Race 5: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile Turf, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a very slow early pace favoring horses on or near the early lead. The horses that will favor this race shape are Scattagirl, Sutton’s Smile, and Zip N Bayou. Horses that will behind this slow early pace in the second flight are My Sweet Afleet, Savannah Sky, and Dynamic Mizzes K. The rivals that can be hindered by a slow early pace that will be lagging far back early are La Boheme, morning line favorite Arethusa, and Stylish in Black.
My play in this race is against morning line favorite Arethusa. She had an absolute perfect journey when she ran second behind the favored winner Grandma’s Hands on opening day. She was beautifully covered next to last behind a contested speed duel between Cover Song and Moon Over Paris, continued saving ground around the second turn as she moved up into the stretch, split rivals, and delivered good rally between rivals to get second. The 80 Beyer Speed Figure she earned gives her no advantage over this field as others in this field have run equal or faster. Her late running style could be hampered by a race shape that favors horses on or near the early lead per TimeformUS pace projector. In addition the form of that race was not flattered when the third-place finisher returned to finish fifth beaten 3-¾ lengths here on August 4 behind Mo Knows.
A trip note horse from last fall’s Bing Crosby meet here at Del Mar reappears in the opening leg of the Saturday Pick 6 and that horse is Sutton’s Smile (#2). This gray or roan filly by Paddy O’ Prado loves the Del Mar turf course even though she has never won over this surface with a record 2-0-1-1. The race that I want to point out is her third-place finish in last year’s Gr. 3 Jimmy Durante where she was beaten 2-¼ lengths behind opportunistic closer Family Meeting and she lost more ground than the margin of defeat would indicate according to Trakus. In that race she sat in the two-path alongside Mokat through the first half mile of the race. She was maneuvered three wide leaving the backstretch and around the far turn as she moved up to reach contention four wide into the stretch, and flattened out as the second-place finisher rallied up along the rail to get second. According to Trakus she traveled 5ft and 36ft more than the first two finishers respectively making her effort look much better than the 3wd 2nd turn, up 3rd comment in Daily Racing Form. She made her next turf start on March 12 in the China Doll Stakes where she was returning from a ninety-one day layoff where she was very keen early pulling jockey Rafael Bejarano early along the rail chasing a very fast early pace set by the favored Pacific Heat early, continued chasing the favored leader all the way to the top of the stretch where she angled off the rail, and was out finished to the wire losing by only 1-½ lengths in a race that developed at fast early pace to set up for the horses coming from off the pace as the first three finishers rallied from 7th, 5th, and 6th after the first half mile. The form of the China Doll Stakes was flattered when the fourth-and-fifth place finishers returned to win. She dropped in class to face Allowance N1X rivals versus three-year olds only on May 20 and she ran an excellent second behind the 1-2 favored winner Lady Valeur. She was able to get over from post position seven into the two-path on the first turn racing between rivals behind the uncontested leader Not Now Carolyn who establish a very fast early pace thru the first half mile (22.43 and 46.23). The gray filly split rivals on the far turn, angled three wide with a clear run at the favored winner into the stretch, and was second best finishing 4-¼ lengths ahead of the rest of the field earning 82 Beyer Speed Figure which equals the par for this class level (Beyer par 83). She was on the wrong surface (dirt) behind the brilliant undefeated champion Songbird in the Gr. 2 Summertime Oaks. She returns to her preferred Del Mar turf course and is reunited with Joe Talamo who has ridden her perfectly to two second-place finishers from two starts and was aboard for her five furlong 1:02 ⅗ move on July 31 that Andy Harrington gave a B- stating she “relaxed solo spin with Talamo aboard going 37.4, 102.3. Moving well off the break.” Without the presence of a crazy speed rival such as Not Now Carolyn or Pacific Heat in this field, she should be in a perfect spot on the rail close to a slower early pace in a race that projects to favor horses on or near the early lead. She should not worry about losing ground from post position two and appears ready to break through with her second turf victory as the BEST BET on the card.
In my exotics I will focus on horses that will forwardly placed close to anticipated slow early pace. Zip N Bayou (#7) found herself further off the pace than she is used too on June 11 because the pacesetter Rockport Babe tore off to set a uncontested early lead thru quick early fractions for the first half mile (22.74 and 47.30). She was angled three wide for a clear run into the far turn but was badly impeded around the far turn forcing her wider while dropping back to second to last, rallied seven to eight wide into the stretch, and rallied for second. Despite losing by 2-¼ lengths she covered 34ft, 54ft, and 47ft more than the winner, third, and fourth-place finishers according to Trakus. The slower early pace in this race will favor her style as she has more tactical speed. Scattagirl (#1) turns back from 1-⅜ on July 28 where she weaken to fifth to one mile where she is 2-1-0 in her last three starts at the one-mile distance on turf. Jockey Kent Desormeaux remains in the irons and she should enjoy a smooth ground saving stalk and pounce trip. Dynamic Mizzes K (#9) was too close to a rapid early pace set by uncontested leader Nine Point Nine on July 17 and tired badly to finish ninth in the Sandy Blue Handicap. I expect jockey Gary Stevens to position his mount close to the early pace which will not be as fast as last time and trainer Mark Glatt continues on his red hot streak this meet.
