Singing Kitty Highlights a Competitive Sunday Card at Del Mar

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and up

TimeformUS pace projector has this race going at an early pace that does not favor horses running on the early lead of coming from off the pace. From the rail, Blue Navy Blue will go straight to the early lead from the rail with Exhale chasing that rival down the backstretch and Conquest Sabre Cat will not be too far behind that early pace pressing or tracking the early pace in third. Horses that will be in the first flight right behind this early pace will be Feldini and Ral Rue as both horses look to get first run on the early leaders. Deep closers such as Dark Energy, Aztec Warrior, and Bedeviled will hope the pace collapses to set up for their late kick.

This race is an excellent gambling opportunity because I look to defeat morning line favorite Bedeviled (#11). He ran second for a maiden claiming price of $75,000 on June 18 behind the gate to wire winner Fabozzi who was able to get away with soft early pace through the first half mile (23.80 and 47.81). In his last start the Lookin at Lucky colt was able to get a fast early pace on July 31 behind a quick pace battle between He Could and Dance Hall Doctor, moved up closer on the far turn, rallied between rivals through the stretch, and one-paced through the stretch losing second to the pace presser He Could. He earned the field’s highest last race 78 Beyer Speed Figure on turf but that field was bunched with the first seven horses separated by only 4-¼ lengths. Drawn outside he will need another fast pace setup and negotiate traffic in this full field. I look for horses that will be forwardly placed but not necessarily on the lead to win this event.

The Scott Hansen trainee, Feldini (#9) stretches out following two respectable sprint efforts and this Twirling Candy should be set to graduate in his third start following ninety-three day layoff. He made his first start off a brief freshening on June 26 where he tracked the uncontested leader Candy Promises in third, pushed along on the rail around the far turn to keep up with the early leaders, angled three wide into the stretch, and finished clear of the rest of the field in a race where the first two finishers ran second-and-first after the first call and he attempted to stalk the pace and rally over a main track that strongly favored inside-speed in a race that produced two next-time out winners (Candy Promises and Gabo’s Macondo). He returned four weeks later in his second start on lasix and with the blinkers and ran respectable second in a strong maiden event won by Papa Papa Papa (93 Beyer Speed Figure). In that race he settled off the pace in mid-pack along the inside behind three-horse speed duel thru quick opening quarter per Moss Pace Figures (+4). He was shuffled back to last into the far turn, re-rallied from the rear to pick up horses on the far turn, angled outside into the stretch, and rallied for second. The strength of that maiden race was confirmed when the winner returned to win Starter Allowance by three-quarters of a length earning 91 Beyer Speed Figure. He will make his first start on turf for trainer Scott Hansen who wins at 21% (3-for-14) in the past five years with his starters trying turf for the first time and he is by 12% first time turf sire Twirling Candy who wins at 16% overall with his turf starters. The bay colt will stretch back out to two turns from two sprints and that should allow excellent turf rider Drayden Van Dyke (four turf wins this meet) to settle this colt in the second flight right behind the expected pacesetter Blue Navy Blue and Exhale early and get first run on the leaders ahead of the closers Dark Energy, Aztec Warrior, and morning line favorite Bedeviled. In his first start on turf at 6-1 on the morning line and bred to love the surface switch to turf for a trainer that is successful with that move makes Feldini the selection to upset the first leg of the Pick Six.

In my exotics I will use two horses. Exhale (#3) was bet down to the 5-2 post time favorite based on a series of stellar workouts per National Turf’s Andy Harrington and superb pedigree. He cost $500,000 at the Keeneland September 2014 yearling sales which is the highest priced yearling by Scat Daddy and is by the Unbridled’s Song dam Siren Serenade whose second dam the multiple Gr. 1 winner Versailles Treaty. He entered with three consecutive B+ works capped off by a 48 ⅘ move on July 17 and the beautiful bay colt did not run to expectations of his workouts finishing in front of two rivals behind gate to wire winner Papa Papa Papa on July 23 here at Del Mar. He trailed early, made a move leaving the half mile pole to inch closer into and around the far turn, lost his punch into the stretch, and weaken through the stretch as jockey Mike Smith wisely wrapped up on this colt through the stretch while on his left lead to the wire. The surface switch should pose no issue for this bay colt as Scat Daddy is 14% first time turf sire and 16% overall with turf starters and comes into this race with a pair of B works per Andy Harrington. From a pace standpoint, he should get a beautiful trip tracking Blue Navy Blue early and he will get first run on that pacesetter. Angel Eria (#8) makes her United States debut versus males but that should be no issue for this Irish bred as she faced males in three of her first four starts. She was shipped to North America because this filly has a clear affinity for firm ground as she has recorded two seconds from three starts on firm ground with her only off the board finish happen when she lost by 1-¾ lengths. She makes her North American debut with series of stamina works including seven furlong work on August 7 that Andy Harrington gave a B with today’s rider Flavien Prat in the irons. Trainer Neil Drysdale is 20% (5-for-25) with foreign shippers the past five years.

