Race 6: Gr. 1 Del Mar Oaks, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year old Fillies
The TimeformUS pace projector predicts that this race will unfold at an early pace that will favor horses on or near the early pace. Mines and Magic will go for the early lead but will be tracked by Stays in Vegas with Lady Valeur tracking the pace from the rail around the first turn and into the backstretch. Barleysugar will be tracking those leaders in mid-pack alongside morning line favorite Mokat. In mid-pack will be Harmonize and Tin Type Gal. Those that will be charging from well back hoping for a pace meltdown to set up their late kick are Decked Out, Lynne’s Legacy, Cheekaboo, and Mrs. Norris.
She was my top choice at 10-1 when she won the Sandy Blue Stakes at today’s 1-⅛ miles distance but my stand in this race is against Barleysugar (#5) who will get plenty of attention because she has a win at today’s distance and course and she enters this race off the field’s top last race 91 Beyer Speed Figure. A closer examination of that speed figure indicates it was a perfect setup for this daughter of Kyllachy. She settled in midpack along the rail more than ten lengths behind loose leader Nine Point Nine who was chased by 54-1 longshot Dynamic Misses K and 86-1 longshot Olotta Shaken as those three blazed through a rapid early pace. Barleysugar moved up along the rail down the backstretch, inherited the lead from the tired pacesetter Nine Point Nine, and won going away by 2-¾ lengths. The early pace completely collapsed for those rallying from midpack or towards the rear of the field as the first three finishers rallied from 5th, 8th, and 10th early and the three horses on or near the lead tired to finish 7th, 9th, and 10th. She takes a step in class and finds pace scenario that can compromise her running style. There are other fillies in this race whose running style will flatter the likely pace scenario that are proven versus today’s competition.
She was my third choice on the July 23 Gr. 2 San Clemente where she finished third but Stays In Vegas (#10) gets the decision to reverse the tables on morning line favorite Mokat after she endured a terrible trip in that prep for today’s Del Mar Oaks. She ran at this distance only once in the Gr. 2 Honeymoon on June 19 at Santa Anita and she was the victim of staying close to a very quick pace established by the longshot Gone to Bali. In that race she was sitting in third going into the first turn, moved up into second down the backstretch, and chased that very quick pace set by the pacesetter Gone to Bali (22.72 and 45.92 seconds). She put in her run midway on the far turn to take over the lead entering the stretch, opened up a 1-½ length lead at mid-stretch, and was only caught inside the final 70 yards by the first two finishers who benefited from the fast pace to rally from 7th and 5th after the first half mile and the leader and the next closest horse to that early pace weaken to finish 7th and 9th. The daughter of City Zip deserves extra credit for being the only horse close to the early pace to hold on well at the finish. The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee figured to enjoy the cut back to one-mile in the Gr. 2 San Clemente but she was given too much to do as a wide trip from post position nine in a ten horse field compromised her chances. When the gates open and horses breaking inside of her will get a position close to the early pace, jockey Alex Solis elected to take her back to ninth early and then was parked three wide down the backstretch as the leader Belvoir Bay and presser Lady Valeur were allowed to press leisurely half mile in 47.06 seconds. She split rivals three wide around the far turn, found traffic entering the stretch, ducked over to the rail and rallied as best as she could to miss second by three-quarters of a length but was no match to the runaway winner Mokat. Not only was she up against the race shape that favored horses on or near the lead by trying to rally from last but she navigated a trip further than the first two finishers. According to Trakus, Stays in Vegas covered 24ft and 36ft more than Mokat and Lady Valeur respectively and once again deserves attention rallying to finish third behind a slow pace and doing so covering more ground than the first two finishers. She makes a significant rider upgrade to leading rider Flavien Prat who owns 14 turf wins from his meet leading 26 wins this meet and should find a pace scenario that will suit her up front running style. Mines and Magic was pressing the early pace or being forwardly placed in her last three starts on the main track and with Lady Valeur in this field, Stays in Vegas will be forwardly placed close to the early pace which will not be as fast as the one she encountered in the June 19 Honeymoon Stakes. The chestnut filly has thrived since that defeat almost four weeks ago with three workouts including a best of the morning six furlong move on August 14 in 1:13 ⅘ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved about with a B+ stating “Good late rush while chasing home a short working D'Amato trainee in 38.0, 113.3 (35.3 L3f). Clearly happier over the turf.”. After going off at 3-1 or less in three starts this year, Stays In Vegas will now be a decent price and should not be overlooked for a barn that can have a huge day with Songbird favored to remain undefeated in ten starts in the Gr. 1 Alabama at Saratoga.