The Play: My focus on this race is strictly around Sutton’s Smile who figures to enjoy a perfect trip close to an slow early pace and get the first jump on the closers in this race.
WIN bet on (2) SUTTON’S SMILE
Main Exactas: 2-1, 2-7, 2-9. Small reverse for each.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor horses on or near the lead or coming from off the early pace. Dashin Ashen from the rail will straight for the early lead but will be pursued or chased by Tandora with first time blinkers and Vivacious Beauty. Those three rivals will be chased by Pragmatical and morning line favorite Tryst in the second flight. Breathe will not find the same early fractions she pressed on July 17 and will be outrun early.
I made this race one of my four prime plays on today’s card because I have a note on Formulator to always play against today’s morning line favorite Tryst. She has lost at odds of 2-5, 3-10, and 4-5 and has not looked visually impressive in her last two starts despite finishing 5-¼ and 4-½ lengths ahead of the rest of the field. On May 15 she chased home the gate to wire winner Rockport Babe to the wire while switching and raising her tale through the stretch and switching to her incorrect left lead to the wire. In her next start on June 17 she acted better through the stretch chasing the gate to wire winner Seaside Glory to the wire but she enjoyed a perfect trip chasing the dueling leaders in third and making no significant impact to the wire. The second choice on the morning line Lady Pamela is also a bet against because her trainer, Clifford Sise Jr., is 16-1-1-4 with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint the past five years per DRF Formulator. She is by Tapit out of Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner Life is Sweet and is bred for more distance as National Turf’s Andy Harrington has gave her a pair of B works but with the comment of “Has a steady kick,” and “Should be running on,” in her last two works over the Del Mar surface.
After reviewing National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s workout reports and studying her pedigree, I placed Tandora (#3) on my Horses to Watch after she failed to defeat one horse to the wire in her career debut back on June 17 behind Tryst. She went off as the clear 5-1 third choice in her first start based on her excellent reviews from National Turf’s Andy Harrington, a superb pedigree to win sprinting, and trainer Phil D’Amato record with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint. She is by the excellent sire Candy Ride out of the dam Tanda. She won of five of fourteen starts including the Gr. 3 Santa Paula Stakes, Railbird Stakes, and Rancho Bernardo Stakes in addition she is Gr. 1 placed and Tandora is her first foal. Trainer Phil D’Amato has won at excellent 25% (12-for-48) the past five years with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and entered her first start with a pair of B works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington. All the reasons explained why this bay filly was sent off as the third choice at 5-1 and she failed to run to her workouts as she finished last behind gate to wire Seaside Glory. She did not break in great order leaving the gate, trailed behind the contested speed duel between Seaside Glory and Brainspin, and was not wisely wrapped up through the stretch finishing twenty-lengths behind the winner. However she deserves another chance when you consider she had worked very well into her debut and now out of her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato who does well with second time starters. She enters this with a pair of B workouts on July 18 and July 25 per Andy Harrington including a crisp five furlong move on July 25 where she worked in company with my Race 8 top choice Excavation with the comment “Willing drill with Excavation coming back with grit,. Last 4f in 47.2. Certainly better than last.” Trainer Phil D’Amato is 20-4-6-0 (20%) with second time starters in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and gets blinkers on for the first time. Jockey Martin Garcia rides her for the first time and I am going to give her another chance especially now that she is a generous 20-1 on the morning line.
In my exotics I will use two horses to beat the two morning line favorites from finishing first or second. Breathe (#4) did not have any visible excuse when she ran third beaten 3-¾ lengths but my theory in her July 17 race was she was given a clear schooling race as her stablemate Brainspin won that race. She was bet down to the role of favorite and found herself in a comfortable spot pressing the pace three wide through very slow fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-9, -12) and offered very little through the stretch to be a clear third behind her stablemate winner. She has trained well for her first start and exit that debut effort with B work on August 1 that Andy Harrington commented “Easy pull to the 7f pole breezing all the way in 36.0, 48.1.” Trainer John Sadler wins at an excellent 26% (5-for-19) the past three-years with second time starters in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and lures Tyler Baze off my top choice. This $310,000 Haynesfield filly deserves another chance. Pragmatical (#6) will make her second career start off 923-day layoff but she enters her first start on the main track with twelve workouts including a pair of B workouts at Los Alamitos on June 27 and July 9 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant. She ran very well in her only start sitting close to the early lead, taking over the front at mid-stretch, and was swallowed up by the closers the final furlong.
