Race 6: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles, Three year olds and up
The TimeformUS pace projector and my personal review of this race sees this 1-1/16 miles favoring horses on or near the early lead. The logical pacesetter will be the seven-year old Got Even who will go straight to the front and should have an uncontested lead going into the backstretch. Those that will be chasing this Stephen Got Even gelding in the first flight are Ultimate Luck, Tribal Jewel, and Silver Spirit. Foxtrot Romeo and Saint Dermot will drop to mid-pack and Go Long will hope a fast pace materializes for his late kick.
The play against in this race is the morning line favorite and the horse with the highest last race dirt 91 Beyer Speed Figure Saint Dermot. The Ghostzapper gelding has a record of one win, two second-place finishers, and one third from his last four starts and defeated in that one victory our second preference Tribal Jewel. In their only encounter on July 4 at Santa Anita, Saint Dermot was the recipient of getting ten pounds from the 4-5 favorite Tribal Jewel. Today only three pounds separate them and while Tribal Jewel will enjoy the return to Del Mar with a record of 5-2-0-1 the same cannot be said for Saint Dermot who is 2-0-0-0.
He was my top choice on opening day and he almost equal his best Beyer Speed Figure from 2015 and finds a much easier pace scenario than his last two starts, Got Even (#5) is the selection to take this field gate to wire. The Stephen Got Even gelding does have a knack of beings the bridesmaid with twenty second or third-place finishers from forty-seven starts but has caught some wicked really quick rivals that have out-sprinted him for the early lead in his last two starts and today’s pace scenario being that quick horse that will set the early pace. He made his first start off the claim for trainer Bill Spawr on May 6 off a one-hundred and five day layoff and he was out-sprinted for the early lead by the quick St. Joe Bay who set fast fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+4, +6). He was out-run around the far turn by the pacesetter and continued chasing that rival all the way to mid-stretch before giving away to finish fifth beaten 4-¾ lengths in a race where the fast fractions set it up perfectly for the opportunistic closer Big Tire to pull the 10-1 upset. His connections freshened this dark bay or brown gelding for Del Mar where he shown an affinity for the seaside oval even though he has yet to visit the Winner’s Circle in thirteen starts but has finished second or third in eight of them. He returned from a seventy-day hiatus on opening day where he went off at generous 10-1 and he won the early battle for the early lead but lost the war behind the opportunistic stalker Chief of Staff. He was immediately asked out of the gate to show early speed but was out-sprinted for the lead by 30-1 longshot Mad Bum and jockey Edwin Maldonado was forced to rate off that longshot leader as those two opened up a six-length lead on the next closest rival as the leader set a very fast early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+9, +7). He made his move into the teeth of that pace to grab the lead approaching the quarter pole but was immediately challenged by the opportunistic stalking winner, tried to stay on gamely to mid-stretch, and only lost second by the closing rally of Warden of the West who benefited from this fast pace to rally from last to get second. The Bill Spawr trainee earned a 89 Beyer Speed Figure which is the second highest last race dirt speed figure in this field and he earned this figure pressing an above average early pace, putting away his longshot pace rival who weaken to last beaten 17-¾ lengths, and only lost second to a closer. He is once again not risked for the optional claiming price of $40,000 a positive sign and he came on July 31 with a B workout that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Continues to train with good life in 24.1, 48.0 out well in 101.0, Hard knocking 7 year old is going well.” There are no St. Joe Bay or crazy longshots such as Mad Bum to interfere with Got Even making the early lead in this 1-1/16 contest and with regular rider Edwin Maldonado in the irons he should make the early lead and prove a very tough rival to run down at a hint of a price.
In our exotics I will use two other horses but the main contender in our exacta box will be our second preference Tribal Jewel (#4). The Tribal Rule gelding returns to Del Mar where he has winning habit at the seaside oval with two victories from five starts. The Richard Baltas trainee has finished first or second in two of his last three starts. In his lone victory this year on May 19 he found himself pressing a moderate early pace outside of his his two speed rivals, took on the pacesetter Conquest Cobra at the quarter pole, and proved a game winner to win by a head in a race that was flattered as the runner-up returned to win two and three starts later with Beyer Speed Figures of 99 and 103 respectively. He was overmatched versus a “key” race field on June 10 where the early pace was slow that the first three finishers ran 2nd, 1st, and 3rd around the race track in a inconclusive performance. Last time out he set a very moderate pace under pressure early and was collared by Saint Dermot who rallied from last to win by 2-¼ lengths. The difference between two rivals is Tribal Jewel and his aforementioned rival is weight as they are only separated by three pounds today. Jockey Rafael Bejarano will position Tribal Jewel to be the first to attack the leader around the far turn and he comes into this race with a B workout that Andy Harrington commented “Sharp right back going 35.2, 59.1 moving in his usual efficient manner for Baltas. Holding edge.” Ultimate Luck (#1) is my longshot that at 8-1 on the morning line that I will use underneath. He is not keen on visiting the Winner’s Circle with twelve seconds or thirds from twenty-one starts but this Lucky J.H. gelding ran a lot better than his 3wd, btwn ¼, willingly comment in your Daily Racing Form. He lost by three-quarters of a lengths but had to navigate a three to four wide trip the entire journey and covered 54 feet more per Trakus than the rail rally winner Ain’t Misbehavin as that rival went on to win California-bred Allowance N1X with a 83 Beyer Speed Figure. He is beautifully drawn on the rail today with Alonso Quinonez remaining in the irons and projects for a ground saving stalk and pounce trip.