In my exotics I will give my second preference in equal strength with my top choice and that selection is Mokat (#3). Her connections were ambitious placing her behind Songbird more than once including a Gr. 1 place in the Santa Anita Oaks. After finishing in front of only one horse in the Gr. 1 Kentucky Oaks she returned from more than a two month layoff on her preferred surface, turf, and she romped by 3-¾ length at a generous 7-1 under a perfect trip and ride by Kent Desormeaux in the Gr. 2 San Clemente on July 23 here at Del Mar. The daughter of Uncle Mo broke one position inside of Stays in Vegas but was able to get over to the rail going into the first turn and saved ground in mid-pack early behind a slow early pace set by Belvoir Bay early. The Richard Baltas trainee was full of run leaving the backstretch and into the first turn where she split rivals approaching the quarter pole to blow past the leader Lady Valeur and kicked clear to the wire earning a career best 90 Beyer Speed Figure which is the second highest last race speed figure in this field. The dark bay or brown filly is right at home over this Del Mar turf course with a stellar record of 3-2-1-0 and her lone defeat was by a half-length. She will stretch out an additional eighth of a mile on Saturday but she has excellent tactical speed where she will be position in that first flight behind the early leaders saving ground into the first turn and get the jump on the closers such as Decked Out, Lynne’s Legacy, Cheekaboo, and Mrs. Norris and has returned with two stellar moves over the Del Mar turf course according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a B move on August 14 that Andy stated “Sharp as ever moving with purpose for Baltas going the last 1/4 mile in 23.2. In strong form.” Jockey Kent Desormeaux hops off Mokat to ride Decked Out for his brother Keith but gets suitable replacement in Norberto Arroyo Jr. who has five turf wins this meet from his eight wins this meet. Harmonize (#7) ships in from New York to get her first Gr. 1 victory and where she will not be trying to chase Catch A Glimpse who ran her record to a perfect eight victories from as many starters in the Gr. 1 Belmont Oaks where this daughter of Scat Daddy managed to split the field encountering a wide journey behind the uncontested gate to wire winner. The Bill Mott trainee was caught three wide through the first six furlongs in moderate 1:13.87 seconds, moved up four wide to try to inch closer at the leader, fanned five wide into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire beaten seven lengths. The bay filly covered 52ft and 43ft more than the winner and second-place finisher per Trakus and has been specifically pointed for the Gr. 1 Del Mar Oaks for trainer Bill Mott who has connected at 23% (5-for-22) with his turf starters in a Graded Stakes on this Southern California circuit the past five years. Decked Out (#2) finished 2-½ lengths behind Harmonize in the Gr. 1 Belmont Oaks where she was no match behind the gate to wire winner Catch a Glimpse. However one can make the argument she could have been right there with the winner Cheekaboo in the Gr. 2 Honeymoon on June 19 if she did not have to alter course off the heels of Lady Valeur and she almost overcame that incident to lose by a half-length. She has trained beautifully over this Del Mar turf course per National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a B work on August 7 that Andy stated “Came home striding out with plenty in reserve in 39.2, 104.0.” The feeling in this corner is that both Harmonious and Decked Out prefer to rally from off the pace and will need get sufficient early pace for their running style and I do not see that happening.
The Play: I am going to play this race in a approach that will be the same as the 8th race. My belief is that the early pace will be slow enough where the horses closing from off the pace such as Harmonious and Decked Out will be compromised by those forwardly placed to those on or near the early lead. Stays In Vegas and Mokat are main two horses that will benefit from this pace scenario and I will look to center my wagers strictly around those two horses.
WIN bet on (10) STAYS IN VEGAS at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta Box: 3-10
Smaller Exactas: 3-2, 3-7, 10-2, 10-7. No reverse.
