Smiling Shirelee Looks to Enjoy Fast Pace and Return to Dirt in Betty Grable Stakes

Race 5:

The red coded on the TimeformUS past performance suggest that this Starter Allowance will feature a fast pace as comebacking Paladar, Broon, and Synthesis will be vying for the early lead in this 1-1/16 event and one horse that will appreciate the contentious pace scenario will be POLAR WIND (#1, 4-1). The son of Super Saver has had excuses in his last three starts on the main trackthat has resulted in one in the money finish from three starts. He finished seventh and last on August 1 but he encountered a very wide journey running anywhere from three to four wide throughout and had no chance to save ground finishing last beaten 10-¾ lengths in a race where the also ran, Tizamagician, returned to win Allowance N1X with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure on September 5 at Del Mar. In his next start, he rallied from next to last to finish third in a race where the first two finishers, Cajun Treasure and Dr. Troutman ran second and first after the first half mile as POLAR WIND was the only horse to make up any ground through the stretch. He dropped for a claiming price of $50,000 in his last start where he finished fifth in a race that saw the first two finishers, Bronn and Signofthecross, run first and second throughout in a merry go round race that earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-20,-11) and corresponding blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. The homebred son of Super Saver is protected in this Starter Allowance event off a poor effort, a positive sign as he makes his first start as a gelding. Moreover, he is bred to love the expected off going by 17% wet track sire and she is by the dam Wind Gust whose only foal to race, Tidal Effect, was second in three starts on a wet track including a runner-up effort beaten a neck on the wet sealed main track here at Del Mar on November 29, 2018. Top rider Umberto Rispoli remains in the irons, he is ideally drawn on the rail to save ground into the first turn, and should be a contentious pace scenario to set up for his late kick. At 4-1 on the morning line he is good gamble to spring the minor upset in a race that begins the late Pick 4. 

The Play: 

WIN bet on (1) POLAR WIND at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 1-2, 1-8. Small reverse for each. 

Race 7: 

The featured Betty Grable Stakes does not have a red coded designation on TimeformUS past performances to indicate fast early pace but the lineup of horses in this field suggest it should be swift. TimeformUS has designated Miss Megan, Hotitude, and Mo See Cal with running styles of “Speed” or “Leader” and  all prefer to be on or near the early lead and with Mo See Call returning off a 357-day layoff and wearing blinkers this pace should be contentious. My top three should selections should all benefit from this pace and one that will be suited best to it is SMILING SHIRELEE (#2, 8-1) whose last two starts you can totally draw a line right through them. She was off the board in two previous turf starts and her fifth place finish in the California Distaff Handicap at 5-½ furlongs on the turf was excusable because of the surface. Two races she finished fifth and last beaten 16-½ lengths in the Tranqulity Lake Stakes but she doesn't want to go a route of ground against open company. This daughter of Smiling Tiger wants to sprint on the main track versus California bred company and she will do that today. The last time she raced over this Del Mar main track sprinting happened in the Fleet Treat Stakes on July 24 where she raced off the pace in the two to three path down the backstretch, made a three wide run on the far turn, was outrun by the leaders at the top of the stretch, and one paced to the wire. This performance was the result of a lack of early speed as it earned moderate Moss Pace Figures (-1,-4) and blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Instead the best way to judge this Jeff Bonde trainee is her win in the Evening Jewel Stakes on May 16 at Santa Anita where she rallied behind a very fast early pace earning Moss Pace Figures (+9,+2) and red coded TimeformUS pace figure to get up to win by a half length. She has come back with two half mile moves in the interim including a maintenance spin on October 30. Regular rider Mike Smith remains in the irons and he is off to fast start with four wins from his first ten mounts this meet and with the anticipated quick pace I expect SMILING SHIRELEE to make that patent late run to spring the upset. 

The Play:

WIN bet on (2) SMILING SHIRELEE at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 2-1, 2-8. Small reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: 1,2,8 with 2. 

Race 8: 

In the finale there are two clear speed entrants in this field with the TimeformUS running style designation “Leader,” Microrithms and our top choice ANYPORTINASTORM (#2, 4-1) who is drawn inside of his speed rival and is the speed of this field. The son of City Zip has won stakes on the main track and Tapeta surface at Zia Park, Golden Gate, Emerald Downs, and Pleasanton. In his previous win on July 4 in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes, he dueled in the four path in a three horse battle for the early lead, continued racing in the four path in that intense three horse duel on the far turn, shook clear of those two pace rivals into the stretch, and inched clear as the 1-9 post time favorite in a four-horse field that he was expected to win. He took a giant leap from a class standpoint when he ran in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby here at Del Mar on August 1 and finished seventh beating one rival to the wire but the 9-½ length margin of defeat does not reflect the intense speed duel he was involved in. He broke from post position two and was sent up inside of a six horse battle for the early lead and was part of this speed duel through very fast fractions earning off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+13,+8) earning corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. He continued with this fight for the lead all the way to the five-sixteenth pole when he was the first to quit from the duel and steadied as he tired past the quarter pole and jockey Juan Hernandez wisely wrapped up on this six year old to the wire in a race where the fast fractions saw the first two finishers rally from seventh and eighth early. He will make his first start for trainer Peter Miller with the addition of blinkers and he concluded his work tab for his new trainer with a five furlong move on November 1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Cedillo up; went willingly in this solo spin for the Miller barn in 35.1, 59.4. Holds speed well.” The expected wet weather will not bother ANYPORTINASTORM as his sire City Zip produces 18% winners on wet track and his dam La Defense broke her maiden by 2-½ lengths on a sloppy main track and she has produced four siblings that won on an off track. With being the speed of this field making his first start for the high percentage Peter Miller barn and bred to love an off track I expect ANYPORTINASTORM to return to his winning ways on the drop in class in the finale on Sunday at Del Mar. 

The Play:

WIN bet on (2) ANYPORTINASTORM at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 2-3, 2-9. Small reverse for each. 