The Play: I doubt that we will get the 20-1 on Tandora as he well backed in his debut and has worked well to merit another chance.
WIN bet on (3) TANDORA
Main Exactas: 3-4, 3-6. Small reverse for each.
Small Exacta: 3-7. No reverse.
Race 7: Allowance N1X,1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds
The early pace of this one-mile route promises to be hotly contested and set it up for those coming from just off the pace or rallying from mid-pack or towards the rear of the field. TimeformUS shows Spanish Hombre, Annie’s Candy, and Lauren’s Ladd fleeing the gate to vie for the early lead. The two morning line favorites, Bombard and Alaskan Son, will be position behind this trio of early leaders along with Curlin Rules. Tristan’s Trilogy will be in mid-pack away from this anticipated fast early pace with Trinitas Soldier, Barton Lodge, and Chewy Round Town towards the rear of the field.
A handsome chestnut son of Curlin, I expect Curlin Rules (#10) to make significant move forward in his first start on the turf for a trainer that has excelled with his starters making their first start on the turf and based on his work over this Jimmy Durante turf course plus his turf laden pedigree I look for Curlin Rules to spring the minor upset. He had no excuse in two of his last three starts on the main track. In the California Chrome Stakes on April 30 at Los Alamitos he stalked the early pace in a comfortable spot on the rail behind the early duel between Rare Candy and Uncle Lino as those two sailed thru a very slow early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-10, -4). He continued on the rail around the far turn, dropped back into the stretch, and offered very little beaten 16-¼ lengths. In his next start on May 29 he had another perfect journey prompting a moderate early pace set by the favorite Rare Candy early, fought on gamely between rivals all the way to mid-stretch, and was no match behind subsequent Gr. 3 Affirmed winner Dalmore where the winner sat a perfect trip in third only 1-½ lengths behind the dueling leaders after a half mile. He added the blinkers for the first time in the Gr. 3 Affirmed on July 2 and lost all chance when he stumbled right at the start with jockey Victor Espinoza wisely wrapping up on this colt through the stretch beaten 21-lengths behind Dalmore. The $375,000 Keeneland September 2014 yearling purchase will now remove the blinkers and try the turf for the first time and both moves have proven to be winning moves from the John Sadler barn. According to DRF Formulator he has won at 26% clip (6-for-23) removing the blinkers and is respectable 15% (9-for-60) with his starters trying the grass for the first time. This year he had Skelton Pass (June 4, 2016, $24.00-1) won in his first start on turf and first start routing and Langham (July 15, 2016, $4.60) ran second beaten three-quarters of a length behind Alaskan Son in his first start on turf and routing as both were trained by John Sadler and owned by his main client Hronis Racing LLC. Although Curlin is only a 12% first time turf sire the dam of Curlin Rules, Awe That, has proven to be a very productive producer of turf winners. She has produced seven starters with FIVE turf winners including multiple turf route winners Screaming Skylar (2-for-6) and Dynafortwo (3-for-12). This chestnut returned with three workouts here at Del Mar including a five furlong 1:00 ⅗ move on the turf on July 31 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commenting “a tad green over the turf but leveled out late in 38.1, 101.3 (23.2 LQ) galloping out very well around the turn. May have been a turf horse all along; blinkers off.” Jockey Victor Espinoza has been aboard for half of trainer John Sadler’s six wins this meet from seven mounts and post position ten is 3-for-8 this meet. Although he lacks form on turf he is trained by a conditioner that excels with starters trying turf for the first time, removing blinkers, and is beautifully bred to handle the surface switch makes Curlin Rules my upset special to start the Guaranteed $600,000 Late Pick 4.
