127 in the field.
My play against in this race is Mohaymen who will get plenty of attention for exiting the Kentucky Derby two races back and comes off a fourth-place finish in the Jim Dandy Stakes last time out. The Tapit colt won his first five starts but has been plagued by excuses in his last three defeats. He did not handle the surface and had a very wide trip when he finished fourth in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby behind subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. In the Kentucky Derby, he lagged in mid-pack behind a very fast early pace (designated red TimeformUS pace figures) and put in a wide rally to miss third by a head. He was sent off as the favorite for the Jim Dandy but lost his best chance when he stumbled at the start and ran around the race track behind the gate to wire winner Laoban. He has not been one turn since his Nashua victory as a two-year old and there are others in this field accomplished around one turn or a middle distance that makes Mohaymen a play against in the King’s Bishop.
I have always been high on DreFong (#13) ever since he was bet down to the favorite in his career debut last October at Santa Anita. He ran greenly that day breaking slowly from the gate and then ducked in sharply in deep stretch as he attempted to make his move for the lead. He put it all together in his second career start breaking his maiden by 9-½ lengths over an overmatched field of maidens. The son of Gio Ponti has been a stronger and faster race horse as three-year old and this race has been the goal for this $450,000 Keeneland September 2014 yearling purchase. He made his three-year old debut off a 198 day layoff and could not have been more impressive. He was sent off as the 2-1 second choice where he battled for the early lead between Gutsy Ruler and Saint of Saints through a fast opening quarter in 21.43 seconds. He put away the latter and dueled inside with the former around the far turn through a 44.12 second half mile, easily shook clear of that rival, and drew off to win by 3-½ lengths earning a then career best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This speed figure was earned in a legit manner as his two pace rivals he dueled with tired to finish 4th beaten 5-½ lengths and 6th and last beaten 12-¾ lengths. The Bob Baffert trainee returned 35-days later in a Allowance N2X on July 4 and showed he is not a one dimensional speed horse but can successfully rate and finish. In that race, he was out-sprinted for the early lead by the very fast Guy Code who set a blazing 21.30 second opening quarter of a mile. With room along the rail, Mike Smith moved DreFong along the rail to grab the lead after a 43.80 second half mile and was ridden out to the wire to win by 5-¼ lengths earning the field’s best last race 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That speed figure is five and six points better than the second and third best last race speed figures in this field and it was validated when the third-place finisher, Why Two, came back to win Allowance N2X and Green Flash Handicap going five furlongs on the turf with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 113 and 119 respectively. The Allowance to a Grade 1 sprint is no issue because trainer Bob Baffert has successfully scored with this angle in the past. Secret Circle (November 2, 2013, $2.50-1) won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint after a prep in a Allowance race and most recently Lord Nelson (June 25, 2016, $2.10-1) won the Gr. 1 Triple Bend after a prep in a Allowance race. He was visually impressive working six furlongs from the gate in 1:12 flat on August 14 in company with stablemate Dortmund that easily could have received an A-. Drawn outside jockey Mike Smith can see what the other two main speed rivals, Jazzy Times and Noholdingback Bear, do before making his move for the lead. He was going to be my BEST BET before the post position draw and now will be my Pick 6 single with Flintshire in the Gr. 1 Sword Dancer later on the card.
In my exotics I will look at four horses in what will be a straight exacta. In no order of preference, Economic Model (#1) has finished first or second in five of six starts with his only bad race happen in the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 12 where he tracked modest early pace along the rail on a day when the outside paths were best. In his most recent start he earned a career best 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Gr. 3 Dwyer on July 9 when he stalked the pace along the rail and continued riding the rail into the stretch where he held on for second. This performance is better than looked because he ran on the rail on a day when the outside paths were best. He must overcome the rail draw in full field of thirteen. Fish Trappe Road (#2) was clearly best when last seen at this seven furlong distance in the Gr. 2 Woody Stephens on June 11 where he forced a blazing early pace set by Justin Squared (red coded pace figures), shook that rival, lead, and was caught by the opportunistic closer Tom’s Ready towards the wire at 25-1. Last time out he enjoyed a comfortable trip tracking a moderate early pace along the good outside paths and kicked away with a perfect trip. Another horse that must overcame his post position with all the speed to his outside. Star Hill (#7) cuts back in distance after a better than looked third place finish in the Gr. 2 Indiana Derby on July 16 at Indiana Grand. He was parked four to five wide every step, made an extended run to loom into contention around the far turn, and lost his punch late but was well clear of the rest of the field. That race returned to be very productive producing THREE next time out winners. He will now switch to Florent Geroux and gets blinkers for the first time and he will drop back and make one run at a early pace that is projected to be very fast per TimeformUS pace projector. Tale of S’Avall (#4) he lost all chance in the Woody Stephens on June 11 when he was squeezed at the start, broke second to last, rushed up to chase the blazing pace in mid-pack, and did well to split the field. Although he is eligible for Allowance N1X the fast pace and his sustained closing kick can see him pick up the pieces to grab a share at a big price.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (13) DreFong
Exacta key: 13 / 1, 2, 4, 7. No reverse.