Pick 3: 3, 10 / 4 / 3, 4, 11 = 2 x 1 x 3 x $2 = $12
Pick 3: 10 / 2, 4, 8, 10 / 3, 4, 11 = 1 x 4 x 3 x $1 = $12
Race 8: Gr. 2 Del Mar Handicap, 1-⅜ Miles, Three-year olds and upward
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race devoid of a confirmed front runner. The longshot El Huerfano will go straight to the front by jockey Brice Blanc but will be chased or pressed by morning line favorite Ashleyluvssugar through the first half mile of this 1-⅜ turf event. Horses that will be position in behind early pace that will most likely be very slow are Wanstead Gardens, Metaboss, Belisarius, Power Foot, and Patentar. Closers such as Quick Casablanca, Express Himself, Flamboyant, Finnegans Wake, and Texas Ryno will hope the pace falls apart for their late kick.
The two morning line favorites Flamboyant and Ashleyluvssugar exit the Gr. 2 Eddie Read Handicap won by the favored pacesetter Midnight Storm. However that race visually was not impressive as the first seven horses were separated by only 4-¼ lengths and combined those two rivals are 7-0-2-1 over the Jimmy Durante turf course. I will include a huge longshot from the Eddie Read Handicap in my exotic wagers but my top choice goes to a horse that is at home over the Del Mar turf course and distance.
At this time last year, Wanstead Gardens (#3) won at this 1-⅜ distance after a sixth-place finish at 1-⅛ miles four weeks prior. This year the Flower Alley gelding stretches back out to 1-⅜ miles after a victory in Allowance N3X three weeks ago in a race designed as a prep for the Gr. 2 Del Mar Handicap. The chestnut has recorded a stellar 6-3-1-0 record over the Jimmy Durante turf course but one of his better efforts happen in defeat when he finished sixth beaten three-lengths in the Gr. 2 Hollywood Turf Cup on November 26, 2015 during the Bing Crosby season at Del Mar. The trouble comment in your Daily Racing Form states “5wd into stretch, outkicked,” and while that it is true it is the result of his trip. He was forced to break from post position thirteen in a fourteen horse field and was parked three wide into the first turn and continued racing three wide through the second turn. The gelding found himself parked wide on the backstretch as the field began to bunch up after the first mile in 1:43.05 seconds chasing a very fast pace. He was asked for run moving four wide around the far turn, fanned five wide into the lane and got within less than two lengths of the lead at mid-stretch but the wide journey cost him as he lost his punch the final eighth of a mile to lose by three lengths behind the favored winner The Pizza Man with second-place finisher Big John B rallying from last to grab second. Despite this defeat he ran super in defeat when you consider he covered 37ft and 60ft more than the first two finishers according to Trakus losing ground around three turns in this 1-½ mile event at 44-1. He returned five weeks later in the Gr. 2 San Gabriel shortening up to 1-⅛ miles on turf at Santa Anita and he never picked up his feet over a turf course he has never had affinity over (8-1-2-1). He returned from a 210-day layoff on July 30 where he returned over his favorite turf course and scored the 10-1 upset at a distance that was too short for this gelding. In that race he raced off the uncontested pacesetter Lieutenant Colonel stalking in mid-pack early behind a robust early pace. He moved up two-wide around the far turn, angled four wide into the lead, was part of the cavalry charge between rivals past mid-stretch, lead, and held off the late charge of Play Hard to Get to win by a neck. This gelding will now stretch out an additional quarter of a mile to his preferred distance as he is clearly best between distances of 1-¼ and 1-⅜ miles. Moreover, in a race that does not have a plethora of speed and will be run at very slow clip he has shown enough tactical speed to be close tracking the lead as he did in his two previous wins on August 14, 2015 over this course and distance and June 21, 2015 at Santa Anita going 1-¼ miles. Jockey Tyler Baze hops off to ride Quick Casablanca but gets a suitable replacement in Santiago Gonzalez who is second in Del Mar jockey standings and has seven turf victories this meet. I expect this five-year old to only improve in his third start this year and while the two favorites have questions over either the distance and surface this Neil French trainee has no problem with either factor as his split a better field when sixth after a very wide journey in the Gr. 2 Hollywood Turf Cup last fall. A juicy 12-1 on those that believe he can save ground from post position three and emerge victorious over his preferred surface and distance.