Spielberg Looks for the Spot Light in Del Mar Futurity

 Race 7: N.K. ROCKET MAN (#11, 10-1)

The morning line favorite and bridesmaid Tropical Terror who has finished second in six of his last nine starts routing on the turf including last time out when he missed by a nose behind slow early pace set by the gate to wire winner Hammering Lemon. Do not be fooled by his margin of defeat to indicate that today will be the day he breaks his maiden. In some of his other runner up efforts, Tropical Terror lost by a neck, three quarters of a length, and a half length as this Golden Balls gelding always comes up short. Instead, I went back to my horses to watch this meet and landed on N.K. ROCKET MAN who after reviewing the past performances one can say that his debut on August 8 was nothing more than a prep to stretch him out to two turns, a distance that his pedigree suggests he will adore. He is by terrific turf influence Unusual Heat out of the dam This Means War who won her first two starts on turf including one mile California bred Allowance N1X for today’s trainer Dean Pederson. Her second dam, Top Of Our Game, is another turf influence as she won four of eighteen starts on the turf and was stakes placed on the turf. Based on a limited sample, trainer Dean Pederson was winless with his previous two starters making their debut sprinting on the turf and with his distance oriented pedigree and trainer that prefers to give his maidens a race in their first start, N.K. Rocket Man was using his August 8 race as nothing more than a prep to stretch out and that is exactly how one can explain his fourth place finish. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran inside midpack, reacting badly to tight quarters entering the turn, throwing his head, gathering himself for a rail effort in the lane, outkicked for 3rd. He can learn a ton from the trip today.” The one area that was not described in the Handicapper’s Report that I saw on the race replay was the gallop out. According to Trip Notes Pros, on the gallop out he “EXPLODED despite the jock trying not to give him permission to.” There is definetly a lot more substance in N.K. Rocket Man as he makes his second career start and stretches out to one mile for the first time. He has come back with three workouts to indicate he has maintained his form and jockey Thiago Pereira remains in the irons as the go to rider for Dean Pederson barn. With the added ground, better than looked debut effort sprinting on turf, and only making his second career start with plenty of upside in front of him, N.K. ROCKET MAN is the type of choice I prefer in this maiden turf event with the favorite a proven bridesmaid. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (11) N.K. ROCKET MAN at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #11 with #9 Carmelita’s Man, #6 Luvluv, #2 Mamba Cool. Small reverse. 

Race 8: SHANGHAI TRUFFLE (#6, 12-1)

Each Del Mar meet there is always one horse that I identify has tough trips not identified in the running lines and runs in the final week of the meet. This Allowance N1X sprint at six and half furlongs on the main track sees the early pace breaking from post positions two thru four among Magic at Midnight, Happier, and Golden Principal with Magic at Midnight and Golden Prinicipal the quickest early with comparable Moss Pace Figures on the main track and second choice Happier broke her maiden disputing a moderate pace and could be part of this fast pace. If the pace becomes too fast this race could set up perfectly for the late run of SHANGHAI TRUFFLE who has run twice this meet and each race she encountered difficult circumstances that compromised her chances. She returned from a 74 day layoff on July 27 at this same class level at one mile on the main track and tired to be a non threatening third behind the favored winner Harvest Moon but she was compromised by track profile on that afternoon. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “dropped onto the rail heading into the first turn, traveled midfield down the backstretch, bid between foes in the far turn, flattened out midstretch, best of the rest.” What made this effort better than looked was she raced on the rail for the majority of the trip chasing that very fast pace set by Velvet Queen on a main track that featured a strong pro outside bias and this daughter of Shanghai Bobby was pinned on the slower inside paths behind a winner that returned to win Grade 3 Torrey Pines with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The Patty Gallagher trainee broke her maiden for a $50,000 and was eligible for a Starter Allowance event at the same one mile distance on August 16 and the class relief did not help as she finished third but this time her excuse was ill timed ride by jockey Mike Smith. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “raced three-wide at the back of the pack into the first turn, sent five-wide around foes to the front heading onto the backstretch, pushed the tempo three-deep to the far turn, battled four-wide into the lane, stayed on to the wire, won the battle for third.” She lost more ground than the 3-¼ length margin of defeat as she was moved prematurely to press that fast pace while widest in the field. She now makes that all important cut back to one turn with the aforementioned three entrants flashing early speed to set up for her late kick with Thiago Pereira taking in the irons for the first time. The field’s leader in TimeformUS late pace rating, SHANGHAI TRUFFLE is my best longshot bet on the card and I hope we can be anywhere near his 12-1 morning line. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (6) SHANGHAI TRUFFLE at 10-1 or higher. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #2 Magic at Midnight, #7 Been Studying Her. Small reverse for each. 

 

Race 9: INNER GHOST (#12, 15-1)

I do not have anything negative to say about the tepid morning line favorite Rombauer who broke his maiden in his career debut at today’s distance on July 25 here at Del Mar where he finished his last two furlongs in 22.93 seconds defeating two next out winners who returned to earn Beyer Speed Figures of 50 and 48 respectively. Although the European imports Cotopaxi and Ebeko have had comments of making the running or led, the early speed displayed in European does not equal to North America early speed. The one colt that has flashed North America early speed and is attempting to stretch that speed to two turns is INNER GHOST who ships in from Monmouth Park to make his first start around two turns. The homebred son of Ghostzapper is bred to excel at a route of ground as his sire wins at 17% with his two year olds routing on turf and his dam Dreamup won one of three starts as a two-year old and was three for three routing on the main track. She is trained Michael Stidham who excels with two year olds making their debut on the turf sprinting as he has connected at a gaudy 43% (30/13-4-4) the last five years which explains why Inner Ghost received action in his career debut going off at 9-2 third choice and delivered a visually impressive maiden winner that is not captured in his 50 Beyer Speed Figure. According to Trip Notes Pros comments, he “was in the middle of (2) different 3-across lineups in this race with the same horses. Approaching the far turn he and the inside rival dropped back to allow the three wide rival to cross over. At the top of the stretch he and the original inside rival moved up two wide and three wide to form the 2nd 3-across lineup. Gamely battled and won the prolonged stretch drive. Liked the way he galloped out.” He will now make his first start routing on turf in his second career start and in the past five years trainer Michael Stidham has won at 28% (18/5-2-4) with that move. In addition, the trainer and owner tandem have sent winning shippers to Del Mar with Elsa (November 24, 2018, $11.40-1), Alms (November 30, 2019, $2.70-1), and recently with Pixelate in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke who quietly has ridden six turf wins this meet with some of those prices such as Red Lark in Del Mar Oaks takes over in the irons for the first time and the leader in TimeformUS early pace rating is a clear leader in TimeformUS pace projector and I expect him to be on the lead and make every pole a winning one at a fair price as his morning line appears too high. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (12) INNER GHOST at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #12 with #10 Rombauer. Small reverse. 

