Speed Is King on Bing Crosby Day at Del Mar

BEST BET: LADY MAMBA (Race 7, 9-2 ML)

Race 6: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early that does not favor a specific running style but has three horses vying for the early lead. Little Jude, Precious Dixie, and Sheza a Chattykat are the three horses that look to mix it up for the early lead. Delightful Lady, Bernina Star, and Wonderful Lie look to sit in the first flight waiting to pounce on those dueling leaders. Merirosvo and Lake Time will be sitting back and make a patent late run hoping for a pace meltdown to materialize.

Delightful Lady is the morning line favorite and will get plenty of support based strictly on her maiden victory January 16 where she defeated subsequent Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks winner and this year’s favorite for Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks Paradise Woods. However, that race was 184-days ago and she was sent to the sidelines right that after visually impressive maiden victory. She will now make her first start versus winners in a dirt sprint and according to DRF Formulator trainer Richard Baltas has won a paltry 9% (25-2-6-1) with maiden winners making their next start versus winners in a dirt sprint. In addition, she enjoyed an absolute perfect trip in her maiden victory winning by 3-¾ lengths but only earned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure and 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure and those speed figures suggest that she is no standout in her first start off layoff and versus winners. The early pace of this race is composed of three main rivals and one of them is the longer price of the two Richard Baltas trainees and she has a recency advantage over her stable mate.

She broke her maiden for a $100,000 maiden claiming price but SHEZA CHATTYKAT (#7) is the speed of this Allowance N1X sprint and is drawn comfortably outside her two chief pace rivals where she can allow Little Jude and Precious Dixie duel for the early lead and jockey Corey Nakatani sit in the garden spot or prompting the pace in the clear. She faced winners for the first time on May 7 at today’s 6-½ furlong distance and ran second beaten 1-¼ lengths behind Chalon. According to the HR Trip Notes, this daughter of Trappe Shot “prompted early then dueled two-deep down the backside, put her head in front in the stretch, lost the lead past mid-stretch, out-finished to the wire.” This was no ordinary Allowance race as the winner returned to win $150,000 Jersey Girl Stakes on June 11 at Belmont Park with a career best 93 Beyer Speed Figure. She was ambitiously placed next in the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks where she found the jump in class and distance of 1-1/16 not to her liking. According to the HR Trip Notes, she “dashed to the front, set a quick pace down the backstretch, led to the quarter-pole, swarmed on all sides, gave way in the lane.” She earned the field’s highest last race 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field and the race was validated as the second and third-place finishers, Mopotism and Majestic Quality, came back to finish second and third respectively earning comparing Beyer Speed Figures of 90 in the Indiana Oaks in their next start along with It Tiz Well who won the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks with Beyer Speed Figure of 91. The Richard Baltas trainee will now cut back from a route to a sprint on the Del Mar main track according to DRF Formulator he wins at excellent 31% (13-4-1-2) with horses going from route to sprint on the Del Mar main track. In addition, she makes the cut back with a series of three stellar works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as he gave a B for each move but none more impressive her July 24 spin over the Del Mar oval where he commented “Rallied sharply home with a 23.2 last 1/4 looking to have happy feet all the way home.” Jockey Corey Nakatani remains in the irons and I expect this filly to relish the reduction in distances and not having to hook a rival in the caliber of Chalon in this field at what should be a square price.

My other co-top choice is the closer LAKE TIME (#9) who closed with the benefit of a pace meltdown on July 4 to finish third behind the two full sisters: Dis Smart Cat and Dis Cats on the Square. She is eligible to improve as that was her first race off a 228-day layoff and she loves the Del Mar main track having yet to finish worse than third in three starts. Her defeat to subsequent multiple Grade 1 winner Abel Tasman on November 18 was the result of a premature move into very slow fractions. With at least three confirmed speed types in this field, she should have plenty of pace to set up her late run with Gary Stevens reuniting with daughter of Tapizar.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) SHEZA CHATTYKAT at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 7-3, 7-6, 7-9. No reverse.

Main Exactas: 9-3, 9-6, 9-7. No reverse.

Pick 3: 7, 9 w/ 6 w/ 2, 4, 6, 10, 11 = 2 x 1 x 5 x $2 = $20

Pick 3: 7, 9 w/ 6 w/ 6, 10, 11 = 2 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $6

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor a specific running style. The two Peter Eurton trainees are the fillies that lead the field with TimeformUS early pace ratings with Arrowsphere the likely early leader with stablemate Lady Mamba pressing or tracking that rival in second early. Robin’s Love will look to stalk this leading duo in third early. Trail maidens Scandal and Sweet Connie look to charge from off the pace hoping for a pace meltdown in the stretch to set up for their late kick.

When a horse loses at odds of 1-1, 2-1, 8-5, and 7-5 and more importantly is a trail maiden with eleven starts and seven second place finishes this horse will always get action and that horse is Scandal. In her last three starts routing on the turf at Santa Anita she has either rallied to grab second as she did when she finished second back on April 29 or she rallied, missed, and hung through the stretch as she did back on March 25 and May 20. The gray daughter of Blame will garner plenty of attention because of her close finishes in ten starts on the turf but I am not going to bite. She is a horse you must use underneath but good bet against especially in a race that begins a Guaranteed Late Pick 4.

