Garth Looks to Fulfill His Promise in Del Mar Futurity

BEST BET for September 2, 2019: ULTIMATE BANGO (Race 6, 8-1)

MULTI-RACE PLAYS

Daily Double Race 9: 

5 with 2,8 = 1 x 2 x $20 = $40 

6 with 2,8 = 1 x 2 x $10 = $20 

Total Wager: $60   

Race 4: (6) ULTIMATE BANGO

I will be including the two morning line favorites underneath in my wagers but I am leaving out the third choice on the morning line RONALD R who returned from a 434-day layoff on July 20 and posted 13-1 upset on a day when his trainer Ron Ellis had two winners both at double digit prices. The son of Nathaniel received an excellent ride from jockey Drayden Van Dyke and perfect pace setup. In that race, he trailed saving ground through the first half mile behind the uncontested leader Snazzy Dresser as he opened up a three-length lead after a half mile in 45.94 fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figure. He saved ground into the far turn, angled outside for the stretch drive, and rallied to wear down the battling leaders Factorial, Battle of Memphis, and tiring Snazzy Dresser to win by one-length to earn career best 93 Beyer Speed Figure and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of that race was confirmed when third and fifth-place finishers came back to win. He returns in his second start of the meet and will have to stretch out additional eighth of a mile and there is not a plethora of early speed in this field with Dr. Troutman in this field and RONALD R has not looked as good in the morning reported by National Turf’s Andy Harrington. I will look for a horse that can be forwardly placed and exits a better than looked effort in one of the fastest early paces on the turf this meet. 

With Dr. Troutman the field’s confirmed pacesetter, I expect ULTIMATE BANGO to be the horse to get the first run on the stalkers and closers and he will be positioned second early and will wait to pounce. The California-bred son of Uh Oh Bango has won twice at one-mile on the turf and his most recent victory was a perfect trip victory on June 8 at Santa Anita. In that race, the Blake Heap trainee navigated to the rail to the first turn and saved ground as the uncontested leader Factorial set blazing fractions that saw the half mile and six furlongs fractions coded red by TimeformUS. He continued to save ground on the far turn, angled outside for a clear run into the stretch, and kicked clear to win by 2-½ lengths to earn a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and then career best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was eligible for the Allowance N2X at this same distance on opening day but his connections decided to go for the larger purse and run against California breds in the California Dreamin Stakes on July 26 at 1-1/16 and he ran a deceptive good race in defeat splitting the field after being forced to chase one of the fastest early paces this meet on the turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide leaving the chute and was three wide into the first turn before stalking the pacesetter What A View in the two-path between rivals on the backstretch and he chased a torrid pace as the half mile and six furlongs fractions coded red by TimeformUS. He began to be in drive midway on the far turn as What A View kicked clear from the rest of the field but ULTIMATE BANGO never quit in the stretch running evenly towards the wire to miss fourth by a half-length to the opportunistic closer Hard Boot. He earned a career best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure in defeat and the form of that fast early pace was flattered when Acclimate who chased that pace returned on Pacific Classic day to win the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap earning 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure. ULTIMATE BANGO will now stretch out additional sixteenth of a mile but finds no rivals with the type of early speed that What A View has and should either be stalking Dr. Troutman or sitting off a more relaxed early pace scenario. He has come back with three workouts capped off by five furlong move in 1:02 2⁄5 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Full of run home then galloped big in 37.0, 101.3 oy in 114.1. On edge; better than last.” Ruben Fuentas remains in the irons and he will be grossly overlooked at what should be a juicy price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (6) ULTIMATE BANGO at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-5. Small reverse for each. 

Race 9: (5) GARTH

The last Grade 1 event of the Del Mar season is the Del Mar Futurity where Bob Baffert will go for fifteenth victory in this race and sends out morning line favorite EIGHT RINGS who comes off 6-¼ length victory in his career debut earning second fastest two-year old 94 Beyer Speed Figure of 2019 and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of that race was flattered when the runner-up Express Train returned to break his maiden with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. From all points, he looks like a standout but I believe he will suffer his first defeat in this event based on trip and pace. In his debut, he sat absolute perfect pace pressing trip. He was parked three wide in the clear pressing two dueling leaders Shooters Shoot and Phast Pharoah through moderate fractions. He made the winning move with a three wide rush to take over the lead into the stretch and kicked clear. Where he breaks today and the likely pace scenario will compromise his chances. A fast pace is likely with Storm the Court from the inside going for the lead along with Fore Left, Nucky, and recent maiden winner Ginobili making this race have faster than average early fractions. If that scenario happens just as it did in last Saturday’s Del Mar Debutante then this race is primed to set-up for horse coming from off the pace and I was waiting for this colt to show up in this race after his better than looked debut effort where he lost as the overwhelming favorite. 

