Race 3: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $20,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Three and up
TimeformUS pace projector has identified Signature Cat as the pacesetter in this field and should have a comfortable lead early but will be pressed or chased by Family Code and probable morning line favorite Never Say Try. Look for Prohibition Rebel, Pulla Train, and Eight Spokes to be sitting in mid-pack and pounce if the early pace does collapse one of those three will take advantage of it. Eddie’s Turn returning off a 648-day layoff is the field’s only closer in this race.
Signature Cat enters this field with not only the field’s top last race TimeformUS early pace rating in the field but also owns the top last race 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field. The horse returning from the longest layoff, Eddie’s Turn, owns the field’s best last race TimeformUS late pace rating.
I do respect the morning line favorite Never Say Try (#6) and will use him in my exacta wagers but I do question the overall quality of the maiden field he defeated by 11-¼ lengths on July 31 over this same distance and surface. He enjoyed a perfect pace prompting trip parked four wide in a four horse duel early through moderate fractions, took over with a three wide sweeping move on the turn, angled over to the rail when well clear into the lane, and won ridden out to the wire. He won this race with the aid of a main track that strongly favored horses with speed racing along the outside paths and his final 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure is lower than our top choice and second favorite Eight Spokes and will take a significant move up in class as that maiden field only earned TimeformUS Race Rating of 92. He comes into this race razor sharp five furlong move on August 20 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B. I will use him but I look for another horse to spring the upset.
Family Code (#1) must navigate breaking from the rail but if this race plays out how TimeformUS pace projector says it will then Family Code will enjoy a perfect trip tucked in behind the expected leader’s Signature Cat and Never Say Try and pounce. The Desert Code gelding won his previous start at this 6-½ furlong distance back on May 29 and stepped up to face California-bred Allowance N1X on June 25 and was second best behind the favored gate to wire winner Taman Guard running a winning race in defeat. He broke on top and settled comfortably in fourth behind a three-horse speed duel early, moved up four wide to challenge for the lead turning into the stretch, put in his bid, and was turned away by Taman Guard to lose by 2-¾ lengths but Family Code finished 6-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field earning a career best 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. His connections were so pleased by this effort they placed him next versus three-year olds in the Real Deal Good Stakes on July 27 here at Del Mar and he finished last in a field of ten beaten 18-¼ lengths. However this Roberto Diodoro trainee was the victim of really fast pace he chased (designated by red TimeformUS pace figures) that affected every horse running on or near the early lead. In that race he found a comfortable spot in fifth tracking that fast pace four-horse speed duel through the first half mile. He was asked to keep up midway on the far turn and had no response and was wisely wrapped up to the wire in a race where the fast early fractions resulted in pace meltdown where the first three finishers rallied from 6th, 10th, and 7th after the first quarter of a mile. According to the TimeformUS race ratings, Family Code will take significant drop in class from three-year old stakes event that earned 112 Race Rating to this California-bred Allowance N1X with a 103 Race Rating. The rail draw might steer many away from him but he should fall into a perfect trip in third tracking Signature Cat and Never Say Try and wait to pounce on those two rivals into the stretch. He turns back to his preferred distance where he has recorded a successful 3-2-0-1 record and should be a generous price off his last place finish. A repeat of his second place finish on June 25 at Santa Anita will win this race.
In my exotics, next to Never Say Trust I will also use Eight Spokes (#5) who has managed to finish second in his last two at this same class level. The Good Journey gelding showed speed between rivals on June 30 where they navigated through a slow early pace (designated by blue TimeformUS pace figures). After putting away the favored Atta Boy Pete, he lost a prolonged stretch battle with Pulmarack but he finished 8-¾ lengths in front of the rest of the field earning competitive 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He made his first start over Del Mar surface August 4 and ran a non threatening second to the class dropping gate to wire winner Spirit Rules earning an identical TimeformUS Speed Figure as his last start. He will be position in behind our top choice and the leader’s Signature Cat and Never Say Try in mid-pack and will be plugging along through the stretch to grab a piece.
The Play: We will probably get all of his 6-1 morning line and I look to maximize my wagering dollar in this race by looking at the Win and Exacta pools emphasizing on our top choice, Family Code, winning this race.
$16 WIN on (1) FAMILY CODE
$8 Exacta: 1-6
$6 Exacta: 6-1
$6 Exacta: 1-5
$4 Exacta: 5-1
Total Wager: $40
Race 8: Claiming $25,000 to $22,500, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares
This competitive nitecap changed the complexion of the pace scenario by the scratches of Kyankes and Easter Fever as both horses projected to battle for the early lead. predicted to have a fast early pace per TimeformUS pace projector. With those two out, TimeformUS pace projector predicts that this race will be run at an early pace will favor horses on or near the early lead. The three horses that will be challenging for the early lead are Hennythelovepenny, Desert Thief, and Miss Bliss. In mid-pack are Comealongwithme, Audra, Revenue Virginius, and Avicii. Those that will hope that the fast pace materializes for their late closing kick are Sidepocket Run, Mia’s Storm, and Tim’s Go Girl.