I doubt that she will go off anywhere near her 9-2 morning line but I always felt that LADY MAMBA (#6) would find a home on the grass based strictly on her pedigree. She was purchased for $1 Million at the Keeneland September 2015 yearling sale and that was the fourth highest priced yearling from the 27 yearlings by the sire War Front who produces 17% turf winners in the past five years. She is by the dam Siren Serenade who was maiden in ten career starts but finished second in three of five routing on the turf. She has produced three winners from three starters including her stablemate Exhale who broke her maiden going a flat mile on the turf back on October 2, 2016 at Santa Anita. This dark bay filly made her career debut back on November 26 during the Del Mar Bing Crosby meet where she finished a dead heat for third beaten 14-¾ lengths behind the favored gate to wire winner Unique Bella. According to the HR Trip Notes, she “Tracked the pacesetter down the backstretch, could not keep pace in the far turn, hand ridden into the stretch, one paced, tagged late for third.” This maiden race earned an excellent 87 Beyer Speed Figure and that speed figure has been confirmed. The winner Unique Bella went on to win the Grade 2 Santa Ynez, Las Virginias, and Grade 3 Santa Ysabel earning Beyer Speed Figures of 91, 99, and 97 respectively. The horse she finished in a dead heat for third, Delightful Lady, returned to break her maiden on January 26 with an 83 Beyer Speed Figure. She will now make her first start off a 245-day layoff and trying the turf and two turns for the first time all categories that her trainer Peter Eurton does not excel with but she has trained like a filly that could be a top prospect according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She worked a bullet six furlongs in 1:11 ⅘ on July 16 that Andy Harrington raved giving it a B+ stating “Full of run all the way in 46.1, 111.0 moving like a very nice sort indeed.” Flavien Prat who was aboard this filly in her career debut and has been working this filly in the morning remains aboard and she has enough early speed where she will track but not duel with stable mate Arrowsphere and if she runs to her turf laden pedigree and her works leading up to her three-year old debut it will take a huge effort from one of the trial maidens to beat this second start three-year old filly as my BEST BET on the card.

The Play: The belief in this corner is that Lady Mamba has found the right field to make her second start off the layoff and her first start around two turns on a surface she is bred to adore. She is the vehicle of all my multi-race wagers starting in a Pick 3 in Race 6 and of course the beginning of the Pick 4.

WIN bet on (6) LADY MAMBA at 3-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-5. No reverse.

Small Exacta: 6-7. No reverse.  

Pick 3: 6 w/ 2, 4, 6, 10, 11 w/ 2, 3, 4 = 1 x 5 x 3 x $2 = $30

Pick 3: 6 w/ 2, 4, 6, 10, 11 w/ 2, 3     = 1 x 5 x 2 x $1 = $10

Race 8: Claiming $50,000 to $40,000, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds

TimeformUS pace projector has this race not developing at a fast early pace but it can with the two front runners in this race. Who’s Out and Sutton Impact have been on the lead setting red-coded TimeformUS pace figures in their sprint races and that type of early speed could result in those two horses vying for the lead through faster than average early fractions. Big League will look to track those two horses in the perfect spot in third early. Tavasco Road and Regal Born will hope for a pace meltdown stalking this pace duel in mid-pack and morning line favorite Gentrified will be charging from the rear of the field hoping to get the same pace setup he received last time.

I will be using the morning line favorite, Gentrified, as a horse underneath in my exactas and defensively on top but the main play is too beat him. He is undefeated in two starts at today’s seven furlong distance but his last race on June 17 that earned the field’s highest last race 79 Beyer Speed Figure was a complete setup. The pacesetter Who’s Out sent out to the front and establish too fast an early pace earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures earning above average Moss Pace Figures for the first time half mile (+13, +10). The Malibu Moon gelding took advantage of this race shape to rally from sixth to score the 2-½ length victory. He now returns for the same claiming price for Vladimir Cerin and while he is realistically spotted by his trainer another horse makes an important drop in class and will offer a hint of value.  

My favorite angle to handicap these restricted three-year old claiming races are to find horses that exit races where they faced older rivals and now are facing their age group. In addition if that horse or horses is dropping for a claiming price for the first time even better and BIG LEAGUE (#11) fits that profile perfectly. The Speightstown gelding finish in the money in all three starts as two-year old including a debut victory and a second in the Grade 2 Best Pal over this Del Mar main track. The Peter Miller trainee made his three-year old debut on April 16 off a 210-day layoff and he finished third beaten 8-½ lengths but had a track bias that worked against him. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, the dark bay or brown gelding “prompted the pace four-deep, outrun around the far turn, dropped back three-wide into the lane, distant third.” He was parked wide every step over a main track that strongly favored inside lanes as the winner Aristocratic led gate to wire racing on the good inside lanes throughout. Next he switched to the turf racing on the downhill turf course for the first time in the Desert Code Stakes and he was used as a rabbit where he disputed a very fast early pace good enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures and weaken badly to finish sixth beaten 14-lengths behind his stablemate and perfect trip stalking winner Arms Runner. He returned to the main track and dropped in class to Allowance N1X on the main track on June 17 versus older rivals and defeated only one horse beaten 5-lengths behind the gate to wire winner Blue Anchor. Owner Rockingham Ranch and trainer Peter Miller have decided now to drop this horse for claiming price for the first time and now faces only his age group after facing stakes company or older allowance rivals in his three starts this year. He should get a great trip from outermost post position ten in a ten horse field with Who’s Hot and Sutton Impact vying for the early lead and jockey Paco Lopez can have Big League in the garden spot in third. The realistic class drop should make a big difference returning to his favorite main track at a hint of a price.