Pick 4: 13 / 2, 11, 12 / 6 / 1, 2, 7, 12, 14 = 1 x 3 x 1 x 5 = $15 for a $1 Wager.
Race 9: Gr. 1 Priority Jets Forego, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that is neutral for all running style. There was a plethora of early speed in the Tale of the Cat on August 12 and the runner-up who was closest to that fast pace, Chief Lion, will fleet post position two and go straight to the early lead and will find company early in morning line favorite A.P. Indian early. The horses that will be chasing that duo in the first flight are Catalina Red, Limousine Liberal, and Marketing. Those that will be out-sprinted for the early lead content to lay in mid-pack are Anchor Down, Tamarkuz, and Stallwalkin’ Dude. Horses that hope a fast pace speed duel collapses for their sustained kick are The Truth or Else, Schivarelli, Ready for Rye, and Dannie’s Deceiver.
The central theme of my Saratoga handicap on Travers day program has been early speed and I always favor horses that lost their previous start when he or she is the only horse to survive a fast pace and finish in the money. If that horse comes back in a race where they get a favorable pace scenario then he or she is the top choice. Chief Lion (#2) fits that profile perfectly as he comes into the Gr. 1 Forego off two defeats in the Gr. 2 Smile Sprint Handicap and Tale of the Cat Stakes. A closer review of the charts with the pace figures conclude that Chief Lion is the speed of this year’s Forego and is the one they must catch at what should be a generous price. He was sent off as the third choice in the Gr. 2 Smile Sprint Handicap and he ran the second best race to the gate to wire winner Delta Bluesman. The Wildcat Heir gelding broke running and battled head and head with the winner as they opened up a four-length and 3-½ length lead on the next horse as they battled through very fast early fractions (red designated TimeformUS pace figures). The David Jacobson trainee was turned away by the winner and lost second on the wire to the opportunistic stalker Limousine Liberal who rallied to pick up the pieces from third. He earned a then career best 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure but the validity of that figure was not confirmed as four horses came back to finish 4th, 5th, 3rd, and 5th in their next start. The gray or roan gelding made his next start in the Tale of the Cat at six furlongs on August 12 in a field that was loaded with early speed that figured to compromise his chances but Chief Lion ran superb in defeat as he was the only horse that was close to that very fast early pace (red coded pace figures) to finish in the money as the race fell apart for the closers. In that race he was out-sprinted for the early lead by a three horse speed duel among Big Guy Ian, Dads Cap, and Lewys Vaporizer, made a four wide move into the teeth of that fast pace joining the speed duel four wide on the turn, shook free of those three pace rivals to take over the lead at mid-stretch, and was run down by the opportunistic closer Stallwalkin Dude. He earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure which is the second highest last race speed figure only behind A.P. Indian’s 127 in the Gr. 1 Vanderbilt. What makes Chief Lion’s performance stand out was the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th place finishers rallied from 8th, 6th, 9th, and 10th as Chief Lion’s three pace rivals weaken badly to finish 6th, 9th, and 10th as Chief Lion won the early pace battle but lost the war. He will now stretch out to seven furlongs a distance he is winless in two starts but the field’s probable pacesetter will not have to set a demanding pace he has chased or pressed in his last two starts. With Florent Geroux taking over in the irons, I expect Chief Lion and take it to this field from the start and attempt theft tactics. He will be generous price and I look for him to be overlooked by bettors because they will be attracted by the two morning line favorites, A.P. Indian and Marking.