There was a lot to like about GARTH into his career debut on August 10 where he was sent off as the 1-5 post time favorite. Firstly, his pedigree he is by the outstanding sire Into Mischief out of the mare Country Star who won the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet as a two-year old for the late trainer Bobby Frankel. Secondly, this home bred had worked in splendid fashion according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with three consecutive B+ moves including a team drill with today’s morning line favorite Eight Rings on July 25 where he stated “Big speed with next out winner Eight Rings waiting in 24.4 finishing out with power in 48.0, 100.4. Much to like.” Thirdly, he was trained by Bob Baffert who earlier in the meet sent out Eight Rings to break his maiden in his career debut but also another progeny of Into Mischief, Immediate Impact, broke her maiden in her debut as well. With these factors he was bet as if he could not lose his first start. However, he failed to live up to his advance billing finishing second as the beaten favorite but I look at this race as educational run because he experienced what really happens during a real race in the afternoon. He was a step slow when he bobbled leaving the gate from post position one, he rushed up quickly and settled behind dueling leaders on the backstretch, split rivals on the far turn and loomed outside of the eventual winner Storm the Court to poke a head in front at mid-stretch but the slow start, rush up to get into contention, and move to split rivals on the far turn all caught up to GARTH as he flattened out on his run and he finished 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field in a respectable performance where he can improve in his second career start. He now adds the blinkers and is being placed in a Grade 1 in a similar profile as the Bob Baffert trained Best last Saturday in the Debutante. Moreover, he continues to thrive in the mornings for the Futurity with consecutive B+ according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a six furlong move in 1:13 3⁄5 that he stated “Improving sort was tons the best over Ragtime Blues going out solo in this strong and relaxed move. Getting better.” With Fore Left, Nucky, and recent maiden winner Ginobili vying for the lead through faster than average fractions, I expect GARTH to break cleanly and patiently bide his time behind this leading trio and when it is time to push button jockey Mike Smith can blow by the leaders in the stretch to score the mild upset in the last Grade 1 of the meet. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) GARTH at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta: 5-6. Small reverse. 

Small Exacta: 5-8. No reverse. 

Race 10: (8) PAKHET 

The final race of the meet brings competitive field of ten three year old fillies and I am playing against KHAIRYA who is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line. The three-year old Twirling Candy filly won only once on the turf and that win was last time on August 1 where he encountered ideal race set up to win by 1-¼ lengths earning career best 76 Beyer Speed Figure and 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That victory was the result of absolute pace meltdown as the three leaders Creative Romance, D’Tatway, and Muthhlia set faster than average early fractions with opening quarter, half-mile and six furlong fractions were coded red by TimeformUS that resulted in those three leaders after a half mile finished fourth, fifth, and eighth and the first three finishers rallied from seventh, sixth, and ninth after the first half mile. There is clear pacesetter in this field in Courteous but I do not feel this race will have the same pace setup as KHAIRYA encountered in that victory and I will throw out this Phil D’Amato trainee from my wagers. 

Trainer Mike McCarthy has had Del Mar meet to forget with only one victory from thirty six starters but PAKHET can give his barn that much needed victory on the final race of the meet. The daughter of Cairo Prince raced greenly and erractally in her career debut when she finished second only to be disqualified. She came back to break her maiden in her second start and stepped up in class to face winners for the first time in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland on October 10, 2018 and she ran a respectable second behind the leading North American three-year old top filly Concrete Rose. In that race, the former Todd Pletcher trainee raced off the rail in the two path around the first turn and down the backstretch stalking the loose leader in midpack. She angled three paths off the rail on the far turn and was hard urged to keep her position as the winner Concrete Rose saved ground. As the field reached the top of the stretch, she was parked six wide into the stretch and rallied to grab second while no match the perfect trip winner. This runner-up performance encouraged her connections to enter her in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was parked four to five wide into the first turn and continued to race that wide down the backstretch. She was hard urged while parked wide around the far turn and gave way to the wire finishing eleventh beaten 15-½ lengths. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf turned out to be one of the most productive juvenile events of 2018 as fifth, sixth, and eighth-place finishers returned to win such events as the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes (The Mackem Bullet) and Grade 3 Florida Oaks, Grade 2 Edgewood, and Grade 1 Belmont Oaks (Concrete Rose). PAKHET made her first start for trainer Mike McCarthy on July 19 where she did not have the smoothest of trip in her first start off a 259 day layoff. In that race, she was able to race in between rivals through the first six furlongs then she caught in traffic approaching the quarter pole as she had to shuffle towards the rear of the field into the stretch, re-rallied and past tired rivals to be seventh. She has come back with four workouts capped off by a B- move on August 25 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Best outside barnmate The Stiff going 36.1, 101.0 appearing willing all the way. Should move forward.” Under new rider Florent Geroux she can good spot tracking what should be crowded front end in mid pack and pounce to close the meet at generous price. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) PAKHET at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exactas: 8-2. Small reverse. 