The Play:

WIN bet on (11) BIG LEAGUE at 4-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 11-2, 11-4, 11-6, 11-10. Small reverse for each.

Race 9: Grade 1 Bing Crosby, 6 Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward

The defection of Coastline and Big Macher mean that TimeformUS pace projector feel this race will boil down to the two horses that have the most early speed and they are DreFong and St. Joe Bay. Two horses that will be tracking this leading duo down the backstretch are Roy H and Moe Candy. I expect Ransom the Moon to be sitting in midpack hoping for a pace meltdown to materialize and and as usual Solid Wager and Kobe’s Back will be making their respective late charge in the stretch.

The 111 Beyer Speed Figure and 133 TimeformUS Speed Figure that Roy H earned in the True North Handicap stands out in this race. It was not only the field’s highest last race speed figure but also a career best for the More than Ready gelding in fourteen starts. The question is can he duplicate that speed figure in today’s race and this is where I am going to take a stand against this Peter Miller trainee. The conditions of his True North Handicap victory played perfectly to him as he was parked four wide chasing or pressing a very slow early pace, made a move to grab the lead past the quarter pole, and kicked away to post the 2-½ length margin of victory. One cannot discuss that win without mentioning the main track on June 9 that strongly favored horses on the outside paths and Roy H rode the bias throughout this victory. Although the early fractions were very slow according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (-5, -4), the pace collapsed as the first three leaders finished 5th, 6th, and 8th as the first four horses that crossed the wire rallied from 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th. Lastly, the last race speed figure was not validated as four horses returned to finish off the board with three of them, Stallwalking Dude, Fellowship, and Green Gratto, earning worse Beyer Speed Figure in there next start. For all these reasons and the expected short price as the second choice I am going to play against him and focus my attention on one of the two speed horses that should be vying for the early lead.

Prior to his debacle in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan, ST. JOE BAY (#3) was a terror on the main track sprinting recording three consecutive victory including a dead heat win in the Midnight Lute with his stable mate Solid Wager. He caught my attention when he posted smashing 6-½ length victory over this Del Mar main track in the last day of the 2016 Del Mar Bing Crosby meet. In that race broke running from the rail to battle for the early lead with 46-1 longshot Guy Code, dueled that rival into defeat (finished last beaten 25 lengths), turned away a challenge from the favorite Jazzy Times, and romped in the stretch earning a career best 104 Beyer Speed Figure and 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Although visually impressive, I felt this victory was with the grain of the track bias as December 4, 2016 card at Del Mar strongly favored inside paths and St. Joe Bay rode the bias the entire way. After dead heat victory with his stablemate Solid Wager in a muddy edition of the Midnight Lute Stakes, he proved that his victory on December 4 was no fluke when he delivered a 2-¼ length victory in the Grade 2 Palos Verdes on February 4 where he ran fast early, middle, and late. In that race, he battled for the early lead with Ocho Ocho Ocho through a fast first quarter of mile per Moss Pace Figures (+7). The gelding by Saint Anddan did not get breather as second choice Moe Candy ranged up three wide approaching the quarter but that did not stop St. Joe Bay as he put away both challenges and kicked away to earn 103 Beyer Speed Figure and 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Four of his five career victories were on a fast main track and I am going to dismiss his debacle behind country’s leading sprinter, Mind Your Biscuits, in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He is reunited with Kent Desormeaux who was aboard him for his previous three sprint victories and he has been training fast for his return with six consecutive works including a 58 ⅕ from the gate on July 18 that saw the second fastest move clock in 59 ⅘. He enjoys a scrap for the early lead evidenced by his previous three victories and being drawn outside of DreFong and his affinity for the Del Mar main track were the two keys that made him the selection to post the mild upset in the meets first Grade 1.

The Play:

WIN bet on (3) ST. JOE BAY at 3-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 3-2, 3-4. Small reverse for each.

Turf Racing and Return of Arrogate Highlight Saturday's Del Mar Card

Race 6:

I have a special place in my heart for horses that might not be very well bred but run their hearts out every time they step to the race track. Howdy Kingkowboy (#11) is 20-1 on the morning line but TimeformUS pace projector has him clear on an uncontested lead going into the backstretch and if left alone he can be a very tough rival to run down in the stretch. He was the beaten favorite in the Tempe Handicap on March 11 but did everything right but win where he won the early pace battle but lost the war. In that race he battled between Cherokee Legacy and Factored In into and around the first turn and did not get any breather down the backstretch Factored In continued to press him all the way around the final turn. The Kodiak Kowboy gelding finally put away that rival into the stretch and opened up a 1-½ length lead at mid-stretch but was caught right on the wire by He’s Munnie who rallied from perfect spot in fifth after a half mile to win by a head. Howdy Kingkowboy ran the better race winning the early pace battle that saw his two speed rivals weaken to finish 4th and 7th and only caught on the wire by a perfect trip stalking winner. His next turf race happen on June 3 at Santa Anita Park where he was up for a claiming price of $50,000 and even though he only won by three-quarters of a length he showed so much fight and determination to win that it was impressive watching the race replay. He showed his typical early speed to battle head and head with Giro Candito early with Squared Squared tracking that speed duel in third early. He was able to shake loose from those two speed rivals and drifted out past the quarter pole as the two favorites ranged up from off the pace to challenge Howdy Kingkowboy and actually poked their head in front but this gelding refused to quit easily battling back between rivals to win by three-quarters of a length and galloping out well in front after the wire. The two pace rivals nearest the winner weaken badly to finish fourth and fifth as this effort is better than any speed figure would indicate because he showed determination after an intense speed duel early. He continues to hold his speed according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington who assigned him a B- for his previous two works both with Bryan Pena aboard who is back in the irons. He will be in front going into the first turn and if he can somehow ration his speed effectively the nine furlong event he could prove tough rival to run down at what should be boxcar odds.

Race 8:

This race is filled with plenty of horses that are either mid-pack, plodders, and closers. This race only has two real confirmed speed types in Khaleesi and our top pick Ok Doll (#11) at 9-2 on the morning line. The daughter of First Samurai exits a third-place finish back on January 29 where her jockey Rafael Bejarano rated her too much behind a very slow early pace won by the pace pressing winner Peach Cove in a race that produced TWO next time out winners. The race that sticks out and where she should enjoy a similar trip as today was back on December 29, 2016 at Santa Anita at today’s one-mile distance where she was able to use her early speed to track the pacesetter Nine Point Nine early and wear that rival down to win by three-quarters of a length racing on her wrong lead to the wire. She will make her first start off a 174-day layoff but note she ran well twice off layoffs. She was second beaten a half-length at odds of 15-1 returning off a 78-day layoff in her only start over the Del Mar turf course on August 27, 2016 where she led at each call but was caught right on the wire by the favored stalker Nodiac and she returned from a 69-day layoff when she won that aforementioned December 29 race over Nine Point Nine. TimeformUS pace projector has her pressing the pace outside of Khaleesi and she will get first run on the mid-pack and closing types for winning trainer and jockey combination of Richard Baltas and jockey Rafael Bejarano.

Race 10:

My stand against in this race is the morning line favorite Lucky Soul (#7). The son of Lookin At Lucky finished a fast closing fourth and galloped out in the front of the entire field in his debut on April 20 behind subsequent stakes winner Arms Runner. He stretched out to two turns on May 27 and finished a fast closing third beaten a head behind the last to first winner Miner’s Light. Despite that margin of defeat, that race has not returned to be a productive one as only the fifth-place finisher, Oregon, came back to win with the rest of the field producing one third-place finish and six others came back to finish off the board in there next race. His lack of early speed is a concern because this race only has confirmed front runner and that pacesetter is the selection in this field along with another horse exceptionally bred to run long on the grass.

Ready Aim (#9) will now stretch out to two turns after preparing for this event in two sprints at Santa Anita. The son of Into Mischief has run sneaky well in each of his two starts and should show his form on the stretch out to two turns and trying turf for the first time. He finished seventh beating three horses to the wire in his debut on May 6 run over a wet fast sealed main track where he ran greenly but showed ability in defeat. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, he “raced at the tail of the field, ran in spots while under a drive heading into the far turn, rallied five-wide into the stretch, flattened out mid-stretch.” That maiden race returned to be a monster “key” race where the winner The Critical Way returned win the state-bred Danzig Stakes at Penn National with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, fifth-place finisher Gato Del Oro returned to break his maiden with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and the sixth-place finisher The Party Factor returned to break his maiden with a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. The Richard Mandella trainee “ran in spots” in his debut and in order to correct this issue the blinkers were added in his second start on June 10 and he ran into another “key” race field where he showed signs of form. In that race, HR Trip Notes commented this colt “Showed pace from the outside near the front, sitting just off heading into the turn, making a brief challenge in the turn, with the run petering out in mid-stretch.” The race earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and that speed figure was validated when the winner Gato Del Oro returned to win Allowance N1X on opening day with 93 Beyer Speed Figure and the sixth-place finisher dropped for a $75,000 claiming price and won with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure as the two horses that vied for the lead with Ready Aim already returned to win their next start. He is a half brother to two turf winners including full sister Forever Famous who won one of seven starts on the turf.  Formulator Fact: In the past five years, trainer Richard Mandella wins at gaudy 36% (11/4-2-3) with his starters switching from dirt to turf and stretching from sprint to route in a maiden special weight event. He turned in crisp five furlong move here at Del Mar on July 17 in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Last 4f with a maiden mate working steady in 48.3. Should like any added distance.” TimeformUS pace projector has this bay colt loose on an uncontested early lead and on the stretch out should be a tough rival to run down under Drayden Van Dyke.