Race 10: SPIELBERG (#1, 2-1)

This race features the two year olds that ran on August 8 at Del Mar. On that afternoon, Grade 2 Best Pal was won by today’s entrant Weston and four races later a maiden race at the exact same six furlong distance as the Best Pal. The maiden race featured fractions and final time that was faster than the Best Pal and the top two finishers, Dr. Schivel and Spielberg, returned to this spot. Although the former defeated the latter by 5-¾ lengths to earn the field’s highest last race 86 Beyer Speed Figure, I was more impressed by SPIELBERG’s second place finish as he moved early to attack the dueling leaders Noble Reflection and Superman Shaq and was run down by the perfect trip stalking winner who was making his third career start. A cheasnut son of Union Rags who cost $1 million at the Keeneland September 2019 sale which was the highest purchase price from the 63 yearlings by Union Rags at the sale. He was always bred to adore distance of ground as his dam, Miss Sequel, won three of seven starts around two turns on the main track and her only foal to race, High Road, won two of six starts routing on the main track. He received all the support going off as the 4-5 post time favorite with the traditional fast Bob Baffert workouts that impressed mornings observers such as National Turf’s Andy Harrington who raved about this colt’s workouts on July 27 and August 2 with B+ and his barn had sent out two debuting maidens to win in their first start already in the meeting. Breaking from the outermost post position eight in a eight horse, he “tracked the top two, pushing forward 3-wide in the turn, driving to the lead in upper stretch, having no response for the winner, keeping on to hold 2nd,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the fourth place finisher, Waspirant, returned on August 29 to break his maiden with a 63 Beyer Speed Figure (seven point improvement) and the pace rival that weakened to finish sixth, second choice Superman Shaq, came back on September 6 to break his maiden impressively by 3-¾ lengths. Although he is a maiden making his second start in this prestigious Grade 1 event, trainer Bob Baffert accomplished the same feat in 2014 when beaten favorite in his debut came back in the Del Mar Futurity and romped and that horse’s name was American Pharoah. Spielberg has continued to train very well for his second start with back to back B workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. He leads the field in TimeformUS early pace ratings and has the early speed from the rail to make the lead or can elect to stalk if Dixie’s Two Stents and Weston elect to go for the early lead with Abel Cedillo the ideal passenger. As the second choice in this field of six, I expect Spielberg to improve over his debut as my most probable winner on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) SPIELBERG at 8-5 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #5 Dixie’s Two Stents. Small reverse. 

Race 11: KLONDIKE CREEK (#4, 9-2)

With the dirt sprinter, I’m Busy, entered in this field and that entrant has been on the lead or no more than 1-½ lengths off the lead at the first pace call in his previous seven starts. This race will have an honest pace. Others in this field that look to be forwardly placed on or near the front end are Fabozzi and R Cha Cha as both entrants have triple digit plus TimeformUS early pace ratings and exit dirt sprints. This race is ripe for a horse from just off the pace and no horse fits that profile perfectly then seven year old KLONDIKE CREEK who enters this race in good form having hit the board in his previous four starts with two of them victories, one of the turf and the other on the Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields. Prior to his better than third place finish in his last turf start, he won the Tapeta surface on February 7 where he found himself in second pressing at a very slow early pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-13,-12) earning corresponding blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. It took the entire length of the stretch for Klondike Creek to wear down the long time leader Irrefutable to win by a neck as the 1-1 favorite. This race was not a strong race as the six horses behind him produced two third-place finishes and four off the board finishes. He returned from a 107 day layoff on May 24 at 1-1/16 miles on the turf and he finished third beaten a half length behind the 32-1 winner who rallied from ninth and last. According to the Trip Note Pros comments, he “secured the dreaded uncovered three to four wide trip throughout. Moved up willingly while still wide on the far turn. Put in a rally in the lane but was out finished late by the top two.” He deserves a pass for this race given the amount of ground he lost throughout. He makes returned off another 106 day layoff but has trained very well ending with five furlong move in 1:02 flat that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B working in company Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf runner up Ivy League with the comment “galloping out a length in front down to the 7/8 pole in 49.3, appearing best, a good work.” He is drawn well in post position four to navigate a ground saving trip into the first turn and makes a huge rider upgrade to Flavien Prat as he and Umberto Rispoli are going down to the last day to determine the leading rider of the summer Del Mar meet. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) KLONDIKE CREEK at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #1 Fabozzi, #9 Three Ay Em. Small reverse for each. 

Del Mar Race 7 Pick 5

Race 7: (2) Mamba Cool, (6) Luvluv, (9) Carmelita’s Man, (11) N.K. Rocket Man 

Race 8: (2) Magic at Midnight, (6) Shanghai Truffle, (7) Been Studying Her 

Race 9: (10) Rombauer, (12) INNER GHOST  

Race 10: (1) SPIELBERG

Race 11: (1) Fabozzi, (4) Klondike Creek, (9) Three Ay Em 

Ticket 1: 2,6,9,11 with 2,6,7 with 12 with 1 with 1,4,9      = 4 x 3 x 1 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $36 

Ticket 2: 2,6,9,11 with 2,6,7 with 10,12 with 1 with 1,4,9 = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 3 x $0.50 = $36 

Total Wager: $72 

  

Illumination Looks to Repeat History in the Del Mar Debutante

 Race 8: CANOODLING (#6, 8-1)

I have no knocks on the two morning line favorites, Madone and Ivy League, as those two juvenile fillies ran first and second at this distance in their debut on July 31 at Del Mar and they finished 4-½ lengths in front of the rest of the field as both are eligible to move forward. The second preference goes to Madone because of a better draw but the price potential in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf goes to CANOODLING who also debuted on that same July 31 that two morning line favorites but did so in a five furlong turf sprint. The daughter of Pioneer of the Nile was sent off as the fifth choice at 6-1 in her debut as she did not have a particularly strong pedigree for turf or a trainer that does well with debuting maidens sprinting on the turf.  She by respectable 13% turf sire out of the dam unraced Harlan’s Holiday mare Miz Kella who produced one starter, Vanilla Bean Back, who broke her maiden in her career debut sprinting on the main track with a 66 Beyer Speed Figure and this was going to be her first turf starter. Trainer Jeff Mullins has sent only ten starters to make their debut sprinting on the turf recording only two second place finishes and one third. She had trained very well for her debut recording a B work according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington outwokring debut winner and Del Mar Debutante starter Roll Up Mo Money and this work rolled over to her debut victory on July 31 where she was visually impressive. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “was a ½ step slow and broke a bit in at the start, had one beat down the backstretch, gained along the rail around the far turn, angled out three-wide between horses leaving that bend and into the stretch, powered to the front near deep stretch, drew clear to the wire.” The part that was impressive about this maiden win was her gallop out as she continued on past the wire suggesting the distance should pose no issue and she had more to give after this race. The dark bay or brown filly now stretches out and has returned with four workouts including a razor sharp five furlong move in 1:01.3 on August 30 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating this filly “leveled out quite well this morning reaching like a good thing in 26.0, 101.3. There is upside here.” Juan Hernandez who was aboard for that victory remains in the irons and although trainer Jeff Mullins is winless in his previous fourteen starters making their first route race in their second career start, CANOODLING has the ability and potential to overcome that statistic to score the minor upset.  