Small Exacta: 8-9. No reverse. 

Moody Jim Is Ready for the Spotlight in Del Mar Derby

BEST BET for September 1, 2019: MOODY JIM (Race 9, 5-1).

MULTI-RACE PLAYS

Race 6 Pick 5

6,8/1/4,7,10/8/6,8,9 = $18 for a $1 Wager

6,8/2/4,7,10/8/6,8,9 = $9 for a $0.50 Wager

6,8/1/9/8/6,8,9         = $3 for a $0.50 Wager

Total Pick 5 Wager: $30

Race 7 Pick 3

1 / 4,7,10 / 8 = $15 for a $5 Wager

Race 8 Double

4,7,10 / 8 = $30 for a $10 Wager

Race 5: (8) COOL RUNNINGS

The morning line favorite is K.P. INDY who finished a fast closing second behind Del Mar Juvenile Turf favorite Encoder on August 7. The son of Competitive Edge had saved ground through the first three furlongs of that five furlong event, was taken to the outside for a clear run in the stretch and delivered a strong late kick and galloped out strongly after the wire like a horse that will appreciate two turns. However, there are three main knocks I find with this Jeff Mullins trainee. Firstly, his sire Competitive Edge in his first crop has produced nine winners but ZERO have won on the turf with all of them sprinting on the main track and the dam of K.P. Indy was a dirt sprinter. Secondly, there is no guarantee that if a horse closing from off the pace will produce that form routing on the turf and thirdly he will be a short price routing on the turf for the first time. With his sire’s lack of success with his progeny routing on the turf and short price of KP Indy routing on the turf for the first time I will look to beat him with another colt by freshman sire standing at Coolmore America.

He only cost $60,000 at the Keeneland September 2018 which is lower than his stallions stud fee of $250,000 but COOL RUNNINGS received a lot of support in his career debut on July 28 at today’s distance on the turf. Although his sire American Pharoah won the 2015 Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Classic all on the main track, he has produced SEVEN turf winners in his first crop including Group 3 winner Maven, Skidmore Stakes winner Another Miracle, and Group 1 placed Monarch of Egypt indicating that Cool Runnings would handle the turf. He had not trained well leading up to his career debut with a pair of C workouts including a 1:00.4 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Under a good late ask in this set of three for the Desormeaux barn. Like to see an outing.” Despite his poor workouts and his dam’s lack of his produce winning on the turf, he was bet down to the 6-1 third choice and he outrun his workouts to produce a winning race in defeat only to be run down by Hit the Road who produced the last run to catch his rival. In that race, Keith Desormeaux trainee relaxed nicely off the pace early biding his time in the rear with the eventual winner Hit the Road who saved ground for the first half-mile and Cool Runnings was in the two-path. The difference of the two horses occured on the far turn when Cool Runnings unleashed four wide move on the far turn and into the stretch to go for the lead pass mid-stretch only to be run down by Hit the Road to lose by 1-¼ lengths but finished 1-½ lengths ahead of the rest of the field. Although the race only earned a sub-par 57 Beyer Speed Figure and 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure the distance between first and second place finish suggest this was a quality victory and that four wide move on the far turn resulted in Cool Runnings covering 44 feet more than the winner which is estimated four lengths of ground lost. He has come back with three workouts five furlong move in 1:01 ⅖ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Coming to hand very well while tracking and running away from barnmate Gorky Park in 35.4, 1:01.2. Getting better.” He should move forward in his second start and continue in the trend of his sire’s success with turf starters in his first crop.

Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) COOL RUNNINGS at 2-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 8-6. Small Reverse.
Small Exacta: 8-3. No reverse.

Race 7: (1) FORAY

The morning line favorite in this Allowance N1X with Optional Claiming price of $40,000 is DOUBLE TOUCH who exits a sixth and ninth place finishes in the Wickker and Del Mar Mile respectively and now he is being reeled back in only fourteen days with sales price of $40,000. This should be a huge negative for horseplayers for several reasons. Firstly, this quick turnaround is rare for this gelding as he traditionally four to six weeks between races and being entered in this race suggest his connections just want to race him and hope someone claims him. Second, he failed to be competitive in his two starts here at Del Mar as he was in prime striking position in the Wickker Handicap on July 21 pressing gate to wire Bombard and threw in the towel quickly to be sixth and although he was wide in the Del Mar Mile on August 18 he never mounted a serious rally passing only one rival to finish ninth. Also, there is not a lot of early speed in this field and that will compromise his stalking style but only help a specific horse who will benefit from the likely moderate early pace race shape in this field.