Borg (#5) is the one horse that since his debut on May 6 I have patiently waited for this colt to stretch out to two turns and try grass because his pedigree is strictly about running long on the grass. He managed to run very well to finish fourth beaten five-lengths in his career debut on May 6 where the HR Trip Notes commented “traveled at the tail of the field, niggled at to keep pace down the backstretch, angled off the rail into the stretch, weaved through traffic in the lane, dove to the rail, flew home on his wrong lead, galloped out powerfully.” This was the same “key” race that Ready Aim exits that produced THREE next time out winners. Even though I knew he would be best running long on the grass, he was top choice for me in his second career start on July 1 in his first race for trainer Simon Callaghan and he managed to split the field finishing fourth behind the impressive gate to wire winner Pavel who romped with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. This son of Candy Ride was the only horse finishing in the stretch as the first three finishers ran 1st, 3rd, and 2nd after a half mile and this was a respectable performance in defeat. He now will stretch out to two turns and try grass for the first time and based on his breeding this should pose no issue. His dam She’s Sensational won 6 of 16 starts but was 4 for 8 routing on the turf. Moreover, she produced Our Way who won 4 of 12 starts on the turf thus Borg should have no problem stretching out or switching to the turf for the first time. In addition, he has come back to breeze very well according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with a half mile spin in 49 ⅖ that Andy gave a B stating “Breezed fluidly out of last try going the last 1/4 in 24.0. Sure seems much better than record so far.” He should find himself tracking the pace in comfortable spot in the first flight behind expected pacesetter Ready Aim and attempt to run down that rival in the stretch as those two are my top choices in the finale.

Two Year Olds and Top Class Turf Racing Highlight Del Mar's Opening Day

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies

There is not enough data to make a TimeformUS pace projector for this race but there is plenty of pedigree, workout information, and trainer angles found in Formulator to make this race a playable race in the first leg of the opening day Pick 6 and final leg of the meets first Pick 5.

Two highly regarded first time starters that were the highest priced by their respective stallions will be the focus of my play in this excellent maiden race. JUST A SMIDGE (#8) will get the top preference based on trainer Bob Baffert’s superb record of debuting two-year old maidens here at Del Mar, the competitive bidding at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-year old in training sale, and glowing workout reports from National Turf’s Andy Harrington gives her the slight edge over Varanasi. The daughter of thirteen-percent debut sire Into Mischief was part of a heated auction at the May Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-year old in training sale where the hammer closed at $425,000 which was tied as the highest price two-year old by Into Mischief at the sale and was tied for sixth overall in the highest priced two-year olds sold at the sale. Trainer Bob Baffert has already sent out two debuting maiden two-year olds to win this year and both went off as the favorite: Diamondsandpearls (July 2, 1-2, 70 Beyer Speed Figure) and Zulfikhar (July 7, 3-5, 82 Beyer Speed Figure). However, Del Mar is where trainer Bob Baffert unleashes his best two-year olds. In the past five years, he has won 28% clip with debuting two-year olds in a maiden special weight dirt sprint here at Del Mar and last summer had FIVE two-year olds that made their debut a winning one here at Del Mar including American Cleopatra who went off at 7-1 in her debut. She comes into her debut with three consecutive B works from National Turf’s Andy Harrington but it is his comments about her works that really caught my attention. She worked five furlongs from the gate in 59.2 where she flashed “Nice speed from the blocks inside speedy older barn mate Pretty Owl trying hard while a bit the second best in 23.4, 46.4, 59.4. Plenty of grit here,” and concluded her work tab with another five furlong move from the gate in 1:00 ⅕ where she “Broke well waiting on older barn mate Zipman until ready, drawing clear in 23.4, 47.1, 59.4. Handy roan.” Drawn outside with plenty of early speed from the gate to be forward factor, she is definite must use and appears ready to roll from the box.

Trainer Richard Mandella has won only once in his previous five starters that were two-year olds that made there debuting sprinting on the Del Mar main track, but VARANASI (#3) checks all the boxes that I would look for in a debut winning profile. She cost $385,000 at the September 2016 yearling sales and that price was the highest price of the fifty-three colts or fillies by Jimmy Creed at the sale. Moreover, she owns a terrific win early pedigree as her dam, Yearly Report, broke her maiden in her career debut by four-lengths earning 87 Beyer Speed Figure and she has passed that winning habit to her foals. She has produced three winners from five starters including Condo Commando who won three of four starts as a two-year old including the Grade I Spinaway. The sire Jimmy Creed is off to a fast start as a stallion with six winners from seventeen starters but more importantly THREE of them won their career debut: Wall of Compassion (July 7, 2017, $5.80-1), Spectator (June 23, 2017, $9.80-1), and Cajun Creed (June 17, 2017, $1.10-1). She enters this race with four consecutive B works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as with Just A Smidge, the comments from Andy really caught my attention. She worked five furlongs in 1:01.3 on July 12 where Andy caught her working with “Prat up; waited mid-stretch on a mate moving away in 36.3, 101.3 out well in 114.2. Looks fit for debut.”

The Play: These two are the second and third choices on the morning line and if you are playing the Pick 5 or starting the Pick 6 I will recommend using these two horses. For the purposes of betting this race I will only recommend an Exacta box between my top two choices.

Main Exacta Box: 3, 8

Race 6: Allowance N2X, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will not favor a specific running style but a glance at the likely pace sees the horse drawn on the rail, Bert’s Melody, on an uncontested early lead with horses such as Dynamic Misses K and Moonless Sky chasing Bert’s Melody in the first flight. Family Meeting, Hiking, and Shehastheritestuff will be charging with their late run in the stretch.