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (6) CANOODLING at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta Box: #6-#2 Madone and #6-#11 Ivy League. 

Race 9: ILLUMINATION (#5, 4-1)

The universal single in this year’s Del Mar Debutante belongs to the fancied Bob Baffert morning line favorite PRINCESS NOOR who broke her maiden by 2-½ lengths in a gallop on August 22 and delivered an impressive gallop out according to the Trip Note Pros earning the field’s top last race 76 Beyer Speed Figure. If she wins then she wins at odds below her morning line of 8-5 but I do not trust flashy maiden winners such as this daughter of Not This Time considering the conditions she encountered her win. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “was asked to take the front, setting a solid unmolested tempo, cruising clear into the stretch without being asked, pulling away once again when given a brief shake of the rein.” Despite this “in hand” victory, she was able to be loose on the lead through very slow early fractions earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-7, -5) with corresponding blue coded TimeformUS pace figures earning an average 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Instead I prefer the higher priced Bob Baffert entrant in ILLUMINATION who has a similar profile as last year’s Debutante winner Bast. The daughter of Uncle Mo ran second in her career debut, added the blinkers for the first time in the Debutante, and she broke her maiden in this race by 8-¾ lengths earning 85 Beyer Speed Figure. A daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was highly regarded at the Fasig Tipton Saratoga August 2019 sale as she was sixth highest priced yearling at $900,000 from the 39 yearlings by that sire and she comes from a black type mare in Light the City who won her first two starts including the Anokia Stakes and was Grade 1 placed as a three year old. The Bob Baffert trainee was bet down to the 3-5 post time favorite on August 15 where she ran second behind the perfect trip stalking debut winner Forest Caraway who appears in this race but this dark bay or brown filly ran a respectable race considering the pace she chased or pressed. In that race, she broke running but quickly was outsprinted by the very fast second time starter Mandragora Seeker who set fractions of 21.43 and 44.44 seconds earning above average Moss Pace Figures (+8,+3) and corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She bid between rivals at the top of the stretch and fought gamely towards the wire to hold her stablemate Kalypso for second while racing on her wrong lead to the wire which is very rare for a Bob Baffert trainee. The third place finisher returned on September 4 to run second beaten half length in a maiden race. She has returned with two workouts with the blinkers including a five furlong team move working inside of her stablemate and morning line favorite Princess Noor on August 31 in 1:01 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “easy albeit a tad second best inside Princess Noor in 37.3, 101.1. Solid right back; was in blinkers.” Abel Cedillo remains aboard and with the blinkers I do not expect her to go straight for the lead but similar to Bast last year settle just off the pace between Princess Noor and My Girl Red and if she switches leads as she has done in her morning drills then she can give her fancied mate a run for her money at much a higher price. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) ILLUMINATION at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #3 My Girl Red, #6 Forest Caraway. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: PIXELATE (#4, 3-1) 

The three-year old turf division in Southern California has taken turns beating each other in the past three months. The three major events in Southen California for three year old turf horses are the Cinema won by Hariboux, opening day Del Mar feature Oceanside Stakes won by Hit it a Bomb, and recently the La Jolla Stakes won by Smooth Like Strait. The Del Mar Derby is the fourth race in this division and a fresh face with excellent East Coast turf form ships in for the money. PIXELATE is accustomed to a variety of turf conditions as Del Mar will be his eighth turf course he has tried as he has won or ran second at Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs, and Delaware Park. The homebred son of City Zip has not found the winner’s circle in his last three starts but he has earned speed figures in each start that equal to a winning effort in this event and he has faced some of the East Coast best three year old turf horses in his last two starts. He was sent off as the 5-2 third choice in the Audubon Stakes on June 20 at Churchill Downs where his rally was ineffective behind a moderate early pace set by the gate to wire winner Field Pass who returned to win the Translyvania Stakes at Keeneland on July 12 with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure. The Michael Stidham trainee shipped to Delaware Park for the Grade 3 Kent on July 4 and ran a winning race in defeat but was out kicked to the wire by the favored winner Gufo in a race that has returned to be very productive. The dark bay or brown colt settled into a comfortable spot early racing two wide on first turn and down the backstretch behind a fast pace set by the loose leader Sunsation early. He continued racing two wide on the far turn, angled four wide at top of the stretch, put in his bid past mid-stretch but was out kicked by Gufo who rallied from next to last and made the last run to win by a half length in a new course record that earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure as those two finished three lengths clear of third place finisher. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to run second beaten a head in the Saratoga Derby earning 93 Beyer Speed Figure and third place finisher Vanzzy returned to win the Jersey Derby on July 26 at Monmouth Park with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure. He will make his first start off a sixty four day layoff for a trainer who in the past five years has shipped eight starters to Del Mar and has won twice with Elsa (November 24, 2018, $11.40-1) and Alms (November 30, 2019, $2.70-1) both winners owned and bred by today’s owner Godolphin LLC. He has tactical speed to sit in midpack at what should be a brisk pace with hustling rider Edwin Maldonando taking on Dominant Soul and Margot’s Boy tracking that rival into the first turn and down the backstretch. Del Mar’s leading turf rider, Umberto Rispoli (33 turf wins), should navigate a ground saving trip from post four and when the real running begins, have dead aim on the tiring leaders as the most probable winner on the card. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (4) PIXELATE at 9-5 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #2 California Kook, #11 Margot’s Boy, #12 K P All Systems Go. No reverse. 