The lack of early speed will only benefit FORAY whose form prior to his mid-pack finish at this class level strongly suggest that if he can duplicate the type of trips he had on the lead in this event he will be strictly the one they must reel in. He accomplished his first of his two victories this year on April 5 where he was loose on an uncontested early lead through very slow early fractions with the half mile and six furlongs fractions coded blue by TimeformUS and kicked clear earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure and form of that race was validated when the seventh and eighth place finishers returned to win earning improved 80 and 79 Beyer Speed Figures and 97 and 99 TimeformUS Speed Figures respectively. He stepped up to face Starter Allowance rivals and he delivered another impressive performance duplicating his 88 Beyer Speed Figure and earning career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race, he sped to the lead and was hounded through fast fractions over a glib turf course by Mongolian Gray Wolf, shook free of that pace rival pass the quarter pole, opened up a length and half lead pass mid-stretch and safely held off the late bid of North County Guy to win by a half-length. Although the surface and distance favored forwardly placed runners, this returned to be a very productive race with the third through fifth place finishers returning to win earning 86, 85, and 80 Beyer Speed Figures and 108, 107, and 100 TimeformUS Speed Figures respectively. Included in that list of next out winners was Acclimate who won Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano and Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap in two of his next four starts. He stepped up to this class level on July 20 at this one-mile trip and he managed to run evenly to split the field but this effort was the result of pace. He was not able to make the early lead because Snazzy Dresser was gunned for the early lead by jockey Edwin Maldonado and that rival set a very fast early pace that Foray chased including half mile fraction coded by red by TimeformUS. This fast pace resulted in a pace meltdown as the first three finishers rallied from ninth, sixth, and seventh after the first half mile. He has bounced back with four workouts for his return including his August 11 and August 18 moves graded B by National Turf Andy Harrington and in that latter move he “Again liked the way this one relaxed (had been a tad keen in the past) breezing solo late for the Sadler barn. Feeling good.” After being forced to chase the very quick Snazzy Dresser last time, he does not find a rival with his type of early speed in this field and jockey Jorge Velez who with his apprentice gets five to seven pound weight allowance from the rest of the field will place this gelding on the lead with only Wound Tight the other pace in this field and when Foray has lead after the first call in two starts this year he is perfect two for two and I look for him to score his third win in 2019 with a similar trip.

Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) FORAY at 3-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 1-2, 1-6. Small reverse for each.

Race 9: (8) MOODY JIM (IRE)

The morning line favorite in the feature Del Mar Derby is NEPTUNE’S STORM who exits a runner-up performance behind the uncontested gate to wire KINGLY in the La Jolla Handicap twenty-eight days ago. A closer inspection of his form this year reveals that this son of Stormy Atlantic is no standout. He enjoyed a perfect pace pressing trip on April 28 in the Singletary Stakes and in the Cinema Stakes one month later at today’s 1-⅛ miles distance he enjoyed not only another pace pressing trip but found himself pressing very slow early fractions that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Today’s Del Mar Derby will not have KINGLY in this field but also the maiden PARISOMY who lead at every step except the wire on the undercard of the Pacific Classic program can flash speed making this an honest pace for the horses coming from off the pace.

The Jeff Mullins trained MOODY JIM did not make his debut as a two-year old and made his belated racing debut on May 10 in Ireland at Cork where he finished excellent third in a twelve horse field where the Timeform European analyst commented “made an encouraging start to career; mid-division, headway when switched over 2f out, headway approaching final 1f, no extra final 100 yards; should improve.” The race proved to be productive as the runner-up, Balefire, returned to break his maiden in his next start and went on to a Listed Handicap in his most recent start. He was privately purchased Red Baron’s Barn LLC and Rancho Temescal LLC and made his first start for trainer Jeff Mullins at Churchill Downs on June 29 where he overcame a less than ideal start to finish a better than looked fourth. In that race, he bobbled sharply at the break recovered to trail the field on the rail for the first half mile, moved up along the rail on the far turn, split rivals into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire to beat more than half the field. His late rally looks even better when you consider the winner He’s Stylish was able make an uncontested lead through very slow early fractions that earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He made his Del Mar debut on July 27 where he received a perfect ride from today’s jockey Drayden Van Dyke where he flashed a terrific turn of foot defeating quality field. In that race, he navigated towards the rail into the first turn and saved ground as the longshot leader The Longest Night navigated through very slow early fractions as the half mile and six furlong fractions were coded blue by TimeformUS. Despite this disadvantegous race shape, he swung towards the outside pass the quarter pole and delivered excellent flash of late speed to sweep past the leader Mo Forza to win by comfortable half-length earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure and 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of this race was validated when Succeed and Surpass and Parisomny returned to finish first and second in their next start with 85 and 84 Beyer Speed Figure respectively and Mo Forza the runner-up returned two starts later on August 31 to run second beaten a nose in Allowance N1X. MOODY JIM completed his final five-sixteenths in a sharp 28.06 seconds that indicates the extra sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue for this son of Moohaajim. He has returned with four workouts over the Del Mar turf course including the rare A- from National Turf Andy Harrington on August 25 where he stated “Really stepping things up big time rolling home like a quality type in 37.3, 100.4 (23.1 LQ) with Drayden up. Gets better and better.” Drayden Van Dyke who rode the morning line favorite Neptune’s Storm in his previous three starts choose this Jeff Mullins trainee over him speaks volumes on how highly regarded this colt is and with only two starts in North America he has plenty of blue sky ahead of him and his late kick will be flattered by an honest pace among Neptune’s Storm, Kingly, and Parisomny. At 5/1 on the morning line he is my BEST BET of the MEET.

Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) MOODY JIM at 5-2 or better*
Main Exacta: 8-4. Small Reverse.
Small Exacta: 8-3. No reverse.

*If we our live in our suggested Pick 3 and Daily Double bets into the 9th no WIN bet is necessary.

Chief Cicatriz Looks to Continue Winning Ways in Bing Crosby

BEST BET for July 27: VELVET QUEEN (Race 7, 4-1). 

MULTI-RACE PLAY Race 1 Pick 5 

Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 3, 7 / 2 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $36 for a $1 Wager 

Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 1, 5 / 2 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $18 for a $0.50 Wager 

Pick 5: 1, 2, 5 / 3, 7 / 1 / 6, 8 / 4, 6, 10 = $18 for a $0.50 Wager

Total Pick 5: $72 

Race 2: (3) MOODY JIM (IRE) 

The morning line favorite in the second leg of the early Pick 5 is PARSIMONY who is winless in thirteen starts and three of those defeats were on the turf where blew a clear lead into the stretch as the 8-5 favorite on May 25 and was run down by the stretch running Proud Pedro. In his most recent turf start, he was wide throughout behind the uncontested gate to wire City Rage but despite the trip and race shape, today’s rival MO FORZA out finished him to the wire for second. He is the type of favorite I want to defeat in multi-race bets such as the early Pick 5 and thankfully there is an excellent alternative. 

The Jeff Mullins trained MOODY JIM did not make his debut as a two-year old and made his belated racing debut on May 10 in Ireland at Cork where he finished excellent third in a twelve horse field where the Timeform European analyst commented “made an encouraging start to career; mid-division, headway when switched over 2f out, headway approaching final 1f, no extra final 100 yards; should improve.” The race proved to be productive as the runner-up, Balefire, returned to break his maiden in his next start and went on to a Listed Handicap in his most recent start. He was privately purchased Red Baron’s Barn LLC and Rancho Temescal LLC and made his first start for trainer Jeff Mullins at Churchill Downs on June 29 where he overcame a less than ideal start to finish a better than looked fourth. In that race, he bobbled bobbled sharply at the break recovered to trail the field on the rail for the first half mile, moved up along the rail on the far turn, split rivals into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire to beat more than half the field. His late rally looks even better when you consider the winner He’s Stylish was able make an uncontested lead through very slow early fractions that earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He makes his second start for his connections in his first start at Del Mar making MOODY JIM qualify for the ship and win program and prepared for this event with half mile spin in 50 seconds on July 22 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Nice power with Drayden aboard going the 4f in 24.1, 48.4. Plenty of upside here,” giving that move a B. The Phil D’Amato trainee THE LONGEST NIGHT appears to have the early speed to make the early lead and I expect with a clear start that MOODY JIM to stalk that rival in mid-pack and from post position three with first time Drayden Van Dyke he should blast home with clear sailing getting the jump on second preference MO FORZA at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (3) MOODY JIM at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta: 3-7. Small reverse. 

Small Exactas: 3-1, 3-5. No reverse. 

Race 4: (8) GHOST STREET

I have respect for the morning line favorite HACKBERRY as he will be used in my early Pick 5 but I will be playing against the second choice MUSIC TO MY EARS who I believe the distance mile and a sixteenth is beyond his distance limitations. He made his only turf start on May 11 at Santa Anita going five furlongs where he flashed excellent early zip to set a pressured pace in a five horse speed duel, put away four of his pace rivals away into the stretch, was tackled by the eventual winner Nesbitt at mid-stretch, and refused to yield easily finishing second. He switched to the main track on June 1 where he pressed a moderate early pace between the two favorites King Jack and Morning Snow and the son of Goldencents stayed with them all the way to the top of the stretch where he was out run and finished a clear third in a race where the winner King Jack and runner-up Morning Snow returned to win earning improved TimeformUS Speed Figures of 114 and 108 for a seven and four point improvement respectively. Now he stretches out and finds additional pace from STILL IN THE GAME and without much pedigree for this surface and stretch out, MUSIC TO MY EARS is a play against. 

