MULTI-RACE PLAYS
Race 6 Pick 5
6,8/1/4,7,10/8/6,8,9 = $18 for a $1 Wager
6,8/2/4,7,10/8/6,8,9 = $9 for a $0.50 Wager
6,8/1/9/8/6,8,9 = $3 for a $0.50 Wager
Total Pick 5 Wager: $30
Race 7 Pick 3
1 / 4,7,10 / 8 = $15 for a $5 Wager
Race 8 Double
4,7,10 / 8 = $30 for a $10 Wager
Race 5: (8) COOL RUNNINGS
The morning line favorite is K.P. INDY who finished a fast closing second behind Del Mar Juvenile Turf favorite Encoder on August 7. The son of Competitive Edge had saved ground through the first three furlongs of that five furlong event, was taken to the outside for a clear run in the stretch and delivered a strong late kick and galloped out strongly after the wire like a horse that will appreciate two turns. However, there are three main knocks I find with this Jeff Mullins trainee. Firstly, his sire Competitive Edge in his first crop has produced nine winners but ZERO have won on the turf with all of them sprinting on the main track and the dam of K.P. Indy was a dirt sprinter. Secondly, there is no guarantee that if a horse closing from off the pace will produce that form routing on the turf and thirdly he will be a short price routing on the turf for the first time. With his sire’s lack of success with his progeny routing on the turf and short price of KP Indy routing on the turf for the first time I will look to beat him with another colt by freshman sire standing at Coolmore America.
He only cost $60,000 at the Keeneland September 2018 which is lower than his stallions stud fee of $250,000 but COOL RUNNINGS received a lot of support in his career debut on July 28 at today’s distance on the turf. Although his sire American Pharoah won the 2015 Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Classic all on the main track, he has produced SEVEN turf winners in his first crop including Group 3 winner Maven, Skidmore Stakes winner Another Miracle, and Group 1 placed Monarch of Egypt indicating that Cool Runnings would handle the turf. He had not trained well leading up to his career debut with a pair of C workouts including a 1:00.4 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Under a good late ask in this set of three for the Desormeaux barn. Like to see an outing.” Despite his poor workouts and his dam’s lack of his produce winning on the turf, he was bet down to the 6-1 third choice and he outrun his workouts to produce a winning race in defeat only to be run down by Hit the Road who produced the last run to catch his rival. In that race, Keith Desormeaux trainee relaxed nicely off the pace early biding his time in the rear with the eventual winner Hit the Road who saved ground for the first half-mile and Cool Runnings was in the two-path. The difference of the two horses occured on the far turn when Cool Runnings unleashed four wide move on the far turn and into the stretch to go for the lead pass mid-stretch only to be run down by Hit the Road to lose by 1-¼ lengths but finished 1-½ lengths ahead of the rest of the field. Although the race only earned a sub-par 57 Beyer Speed Figure and 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure the distance between first and second place finish suggest this was a quality victory and that four wide move on the far turn resulted in Cool Runnings covering 44 feet more than the winner which is estimated four lengths of ground lost. He has come back with three workouts five furlong move in 1:01 ⅖ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Coming to hand very well while tracking and running away from barnmate Gorky Park in 35.4, 1:01.2. Getting better.” He should move forward in his second start and continue in the trend of his sire’s success with turf starters in his first crop.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) COOL RUNNINGS at 2-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 8-6. Small Reverse.
Small Exacta: 8-3. No reverse.
Race 7: (1) FORAY
The morning line favorite in this Allowance N1X with Optional Claiming price of $40,000 is DOUBLE TOUCH who exits a sixth and ninth place finishes in the Wickker and Del Mar Mile respectively and now he is being reeled back in only fourteen days with sales price of $40,000. This should be a huge negative for horseplayers for several reasons. Firstly, this quick turnaround is rare for this gelding as he traditionally four to six weeks between races and being entered in this race suggest his connections just want to race him and hope someone claims him. Second, he failed to be competitive in his two starts here at Del Mar as he was in prime striking position in the Wickker Handicap on July 21 pressing gate to wire Bombard and threw in the towel quickly to be sixth and although he was wide in the Del Mar Mile on August 18 he never mounted a serious rally passing only one rival to finish ninth. Also, there is not a lot of early speed in this field and that will compromise his stalking style but only help a specific horse who will benefit from the likely moderate early pace race shape in this field.