In my exotics I will recommend using a big longshot that exits the Gr. 2 Eddie Read Handicap. Patentar (#11) is rounding into form in his third start following 112-day layoff. The Simon Callaghan trainee outran his 32-1 odds when he ran second in the Gr. 2 Whittingham on May 29 where he stalked the slow early pace set by the gate to wire winner Si Sage. He continued saving ground around the final turn, came off the rail into the stretch, and rallied to grab second. This good effort did not impress the wagering public as he was dismissed at odds of 36-1 in the Gr. 2 Eddie Read Handicap where he ran sixth beaten 2-½ lengths but he ran better than the “Chased 3wd outkicked” comment in your Daily Racing Form. He was forced to break from post position eight in a nine horse field and was parked two wide trailing the dueling leaders Midnight Storm and Bolo early and was three wide down the backstretch. The bay horse stayed three wide through the turn, split rivals, made up nice rally through the final furlong covering his final eighth in 11.28 seconds. The Teofilo horse endured a very wide journey covering 42ft, 27ft, and 22ft more than the first three finishers which makes his margin of defeat better than it appears on paper and enters this race sharp with a B work on August 13 that Andy Harrington stated “Very solid drill from this one working in blinkers for Callaghan in 13.3, 25.2, 100.2 (35.0 L3f). Acid test.” He makes a rider switch to excellent turf rider Drayden Van Dyke who has five turf wins from seven wins this Del Mar and the stretch out to 1-⅜ miles will allow him to show his tactical speed. TimeformUS pace projector sees him tracking the expected pacesetter El Huerfano and expected pace presser Ashleyluvssugar in the first flight behind this duo early. He will appreciate the stretch out to this distance and should be giant price at his 20-1 morning line. Metaboss (#4) is the new face as he makes his first start in a Graded Stakes on turf and earned a career best 100 Beyer Speed Figure in his Allowance N2X victory on July 23 here at Del Mar where he took advantage of a race shape that flattered horses running from off the pace. The Street Boss colt was elected to sit in last early behind spirited speed duel between Batti Man and post time favorite Calculator as those two battled through quick fractions of 22.49 and 46.10 seconds. He remained in last approaching the quarter pole, came out six wide into the stretch, and delivered a strong late kick to overhaul rivals to win by 1-½ lengths covering his final quarter of a mile in 23.29 seconds. Although he was in last last time out, TimeformUS pace projector sees him in the same position as our top two choices Wanstead Gardens and Patentar sitting in that second flight behind the expected pacesetter El Huerfano and pace presser Ashleyluvssugar. Trainer Phil D’Amato has won the last two editions of the Del Mar Handicap with Big John B and could be dismissed with all attention centered around Flamboyant and Ashleyluvssugar and enters this race with a crisp B+ move on August 14 that Andy Harrington stated “Breezed clear during a busy time from barnmate Nodiac in 100.4 with Bejarano up. Streaker looks terrific right back.” Ashleyluvssugar (#8) will be the horse that will get first run on the longshot pacesetter El Huerfano into the final turn and should be set for his best performance in his third race following a 294-day layoff.
The Play: As with the Del Mar Oaks in the 6th race, I am going to focus my plays on this race strictly around horses that will be forwardly placed to longshot pacesetter El Huerfano who most likely will lead them as far as he can go. The wide journey versus The Pizza Man and Big John B in last November’s Hollywood Turf Cup over this same course at 1-½ miles make Wanstead Gardens the choice especially now he is drawn in post position three versus post thirteen in that aforementioned race. I will make two separate win bets on both Wanstead Gardens at 12-1 on the morning line and Patentar at 20-1. The goal is centered around Wanstead Gardens finishing in the top two over his favorite turf course, distance, and his tactical speed to get good trip saving ground.
WIN bet on (3) WANSTEAD GARDENS at 8-1 or better
WIN bet on (11) PATENTAR at 15-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 3-4, 3-8, 3-11. Small reverse for each.