Nodiac owns the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (89) and Hiking owns the top last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (113) with Family Meeting and Nodiac own the second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (112). Bert’s Melody owns the field’s highest early pace rating in the field (108) and Family Meeting owns the field’s highest late pace rating (110) in the field.

When I handicap this race it boils down to two horses with contrasting running style as my top choice will be on the front end and my second choice will be charging from off the pace with a big late kick. On paper, BERT’S MELODY (#1), looks terrible on form. After all, she has been defeated by a combined twenty-six and half lengths in her last two starts and stopped badly in her most recent start where jockey Brice Blanc eased her to the wire. Despite those defeats, the circumstances surrounding each defeat contributed to her poor performances and now in her third start of 2017 this daughter Bertrando should be set to rebound to a winning performance as she is projected to be loose on an uncontested lead. After she won last year’s edition of the Fran’s Valentine Stakes, she was sent to the sidelines and did not run for the remainder of 2016. She returned from a 294-day layoff in the Irish O’Brien Stakes where she was running down the hill for the third time and she was winless in two previous tries over that layout suggesting that return race was designed as prep to stretch out to two turns. She showed her early speed but was out-sprinted for the lead by the dueling leaders Emmy and I and favored Enola Gray. She continued tracking the favored winner down the hill before being in an all out drive crossing the dirt into the main turf course and was wrapped up in the stretch finishing thirteen and three-quarter lengths behind Enola Gray who returned two starts later to win the Grade III Wilshire Handicap with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure and 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Sean McCarthy trainee returned from a brief eighty-five day layoff on June 11 where she stretched out to one-mile and she delivered another sub-par performance finishing twelve and three-quarter lengths behind opportunistic stalking winner Corps De Ballet. This defeat can be contributed to being involved in a fast pace speed duel with two other one dimensional front runners. She broke quickly and set the pace into the first turn with pressure from one of the front runners Ticaboo and never got a breather as the other front runner Mangita pressured her as those two rivals tore through fractions of 23.01, 45.98, and six furlongs in 1:09.93 seconds. When the field reached the top of the stretch, Bert’s Melody was finished and was wisely wrapped up towards the wire. She will now make her second race off the layoff and bounced back with two works including an excellent five furlong move on July 13 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “ Relaxed spin through the lane after showing her usual speed with Blanc up in 34.4, 100.4. Always dangerous early gas.” More importantly, Ticaboo and Mangita, the two front runners that pressed her through those fast fractions on June 11 are not entered and she should be loose on an uncontested lead through more relaxed fractions. If allowed to dictate her own terms on the front end she will be tough rival to run down at a distance she has yet to finish no worse than second in two starts.

My second choice FAMILY MEETING (#3) has been facing tougher competition in five starts in the East Coast and this race is actually a drop down in class when you consider the company she faced this year. The home-bred daughter of Sky Mesa finished seventh beaten nine and half lengths in the Grade II Hillsborough on March 11 in her previous start at today’s 1-⅛ mile distance where she faced classy group of fillies and mares on the turf. The sixth-place finisher Light in Paris returned to win the Plenty of Grace Stakes on April 15 at Aqueduct and then ran second in the Grade III Eatontown Stakes on June 3 at Monmouth Park earning Beyer Speed Figures of 95 and 92 respectively. The winner Dickinson returned to win the Grade I Jenny Wiley and finish third beaten only three-quarters of a length in the Grade 1 Just A Game earning Beyer Speed Figures of 100 and 98 respectively. After a win versus Florida-breds in the Pleasant Acres Stallion Distaff Turf, she returned versus open company at this class level on Preakness Stakes day at Pimlico and ran fifth beaten only a length in what has returned to be a “key” race. The fourth-place finisher, Gone Away, returned to win Allowance N2X at Laurel by five and half lengths earning improved 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The third-place finisher, Tricky Escape, returned to finish fourth beaten two-lengths in the Grade III Eatontown Stakes on June 3 at Monmouth Park earning improved 91 Beyer Speed Figure. Finally, the runner up Arraign returned to win Allowance N2X at Delaware Park with 82 Beyer Speed Figure. She finished third on June 17 in Florida-bred Stakes at Gulfstream Park earning the second highest last race 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Tom Proctor trainee has a huge late kick and is reunited with Drayden Van Dyke who rode her to a 37-1 upset win over this turf course in the Jimmy Durante Stakes as a two-year old.

The Play: This race boils down to Bert’s Melody on the front end, Family Meeting charging from off the pace, and red hot Moonless Sky who is 4/3-1-0 for trainer Eddie Truman and Kent Desormeaux. I will be focusing on the Exacta and WIN bet on Bert’s Melody if we get anywhere near her 6-1 morning line.

WIN bet on (1) BERT’S MELODY at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-7. Small reverse.

Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-7. Small reverse.

Main Pick 3: 1, 3 / 2, 5, 7, 10 / 4 = 2 x 4 x 1 x $2 = $16   

Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward

TimeformUS pace projector anticipates this one-mile Allowance event will not favor a specific running style but based on my review of the entrants in this field only two horses have enough early speed to take this field gate to wire. Absolutely Stylish will go straight to the front end but will be pressed on the outside by another stylish maiden winner Gato Del Oro as those two horses are the main early pace in this race. Karma King and Tell Me Story will be out sprinted for the early lead and will be forced to stalk this leading duo. Giant Expectations will be sitting in first flight waiting to pounce on the two leaders into the far turn. Miner’s Light, Quiet Dude, and Saint Dermot are closers looking for a pace meltdown in the stretch.

