Race 5: Allowance N1X, 5 Furlongs Turf, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing for horses on or near the early lead. From the inside to the outside, Hell on Heels will go straight to the early lead prompted by second choice Lamontagne, and Discatsonthesquare sitting just off those dueling leaders in third early. Morning line favorite Big Move and Dream Navigator look to get the first run on the early speed into the far turn with Lemon De Oro and Little Treasure hoping for the early pace to collapse to set up their late kick.
Only four horses in this race have experience over the Jimmy Durante turf course sprinting five furlongs and one of them I have a big trouble note in her previous start over this same turf course and distance and should be a very generous price. Lemon De Oro (#1) last visited the Winner’s Circle back on October 19, 2013 at Keeneland when he was trained by Graham Motion. In the past two years, she has managed to hit the board only once in six starts but she now returns to the Del Mar turf course sprinting five furlongs where she ran a much better than looked third beaten a half-length back on July 31, 2014. In that race where she was ridden by today’s rider Mike Smith, she trailed early as the dueling leaders Mahalo Princess and Serious were allowed to dictate a moderate opening quarter in 22.18 seconds. She was commencing her run leaving the backstretch when Serious and Belle of the Fleet pulled up into the turn forcing Lemon De Oro to be fanned extremely wide on the far turn at least six wide on the turn. She straighten out into stretch and delivered a strong late run to miss by a half length galloping out in front of the field. The daughter of Lemon Drop Kid was compromised by a slow early pace as the winner and runner-up ran 1st and 2nd after a half mile and according to Trakus she covered 35 feet and 28 feet more than the winner and second-place finisher. In two starts this year this bay mare has finished off the board beaten a combined 25-¾ lengths but she showed some run on May 21 behind subsequent Gr. 3 Victory Ride winner Coppa. She was forced to break from post position ten in a twelve horse field stalked in mid-pack early parked five wide down the backstretch, made a brief run leaving the backside to loom within 2-½ lengths of the lead midway on the far turn, dropped back, and was wisely wrapped up through the stretch where she ran 42 feet more than the winner in a race where the first two finishers ran 1st and 2nd early. She returns from 75-day layoff and was a vet scratch on July 4 but since that date she has trained like a mare that is much better than her record record would indicate. She comes into this race with three works over the Del Mar main track including a best of thirteen six furlongs move on July 24 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Continues to train well for the Spawr barn, last 4f in 48 flat while under late wraps. Sure seems better than recent record.” From the rail and with the main speed to her outside she will need a clean ground saving trip rallying from off the pace but at what should be juicy odds I will gamble she will adore the return to the Del Mar turf course sprinting five furlongs.
In my exotics I will use the aptly named Discatsonthesquare (#8) who has a case of being the bridesmaid with eight combined seconds or third from fourteen starts. The California-bred daughter of Square Eddie has hit the board in two of three starts on turf but one of her best efforts on that surface happened on February 21, 2015 down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita where she won the early pace battle but lost the war. She battled head and head for the early lead with the 60-1 long shot Luckyvic early as those two opened up 1-½ length lead on the next closest rival through fractions of 22.35 and 45.06 seconds over a “good” turf course. She fought on gamely through the stretch putting away her long shot pace rival but could not contain the first two finishers who benefited from this pace battle rallying from 10th and 9th after the first quarter of a mile. In her last start on July 4 she was equipped with the blinkers for the first time and sent for the lead like a quarter horse out of the gate to establish insane early fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+12, +9). She had her 7-length lead approaching the quarter pole diminish as she was a tired horse and was wrapped up through the stretch finishing last. She returns to turf and removes the blinkers which were not on in her half mile spin in 49 seconds flat on July 30 that Andy Harrington stated “appeared relaxed in this 1/2 mile spin going on her own courage.” Jockey Gary Stevens and she will sit a perfect trip tucked in third behind two dueling leaders Hell on Heels and Lamontagne and get first run ahead of the closers. Hell on Heels (#3) drawn inside of her main pace rival Lamontagne and will take them as far as she can go under Joe Talamo. She had no excuse on February 14 where she was allowed to dictate a slower than average early pace for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-18, -8), challenged at mid-stretch, and offered little challenge to the wire while switching to her incorrect left lead. Last time she was parked three wide in a three-horse speed battle through faster than average early fractions for the first half mile (+13, +6) and tired badly to finish fifth in a race that collapsed for the opportunistic closers. She returns to the Phil D’Amato barn with a solid work tab capped by a stellar five furlong work from the gate on July 24 that Andy Harrington gave B commenting “tracked Mrs Guty (McCarthy) by the stands, moving up on the turn finishing with late pop in this set from the gate in 23.2, 34.4, 47.0, 59.3 out well in 113.1. Nice kick.” Catch her to win.
The Play:
WIN bet on (1) LEMON DE’ ORO
Main Exacta box key: 1 / 3, 8.
No comments:
Post a Comment