Pick 3: 3, 4, 11 / 1, 2, 8 / 4, 8 = 3 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $36
Race 9: Gr. 1 Pacific Classic, 1-¼ Miles, Three-year olds and upward
TimeformUS pace projector sees this year’s Pacific Classic not favoring a specific running style as Dortmund will shoot from the outside post to go straight for the early lead and as he was in the San Diego Handicap will be tracked or pressed by California Chrome going into the first turn. The mare Beholder will take her customary spot in third with Dalmore tracking the top three in fourth early. In midpack look for Win the Space, Hard Aces, and Imperative hoping the pace can be fast enough to set up their late kick as War Story and Hoppertunity will be charging from the rear of the field.
I have waited one year and the right field to take a stand against the brilliant race mare Beholder. She earned her spot in the starting gate of this year’s Pacific Classic off her brilliant victory in last year’s edition but when you examine the race dynamics of that victory she encountered an absolute perfect trip. The Henny Hughes filly stalked in a garden spot in third five and four lengths respectively behind the dueling leaders Midnight Storm and Bayern as those two battled insane fractions of 45.45 seconds for a half mile and 1:09.98 seconds for six furlongs earning Moss Pace Figures that were +15 and +3 above average for that class level. The “move” that everyone was amazed by happen at the same moment that both leaders were exhausted and Beholder inherited the lead to open up a three-length lead into the stretch and won ridden out earning a field’s best 114 Beyer Speed Figure. Midnight Storm and Bayern were so exhausted from this duel they tired to finish tenth and ninth respectively. In this year’s Pacific Classic she will not find two leaders that will go at a breakneck early pace as projected pacesetter Dortmund and morning line favorite California Chrome are expected to be the leaders after the first quarter of a mile and if you watch the San Diego Handicap you will know that these two will not back up when challenged. The three morning line favorites prefer to be on or near the lead pressing the pace in the clear. I am playing against her finishing in the first three and focusing my wagers in the Pacific Classic around one horse finishing in the money to inflate our exotic wagers and possibly win this race and loves the 1-¼ distance.
He has yet to finish in the money in two starts here at Del Mar and has yet to visit the Winner’s Circle in four starts at today’s 1-¼ distance, but I found legitimate excuses for Hoppertunity (#2) two defeats this year at 1-¼ and if he can get a clear trip and right pace scenario this son of Any Given Saturday cannot only finish in the top three but also win the Pacific Classic at what should be a generous price. The Bob Baffert trainee finished a non-threatening third behind California Chrome in the Gr. 1 Dubai World Cup where he ran excellent third when you consider he was up against a very slow early pace and had to endure a wide trip. The bay five-year old was off slowly and settled towards the rear of the field no more than two wide around the first turn. As the field reached the backstretch he was parked four wide and moved up to inch closer leaving the backstretch. He chased Frosted around the far turn while continuing to cover extra ground while four wide and in the stretch delivered an excellent run to miss second by a neck. According to Trakus the pace in this year’s Dubai World Cup was slow as the leader Mshawish was able to set a measured pace through 48.98 second half mile and six furlongs in 1:12.57 seconds. Moreover, Hoppertunity covered 20ft more than the second place finisher Mubtaahij and only covered 5ft less than the winner California Chrome. The form of this year’s World Cup received a huge upgrade as California Chrome returned to win the Gr. 2 San Diego Handicap with 111 Beyer Speed Figure and fifth-place finisher Frosted came back to win the Gr. 1 Metropolitan Mile and Whitney Handicap with Beyer Speed Figures of 123 and 107 respectively. His connections decided to enter Hoppertunity in the Gr. 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita in his first start since Dubai World Cup effort and when you watch this race it looked like trainer Bob Baffert wanted to give his horse a race. Jockey Mike Smith elected to drop him back to last early as Lieutenant Colonel was pressed on the lead by the favored winner Melatonin as they navigated through slower than average early fractions for the first six furlongs per Moss Pace Figures (-9, -5). He came out for a clear run at mid-stretch and rallied very well to lose second by less than a length versus this slow early pace. He remains at 1-¼ miles while his more fancied stablemate, Dortmund, remains a question mark at today’s distance and Hoppertunity has trained in strong fashion per National Turf’s Andy Harrington here at Del Mar with a pair of B- works including six furlong gate move in 1:13 ⅕ that Andy stated “Grabbed early with barnmate Escapee moving up on that one around the turn, finishing in his usual manner in 25.0, 38.0 out well in 102.1, 114.1 out a full 7f in 126.3. Holds late finish.” He is reunited with Del Mar’s leading rider Flavien Prat who was aboard this horse’s win in the Gr. 2 San Antonio Handicap and his better than looked third in the Dubai World Cup. I envision Hoppertunity taking his customary spot towards the rear of the field and if three big rivals find themselves contesting a too quick early pace as 1996 Pacific Classic then Flavien Prat can pick them up from behind and cause a big upset.