The Play: I look to beat the horses that have recent form on turf such as Bedeviled, Dark Energy, Aztec Warrior, and Conquest Sabre Cat. I believe the surface switch to turf and stretch out to two turns will suit my top choice Feldini perfectly.

WIN bet on (9) FELDINI

Main Exactas: 9-3, 9-8. Small reverse for each.

Pick 3: 3, 8, 9 / 3, 4, 5 / 7, 12 = 3 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $36

Race 5: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $20,000, 1-Mile, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector has identified two horses that will be on or near the lead but at an early pace that does not favor a specific running style. Filly on Fire stretching out to a route will be on the lead but will prompted by Miss Star Maker into the backstretch. Melanistic and Bako Sweets look to be in the first flight behind the leaders. Cordiality will be in mid-pack along with morning line favorite Allsquare. The Spiral Jetter and Glamsquad will hope for a pace meltdown to set up their late kick.

She will be stretching out to one-mile on a fast main track for the first time but based on her two sprint efforts, Filly on Fire (#5) is strictly the one that must be caught and she comes into this California-bred Allowance N1X in sneaky good form for new trainer Michael Pender. I will draw a line through her May 22 down the hillside turf course where he failed to hit the board in her previous turf start. She ran fourth beaten four-lengths behind the opportunistic closer Margie’s Minute on April 17 in a race where the fast early pace set it up perfectly for the closer. In that race, this Stormin Fever filly was parked four wide early chasing the uncontested leader Sugar Spice and made a brief bid leaving the backstretch into the far turn to challenge for the lead, dropped back into the quarter pole, and ran evenly to the wire defeating two horses to the wire. She raced close to a very fast early pace for a half mile per the Moss Pace Figures (+8, +3). After her turf debacle in her next start, she switched to her preferred dirt main track on July 1 at Santa Anita and ran second beaten five and half lengths behind the 2-1 second choice My Palmilla. However this dark bay or brown filly ran the best race in defeat winning the early pace battle for the early lead but losing the war to the opportunistic stalker who rallied from fourth early. In that race, she broke running to the early pace but found herself sandwiched between two other pace rivals Radiant Journey and Moonie as those three set a blazing early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+9, +3) early. She continued battling for the early lead around the far turn when the winner My Palmilla blew by her to take over the lead into the stretch but Filly on Fire stayed on through the stretch to be second finishing 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field. She ran the best race in defeat as her two pace rivals weaken badly from this pace battle to finish fifth beaten 8-½ lengths and sixth beaten 15-¾ lengths. She will make her first start off the claim for trainer Michael Pender who is winless in four starters with his starters off the claim stretching out from a sprint to a route. She gets blinkers back on, stretching out, and gets hustling rider Martin Pedroza which means she will go straight to the early lead. She has bounced back with four workouts over the Del Mar main track including a best of seven six furlong move in 1:12 ⅖ on August 1 that Andy Harrington gave a B- commenting “Pretty filly kicked home sharply in 37.3, 100.3 (23.0 LQ) galloping out 6f in 113.2. Feeling well; unclear if two turns is within her scope.” She is quicker than her expected pace rival Miss Star Maker and might make an uncontested lead if she is left alone. At generous 8-1 on the morning line she is one of my best longshot bets on a price laden Sunday card at Del Mar.