In my exotics I will use three horses including the two morning line favorites but of the three I am most intrigued by longshot Barton Lodge (#6). The Irish bred son of Fastnet Rock has been the victim of two very tough trips in his two starts in the United States. He was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board on April 3 and he was bothered at the start and dropped back to last early behind very tepid early pace set by the gate to wire winner Beach Patrol through the first half mile (23.33 and 47.46). Jockey Abel Lezcano attempted to split rivals leaving the backstretch and into the far turn but had to check badly between rivals, dropped back to last, and did not produce a rally in a race where the first three finishers ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd after a half mile. The form of that race was flattered when the winner returned to run second beaten a nose in the Gr. 2 American Turf at Churchill Downs earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. In his last start on April 29 at Keeneland he pulled jockey Feroux Geroux very hard past the stands for the first time, he was able to settle down, dropped over into the two path into the first turn and raced in between rivals through the next half mile. He moved up in traffic on the far turn, split rivals, and ran evenly to the wire to defeat more than half the field in a respectable effort. He has returned with six workouts at Los Alamitos including a B- move on August 1 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant. With the anticipated fast early pace I look for Jamie Theriot to allow his mount to drop back and make that one patent late run into the far turn. Bombard (#2) is reunited with jockey Flavien Prat who was aboard his maiden victory on June 4 at Santa Anita. He managed to defeat more than half the field on July 16 where his trouble is not as significant as his 3wd stretch, steadied ⅛ comment in the Daily Racing Form suggest. He enjoyed a beautiful trip behind the contested early battle for the lead among Fabozzi, Unapologetic, It’s the Ice, and Horse Greedy after the first six furlong. He was angled three wide into the stretch and could not keep up with the late kick of Lucky Bryan as he steadied as he was outrun by the winner through the stretch. He might have finished third but was not going to impact the first two finishers. Alaskan Son (#3) defeated a sub-par maiden field in the final race on closing day holding off the late rally of first time starter Langham who probably was best.
The Play: I strongly feel that Curlin Rules will take to the turf beautiful based on pedigree, his trainer’s success with starters making their first start on turf, and his most recent workout on the surface. I will only suggest a small win bet on Barton Lodge because his probable odds will probably be very generous after two tough trip in North America. I will single Curlin Rules in my recommend Pick 3 play ending with La Jolla Handicap.
WIN bet on (10) CURLIN RULES
Small WIN bet on (6) BARTON LODGE.
Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-3, 10-6. Small reverse for each.
Pick 3: 10 / 4, 7 / 2, 3, 6, 9 = 1 x 2 x 4 x $2 = $16
Pick 3: 2, 3, 6, 10 / 4, 7 / 2 = 4 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $16
Total Wager: $32
Race 9: Gr. 3 La Jolla Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds
The early pace of today’s co-feature La Jolla Handicap will be similar to the opening day feature Oceanside Stakes and TimeformUS pace projector anticipates a fast early pace to set up for those coming from just off the early lead or closing from far back. Mr. Roary will go for the early lead but will be prompted by his pace rival Imperious One into and around the first turn. The second choice on the morning line favorite Moonlight Drive will get a ideal trip just behind these two dueling leaders tracking them in third. In behind this trio are Free Rose, Oceanside Stakes winner Monster Bea, and Ebadan. I expect horses such as Liam the Charmer, Dressed in Hermes, and Lucky Bryan to be closing with a furious rally late benefiting from an anticipated fast pace.
The morning line favorite Monster Bea will merit the role of favoritism after winning the Oceanside Stakes by 2-¼ lengths at 12-1 under today’s rider Gary Stevens who remains aboard for the fourth time. Although he will be used on some of my wagers, I will use him defensively because he has been the beneficiary of two very good trips in his last two victories. He settled into a dream stalking trip on June 10 stalking the early pace from the rail, split rivals to inherit the lead behind two leaders that weaken badly to finish 8th and 9th and won going away. In his Oceanside Stakes victory he was kept in the clear on the outside in mid-pack behind a blistering pace battle contested by Mr. Roary and Imperious One, moved up on the far turn with dead aim on favorite Moonlight Drive and kick past that rival to win going away covering 16ft and 8ft more than the second and third-place finishers. The 93 Beyer Speed Figure in the field is the top last race figure but gives him no advantage over others in this field that will offer better value.