Hennythelovespenny owns the field’s highest last race TimeformUS early pace rating and will be joined for the early lead by her uncoupled stablemate Desert Thief early. Sidepocket Run will be charging off the pace with the field’s best top last race TimeformUS late pace rating in the field and also the field’s top last race 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
The last leg of the Pick 6 will bookend my individual plays for the Wednesday card and this race is excellent gambling race especially since I’m looking to beat morning line favorite Revenue Virginius who appears to be tailing off based on her last two starts. She finished third beaten 1-¾ lengths on July 4 for optional claiming price of $40,000 but that margin of defeat is not as good as it appears on paper as she raced off a blistering fast early pace (red designated TimeformUS pace figures), moved up along the rail, angled out into the stretch with dead aim at the lead but was outkicked to the wire by another opportunistic closer My Fiona where she was out finished by Mysterious Miracle who raced close to that very fast early pace. She dropped in class again for $32,000 claiming price on July 28 wearing front wraps for the first time and had no excuse tracking a very tepid early pace (blue designated TimeformUS pace figures) won by pace pressing winner Bad Ju Ju, dropped back without little excuse around the turn, and was wrapped up through the lane. She was claimed for $32,000 and now drops to $25,000 in her first start off the Peter Miller claim, a negative sign. She has lost at odds of 2-5, 3-1, and last time at 6-5. I look to beat her in a race that sets up for a horse at a nice price.
Miss Bliss (#11) comes into this race off a healthy pattern in her first start off the claim for top trainer Mark Glatt who is enjoying stellar Del Mar meet. She was claimed from a $16,000 N3L on the penultimate day of the Santa Anita spring-summer meet and makes her first start off a 46 day layoff in a open $25,000 claiming event a positive sign that Miss Bliss is doing well. The Northern Afleet filly has recorded a win and two seconds in her last three starts on a fast main track and after disputing for the early lead or setting the pace in her two career victories, she showed the ability to rate when she finished a well beaten second on May 26 to opportunistic closer Margie’s Minute. In that race, she raced off the dueling leaders Yana and Hennythelovepenny as those two blazing through a very fast early pace (red designated TimeformUS pace figures). She moved up along the rail on the far turn, angled out three wide into the stretch with dead aim on the tired leaders, lead, and was collared by the closer Margie’s Minute to be a distant second. She dropped in class to $16,000 N3L on July 9 and traveled in comfortable spot in third early behind moderate early pace behind the pacesetter L.A Magic, rallied three wide into the stretch with dead aim on the tired leaders, put in her bid, but was blown away by the closer Fruity to lose by a length. The form of that race was validated when the winner returned to an open $25,000 claiming event on August 7 with an improved 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Miss Bliss has early speed to lead or dispute the early pace but she will be in perfect spot early tracking in the clear Hennythelovepenny and Desert Third in third and will pounce on the leaders when jockey Martin Pedroza asked her for her best. She will make her first start off the claim for Mark Glatt which is a productive angle earning 100 trainer rating with that move and is more deadly with sprinters on the main track making their first start off the claim. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Mark Glatt is 12-6-1-1 in the past year with his starters making their first start off the claim in a dirt sprint for a gaudy 50% rate. Jockey Martin Pedroza rides and he was aboard her half mile spin in 48 ⅖ on August 20 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating she was “Sharp drill in the 3 path with Pedroza aboard in 23.3, 48.3. Strong right back.”
In my exotics, I look to go price shopping to create a big score in my suggested exacta wagers. I anticipate that horses on or near the early lead will have the advantage and our second preference fits that profile perfectly. Desert Thief (#10) will drop to a new career low claiming price of $25,000 after finishing off the board in her last two starts on the main track sprinting at Santa Anita. She managed to split the field in Allowance N1X on May 21 where she made a menacing move to challenge the gate to wire and subsequent Gr. 3 Victory Ride winner Coppa and could not sustain that run flattening out to finish fifth. She did not any excuse on June 17 where she vied for the early lead through moderate fractions for five furlongs and was not good enough in a stronger race than it appears on paper as six horses behind the winner Pica returned to earn improve TimeformUS Speed Figures in their next start. She showed early speed to duel head and head with her pace rival Whisk last time out and tired to finish fourth but that race was on turf. She prefers a fast main track sprinting and hustling rider Agapito Delgadillo remains in the irons. Tim’s Go Girl (#7) has run respectable on the turf with four in the money efforts from as many starters but this mare is much better on a fast main track with a 8-3-2-1 record. She won her previous two starts versus non-stakes company on the main track by five-lengths and she will enjoy a brisk pace to set up her late kick under the meets leading jockey Flavien Prat. Main knock on Tim’s Go Girl is she will make her first start off the claim for Alfredo Marquez who has a 0 trainer rating with his starters off the claim and according to DRF Formulator he is 10-0-2-1 the past five years with his starters off the claim in a dirt sprint. Sidepocket Run (#2) will turn back from one-mile win versus California-bred Allowance N1X on June 16 into this sprint where she will get a fast pace to set up her closing kick. The second choice on the morning line is shy of visiting the Winner’s Circle with 11 seconds of thirds from 30 starts and according to DRF Formulator trainer Phil D’Amato is 25-2-4-4 for a paltry 8% win rate with his starters turning back from route to sprint at Del Mar and those two winners were sent off as heavy post time favorites: I’ll Play My Hand (November 5, 2015, $0.90-1) and Enola Gray (July 22, 2016, $0.10-1).
The Play: Miss Bliss is my best longshot bet on the card and I believe she will be in the perfect spot early tracking Hennythelovepenny and Desert Thief early before she makes her bid for the lead into the stretch.
$16 WIN bet on (11) MISS BLISS
$5 Exacta: 11 w/ 2, 7, 10 = $15
$3 Exacta: 2, 7, 10 w/ 11 = $9
Total Wager: $40
Del Mar Race 5 Pick 4: My strongest opinions in this Pick 4 sequence belong to Soi Phet in Race 5 and Miss Bliss in Race 8.
1st Ticket: 5 w/ 2, 4 w/ 1, 6, 7 w/ 2, 7, 10, 11 = $12
2nd Ticket: 1, 5 w/ 2, 4 w/ 1, 6, 7 w/ 11 = $6
Total Wager: $18
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