In my exotics I will use three main rivals. A.P. Indian (#11) enters this race off a four race win streak including his first Gr. 1 victory in the Gr. 1 Vanderbilt on July 30 at Saratoga where he enjoyed ideal circumstances en route to earning career best 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race he prompted the early pace outside of Delta Bluesman early, battled with him and Holy Boss around the far turn, shook free of those rivals at mid-stretch, and kicked clear to win by 1-¼ lengths. This race featured a race shape that strongly favored horses running on or near the early lead as the first four finishers ran 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd after a half mile. The stretch out to seven furlongs should be no issue as he is a perfect 3-for-3 at today’s distance but he will have to chase and press a classy speed horse in Chief Lion. Marking (#12) was beaten a head when he last faced A.P. Indian in the Gr. 2 Belmont Sprint Championship but lost more ground than the margin of defeat would indicate as he ran 43ft and 19ft more than the winner and third-place finisher respectively. Prior to that effort his other effort at seven furlong was to last year’s Eclipse Award Sprinter of the Year Runhappy in the Gr. 1 Malibu Stakes. Stallwalkin’ Dude (#8) took advantage of a complete pace meltdown when he rallied from eighth to blow past his stablemate Chief Lion in the Tale of the Cat last time out here at Saratoga. He set a sizzling early pace (red coded pace figures) and tired only in the final eighth of a mile in Allowance race on July 14.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (2) Chief Lion
Main Exacta: 2 / 8, 11, 12. Small reverse.
Race 10: Gr. 1 Sword Dancer, 1-½ Miles, Three-year olds and up
TimeformUS pace projector predicts that the early pace does not favor a specific running style and should fair for all styles. Roman Approval will shoot straight for the early lead under Florent Geroux. The field’s likely leader will be chased by Grand Tito, Money Multiplier, and Applicator through the first half mile. Flintshire’s stablemate, Inordinate, is projected to be in mid-pack but is used as a rabbit to ensure an honest pace for his more fancied stablemate. The morning line favorite Flintshire will take his customary role towards the rear of the field early as Twilight Eclipse will drop back and attempt to turn the tables on the latter.
The field’s most probable pacesetter in the Sword Dancer is Roman Approval as he enters this field with the highest TimeformUS early pace rating in the field. At distances such as 1-¼ to 1-½ miles, morning line favorite Flintshire has the field’s highest last race 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure as well as the best finishing kick in the field.
Flintshire (#6) is the stand out in not only the Sword Dancer but also in this all Gr. 1 Pick 6 on Travers day at Saratoga. He made his first start for Chad Brown in the Gr. 1 Manhattan Stakes on June 11 and received a beautiful European style ride en route to a convincing 1-¾ length victory. The Dansili horse drafted in the two path behind the three early leaders World Approval, Grand Tito, and Divisidero. He continued to race in behind that trio on the far turn, angled out four wide into the stretch, and delivered a devastating late kick to blow past the leaders to win going away covering his final quarter of a mile in 21.49 seconds. The form of that race was flattered when the third-place finisher, World Approval, came back to win the Gr. 1 United Nations with 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The beautiful dark bay horse was entered forty-nine days later in the Gr. 2 Bowling Green on July 30 where he stretched out to 1-⅜ miles and did win as the rider pleased per the trouble comment. In the four-horse field, he drafted in third behind a very slow early pace (blue designated TimeformUS pace figures). He was boxed in through the first mile of the trip, angled out for a clear run into the stretch, and blew past his overmatched rivals as jockey Javier Castellano confidently looked over the other rivals to win by a measured three-quarters of a length earning field’s best last race 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The homebred is right at home at 1-½ miles where he owns a outstanding 16-4-8-1 record and the rest of the field is 19-3-3-8. Pace Projector sees Flintshire drop back and make that one run into the stretch. He is undefeated in two starts over the Saratoga turf course and is your single in all your horizontal wagers.
Wagering Strategies: No play as Flintshire is the 1-5 morning line favorite and is no more than a single in your horizontal wagers.
Race 11: Gr. 1 Travers Stakes, 1-¼ Miles, Three-year olds
TimeformUS pace projector predicts a fast early pace that could set it up perfectly for the stalkers and closers in this field. American Freedom will go straight to the front but will be pressed by Jim Dandy winner Laoban early. The horses that will get first run on the front runners if they tire are Arrogate, Connect, and Gun Runner. The horses that will be patiently waiting in mid-pack are Anaximandors, Destin, Gift Box, and Majesto. If the pace is so fast that the front runners are spent, look for closers such as Forever D’Oro, My Man Sam, Governor Malibu, and morning line favorite Exaggerator to be charging with their moves leaving the backstretch.