Absolutely Stylish owns the field’s highest last race Beyer Speed Figure (92) and Gato Del Oro owns the highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (113) in the field. Absolutely Stylish owns the field’s highest TimeformUS early pace rating (122) and Magical Mystery owns the field’s highest TimeformUS late pace rating (103).

I am playing against third choice on the morning line Giant Expectations who finished behind subsequent Breeders Cup Classic winner Arrogate last year at Santa Anita. The New York-bred son of Frost Giant shipped to Belmont Park to take advantage of that state’s New York bred program and romped by a combined twelve and quarter lengths in his last two starts. However a closer inspection leaves plenty of question marks shipping back to Southern California facing open company. He broke his maiden by nine and three-quarter lengths on May 29 earning a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and defeated a sub-par field that saw six horses behind him return and only two of them (one second and one third) finish in the money with the four others finishing off the board in their next start. The Peter Eurton trainee returned ten days later to humble New York bred Allowance N1X rivals easily duplicating his 89 Beyer Speed Figure. The belief is that this colt would be better suited shipping back to Saratoga and tackling New York bred company where he is proven to be competitive.

I narrowed this field to four horses including the two morning line favorites but the best price and proven form at this class level happens to be the highest price of my four contenders. KARMA KING (#2) is a Del Mar horse for course with a record of 5-3-2-0 and has affinity for winning or finishing second with eleven first or seconds from twenty-two career starts. The Pure Prize made his last start at Del Mar on more than a year ago on July 15, 2016 at this same class level and distance where he ran second beaten length and half behind the winner Grazen Sky but this gelding won the early pace battle but lost the war in a game effort in defeat. In that race he stalked the dueling leaders between longshot J Serino and tepid post time favorite Westfest as those two locked heads into a torrid 22.21 second opening quarter and Karma King moved up into that fast pace to press the favorite through a 46.54 second half mile. The Brian Koriner trainee took over the lead midway on the far turn and faced a brief challenge from the opportunistic stalker Forest Blue and turned that rival away in the stretch but the early pace took its toll as Grazen Sky rallied from last to blow past Karma King to win by length and half. He earned a 87 Beyer Speed Figure and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure but take nothing away from Karma King’s runner-up performance because he pressed a very fast pace earning way above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+33, +18). This effort took a lot out of this gelding because he was not seen for the remainder of the year. He made his long awaited return to the races off a 338-day layoff on June 18 at this same class level and distance and with his previous record here at Del Mar the belief in this corner is that race was a prep race for this event and he ran an excellent race in defeat considering the extended layoff. According to the HR Trip Notes, Karma King “led early then set a measured pace, kicked away leaving the backstretch, collared leaving the far turn, lost the lead passing mid stretch, never stopped trying, out finished late.” The HR Trip Note writer believes “he might have held even longer had he had a work over the track.” Although the race was not visually impressive with the first six horses separated by two and three-quarter lengths, Karma King showed he has kept his form in tact with his game fourth-place finish beaten less than two-lengths. He should move forward in his second race off the very long layoff and with three works since that come back effort. In addition, he should get a great stalking trip sitting behind the two morning line favorites, Gato Del Oro and Absolutely Stylish, and at giant 15-1 on the morning line he the price play in this competitive Allowance race at Del Mar.

In my exotics I will use three horses that do not include Giant Expectations. My second choice is another price horse, MAGICAL MYSTERY (#10) who broke his maiden off a 177-day layoff in his first start for trainer Scott Hansen on February 12 at Santa Anita where he defeated a terrible field as the second, fourth, and fifth place finishers are now combined one-for-twenty nine in their career. After a failed turf try in his next start, he returned to the main track on May 20 and ran a strong second at this same class level in what has returned to be a “key” race. According to the HR Trip Notes, Magical Mystery “Raced at the back of the pack onto the backstretch, drifted back as the field traveled, improved past the half-mile pole, made a big move along the rail in the far turn, angled out mid stretch, ran at the leader, cut the margin late.” His runner-up performance looks even better when you consider the winner, West Coast, returned to win the Easy Goer Stakes and Grade III Los Alamitos Derby with improved Beyer Speed Figures of 99 and 100 and fifth-place finisher My Italian Babbo returned to win Allowance N1X with career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Unbridled’s Song gelding will be finishing in the lane. GATO DEL ORO (#5) earned the field’s second highest last race 89 Beyer Speed Figure on June 10 and could not have been more impressive in victory as described by HR Trip Note writer. The son of Medaglia D’Oro “broke slow, being pinched back at the start, making his way under a hold along the inside to lead after a 1⁄4 mile, gradually putting away his pace rivals in the turn, kicking home strong enough while slowly drifting out to keep the late challenger at bay.” The strength of that win was flattered when his pace rival in that maiden race, The Rule of King’s, came back on June 23, dropped in for a $75,000 claiming price, and broke his maiden by length and three-quarters earning career best 84 Beyer Speed Figure. He will be the one horse closest to morning line favorite ABSOLUTELY STYLISH (#7). The latter finished a better than looked fourth behind undefeated and now retired Mastery in his career debut last October at Santa Anita. He returned from a 189-day layoff on April 29 and broke his maiden in visually impressive where he won by neck over subsequent next time out winner Honor and Courage who finished seven and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field. The field’s projected leader will take some catching as TimeformUS leader in early pace rating.