Race 11: BIG STORY (#9, 9-2) 

When I review the horses that have a race under them I am not impressed with them making me prefer a fresh face in the Sunday finale at Del Mar. The morning line favorite Big Flame ran second in his career debut behind Taco Flavored Kisses in a race where the third thru fifth place finishers also returned in this event. The race itself had a moderate early pace with the first three finishers running second, first, and third at each call and earned an average 63 Beyer Speed Figure (Beyer par 65). The form of that race was not flattered when the winner returned to finish third beaten 4-¾ lengths in the I’m Smokin Stakes on September 4 here at Del Mar and third thru fifth place finishers were in a three horse photo finish for the minor awards as visually this was not an impressive race. The other horse with experience, Alpine Thunder, received positive comments from Trip Notes Pros with the comment “galloped out HUGE.” The issue with his race was it happened 107 days ago and he was a veterieran scratch on June 28 in a similar maiden race at Los Alamitos. The winner of that May 22 race, Positivity, won the Graduation Stakes earning a below average 60 Beyer Speed Figure and from the five horses that ran behind the winner it has produced only one third place finish with four horses off the board in their next race. From the horses making their career debut in the finale, BIG STORY was the entrant that appealed to me the most. Although from a pedigree perspective BIG STORY is not bred to win at this six furlong distance as his sire, Mr. Big, has won at 7% (2-for-29) in the past five years with two-year old sprinting on the main track and he is out of an unraced dam and Big Story in her first starter. However, trainer Mark Glatt historically has done well with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track at Del Mar and this gelding has really impressed National Turf’s Andy Harrington in his training to suggest he can overcome his lack of precoious breeding to win in his career debut. In the past five years, trainer Mark Glatt has sent twelve two-year olds making their debut sprinting on the main track at Del Mar and connected with only two of them for a 17% win rate but those two winners were not favored. Collusion Illusion (July 21, 2019, $5.20-1) and Vai (August 28, 2016, $8.00-1) were ready to win their debut for trainer Mark Glatt and My Mandate (August 12, 2018, $6.80-1) ran second in his first start. The gray or roan gelding has thrived in his training with his last two workouts here at Del Mar receiving B from National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a five furlong team drill in 1:01 3/5 with stablemate and today’s rival Suzie Qzz Brother on August 28 that he stated “tracked and ran away from race mate Suzie Qzz Brother in a faster than given 25.0, 49.3, 101.3. Nice kick here.” In a race where the horses with experience are below average, BIG STORY brings excellent worktab and trainer who has done with well debuting maidens at Del Mar to suggest that this gelding is ready and roll in his first start as he lures leading rider Umberto Rispoli in the irons. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (9) BIG STORY at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #10 Big Flame, #4 Lil Nas. No reverse. 

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4

Race 8: (2) Madone, (6) Canoodling, (11) Ivy League 

Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway 

Race 10: (4) PIXELATE

Race 11: (9) BIG STORY

Main Ticket: 2,6,11 with 5 with 4 with 9 = 3 x 1 x 1 x 1 x $5 = $15

Ticket 1:    2,6,11 with 3,6 with 4 with 9 = 3 x 2 x 1 x 1 x $2 = $12 

Total Wager: $27

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 3

Race 8: (2) Madone, (6) Canoodling, (11) Ivy League 

Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway 

Race 10: (4) PIXELATE

Ticket 1: 2,6,11 with 5 with 4    = 3 x 1 x 1 x $4 = $12 

Ticket 2: 2,6,11 with 3,6 with 4 = 3 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $12 

Total Wager: $24 

 

Del Mar Race 9 Pick 3

Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway 

Race 10: (4) PIXELATE

Race 11: (9) BIG STORY

Ticket 1: 5 with 4 with 9    = 1 x 1 x 1 x $5 = $5 

Ticket 2: 3,6 with 4 with 9 = 2 x 1 x 1 x $2 = $4 

Total Wager: $9 

Raymundos Secret Finds Perfect Pace Scenario in the Mabee

 Race 3: WHIRL CANDY (#4, 5-1)

The morning line favorite, Seiche, exits a third place finish on August 15 and now stretches out in his second career start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of Super Saver “trailed badly, moved closer around the far turn, tried to come through inside the leader, but did not have clear sailing past midstretch allowing the winner first run, one-paced when clear, missed the place.” The even running style suggests he should relish the two turns but his subsequent training after that respectable effort and his trainer’s surprisingly lack of success with second start maiden stretching out for the first time leaves Seiche vulnerable as the favorite. He worked a half mile on August 30 in 49.3 that Handicapper’s Report clocker reported “did not look as good as usual in this five furlong work, wearing blinkers, going off from the 1/2 mile pole, opening 1/4 in 24.4, raising his head crossing the wire while being coaxed along in 49.1, still being coaxed down to the 7/8 pole in 102.0, so-so work, a bit disappointing this week,” for C+ move. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert is only 8% (3-for-39) the past five years with his trainees making their second start stretching out to a route on the main track for the first time. I am looking elsewhere and in this race a horse that made my horses to watch list on July 26 for his game third-place finish over this same layout. WHIRL CANDY had finished off the board in his first three starts before trainer Richard Baltas decided to geld him, took the blinkers off and try routing on the main track for the first time in his fourth career start and he ran his best race finishing third earning the co highest last race 77 Beyer Speed Figure where he earned this figure under very difficult circumstances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “raced to the front, left the rail open into the first turn, settled on the leader’s flank, pressed the tempo to the far turn, took command, dueled into the lane, led to deep stretch, tagged for second.” This was a very fast early pace earning kamikaze Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+21,+10) and earning corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. The pace was so fast it saw the leader, Winner’s Club, tire to finish eighth beaten 19-½ lengths as this son of Twirling Candy won the battle for the early lead but lost the war. He has returned with four workouts including best of 28 five furlong move on August 28 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a respectable B- stating “asked for a good work, opening ⅜ in 35.2, asked through the stretch, up in 59.4, a decent work, but let run.” The speed of this field and retaining the services of Flavien Prat this dark bay or brown gelding will flash his speed to the first turn and with an easier pace scenario can race gate to wire as one of two recommended singles on your multi-race wagers on Saturday Del Mar card. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) WHIRL POWER at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #2 Charlito, #8 A.P. Pharoah. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: LIBERAL (#4, 12-1)