The field’s most probable pacesetter in the Travers Stakes is American Freedom who owns the field’s highest last race TimeformUS early pace rating in the field and not too far behind in second regards to early pace is Laoban. The field’s highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 123 belongs to morning line favorite Exaggerator and the field’s best last race TimeformUS late pace rating belongs to Belmont Stakes winner Creator whose late kick will only be flattered if the fast pace materializes as Pace Projectors suggest.
American Freedom (#2) had always shown plenty of promise in his three victories this year as this son of Pulpit looks to stamp himself as one of the best horses of his generation. His lone off the board finish in five starts happened when he was reeled back in only four weeks off a maiden victory and managed to split the field in the fourteen horse Pat Day Mile where he was out-sprinted for the early lead by the very fast Sharp Azteca who won gate to wire establishing a blistering early through the first six furlongs (designated by red TimeformUS pace figures) en route to two and a half length margin of victory. He stretched out to two turns for the first time in the Sir Barton Stakes and showed he can ration out his speed to 1-1/16 miles winning by one-length defeating a “key” race field that saw the second-and-fourth place finishers come back to win. His most impressive performance came in the Iowa Derby where he won by four and three-quarter lengths earning a then career best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race he was parked three wide into and around the far turn, angled over into the two path down the backstretch, and continued pressing a tepid pace through the first six furlongs (designated by blue TimeformUS pace figures). He was able to shake clear of his early rivals and kicked clear defeating Texas Chrome who came back to win the Prelude Stakes at Louisiana Downs in his next start. He was taking a big step up in class from the Iowa Derby (112 TimeformUS race rating) to the Gr. 1 Haskell Stakes (124 TimeformUS race rating) and he ran second finishing length and half behind Exaggerator. A closer inspection of that race reveals that American Freedom ran the best race in the field and one only has to watch the replay and review the race chart to appreciate his effort in defeat. He was floated four paths off the rail by the favorite Nyquist and pressed the Kentucky Derby winner through a quick pace for a half mile (red coded pace figures). The Bob Baffert trainee poked his head in front into the far turn only to get another challenge from Gun Runner as those three battled through the turn setting it up perfectly for the opportunistic closer Exaggerator to sweep past American Freedom to register his third Grade 1 victory this year. The bay colt ran superb in defeat when you consider he was part of that fast pace where the three horses that chased him for the first six furlongs tired badly to finish fourth beaten 3-¾ lengths, fifth beaten 6-¼ lengths, and sixth and last beaten 32 lengths. His 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure ranks as the second highest last race speed figure in this field and two points better than Laoban’s victory in the Jim Dandy one day earlier where he benefited from an uncontested early lead through slow fractions (blue coded pace figures). He will remove the blinkers for the first time in a Graded Stakes route and trainer Bob Baffert has won at 50% clip (3-for-6) the past five years with that move and his most successful trainee who won with that move was Bodemeister who won the Arkansas Derby by 9-½ lengths. If Laoban elects to go straight to the front then jockey Rafael Bejarano can elect to track that pacesetter in second and make his bid for the lead leaving the backstretch. He was my confirmed Travers horse after his game runner-up effort in the Haskell Stakes and believe he is primed for a breakthrough performance at a hint of a price.
Gun Runner (#14) is one horse from the Kentucky Derby that I prefer over the others in this year’s Travers Stakes. The son of Candy Ride ran a superb third in a race where the horses that finished 2nd, 4th, and 5th rallied from 15th, 12th, and 19th. In the Kentucky Derby he broke running to be on top a few strides leaving the gate but settled into comfortable position on the rail chasing the very fast early pace (red designated TimeformUS pace figures) of the leader Danzig Candy. He was angled off the rail after the first six furlongs and made his move to grab the lead into the stretch only to be collared by the favored Nyquist at mid-stretch and held on well to be third in a race where the minor placings were dominated by closers. After an emphatic paid workout in the Matt Winn Stakes he returned in the Gr. 1 Haskell Stakes where he took on Nyquist and Exaggerator and managed to defeat only one horse to the wire losing by 6-¼ to the opportunistic closer Exaggerator. In the Haskell, he settled off the dueling leaders American Freedom and Nyquist early, as the field reached the far turn he made a three wide move to challenge those leaders in a three-horse duel for the lead, and that wide move into the teeth of a fast pace took its toll as this Steve Asmussen trainee tired through the stretch to finish fifth. He is winless on a wet fast track and returns to a fast main track where he owns fine record 6-5-0-1 with his lone third being his excellent third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He will have more than an eighth of a mile from post position fourteen to get over and not lose too much ground into the first turn and with his tactical speed get the jump on the closers.