The Play: With our top choice Karma King at 15-1 on the morning line and likely will go off above 8-1 come post time the belief is he will at least finish in the top three in his second race off almost a one-year layoff.

WIN bet on (2) KARMA KING at 8-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-5, 2-7, 2-10. Small reverse for each.

Trifecta part-wheel: 5, 7, 10 / 5, 7, 10 / 2

Race 8: Oceanside Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

TimeformUS pace projector believes this race will develop at a very fast early pace and based on a review of the entrants in this race a fast pace is highly likely. Rockin Rudy will go straight to the front but will find company for the lead with Arms Runner right up with the early leaders. In behind that trio are another set of front running types in Vending Machine, All About Mike, and Placido. The horses that will benefit if a pace meltdown happens are Bird is the Word, Bowies Hero, and Fortune of War.

Arms Runner enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (95) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (116). The leader in TimeformUS early pace rating is Rockin Rudy (111) and the leader in late rating is Bird is the Word (99).

I am playing against the undefeated Arms Runner. He defeated a terrible field of maidens in his career debut where from the eight horses that ran back only three of them hit the board in there next start (one second-place finish and two third-place finishes). Last time in the Desert Code he had a perfect stalking trip behind red coded TimeformUS early pace (fast fractions) and rallied to win defeating another sub-par field that only produced two third-place finishes. He will be a short price trying two turns for the first time which is not a strong angle for the Peter Miller barn here a Del Mar. Formulator Fact: trainer Peter Miller wins at only 6% (32/2-0-4) with his starters trying two turns for the first time on the Jimmy Durante turf course here at Del Mar.

In my opinion the key prep race for the Oceanside Stakes happen on May 6 at Santa Anita in the Singletary Stakes where four of the entrants ran in that race and appear in the traditional opening day feature race. That race featured a torrid early pace that saw the leaders earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and set it up perfectly for the closers. I believe a similar setup is likely and my top three choices are the three best closers in this race lead by the winner of the Singletary Stakes, BOWIE’S HERO (#4). The son of Artie Schiller is right at home over this Del Mar turf course where he won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes last September at generous 9-2. After going off form in two subsequent starts, he returned from a six month layoff in the Singletary Stakes where despite a very fast pace to set up for his late kick he had to overcame terrible start that almost saw his rider Thiago Pereira get unseated at the start. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes for that race, Bowie’s Hero “broke on his face at the start of the contest, picked himself up to race at the rear of the field, waited on his pilot into the far turn, loaded, taken eight-wide into the stretch, stormed home over the top, joined a rival mid-stretch, put him away, safe to the wire.” The Phil D’Amato trainee earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure (89) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (114) and the form of that race was validated when the fourth, fifth, and ninth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 94, 87, and 88 respectively. This performance gave his connections plenty of confidence to enter Bowie’s Hero in the Grade III Pennine Ridge at Belmont Park on June 3 where he was out classed where he split a seven horse field despite navigating a clean ground saving trip around both turns and could not quicken to run down Oscar Performance who came back to win the Grade I Belmont Derby earning improved 96 Beyer Speed Figure and duplicate 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. He returns from a forty-six day layoff but showed he can run well fresh as a two-year old in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes and Singletary Stakes. Drawn well, gets sufficient amount of early speed to set up for his late kick, and turning back to his preferred one-mile distance should suit Bowie’s Hero as the winner of the Oceanside Stakes.

I will be using only two others underneath in my exacta plays and both are closers that should benefit from the expected fast early pace. BIRD IS THE WORD (#2) ran second behind our top choice Bowie’s Hero in the Singletary Stakes on May 6 at Santa Anita and he ran second in his most recent start on June 30 versus straight three-year olds at today’s one mile distance and he did not have the smoothest of trips. According to the HR Trip Notes, the son of Birdstone “was prominent early, hung out four-deep into the first turn, settled in the second flight of runners three-deep, picked up his feet three-deep in the far turn, forced six-wide into the stretch, leveled off, ran to the wire, could not stave off the winner.” The amount of ground lost is also reflected in Trakus where he ran forty-four more feet then the winner Double Touch. He gets significant turf rider upgrade to Gary Stevens and he has tactical speed so his jockey can place himself anywhere for his patent late kick. FORTUNE OF WAR (#12) just broke his maiden in his eleventh career start on April 30 where he he put it altogether to deliver a smashing late kick overcoming a slow early pace that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures to win by length and a half coming home the final quarter of a mile in 22.68 seconds. The HR Trip Notes stated that this was “visually impressive, he has a chance to go up the ladder and this race should prove productive.” Sure enough this maiden race proved to be a “key” event as third, fourth, and tenth place finishers all came back to win earning improved Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures in the process. Corey Nakatani takes over in the irons and I expect a patent late charge to the wire.

The Play: The anticipated pace scenario and my stand against Arms Runner will lead my wagers structured with the following bets.

WIN bet on (4) BOWIE’S HERO at 2-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 4-2, 4-12. Small reverse for each.