He will be making his first start on turf and around two turns, but GHOST STREET is bred to adore both as this son of Ghostzapper ran like a horse in his debut on June 23 that will love more ground. The Patrick Gallagher trainee was bet down 9-2 second choice behind the post time favored winner Morning Snow even though his pedigree was geared towards running long on the grass. His dam, Heat Street, produced eight-time turf route winner Miss Boom Boom who earned a career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure on that surface and route of ground. Although trainer Patrick Gallagher is not known for his prowess with first time starters (27 TimeformUS trainer rating), GHOST STREET received plenty of attention because of his morning workouts. He had a B+ and B moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a three furlong gate move in 36 ⅗ on June 16 that Andy gave a B stating “Broke fine then was galloping along here in this easy spin always under some restraint in 36.1. Handy traveler.” In his career debut, GHOST STREET broke fine stalked in mudpack between rivals behind moderate, made a small move splitting rivals on the turn, angled out, and ran evenly finishing fifth. There was very little positional movement in this sprint as the first four finishers ran 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd at each call. With that race under his belt, this bay colt will now stretch out to two turns on the turf a surface his pedigree indicates he will adore and bounced back with a five furlong move in 1:01⅖ on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Nice stride out late while going away from Fusion Illusion rider pointing this one along with a 24.3, 49.0 last 4f. There is upside here.” In his only his second career start, he should be in the first flight on stretch out and pounce at what should be a generous price considering his poor effort in his only start. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (8) GHOST STREET

Main Exacta: 8-6. Small reverse. 

Small Exactas: 8-1, 8-3. No reverse. 

Race 7: (7) VELVET QUEEN 

With the exception of being a short price and trying a route of ground for the first time, I have no other negatives against morning line favorite GREAT RETURN but I do need to mention the track profile so far this meet at 1-mile on the turf here at Del Mar. Through the conclusion of Friday’s program, there have been 10 races run at this distance, 3 were won by horses on the lead after the first call and 4 were won by horses that had the lead at the second call or the quarter pole. One horse figures to benefit from that track profile and has run much better than her running line would suggest in her two starts at this 1-mile distance. 

VELVET QUEEN comes into this race with a 4th and 3rd in two starts at today’s 1-mile distance on turf but I believed that she ran the best race in each of those defeats that she went immediately on my horses to watch list as this daughter of Animal Kingdom ran too good to lose in each start. After she broke her maiden in her debut down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, she stretched out to one-mile on turf for the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes and she ran a whole lot better than her 3-¾ length margin of defeat would indicate. The Richard Baltas trainee hopped at the start to be away one length slow at start, parked four wide into the first turn and down the backstretch stalking a quick pace set by Courteous early. She launched a four wide move to challenge the leader around the far turn into the teeth of a very hot pace noted by red TimeformUS pace figure for six furlongs, stayed outside of the leader into the stretch, and flattened out the final eighth of a mile losing third to opportunistic closer Pivottina. At no point did her rider try to save ground with VELVET QUEEN throughout and Trakus backs up the wide journey as she ran 36ft, 65ft, and 37ft more than the first three finishers and based the amount of ground she lost she ran much better than the winner Elsa did in that stakes event. She would lose her next two starts on the cut back to turf sprints, she finished badly beaten third at 6-5 in the Allowance race on January 21 and at 7-5 in another Allowance race in her three-year old debut off 116-day hiatus. It was not until she stretched out to this 1-mile distance again on June 16 that she delivered another winning performance in defeat earning the field’s top last race 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and she earned it under less than ideal circumstances. In that race, she was used up early to establish the early lead into the first turn and down the backstretch and out sprinted the very quick Ellie Arroway as she covered opening quarter in blazing 21.99 and half mile in 45.48 seconds. Despite this torrid pace, she continued to lead after six furlongs in 1:09.77 and stayed on gamely to lead to the final furlong when she was overtaken by the opportunistic favored stalking winner Mucho Unusual and weaken to be third. It’s not surprising that the fractions through the first six furlongs were coded red by TimeformUS and the strength of this Allowance victory has already been confirmed. The winner took advantage of another pace meltdown to the Grade 2 San Clemente on July 20 with a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure four points lower than Allowance win and the last place finisher Strike at Dawn won Allowance race on July 19 with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. VELVET QUEEN remains at her ideal distance and finds a field not loaded with the type of her early speed she encountered last time out. She returned with an easy five furlong move in 1:00⅘ on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Fine enough here rider down in the saddle to the line for the Baltas barn. Traveling smooth enough,” for this B- move. More importantly, she will make the early lead and if she can avoid running extremely wide like she did in her previous start over this turf course or running extremely fast early such as last time then VELVET QUEEN should encounter ideal circumstances on the front end over a track profile that favors her running style as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (7) VELVET QUEEN at 2-1 or better. 

