BEST BET: LADY MAMBA (Race 7, 9-2 ML)
Race 6: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early that does not favor a specific running style but has three horses vying for the early lead. Little Jude, Precious Dixie, and Sheza a Chattykat are the three horses that look to mix it up for the early lead. Delightful Lady, Bernina Star, and Wonderful Lie look to sit in the first flight waiting to pounce on those dueling leaders. Merirosvo and Lake Time will be sitting back and make a patent late run hoping for a pace meltdown to materialize.
Delightful Lady is the morning line favorite and will get plenty of support based strictly on her maiden victory January 16 where she defeated subsequent Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks winner and this year’s favorite for Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks Paradise Woods. However, that race was 184-days ago and she was sent to the sidelines right that after visually impressive maiden victory. She will now make her first start versus winners in a dirt sprint and according to DRF Formulator trainer Richard Baltas has won a paltry 9% (25-2-6-1) with maiden winners making their next start versus winners in a dirt sprint. In addition, she enjoyed an absolute perfect trip in her maiden victory winning by 3-¾ lengths but only earned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure and 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure and those speed figures suggest that she is no standout in her first start off layoff and versus winners. The early pace of this race is composed of three main rivals and one of them is the longer price of the two Richard Baltas trainees and she has a recency advantage over her stable mate.
She broke her maiden for a $100,000 maiden claiming price but SHEZA CHATTYKAT (#7) is the speed of this Allowance N1X sprint and is drawn comfortably outside her two chief pace rivals where she can allow Little Jude and Precious Dixie duel for the early lead and jockey Corey Nakatani sit in the garden spot or prompting the pace in the clear. She faced winners for the first time on May 7 at today’s 6-½ furlong distance and ran second beaten 1-¼ lengths behind Chalon. According to the HR Trip Notes, this daughter of Trappe Shot “prompted early then dueled two-deep down the backside, put her head in front in the stretch, lost the lead past mid-stretch, out-finished to the wire.” This was no ordinary Allowance race as the winner returned to win $150,000 Jersey Girl Stakes on June 11 at Belmont Park with a career best 93 Beyer Speed Figure. She was ambitiously placed next in the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks where she found the jump in class and distance of 1-1/16 not to her liking. According to the HR Trip Notes, she “dashed to the front, set a quick pace down the backstretch, led to the quarter-pole, swarmed on all sides, gave way in the lane.” She earned the field’s highest last race 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field and the race was validated as the second and third-place finishers, Mopotism and Majestic Quality, came back to finish second and third respectively earning comparing Beyer Speed Figures of 90 in the Indiana Oaks in their next start along with It Tiz Well who won the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks with Beyer Speed Figure of 91. The Richard Baltas trainee will now cut back from a route to a sprint on the Del Mar main track according to DRF Formulator he wins at excellent 31% (13-4-1-2) with horses going from route to sprint on the Del Mar main track. In addition, she makes the cut back with a series of three stellar works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as he gave a B for each move but none more impressive her July 24 spin over the Del Mar oval where he commented “Rallied sharply home with a 23.2 last 1/4 looking to have happy feet all the way home.” Jockey Corey Nakatani remains in the irons and I expect this filly to relish the reduction in distances and not having to hook a rival in the caliber of Chalon in this field at what should be a square price.
My other co-top choice is the closer LAKE TIME (#9) who closed with the benefit of a pace meltdown on July 4 to finish third behind the two full sisters: Dis Smart Cat and Dis Cats on the Square. She is eligible to improve as that was her first race off a 228-day layoff and she loves the Del Mar main track having yet to finish worse than third in three starts. Her defeat to subsequent multiple Grade 1 winner Abel Tasman on November 18 was the result of a premature move into very slow fractions. With at least three confirmed speed types in this field, she should have plenty of pace to set up her late run with Gary Stevens reuniting with daughter of Tapizar.
The Play:
WIN bet on (7) SHEZA CHATTYKAT at 7-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 7-3, 7-6, 7-9. No reverse.
Main Exactas: 9-3, 9-6, 9-7. No reverse.
Pick 3: 7, 9 w/ 6 w/ 2, 4, 6, 10, 11 = 2 x 1 x 5 x $2 = $20
Pick 3: 7, 9 w/ 6 w/ 6, 10, 11 = 2 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $6
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor a specific running style. The two Peter Eurton trainees are the fillies that lead the field with TimeformUS early pace ratings with Arrowsphere the likely early leader with stablemate Lady Mamba pressing or tracking that rival in second early. Robin’s Love will look to stalk this leading duo in third early. Trail maidens Scandal and Sweet Connie look to charge from off the pace hoping for a pace meltdown in the stretch to set up for their late kick.