In my exotics I will only use two horses and they are the obvious two horses. California Chrome (#1) who defeated Hoppertunity and subsequent Gr. 1 Metropolitan Mile and Whitney Handicap Frosted. In that race he took his position parked three wide just off the measured early pace set by Mshawish early, had to move earlier than jockey Victor Espinoza wanted as Mubtaahij moved up along the rail on the far turn to challenge for the lead, took command into the stretch, and won going away. He returned from a 119-day freshening in the Gr. 2 San Diego Handicap in a race designed as prep for the Pacific Classic and won a prolonged stretch duel with Dortmund to win by a half-length. The talk about being on the rail is nonsense as he will break cleanly and either go for the lead or allow Dortmund to set the pace, angled out to the two path into the first turn, and get his customary pace pressing trip through expected moderate fractions. Deserving favorite for this multiple Gr. 1 winner at classic distance of 1-¼ miles. Dortmund (#8) the expected pacesetter in this year’s Pacific Classic was able to set a moderate early pace that quicken noticeably through the final half mile of the Gr. 2 San Diego Handicap and lost an exciting stretch battle with California Chrome to lose by half-length conceding five pounds to that rival. He has worked brilliantly out of that race with a pair of A- works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington to suggest he can improve off that effort. The barn’s go to rider Rafael Bejarano takes over in the irons and he was aboard his seven furlong work in 1:24 ⅗ in company with fast sprinter DreFong.
The Play: I am going to play three straight trifectas in this race. The focus in getting California Chrome and Dortmund to run first or second with Hoppertunity finishing in the first three spots of our trifecta. In addition I will bet my top choice to win but even if he does not win we can make a nice score if Hoppertunity runs second or third.
WIN bet on (2) HOPPERTUNITY
$5 Trifecta: 2 with 1, 8 with 1, 8 = $10
$10 Trifecta: 1, 8 with 2 with 1, 8 = $20
$15 Trifecta: 1, 8 with 1, 8 with 2 = $30
Race 10: Allowance N2X, 1-Mile Turf, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race going at a very fast early pace to set up for those coming from just off the pace or rallying from far back. The Irish-bred class dropping La Berma will go straight to the early lead but could be pressed or chased by Tale of Papa Nick and Minister’sadventure. Horses that will be in that first flight behind the early leaders are Corps De Ballet, Castellani, and Flamingo Lane. In mid-pack look for Hillhouse High to settle behind this trip with Doodetta and B Rocket charging for well off the pace hoping for a pace meltdown to materialize.
An anticipated fast early pace plus the success of trainer Victoria Oliver shipping Midwest horses to Del Mar the past five years makes B Rockett (#8) an interesting gamble at 8-1 on the morning line. On paper she appears to overmatched because she is running at a class level over her eligible Allowance N1X, she is winless in ten starts on a firm turf course, and enters this race off a lackluster sixth-place finish in a $100,000 Stakes. Those negatives will only inflate the price on this daughter of After Market whose closing running style will be flattered by an anticipated fast early pace. She ran an encouraging second on May 3 at Churchill Downs where she broke from post position ten in a ten horse and trailed early behind a quick early pace for the first three-quarters of a mile set by 25-1 pacesetter Lough Ness early. In order to avoid traffic trouble on the far turn, she made a six wide run on the far turn and sustained that run all the way to mid-stretch before flattening out inside the final sixteenth of a mile to lose to another opportunistic closer Dynazar by 1-½ lengths. The race only earned 81 Beyer Speed Figure but the subsequent performances of the first and third-place finishers prove this was a strong Allowance N1X. The winner returned to win Allowance N2X with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and third-place finisher Goodyearforroses came back to win Allowance N1X with an 81 Beyer Speed Figure and went on this year to win Classified Allowance and $105,000 Stakes at Woodbine Race Course. The New York bred returned to the same Allowance N1X condition four weeks later and once again found her customary position towards the rear of the field behind the 32-1 longshot pacesetter Folded Wings early. She once again took the wide journey around the far