I have longed been a fan of Liam the Charmer (#2) because of her pedigree that I am very familiar with. She is a daughter of the dam Charm the Giant who was a multiple stakes winner on the turf including Gr. 3 Wilshire and earned $294,734 routing on the turf. The second dam, Olympic Charmer, was perfect in two starts on the turf earning $109,800 routing on the turf. The Smart Strike colt was unlucky not to break his maiden in his second career start on February 20 where he had to navigate three wide trip early, moved up four wide on the far turn, took a brief lead only to be challenged by the 1-2 favored winner Undeniable U and refused to yield easily losing by three-quarters of a length finishing five-lengths ahead of the rest of field all the while covering 11 feet more than the winner in this excellent first race on the turf. He returned from a 78-day layoff on May 8 and with a smoother stalking trip he blasted home to the wire by 5-¼ lengths defeating a key race field where the third-and-ninth-place finishers came back to break their maiden with improved Beyer Speed Figures of 84 and 77 respectively. After this maiden victory he was prompted entered in the Rainbow Stakes on June 18 at Santa Anita where he was stretching back out to 1-⅛ miles the same distance of his better than looked runner-up performance in his second career start and ran third beaten a half-length behind the 38-1 gate to wire winner Mr. Roary. The dark bay or brown colt had a terrible wide trip. The Mike McCarthy trainee was forced to break from post position eleven in a eleven horse field and was caught three wide around the first turn, dropped back briefly into the backstretch, began to pick up momentum on the far turn while four wide, angled widest of all into the stretch, and delivered fast closing rally to fall a half-length short. In order to show the extent of his wide trip, one only has to review the Trakus chart. He covered 69ft, 39ft, and 59ft more than the winner, second-place finisher Ralis, and fourth-place finish Lucky Bryan. When you consider the amount of ground he lost and he was beaten only half-length one can argue that Liam the Charmer ran the best race in the Rainbow Stakes. The form of that race received an upgrade when the fourth-and-seventh place finishers returned to win their next start with improved 91 and 88 Beyer Speed Figures in their next start. He will make his first start off a 49-day layoff with four works to suggest he has recovered well from his tough trip in his most recent start including a smart B work on July 31 that Andy Harrington commented “Prat up; breezing all the way while always best over recent runner-up Longstocking in 38.0, 101.4.” He will get a significant post position upgrade after drawing the far outside post in two of his last three starts he draws post position two where he will workout a terrific trip stalking in mid-pack along the rail behind anticipated fast pace battle contested by Mr. Roary and Imperious One. Santiago Gonzalez takes over in the irons for the first time and with three wins on the turf this meet he is more than a capable substitute replacement. He will be a square price and with a cleaner trip merits upset status.
In my exotics I will use two horses that exit the Oceanside Stakes and one horse that exits a tough trip victory on the second day of the meet. Lucky Bryan (#6) ran behind our top choice when he finished fourth in the Rainbow Stakes but that was his second start following two hundred and seventeen day layoff. He made his third start following that long layoff on the second day of the meet and got up as the mild 4-1 favorite over my top choice in that race All the Marbles to win by a nose. The son of Lookin at Lucky was forced to break from the outermost post twelve in a twelve horse field broke fine but was navigated towards the rear of the field without losing a lot of ground into the first turn sitting in the two path through the first half mile. He launched his move three wide on the far turn, eased out seven wide for a clear run as he was drifting in thru the stretch, but straighten up and rallied to catch my 10-1 top choice on the wire to win by a nose. As with our top choice, he covered 8ft and 56ft more than the second and third place finishers. He enters his second race this meet with a excellent B work per Andy Harrington on July 31 that he caught faster than the official time stating “Big sort bounced out big from late try reaching home in 37.0, 100.4 (23.4 LQ) out fluidly around the turn.” The John Sadler trainee will benefit from a contested pace by Mr. Roary and Imperious One and if Victor Espinoza can keep him from drifting in through the stretch he can duplicate his come from behind victory. Moonlight Drive (#3) ran second behind Monster Bea in the Oceanside Stakes and he ran very well when you consider he was making his first start off a one hundred and fifty one day layoff. In that race he chased the spirited speed duel between Mr. Roary and Imperious One in a perfect spot in fourth early, moved up leaving the far turn into that fast pace to take over the lead at the top of the stretch, and was collared by the opportunistic closing winner. Flavien Prat takes over in the irons and when he teams up with Bob Baffert they win at a 50% (6-3-0-1) the past five years. Ebadan (#9) finished tenth beating only one horse to the wire in the Oceanside Stakes but this was inconclusive performance. He settled towards the rear behind the fast pace speed duel early, moved up along the rail, split rivals into the stretch, but had to steady sharply behind the tiring leaders Mr. Roary and Imperious One when a hole did not develop in the stretch and was wisely wrapped up through the stretch. His third-place finish on June 12 fits very nicely in this field and will be a huge price versus his 5-1 odds in the Oceanside Stakes where he was the third betting choice.
The Play: I will look to beat morning line favorite Monster Bea from finishing either first or second and hope that Liam the Charmer gets that coveted ground saving stalk and pounce trip under Santiago Gonzalez. I will single Liam the Charmer in the final leg of my suggested Pick 3 that starts in Race 7 and we are live in the Pick 3 I will still recommend playing a WIN bet on him.
WIN bet on (2) LIAM THE CHARMER
Main Exactas: 2-3, 2-6. Small reverse for each.
Small Exacta: 2-9. Small reverse.