When a horse loses at odds of 1-1, 2-1, 8-5, and 7-5 and more importantly is a trail maiden with eleven starts and seven second place finishes this horse will always get action and that horse is Scandal. In her last three starts routing on the turf at Santa Anita she has either rallied to grab second as she did when she finished second back on April 29 or she rallied, missed, and hung through the stretch as she did back on March 25 and May 20. The gray daughter of Blame will garner plenty of attention because of her close finishes in ten starts on the turf but I am not going to bite. She is a horse you must use underneath but good bet against especially in a race that begins a Guaranteed Late Pick 4.
I doubt that she will go off anywhere near her 9-2 morning line but I always felt that LADY MAMBA (#6) would find a home on the grass based strictly on her pedigree. She was purchased for $1 Million at the Keeneland September 2015 yearling sale and that was the fourth highest priced yearling from the 27 yearlings by the sire War Front who produces 17% turf winners in the past five years. She is by the dam Siren Serenade who was maiden in ten career starts but finished second in three of five routing on the turf. She has produced three winners from three starters including her stablemate Exhale who broke her maiden going a flat mile on the turf back on October 2, 2016 at Santa Anita. This dark bay filly made her career debut back on November 26 during the Del Mar Bing Crosby meet where she finished a dead heat for third beaten 14-¾ lengths behind the favored gate to wire winner Unique Bella. According to the HR Trip Notes, she “Tracked the pacesetter down the backstretch, could not keep pace in the far turn, hand ridden into the stretch, one paced, tagged late for third.” This maiden race earned an excellent 87 Beyer Speed Figure and that speed figure has been confirmed. The winner Unique Bella went on to win the Grade 2 Santa Ynez, Las Virginias, and Grade 3 Santa Ysabel earning Beyer Speed Figures of 91, 99, and 97 respectively. The horse she finished in a dead heat for third, Delightful Lady, returned to break her maiden on January 26 with an 83 Beyer Speed Figure. She will now make her first start off a 245-day layoff and trying the turf and two turns for the first time all categories that her trainer Peter Eurton does not excel with but she has trained like a filly that could be a top prospect according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She worked a bullet six furlongs in 1:11 ⅘ on July 16 that Andy Harrington raved giving it a B+ stating “Full of run all the way in 46.1, 111.0 moving like a very nice sort indeed.” Flavien Prat who was aboard this filly in her career debut and has been working this filly in the morning remains aboard and she has enough early speed where she will track but not duel with stable mate Arrowsphere and if she runs to her turf laden pedigree and her works leading up to her three-year old debut it will take a huge effort from one of the trial maidens to beat this second start three-year old filly as my BEST BET on the card.
The Play: The belief in this corner is that Lady Mamba has found the right field to make her second start off the layoff and her first start around two turns on a surface she is bred to adore. She is the vehicle of all my multi-race wagers starting in a Pick 3 in Race 6 and of course the beginning of the Pick 4.
WIN bet on (6) LADY MAMBA at 3-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-5. No reverse.
Small Exacta: 6-7. No reverse.
Pick 3: 6 w/ 2, 4, 6, 10, 11 w/ 2, 3, 4 = 1 x 5 x 3 x $2 = $30
Pick 3: 6 w/ 2, 4, 6, 10, 11 w/ 2, 3 = 1 x 5 x 2 x $1 = $10
Race 8: Claiming $50,000 to $40,000, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds
TimeformUS pace projector has this race not developing at a fast early pace but it can with the two front runners in this race. Who’s Out and Sutton Impact have been on the lead setting red-coded TimeformUS pace figures in their sprint races and that type of early speed could result in those two horses vying for the lead through faster than average early fractions. Big League will look to track those two horses in the perfect spot in third early. Tavasco Road and Regal Born will hope for a pace meltdown stalking this pace duel in mid-pack and morning line favorite Gentrified will be charging from the rear of the field hoping to get the same pace setup he received last time.
I will be using the morning line favorite, Gentrified, as a horse underneath in my exactas and defensively on top but the main play is too beat him. He is undefeated in two starts at today’s seven furlong distance but his last race on June 17 that earned the field’s highest last race 79 Beyer Speed Figure was a complete setup. The pacesetter Who’s Out sent out to the front and establish too fast an early pace earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures earning above average Moss Pace Figures for the first time half mile (+13, +10). The Malibu Moon gelding took advantage of this race shape to rally from sixth to score the 2-½ length victory. He now returns for the same claiming price for Vladimir Cerin and while he is realistically spotted by his trainer another horse makes an important drop in class and will offer a hint of value.