Arrogate (#1) is a horse that I have been very high on since he made his debut on April 17 in a six-furlong maiden race at Los Alamitos and he was much the best. He promptly broke his maiden when he stretched out for the first time in his second career start. The one performance that stamped this son of Unbridled’s Song as a horse that his connections can point for a race such as the Travers Stakes was his Allowance N1X on June 24 at Santa Anita where he won under confident handling by Rafael Bejarano. Breaking from the rail he broke a bit slowly but recovered quickly to set the early pace and received pressure Chief of Staff as those two battled head and head through tepid early pace for half mile (designated by blue TimeformUS pace figures). He was able to shake loose of his pace rival on the far turn, opened up from the rest of the field, and won geared down with effortless stride to the wire earning career best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The performance was flattered when his pace rival Chief of Staff that finished 16-½ lengths behind Arrogate came back on July 17 and won Allowance N1X at Del Mar by 1-½ lengths earning 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was an Allowance N2X on August 4 at Del Mar as his final prep for the Midsummer Derby and overcame a wide journey and slow early pace in a three-horse field to win by 1-¾ lengths posting a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race, he was floated very wide through the first half mile by outsider Teniente Coronel as the pacesetter Kristo was able to set a very slow measured pace through first six furlongs (blue coded pace figures). He made his move midway on the far turn, grabbed the lead, and kicked clear. He will now get the acid test in class as he will face the toughest competition in four starts per TimeformUS Race Ratings and has yet to face a rival as accomplished as Exaggerator or Creator. The positives are distance laden pedigree as her dam, Bubbler, won four route races from 1 Mile 70 Yards to 1-⅛ miles and Arrogate has successfully transferred her dam’s affinity for a route of ground. He is drawn comfortably on the rail where new jockey Mike Smith can settle Arrogate in behind American Freedom and Laoban and be positioned in third and get first run on the closers such as Exaggerator, Creator, and My Man Sam. The lack of seasoning will be compensated with a healthy price if he wins his first Grade 1.
Creator (#12) is the one closer in this field that I will back with confidence because his Jim Dandy performance was simply a throw out effort. He finished last in a six-horse field beaten 9-¼ lengths where the leader and eventual winner Laoban was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace (blue coded pace figures) through the first six furlongs and made no impact in a race where the first four finishers ran 1st, 3rd, 2nd, and 4th after the first half mile where a closer such as Creator had no chance versus that race shape and pace scenario. In his previous start at today’s 1-¼ mile distance, he lost all chance when he was cut off by another horse and bumped sharply into the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby but recovered and passed tired rivals to finish 13th. He received a beautiful ground saving ride from Iran Ortiz Jr. to rally from tenth behind a brisk pace (red coded pace figures) to catch Destin on the wire of the Gr. 1 Belmont Stakes. If the pace does indeed fall apart for the closers, Creator will be the one horse finishing through the stretch.
Exaggerator (#7) has been the beneficiary of race track conditions (sloppy) and fast pace race set ups (red designated TimeformUS pace figures) in his three biggest Gr. 1 victories this year: Santa Anita Derby, Preakness Stakes, and last time out in the Haskell Stakes. He must prove that he cannot only win on a fast main track but can win at the classic distance of 1-¼ mile on a fast main track.
Wagering Strategies: I’m looking to beat Exaggerator and make American Freedom the focus on my wagers in the Travers because I feel the son of Pulpit ran the best race in defeat in the Haskell and should enjoy a great trip just off Laoban early. If Gun Runner is anywhere near 8-1 or higher come post time I will recommend a win bet on him.
WIN bet on (14) GUN RUNNER to WIN = $16
$6 Exacta part-wheel: (2) American Freedom with (1) Arrogate, (12) Creator, (14) Gun Runner = $18
$4 Exacta part-wheel: (1) Arrogate, (12) Creator, (14) Gun Runner with (2) American Freedom = $12
$4 Exacta part-wheel: (2) American Freedom with (7) Exaggerator = $4
Total Wager: $50