turn and fell a half-length short of breaking through that class condition. She was overmatched at 63-1 in the Indiana General Assembly Stakes at Indiana Grand on July 16. She now drops from a stakes into allowance race a strong move from this barn and ships to Del Mar after a debacle in a turf route and that has been a winning angle from this barn the past five years. She’s Not Here (August 6, 2015, $11.80-1), She’s Not Here (July 16, 2016, $9.20-1), and Honey Lake (August 21, 2015, $7.90-1) all of these winners had finished off the board in their previous start in the Midwest, shipped to Del Mar, and won at juicy prices. Not included in this sample was Personal Diary (July 27, 2014, $2.40-1) who ran second in her first start here at Del Mar after a third in the Gr. 3 Regret in her previous start. This confirmed closer with superb turf rider Drayden Van Dyke in the irons (five turf wins this meet) will get fast pace to set up for her late kick as La Berma will go straight to the early lead but could be pressed or chased by Tale of Papa Nick and Minister’sadventure. She trained briskly over the Keeneland training track in her first start off a 35-day layoff and given these connections success with turf shippers off subpar performances in their previous start, fast pace to set up her late closing kick, and the fact she could be dismissed in the wagering makes B Rockett my longshot BEST BET on the card.
In my exotics I will look for La Berma (#4) to appreciate the drop in class to this Allowance N2X level after being overmatched in all three starts in North America. In her North American debut the Gr. 2 Royal Heroine Stakes she and her pace rival 42-1 longshot Smoove It battled head and head over a less than firm turf course through testing early fractions through the first six furlongs (47.49 and 1:12.28). She dueled that rival into submission (tired to finish 14th beaten 14-¾ lengths), remained in the battle all the way to mid-stretch, and finally gave way in a race where the fast pace set it up perfectly for the first four finishers that rallied from 7th, 14th, 5th, and 6th early. She was ambitiously placed next in the Gr. 1 Just a Game where she popped the gate to set the early pace hounded by the eventual winner Celestine through quick pace for the first half mile. The Lawman filly was challenged and collared by Celestine into the stretch, remained in the battle to mid-stretch, and weaken to finish ninth in “key” race. The second-place finisher Recepta returned to finish second beaten a nose in the Gr. 1 Diana Handicap, fourth-place finisher Lady Lara returned to win the $100,000 De La Rose Stakes, fifth-place finisher Faufiler returned to win the Gr. 3 Modesty at Arlington Park, and tenth-place finisher Lexie Lou returned to win the Gr. 2 Dance Smartly and $125,000 Stakes in her next two starts. She dropped in class on July 24 here at Del Mar where she was out-sprinted for the early lead by the eventual winner Avenge while parked three wide, dropped back, and weaken. She now drops another level to her proper Allowance N2X level and she will take them as far as she can go under Gary Stevens and will not have the likes of Celestine breathing down her neck early. Into the Mystic (#3) might prefer more ground as this Galileo filly three victories were at 1-⅛ miles (twice) and 1-3/16 miles. She is trained by Richard Mandella who has won 3-of-10 with his Foreign shippers making their North American debut in a turf route and two of those three wins were with today’s rider Flavien Prat aboard who was up on that August 4 move in 1:30 ⅗ where she worked in company with subsequent Solana Beach Stakes winner Majestic Heat. Flamingo Lane (#9) was allowed to establish a slow early pressured pace on July 17 in her first start off a 322-day layoff, collared by impressive winner Entrechat into the stretch, and lost second on the wire to subsequent stakes winner Frenzfied. She should move forward in her second race off the layoff and should be better with a fast pace to stalk and pounce under Kent Desormeaux.
The Play: Even though she appears to be overmatched at a class level that is one class level above what she is eligible for, B Rockett is tough to dismiss considering the success of trainer Victoria Oliver here at Del Mar the past five years. She will get a fast pace to set up for her late kick lead by our second preference La Berma.
WIN bet on (8) B ROCKETT at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta Box: 4-8
Smaller Exactas: 4-3, 4-9, 8-3, 8-9. No reverse.
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