The morning line favorite Whopping Jay will make his third start this meet and exits a win versus California-bred Allowance on August 14 but his status as the favorite is really based on his second place finish in the California Dreamin Stakes where he finished second beaten only a half length behind the favored perfect trip and five time winner Galilean. That California bred stakes event was not the most productive. Out of the also ran, Take the One O One, who returned to the main track to win Allowance N2X with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, six horses returned from that race producing one winner, one second place finish, and four horses finishing off the board including the Galiean who finished fifth in the Del Mar Mile on August 23 duplicating his 90 Beyer Speed Figure. His win on August 14 was against a weak field of California-breds Allowance N1X. The third place finisher Jetovator is a five time loser at that class level and the field was bunched at the wire with the first five finishers seperated by only 2-¼ lengths at the wire. Instead I am going to prefer a horse taking a step up in class but faced a key race field in his last race. LIBERAL has only a N2L win on the turf on May 16 at Santa Anita but that race was an indication that this Irish bred was rounding into form. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled at the back of the pack, traveled willingly along the inside down the backstretch, rallied under cover into contention in the far turn, split runners into the lane, bid between runners midstretch, rallied to the lead, powered through the wire.” The field was well strung out behind him a sign of a quality victory and the runner up returned to win earning a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He returned from a 83 day layoff on August 7 and ran into a productive field finishing second behind the runaway winner Scarto. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had only his stablemate beat inside, picked off horses along the rail around the far turn, came out leaving that bend, no threat to the winner, up for the place. He was helped by the raceshape.” The raceshape did aid his rally as the fractions were fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure and the form of this has already been flattered. The winner returned to win Allowance N1X on August 31 with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure, third place finisher returned to run second on the main track in a Starter Allowance earning 81 Beyer Speed Figure, and the fifth place finisher returned to run second earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure in Allowance N1X on the turf at Golden Gate. The Patrick Gallagher trainee has returned with an easy maintenance half mile work in 49.2 on August 29 and retains the services of jockey Drayden Van Dyke for the third straight time. He will make his first start at this 1-⅛ miles but with his excellent post position (four), he should save ground leaving the chute and around both turns and with any clear sailing at the top of the stretch flash that potent late kick at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) LIBERAL at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Dubby Dubbie, #5 Rocky Tough. Small reverse for each. 

Race 9: TOBACCO ROAD (#7, 6-1)

The bet against in this race goes towards the second choice on the morning line Camby who makes his second start at this N3L class level after finishing third as the 5-2 second choice on August 9 here at Del Mar. Given the trip he encountered with moderate early pace to chase or pressed, this son of Candy Ride no excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “raced midfield to the far turn, bore down on the lead four-deep to the quarter-pole, briefly poked his nose in front, raced five-wide into the lane, bid to deep stretch, best of the rest.” The part about that note was that he failed to kick on from mid-stretch to the wire as he hung badly losing second to Self Taught who was a 1-½ length off the lead at the eighth pole and Camby failed to finish the job to win or finish second. The horse who exits the fastest races and is nice price on the morning line goes to the closer TOBACCO ROAD who will need the right trip and pace scenario for him to get over bridesmaid status of six combined seconds or thirds from 22 starts but he finds the right field this afternoon to get him over his tendency to finish second or third. He made his first start at Del Mar on opening day at this N3L class level where he caught the razor sharp front runner Julius in a highly rated event for the class level (86 Beyer Speed Figure). According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had one beat cantering on his own 11 lengths down, beginning his long march forward through foes with an inside path in the turn, sustaining his long effort to snatch 2nd late.” The early pace that Julius set as the uncontested leader was moderate according to the Moss Pace Figures (+2,+4) and the validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to win a Starter Allowance on August 2 with 86 Beyer Speed Figure and then ran second in Allowance N1X with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. This runner up effort gave his connections confidence to enter him in a Starter Allowance on August 15 and he ran into another highly rated event (86 Beyer Speed Figure) won the “Ship and Win” favored winner Pyron. In that race, he “lagged at the rear two-deep, passed the back markers outside around the far turn, four-wide for the drive, late gain, won the battle for the show.” He now drops back to N3L and returns with a half-mile maintenance work on August 27. He should get pace for his late run with morning line favorite Street Image going for the early lead stretching out a furlong from his last two starts and will get pressure from Octopus drawn outside of him. If that pace scenario materializes then I expect jockey Ricky Gonzalez to allow Tobacco Road to settle early and will grind away through the stretch to pick up the tiring leaders in the final furlong. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (7) TOBACCO ROAD at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #4 Street Image, #11 Red Valor. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: RAYMUNDOS SECRET (#8, 2-1)

With four victories on the turf, two off the board finishes, and making his second start off 293 day layoff and for trainer Phil D’Amato I see RAYMUNDOS SECRET only improving in her second race this year as the morning line favorite. The daughter of Treasure Beach two off the board finishes including in last year’s Del Mar Oaks was the result of this filly going too fast too soon. In her last start of 2019, Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes, the bay filly got caught in a vicious speed duel with 29-1 longshot Giza Goddness as those two opened up a 2 and 1-½ length lead on the rest of the field through fast fractions of 45.01 and 1:08.44 for the first six furlongs that were fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She remained in the battle with that rival all the way to mid stretch before finally giving way to finish fifth in a very good effort considering the fast pace set it up for the horses coming from off the pace as the first, third, and fourth place finishers rallied from sixth, seventh, and ninth after the first half mile as Giza Goddness and Raymundos Secret ran the two best races in that that race. She returned from a 293 day layoff in her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato in a Allowance N2X on August 14 and she made her four year old debut a winning one but her neck margin of victory is deceiving as was really only asked to run the last eighth of a mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “eased her way back to sit in the leader’s draft, looking primed in the turn, waiting for room in upper stretch, bulling her way out midstretch, kicking strongly to get up in the final stride.” The two parts of this victory that was impressive was she completed her final quarter of a mile in co fastest 23.34 seconds and did so against the race shape as the second and third place finishers ran first and second throughout and second part was she galloped out strongly after the wire towards the backstretch as this was a perfect prep for the stretch out to 1-⅛ of the Mabee. She is the leader in TimeformUS early pace ratings and should navigate the lead into the first lead with Flavien Prat remaining in the irons as the Southern California filly and mare turf division has taken turns in defeating each other this year. She comes into the race with impressive five furlong move on the turf course on August 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B stating “five furlongs over the sod with the dogs up, we had the final 1/2 of this work in 48.3, never asked at all, striding out well to the wire, a good work for the recent winner, who will likely surface in the Mabee closing weekend.” In the past five years on the turf course here at Del Mar in Graded Stakes, trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat have connected at gaudy 38% (13/5-2-0) and they look to continue that successful trend with Raymundos Secret as my second single on the Saturday Del Mar card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET at 8-5 or better. 

Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = $15 for a $3 Wager 

Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 2 = $5 for a $1 Wager. 