Main Exactas: 7-1, 7-9. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: 7 with 3, 6 

Race 8: (6) CHIEF CICATRIZ

With rivals such as CALEXMAN and CISTRON in this field, the pace of this year’s Bing Crosby promises to be fast to horses that can handle such fast fractions and that should not help the morning line favorite RECRUITING READY. The five-year old Algorithms horse has found ideal race setups in his previous two starts Belmont Park and could not finish the deal with a victory. In the Run Happy Stakes, RECRUITING READY found himself pressing a slow pace noted by the blue TimeformUS pace figure for a half mile and when he was blown away by the perfect trip winner Firenze Fire, he was in a three horse battle to hold second over the opportunistic closer Bon Raison and pacesetter Killybegs Captain. In his most recent start, he pressed another moderate pace outside the leader Strike Power, put in his run to challenge the pacesetter at mid-stretch, and could not get by him as subsequent Grade 2 San Diego Handicap winner Catalina Cruiser rallied to get up over a main track that favored inside-speed on June 7 at Belmont Park. He will be forced to race further back than usual because he will encounter “California Speed” versus the type of early speed he has seen this year on the East Coast and he will be a play against in the Bing Crosby. 

It’s rare that you find a race horse that has won as many as ten races from only fifteen starts but that is the case with our top choice CHIEF CICATRIZ who is rounding back to the form that saw him earn 129 TimeformUS and 110 Beyer Speed Figure in last year’s Grade 3 Aristides Handicap at Churchill Downs. A six furlong specialist with five wins from eight starts at this trip, CHIEF CICATRIZ was defeated at this trip on May 25 at Prairie Meadows when second behind D’ Rapper in the Ed Skinner Stakes and that second looks better considering that the winner went on to win his next two starts including the Iowa Sprint Handicap on July 5 with a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He bounced back from this defeat to win the Dark Star Cup at Canterbury Park on June 22 and did so in visually impressive fashion that has already been validated by subsequent performances of horses behind him. In that race, CHIEF CICATRIZ won a four-horse pace battle for the early lead through fast fractions with three pace rivals weaken to finish 4th, 5th, and 6th, and he kicked clear to win by 2-¾ lengths. What I find noteworthy about this performance was subsequent performances of the horses behind CHIEF CICATRIZ. The fifth-place finisher Hot Shot Kid won Minnesota Turf Sprint on July 3 with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure (3 point improvement), sixth-place finisher The Tabulator won an Allowance race at Thistledowns with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure (6 point improvement), and the seventh-place finisher Rock City Road Hog won a Starter Allowance race with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure (7 point improvement). The fact three horses behind CHIEF CICATRIZ all came back to win earning improved speed figures validates the win. A former one-dimensional front runner, CHIEF CICATRIZ should sit a garden trip on the outside in third tracking CALEXMAN and CISTRON in the clear a similar trip he had when he won Aristides Handicap last year. Ruben Fuentas who is off to a fast start this Del Mar takes over in the irons and at 12-1 on the morning line and with his win spirit and ability to win at all race tracks makes CHIEF CICATRIZ my best long shot bet on the program. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (6) CHIEF CICATRIZ at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta: 6-3. Small reverse. 

Small Exacta: 6-4. No reverse. 

Over Emphasize Can Spring Surprise in San Clemente

Friday’s Recap: Total -$100 for the meet. We connected with Oakland Mills but Streak of Luck did not have the smoothest of trips and we move on today’s Saturday’s card. The main action is later part of the card and being Saturday I will focus strictly on WIN bets. 

Race 6: (9) GYPSY BLU

This California bred daughter of Papa Clem is turf sprinting specialist having won four of five starts sprinting on a firm turf course with only one second and she returns to the Jimmy Durante turf course where she scored her only victory on this layout last year at 30-1. The Mark Glatt trainee won the Irish O’ Brian Stakes down the hillside turf course on March 31 at Santa Anita by only a half-length but she overcame a less than idea race shape to win from off the pace and did so over good field. She was taken back off the pace as the three leaders established slow fractions of 21.98 and 44.15 seconds. She began to inch closer down the hill and across the dirt portion of the layout, angled four wide into the turf course, and rallied to wear down the favorite S.Y. Sky to win by a half-length. This returned to be a productive field as the runner-up returned to win Camilla Urso Stakes and Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes in her next two starts with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 and 110 respectively and the fifth place finisher Queen Bee To You returned to run second and win the Fran’s Valentine and Bertrando Stakes with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 107 and 112 respectively. One can draw a line through her fourth place finish in the Fran’s Valentine on May 12 because she was running at one-mile a distance that is beyond her distance limitations where she split the field running fourth. She returned to one turn in an Allowance race on June 14 and she ran second behind today’s rival KENTON ROAD but she was compromised by a lack of early speed as the eventual winner got loose on the lead where Gypsy Blu earned a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure a figure two points higher because she rallied against the uncontested gate to wire winner. She has come back with two works including sharp half-mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 12 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “willing while joined home by Blue Moonrise (Baffert) in 23.2, 48.1. Is going quite well.” The lack of pace she encountered last time will not be found here as KENTON ROAD will find pressure from the speedy PAINTING CORNERS and LADY SUEBEE. Norbertto Arroyo Jr. remains in the irons and should stalk a lively pace in mid-pack and pounce over a layout she adores at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