The lack of early speed will only benefit FORAY whose form prior to his mid-pack finish at this class level strongly suggest that if he can duplicate the type of trips he had on the lead in this event he will be strictly the one they must reel in. He accomplished his first of his two victories this year on April 5 where he was loose on an uncontested early lead through very slow early fractions with the half mile and six furlongs fractions coded blue by TimeformUS and kicked clear earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure and form of that race was validated when the seventh and eighth place finishers returned to win earning improved 80 and 79 Beyer Speed Figures and 97 and 99 TimeformUS Speed Figures respectively. He stepped up to face Starter Allowance rivals and he delivered another impressive performance duplicating his 88 Beyer Speed Figure and earning career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race, he sped to the lead and was hounded through fast fractions over a glib turf course by Mongolian Gray Wolf, shook free of that pace rival pass the quarter pole, opened up a length and half lead pass mid-stretch and safely held off the late bid of North County Guy to win by a half-length. Although the surface and distance favored forwardly placed runners, this returned to be a very productive race with the third through fifth place finishers returning to win earning 86, 85, and 80 Beyer Speed Figures and 108, 107, and 100 TimeformUS Speed Figures respectively. Included in that list of next out winners was Acclimate who won Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano and Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap in two of his next four starts. He stepped up to this class level on July 20 at this one-mile trip and he managed to run evenly to split the field but this effort was the result of pace. He was not able to make the early lead because Snazzy Dresser was gunned for the early lead by jockey Edwin Maldonado and that rival set a very fast early pace that Foray chased including half mile fraction coded by red by TimeformUS. This fast pace resulted in a pace meltdown as the first three finishers rallied from ninth, sixth, and seventh after the first half mile. He has bounced back with four workouts for his return including his August 11 and August 18 moves graded B by National Turf Andy Harrington and in that latter move he “Again liked the way this one relaxed (had been a tad keen in the past) breezing solo late for the Sadler barn. Feeling good.” After being forced to chase the very quick Snazzy Dresser last time, he does not find a rival with his type of early speed in this field and jockey Jorge Velez who with his apprentice gets five to seven pound weight allowance from the rest of the field will place this gelding on the lead with only Wound Tight the other pace in this field and when Foray has lead after the first call in two starts this year he is perfect two for two and I look for him to score his third win in 2019 with a similar trip.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) FORAY at 3-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 1-2, 1-6. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: (8) MOODY JIM (IRE)
The morning line favorite in the feature Del Mar Derby is NEPTUNE’S STORM who exits a runner-up performance behind the uncontested gate to wire KINGLY in the La Jolla Handicap twenty-eight days ago. A closer inspection of his form this year reveals that this son of Stormy Atlantic is no standout. He enjoyed a perfect pace pressing trip on April 28 in the Singletary Stakes and in the Cinema Stakes one month later at today’s 1-⅛ miles distance he enjoyed not only another pace pressing trip but found himself pressing very slow early fractions that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Today’s Del Mar Derby will not have KINGLY in this field but also the maiden PARISOMY who lead at every step except the wire on the undercard of the Pacific Classic program can flash speed making this an honest pace for the horses coming from off the pace.
The Jeff Mullins trained MOODY JIM did not make his debut as a two-year old and made his belated racing debut on May 10 in Ireland at Cork where he finished excellent third in a twelve horse field where the Timeform European analyst commented “made an encouraging start to career; mid-division, headway when switched over 2f out, headway approaching final 1f, no extra final 100 yards; should improve.” The race proved to be productive as the runner-up, Balefire, returned to break his maiden in his next start and went on to a Listed Handicap in his most recent start. He was privately purchased Red Baron’s Barn LLC and Rancho Temescal LLC and made his first start for trainer Jeff Mullins at Churchill Downs on June 29 where he overcame a less than ideal start to finish a better than looked fourth. In that race, he bobbled sharply at the break recovered to trail the field on the rail for the first half mile, moved up along the rail on the far turn, split rivals into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire to beat more than half the field. His late rally looks even better when you consider the winner He’s Stylish was able make an uncontested lead through very slow early fractions that earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He made his Del Mar debut on July 27 where he received a perfect ride from today’s jockey Drayden Van Dyke where he flashed a terrific turn of foot defeating quality field. In that race, he navigated towards the rail into the first turn and saved ground as the longshot leader The Longest Night navigated through very slow early fractions as the half mile and six furlong fractions were coded blue by TimeformUS. Despite this disadvantegous race shape, he swung towards the outside pass the quarter pole and delivered excellent flash of late speed to sweep past the leader Mo Forza to win by comfortable half-length earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure and 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of this race was validated when Succeed and Surpass and Parisomny returned to finish first and second in their next start with 85 and 84 Beyer Speed Figure respectively and Mo Forza the runner-up returned two starts later on August 31 to run second beaten a nose in Allowance N1X. MOODY JIM completed his final five-sixteenths in a sharp 28.06 seconds that indicates the extra sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue for this son of Moohaajim. He has returned with four workouts over the Del Mar turf course including the rare A- from National Turf Andy Harrington on August 25 where he stated “Really stepping things up big time rolling home like a quality type in 37.3, 100.4 (23.1 LQ) with Drayden up. Gets better and better.” Drayden Van Dyke who rode the morning line favorite Neptune’s Storm in his previous three starts choose this Jeff Mullins trainee over him speaks volumes on how highly regarded this colt is and with only two starts in North America he has plenty of blue sky ahead of him and his late kick will be flattered by an honest pace among Neptune’s Storm, Kingly, and Parisomny. At 5/1 on the morning line he is my BEST BET of the MEET.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) MOODY JIM at 5-2 or better*
Main Exacta: 8-4. Small Reverse.
Small Exacta: 8-3. No reverse.
*If we our live in our suggested Pick 3 and Daily Double bets into the 9th no WIN bet is necessary.
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