Race 11: TIZAMAGICIAN (#1, 8-1)

The morning line favorite Nolo Contesto has developed a bad case of finishing second. Since defeating the now retired and last year’s morning line favorite for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach, the son of Pioneer of the Nile has finished second in three subsequent fast main track events including his last two starts. In his last start on August 1 I could not find an excuse for his third second place finish behind his stablemate Shortlist. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran inside 4 lengths down, inching forward midrace, pushing forward 3-wide in the final turn, stalling out on the fading leader in the upper stretch, chasing on after the winner in the lane to earn a clear 2nd.” He ran third chasing the very fast pace speed duel between Rayray and Dreams of Valor who set fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+15,+5). Instead I prefer a horse that finished behind him in that same race that I expect to make the early lead in this race. TIZAMAGICIAN is a horse that has always promised more than he has delivered in his ten starts. The son of Tiznow has disappointed as the post time favorite in four occasions but I could find excuses for his two debacles on a fast main track where he will be overlooked in the finale. He returned from a 111 day layoff on May 22 at Santa Anita where he was bet down to the 7-5 post time favorite and from a trip standpoint one cannot find a real excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pushed the pace onto the backstretch, applied heavy pressure down the backstretch, could not go with the winner heading into the far turn, stayed on to midstretch, one-paced to the wire.” The excuses I found in this race are firstly the layoff and secondly the fast pace he pressed chasing or pressing the gate to wire winner Take the One O One as it earned above average Moss Pace Figures (+8,+3). I will a draw a line through his race in the Oceanside Stakes because it was the wrong surface and class level and he returned to the main track at this N1X class level and finished fifth beaten four lengths behind the rail skimming rally winner Shortlist but he had a tough trip that is not described in the Bid 4 wide, weakened comment in your past performances. According to Trip Notes Pro, he “Floated out on the 1st turn by #2, Nolo Contesto. Reach normally wouldn’t have been a big deal except it took him into the 6path and (3) rivals advanced up inside of him. Caught 4W (6deep) entire 1st turn and down the BS. Tugged along to advance 4W into the FT and almost made it to the lead. Began flattening out in the lane and had every excuse to stop running but give him extra credit for continuing to try to the wire. SNEAKY good gallop out.” He has come back with three workouts including a sharp three 59.3 five furlong move on August 26 followed by a maintenance three furlong blow out four days ago. He is drawn on the rail and gets Drayden Van Dyke in the irons for the first time and I expect him to be sent for the early lead as he and Mongolian Legend are the only entrants in this field with triple digit TimeformUS early pace ratings in this field. With aggressive tactics from the start, Tizamagician stands an excellent chance to spring the upset in the finale. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (1) TIZAMAGICIAN at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #3 Strongconstitution, #5 Ronamo, #6 Royal Act. Small reverse. 

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4

Race 8: (3) Dubby Dubbie, (4) Liberal, (5) Rocky Tough 

Race 9: (4) Street Image, (7) TOBACCO ROAD, (11) Red Valor 

Race 10: (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET 

Race 11: (1) Tizamagician, (3) Strongconstitution, (5) Ronamo, (6) Royal Act

Main Ticket: 3,4,5 with 7 with 8 with 1,3,5,6 = 3 x 1 x 1 x 4 x $2 = $24 

Ticket 1: 3,4,5 with 4,11 with 8 with 1,3,5,6  = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24 

Total Wager: $48  

 

Silardi Returns to His Preferred Trip in Competitive Turf Sprint Allowance

 Race 5: STARSHIP CHEWBACA (#2, 8-1) 

Going into his career debut, there are reasons to understand why STARSHIP CHEWBACA was sent off at $114.30-1 in his first start on July 24 at Del Mar. He is trained by Howard Zucker who was winless in seven starts with first time starters making their debut in maiden claiming dirt sprints in the past five years. His pedigree is just ordinary out of the Danzig stallion U.S. Ranger who was Group 1 placed in the Darley July Cup and Prix de la Foret as a four year old and as stallion has produced 11% winners. She is by the dam Visual Threat who has produced seven starters with four winners including Visual Intensity (5-for-15) and Native Treasure (10-for-52). He was training towards his debut in below average fashion as National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented about his five furlong move in 1:01 ⅘ on July 15 with the comment “struggled under pressure while asked out in 35.4, 48.3, 101.4 Dullsville.” With all these factors a handicapper can throw out this gelding chances in his first start and when the dust settled Starship Chewbaca ran a very good race in defeat to finish fourth earning respectable 64 Beyer Speed Figure where with any improvement in his second career start could see him challenging for the win in this average $50,000 maiden claiming event where the horses dropping from maiden special weight to this class level for the first time do not scare anyone. According to the Handicapper’s Trip Notes, he was “smacked hard at the start, fighting between foes for the front, driving hard from the turn, fighting on in the stretch for 3rd, yielding late.” The early pace he challenged in that debut was a respectable one that was close to par for this class level and he defeated more than half the field to the wire in a race where he missed third by less than a length. This was a good effort by the longest shot on the tote board and he can “definetly move forward in a barn not known for their early success,” suggested by the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. He has returned with four workouts over Del Mar maintrack and none caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington attention including his penultimate move on August 21 a half mile spin in 51 flat that he gave a C commenting “Struggled home in 24.3, 51.3 running uphill under some coaxing. Nothing of note.” In this case, I am going to dismiss all the workout information because of what this bay gelding showed in his only start. Hustling rider Agapito Delgadillo gets in the irons for the first time and he along with eight start trial maiden Endless Tale are the main early speed in this field and he should be right on top of the pace and as mentioned before with any improvement can land him in the winner’s circle to close out the early Pick 5 at a generous price as the both morning line favorites are just ordinary. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (2) STARSHIP CHEWBACA at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #6 Colt Fiction, #9 Hollywood’s Best. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: AIR JOCKEY (#12, 12-1)