Race 5 $20 Daily Double: (8) BLUE MOONRISE with (9) GYPSY BLU 

$25 WIN on (9) GYPSY BLU at 7-2 or better. 

Race 8: (6) OVER EMPHASIZE 

A daughter of Overanalyze comes into the San Clemente with only a maiden victory over this distance back on April 12 at Santa Anita she rallied from midpack to win by a nose. Since that victory, she has returned with pair of the in the money performances where her off the pace running style was compromised by a lack of pace or trouble at important parts of the pace and I feel this Mike McCarthy trainee needs pace and better racing luck to score the upset in this Grade 2 event. After her maiden victory, she took on winners for the first time on May 3 where her stalking style was compromised by a lack of early speed as the favored winner was able to get loose on an uncontested lead through slow fractions and she won the battle for second at the wire. She stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes and did not have the cleanest of trips in the stretch as the first two finishers Lady Prancelot and Hostess had clear outside rally wide trips. In that race, she saved ground passing the finish line for the first time and saved ground through the first half mile. As the pace began to quicken into and around the far turn, she continued racing on the rail and into the stretch where she attempted to get outside but was in tight Maxim Rate and the leader made the hole not there and Alonso Quinonez had to alter course to the inside in the final sixteenth of a mile and she was clear third. Both her runner-up performance in the paceless Allowance race won by Colonial Creed and her troubled third in the Honeymoon was at 1-⅛ miles and she now cuts back to one-mile the distance of her maiden victory three races back. In addition, she will find early pace for her late kick as TimeformUS anticipates the San Clemente being run at a fast pace with DEVILS DANCE, HARMLESS, and stablemate KALLINKI all vying for the early lead and Over Emphasize should drop over into mid-pack position and produce one late run as she owns the field’s best TimeformUS late pace rating. She has returned with two works including a best of eighteen half mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 15 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Q up; full of beans late rolling late in 24.3, 48.2. Set for utmost.” I expect Over Emphasize to deliver a career best performance on the cut back in distance and with plenty of speed signed on for her late kick at a price. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN bet on (6) OVER EMPHASIZE at 5-1 or better. 

Race 10: (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE)

A son of Declaration of War, BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) ships into Del Mar as part of the Ship and Win program and has hit the board only once in his last three starts but a closer inspection of each start reveals that this Irish bred gelding needs a ground saving trip and plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick and he should find that scenario in today’s finale at Del Mar. After breaking his maiden in late February at Gulfstream Park, he returned on Kentucky Derby week on May 2 at Churchill Downs and suffered a wide trip debacle in a productive race where the winner, Voting Control, won by 2-¼ widening lengths making his first start since the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide around the first turn and continued racing that wide down the backstretch pressing a slow pace. He continued racing wide into and around the far turn and was wisely wrapped up inside the final furlong to finish ahead of one rival to be ninth beaten eight-lengths. This May 2 Allowance event produced Pillar Mountain who won his next two starts and fifth place finisher Clear for Action returned to win his next start. He was reeled back three weeks later and with a different trip he produced a career best performance to run second earning career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure behind the perfect trip winner Get Western. Instead of being parked wide into the first turn, new jockey Adam Beschizza got BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) over to the rail into the first turn and he was able to save ground behind the long shot loose leader Discovered. He was angled off the hedge into the clear in the stretch and was second best as Get Western got first run but lost nothing in defeat finishing almost two-lengths clear of the rest of the field. In his most recent, he suffered a wide trip throughout racing three wide into and around the first turn, was parked four wide on the backstretch, and made a premature midrace move into the teeth of a fast pace coded red by TimeformUS and ran evenly through the stretch to split the twelve horse in sixth. He will now make his first start at Del Mar for trainer Steve Miyadi who does well with new acquisitions (86 TimeformUS trainer rating) and he should get the trip to deliver his best performance. TimeformUS anticipates a very fast pace with one dimensional front runners Snazzy Dresser, Factorial, and Foray all having raced or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts. If that pace scenario happens, I expect new rider Norbertto Arroyo Jr to take BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) to the inside in the first turn, stalk in midpack a lively pace, and produce one late run at a nice price in the finale. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN on (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) at 5-1 or better.