My favorite angle to handicap these restricted three-year old claiming races are to find horses that exit races where they faced older rivals and now are facing their age group. In addition if that horse or horses is dropping for a claiming price for the first time even better and BIG LEAGUE (#11) fits that profile perfectly. The Speightstown gelding finish in the money in all three starts as two-year old including a debut victory and a second in the Grade 2 Best Pal over this Del Mar main track. The Peter Miller trainee made his three-year old debut on April 16 off a 210-day layoff and he finished third beaten 8-½ lengths but had a track bias that worked against him. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, the dark bay or brown gelding “prompted the pace four-deep, outrun around the far turn, dropped back three-wide into the lane, distant third.” He was parked wide every step over a main track that strongly favored inside lanes as the winner Aristocratic led gate to wire racing on the good inside lanes throughout. Next he switched to the turf racing on the downhill turf course for the first time in the Desert Code Stakes and he was used as a rabbit where he disputed a very fast early pace good enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures and weaken badly to finish sixth beaten 14-lengths behind his stablemate and perfect trip stalking winner Arms Runner. He returned to the main track and dropped in class to Allowance N1X on the main track on June 17 versus older rivals and defeated only one horse beaten 5-lengths behind the gate to wire winner Blue Anchor. Owner Rockingham Ranch and trainer Peter Miller have decided now to drop this horse for claiming price for the first time and now faces only his age group after facing stakes company or older allowance rivals in his three starts this year. He should get a great trip from outermost post position ten in a ten horse field with Who’s Hot and Sutton Impact vying for the early lead and jockey Paco Lopez can have Big League in the garden spot in third. The realistic class drop should make a big difference returning to his favorite main track at a hint of a price.
The Play:
WIN bet on (11) BIG LEAGUE at 4-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 11-2, 11-4, 11-6, 11-10. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: Grade 1 Bing Crosby, 6 Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward
The defection of Coastline and Big Macher mean that TimeformUS pace projector feel this race will boil down to the two horses that have the most early speed and they are DreFong and St. Joe Bay. Two horses that will be tracking this leading duo down the backstretch are Roy H and Moe Candy. I expect Ransom the Moon to be sitting in midpack hoping for a pace meltdown to materialize and and as usual Solid Wager and Kobe’s Back will be making their respective late charge in the stretch.
The 111 Beyer Speed Figure and 133 TimeformUS Speed Figure that Roy H earned in the True North Handicap stands out in this race. It was not only the field’s highest last race speed figure but also a career best for the More than Ready gelding in fourteen starts. The question is can he duplicate that speed figure in today’s race and this is where I am going to take a stand against this Peter Miller trainee. The conditions of his True North Handicap victory played perfectly to him as he was parked four wide chasing or pressing a very slow early pace, made a move to grab the lead past the quarter pole, and kicked away to post the 2-½ length margin of victory. One cannot discuss that win without mentioning the main track on June 9 that strongly favored horses on the outside paths and Roy H rode the bias throughout this victory. Although the early fractions were very slow according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (-5, -4), the pace collapsed as the first three leaders finished 5th, 6th, and 8th as the first four horses that crossed the wire rallied from 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th. Lastly, the last race speed figure was not validated as four horses returned to finish off the board with three of them, Stallwalking Dude, Fellowship, and Green Gratto, earning worse Beyer Speed Figure in there next start. For all these reasons and the expected short price as the second choice I am going to play against him and focus my attention on one of the two speed horses that should be vying for the early lead.
Prior to his debacle in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan, ST. JOE BAY (#3) was a terror on the main track sprinting recording three consecutive victory including a dead heat win in the Midnight Lute with his stable mate Solid Wager. He caught my attention when he posted smashing 6-½ length victory over this Del Mar main track in the last day of the 2016 Del Mar Bing Crosby meet. In that race broke running from the rail to battle for the early lead with 46-1 longshot Guy Code, dueled that rival into defeat (finished last beaten 25 lengths), turned away a challenge from the favorite Jazzy Times, and romped in the stretch earning a career best 104 Beyer Speed Figure and 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Although visually impressive, I felt this victory was with the grain of the track bias as December 4, 2016 card at Del Mar strongly favored inside paths and St. Joe Bay rode the bias the entire way. After dead heat victory with his stablemate Solid Wager in a muddy edition of the Midnight Lute Stakes, he proved that his victory on December 4 was no fluke when he delivered a 2-¼ length victory in the Grade 2 Palos Verdes on February 4 where he ran fast early, middle, and late. In that race, he battled for the early lead with Ocho Ocho Ocho through a fast first quarter of mile per Moss Pace Figures (+7). The gelding by Saint Anddan did not get breather as second choice Moe Candy ranged up three wide approaching the quarter but that did not stop St. Joe Bay as he put away both challenges and kicked away to earn 103 Beyer Speed Figure and 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Four of his five career victories were on a fast main track and I am going to dismiss his debacle behind country’s leading sprinter, Mind Your Biscuits, in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He is reunited with Kent Desormeaux who was aboard him for his previous three sprint victories and he has been training fast for his return with six consecutive works including a 58 ⅕ from the gate on July 18 that saw the second fastest move clock in 59 ⅘. He enjoys a scrap for the early lead evidenced by his previous three victories and being drawn outside of DreFong and his affinity for the Del Mar main track were the two keys that made him the selection to post the mild upset in the meets first Grade 1.
The Play:
WIN bet on (3) ST. JOE BAY at 3-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 3-2, 3-4. Small reverse for each.
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