The Play: The gamble in this race is pace. I am looking for Got Even and Tribal Jewel to run one-two around the racetrack early and that is the way it can end at the finish line as I also see this race play out on paper as TimeformUS pace projector. I believe the pace will not setup well for stalkers and closers and you will need to be forwardly placed.
WIN bet on (5) GOT EVEN
Main Exacta Box: 4,5
Small Exactas: 4-1, 5-1. No reverse.
$15 Daily Double: 4-1 = $15
$15 Daily Double: 5-1 = $15
Total Wager: $30
Race 7: Osunitas Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares
The lack of a confirmed front runner in today’s feature race means TimeformUS pace projector suggest this race will develop for horses running on or near the early lead. Juno returning to the turf and stretching out off a better than looked dirt sprint on June 26 will most likely be your pacesetter. In the first flight chasing that expected pacesetter are Prize Exhibit, Havana Belle, and Entrechat early. In mid-pack will be My Year is a Day and those charging from the rear of the field are Moon Over Paris and morning line favorite Elektrum.
The play in this race is against the morning line favorite Elektrum. She exits the best race, Gr. 1 Gamely Handicap, but based on today’s distance and probable pace scenario this John Sadler trainee will be up against it. She has yet to test today’s 1-1/16 distance but at distance shorter than 1-⅛ miles she is 4-0-2-0. In addition, TimeformUS pace projector suggests that today’s race shape will favor horses on or near the early lead and last time out in the Gamely Handicap she found herself rallying from last in the field of eight to be third behind a slow early pace won by the presser Illuminant. Despite the back to back B+ workouts per National Turf Andy Harrington this restricted stakes is only a stepping stone race for her connections to get this Irish bred filly to the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.
When I reviewed the past performances of the fifth race on June 26 at Santa Anita I made a note on Juno (#1). The note for this Brazilian bred read “Chesnut filly is undefeated in five starts on turf at distances from seven furlongs to one-mile and is strictly using the six furlong Desert Stormer as a prep for a stakes going long on turf at Del Mar.” In her native Brazil she is a dual Group 1 winner winning the Immensity by a head over an eleven-horse field on a soft turf course at one-mile and came back to win the Group 1 Barao de Piracicba also at one-mile on a heavy turf course which is the equivalent to their One Thousand Guineas. She was privately purchased by Team Valor following her dual Group 1 victories and transferred to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella this year. The Setembro Clove filly had trained in respectable fashion for her North American debut per Andy Harrington and she was entered in the June 26 Desert Stormer Stakes strictly as a prep for a stakes going long at Del Mar and she ran extremely well in her first defeat when you consider the track profile on that afternoon was against rivals horses trying to make up ground. She showed nice early speed to track the uncontested leader Shh She’s Ours as that rival sped to the early lead establishing quick fractions on a very glib surface per Moss Pace Figures (+1, -1). She dropped back to last on the far turn angling over to the rail and rallied to get third but beaten 5-½ lengths in a respectable North American debut. What makes this performance better than the margin of defeat is she attempted to rally from just off the pace over a main track that strongly favored inside-speed that the winner Shh She’s Ours rode to victory. The Desert Stormer earned an excellent 101 Beyer Speed Figure and the validity of that figure was confirmed by the subsequent performances of the also rans in the field. The fourth-place finisher Luminance came back to win Allowance N2X with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure and the fifth-place finisher Avenge came back to win Allowance N3X with a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. Those speed figures are ten and thirteen point improvement from their Desert Stormer performance. She is beautifully drawn on the rail with Del Mar’s leading rider Flavien Prat in the irons and she has worked beautifully for the stretch out to 1-1/16 miles with a B work on July 27 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington that he commented “Tracked and drew off from an overmatched barnmate going the last 6f in 24.3, 113.0. Pretty filly is moving forward down here.” In a race that is devoid of a confirmed pacesetter Juno projects to be loose on an uncontested early lead per TimeformUS pace projector and she should take them gate to wire as BEST BET on the card.
In my exotics I will look to beat the morning line favorite Elektrum by using only two horses. Prize Exhibit (#5) exits a series of Graded Stakes including splitting the field in the Gr. 1 Just a Game on June 11 at Belmont Park. She was my top choice in the Gr. 2 Yellow Ribbon on July 16 and she received a terrible ride by jockey Santiago Gonzalez. This filly is very difficult to ride and she never settled as she was running up on horses heels into the backstretch before jockey Santiago Gonzalez eased her out three wide leaving the half mile pole and she unleashed a premature three wide move to duel with two leaders Her Emmynency and Keri Belle on the far turn and by the time she reached the top of the stretch she was a tired filly who weaken to seventh. She will need to settle better as Mike Smith who rode this filly to one of her three wins in 2015 returns in the irons. Havana Belle (#7) chased a very fast early pace on May 5 while wide from start to finish and finished fourth in a race where the first two finishers rallied from 7th and 14th early. The Phil D’Amato trainee will enjoy having a target to run at plus the slower early fractions.
The Play: I look for the closers such as My Year is a Day, Elektrum, and Moon Over Paris to struggle over a turf course with the rails up at 18 feet favor horses that are forwardly placed and in this race that is important considering there is a lack of early speed. My top choice Juno fits the profile perfectly and I will focus my attention around this beautiful chestnut filly.
WIN bet on (1) JUNO
Main Exactas: 1-5, 1-7. Small reverse.
No comments:
Post a Comment