The two morning line favorites are ones I look to beat on the win end but their bridesmaid statuses make them ideal candidates to use in the second slot of the exacta. The morning line favorite Poise to Strike has run second in his last three starts and last time was in a ideal spot stalking two horse speed duel between Endless Tale and today’s rival U.S. Danger but when the real running began at the top of the stretch he offered no punch getting past by eventual winner Bedrock who rallied from fifth and barely held second over the pace rival Endless Tale. The second choice Most Sandisfactory exits a fifth place finish sprinting on the turf versus open maiden special weight and returns to maiden claiming company where he has finished second in four fast main track events. Instead I am going to prefer a horse that has had only one race for a maiden claiming tag in his career AIR JOCKEY showed signs of ability in his first two starts finishing third and then went off form in his last two starts as a four year old. He returned from a 203 day layoff as a five year old on May 5, 2019 in a one mile turf event and he finished tenth and last in a race I will draw a line through because of distance and surface did not suit him plus the extended break would suggest he was going to need a race. The son of Cyclotron returned off a 448 day layoff and dropped for a claiming tag for the first time on July 26 in a dirt sprint and finished sixth splitting the field beaten nine lengths won by Big Cheddar who earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure that is above par for this class level and indicates this was a better than average $20,000 claiming race (67 Beyer par). According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “worked to midfield along the inside, kept moving forward past the half-mile pole, raced into traffic, in a bit tight between horses, tapped on the brakes, failed to re-engage when clear, ran in place to the wire.” Not only was Air Jockey was going to need this race off more than a year layoff but he was attempting to stalk and pounce over a main track that featured a strong outside/speed bias and this gelding was stuck on the slower inside part of the main track attempting to rally behind a slow early pace won by the pace pressing winner. The Karen Headley trainee now makes his second start off the long layoff and goes from the rail to the outermost post position eleven in an eleven horse field with the addition of blinkers for the first time. He has returned with three workouts including a visually impressive five furlong move in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating “Best drill to date breezing late after showing speed in 100.1. Big move in here.” Ruben Fuentes remains in the irons and with his outside draw and new blinkers I expect an improved effort that is good enough to spring the upset to start the late Pick 4. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (12) AIR JOCKEY at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #12 with #3 Poise to Strike, #6 Most Sandisfactory. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (12) AIR JOCKEY with (5) SILARDI, (6) BRICKYARD RIDE, (8) THANKS MR. EIDSON. 

Race 9: SILARDI (#5, 12-1)

The tepid morning line favorite, Devil Made Me Do It, returns off a 246 day layoff where he broke his maiden on opening day of the winter Santa Anita meet under ideal circumstances versus a sub-par field. He established a pressured early pace through slow fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (-6,0) and kicked away in a race where the slow early pace resulted in the first four finishers ran first, second, third, and fourth at every call and the five horses that returned from that race are a combined 15/0-1-3 since that race. The second choice and the most likely pacesetter Brickyard Ride is one of the fastest horses on this circuit as he set a kamikaze early pace as the beaten favorite on July 31, led to the eighth pole, and was collared by the off the pace runners in a race that saw the first two finishers rally from eighth and third early. He will face pace pressure or run faster than normal with Devil Made Me Do It and Cruel Intentions in this field. The horse that can get an ideal stalk and pounce trip and is competitive on speed figures is SILARDI who exits a last place finish on August 2 but I can find excuses for his last two starts. In that aforementioned start he lost all chance when he fell to his knees at the start behind the impressive gate to wire Microrithms who returned to win again on August 29. On opening day he flashed speed to set a pressured pace in the one-mile Oceanside Stakes on turf and weakened badly to finish ninth at a distance that did not suit him. He is a turf sprinting specialist as he is undefeated in two starts sprinting on the turf including his maiden win on May 23 where he defeated five next out winners including sixth place finisher Vertical Threat who recently won the Smiling Tiger Stakes and will run next in the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby undercard. He faced winners for the first time at this class level on June 20 and emerged victorious earning 86 Beyer Speed Figure that matches Brickyard Ride’s speed figure on that same card. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “stalked the pace three-deep, loomed boldly four-wide past the quarter-pole, laid in repeatedly to midstretch, changed leads, dove late, up in time.” This was not a strong race as it produced one runner-up effort and five off the board finishes but he showed the ability to sit off the pace and finish and that style will be on display in this field with Brickyard Ride the field’s pacesetter. He returns to the class level of that victory but is in for the $40,000 claiming price and is reunited with Ruben Fuentas who was aboard for that ninth place finish on opening day but that was around two turns and this is a sprint and in the past year he has connected at 29% (7-for-24) with trainer Peter Miller. The bay gelding by City Zip should tucked into a perfect stalking trip in third and produce a late kick similar to his June 20 victory at a generous price. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) SILARDI at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #6 Brickyard Ride, #8 Thanks Mr. Eidson. Small reverse for each. 

Race 11: DISAPPEARING ACT (#8, 8-1)

I have two strong notes in the finale and it concerns horses that exit the July 11 and August 8 turf maiden events. The note for both fields is to throw out the horses exiting those events. In the July 11 turf route won by Resarcio the first seven horses were separated by only four lengths at the wire and from the eight horses that returned it has produced one runner-up effort and seven off the board finishes. That will eliminate two of the entrants in this field, Vegas Palm and Nurse Goodbody. Six of the entrants in today’s field exit the August 8 maiden race won by Noble Hearted where the first nine horses were separated by only three lengths at the wire and visual impression was matched by the below average 70 Beyer Speed Figure (Beyer par 76). That race has produced one winner and one runner-up effort from three starters to run back but those two horses shipped to Golden Gate and the one winner earned a 66 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in her maiden victory. I wanted a fresh face and landed on DISAPPEARING ACT who makes her first start off a 309 day layoff and is bred to adore routing on the turf being by Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician. She made her career debut on September 1 sprinting on the turf at Woodbine where she was not quick from the gate and settled in the two path between rivals down the backstretch, remained in the same spot around the far turn behind rivals, angled four wide at mid-stretch, and closed well under her own power behind the loose on the lead winner Egyptian Nights who set a slow pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and defeated two next out winners in Cool Shadows and Roman D’Oro who earned Beyer Speed Figures of 68 (four point improvement) and 67 (ten point improvement) respectively. She was bet down to the 4-5 favorite in her first start on the Poly Track on October 26 and did not have the cleanest of trips being forced to race wide throughout and chased a fast pace set by the eventual runner up and next out winner Mustn’t Grumble and weakened to ninth defeating one horse to the wire. I am going to draw a line through that race because of the trip and surface. She will make her first start for trainer Richard Baltas off a layoff of 309 days and this barn is proficient with returnees going long on the turf. Bob and Jackie (July 11, 2020, $8.20-1), Desert Stone (January 4, 2020, $7.10-1), Shadow Sphinx (June 20, 2020, $1.80-1), and Peace Pipe (June 19, 2020, $17.00-1) all returned from layoffs between 196 to 510 days and won off the long layoff a pattern that Disappearing Act will attempt to follow. She has recorded nine workouts from June 23 at San Luis Rey Downs and gets top rider Abel Cedillo in the irons. At a price for a trainer that does well with turf comebackers, bred for the trip, and a fresh face in a field where the ones that have run are below average, Disappearing Act can score the upset in the finale. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (8) DISAPPEARING ACT at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #6 Acoustic Shadow, #11 Awesome Ella. Small reverse for each.