In my exotics, I will three horses drawn directly inside of our top choice Filly on Fire. In order of preference, Allsquare (#4) enters this race with two second-place finishers but both efforts were to her stablemate the undefeated Enola Gray. She was part of the slow early pace on May 28 where she chased home her favored stablemate to the wire to be a clear second in a race where the third-place finisher Cheekaboo returned to win Gr. 2 Honeymoon on the turf with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and fifth place finisher Hacktivism returned to win Allowance N1X on turf with 78 Beyer Speed Figure. She shorten up to seven furlongs in the Fleet Treat Stakes and trailed behind a moderate early pace pressed by the favored winner and rallied to grab second from the early leader Fantasy of Luck in a highly rated race (101 Beyer Speed Figure). The pace projector sees this Square Eddie filly in mid-pack but she has more position early speed and could find herself in the first flight behind the early pace. The field’s top last race 85 Beyer Speed Figure will appreciate escaping the shadows of her more fancied stablemate and enters this race with B work coming into this race per Andy Harrington on August 8. The Spiral Jetter (#3) has finished behind both Enola Gray and Allsquare in her last two starts but one can make a case she ran the better race in their only start routing on the main track in the May 28 Melair Stakes at Santa Anita. She trailed behind a very slow early pace, unleashed a crazy premature move while very wide around the far turn, sustained that bid to mid-stretch, and lost her punch to lose by 8-¼ lengths. The Don’tsellmeshort filly ran 66 feet, 49 feet, and 35 feet more than the first three finishers per Trakus. She turned back to one turn in Fleet Street Stakes on July 22 and stalked the pace in good position on the rail down the backstretch, moved into third at the top of the stretch, and was out finished by the pacesetter Fantasy of Luck for third. She switches to Rafael Bejarano for the first time and he is 7/3-1-2 in the past five years for trainer Andy Mathias. Cordiality (#2) exits a series of lesser competition at Los Alamitos, Golden Gate, and Sacramento but enters this race with a four-race win streak. He overcame a slow race shape to rally from next to last to win going away on July 8. Trainer Mark Glatt wins at 36% (4-for-11) with his starters off the claim in a dirt route per DRF Formulator and teams up with the meets leading rider Flavien Prat in the irons.

The Play: My expectation in this race is that Filly on Fire will go straight to the lead with blinkers and Martin Pedroza in the saddle and will attempt to make every pole a winning one especially that the early fractions will be slower than the pace she faced in her last two dirt sprints.

WIN bet on (5) FILLY ON FIRE.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-4. Small reverse.

Small Exacta: 5-2. Small reverse.

Race 6: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and upward

A basic glance at the running lines of the entrants in this field and one can see why TimeformUS pace projector anticipates a very fast early pace. St. Joe Bay who has been on the lead at the first pace call in his last three starts will be on the early lead but will have company early. Act stretching out will be forwardly placed close to that fast early pace along with Hobbits Hero and Shortsstormcoming. Horses that will be in mid-pack behind this fast early pace hoping the fast pace collapses are Cardiac, morning line favorite Zinvor, and He Will. In behind these horses that will benefit from an enervating early pace are Fritz Johansen, Tuco, and Reflected Star.

I do have a play against in this competitive Allowance race on turf and it is the second choice on the morning line Tuco. He ran fourth on opening day of the Santa Anita winter meet where the winner, sixth, and tenth-place finishers came back to win their next start. He was my top choice in his second start in North America and ran second behind pace pressing winner Kenjistorm who won the early pace battle and won the war as Tuco benefited from this fast pace to rally from mid-pack to finish second. He will now make his first start off a 190-day layoff and according to DRF Formulator trainer Doug O’Neil does not excel with returnees making their first start off a long layoff in a turf route. In the past five years, he has sent eight starters to the starting gate in a turf route off a layoff between 180 to 200 day layoff and NONE of them won and none of them finished in the money. This is an important statistic because Tuco is returning off a long layoff in a turf route and will get plenty of support at the windows based on leading turf rider Flavien Prat in the irons.

The anticipated fast early pace that TimeformUS projects and what is seen on paper will allow jockey Joe Talamo to drop over from the outermost post position and allow Rare Candy (#12) the ability to track from off the pace and make one run. The David Hofmans trainee has lost at odds of 2-5 and 4-5 in his last two starts but the his winless record in six starts on a fast main track strongly suggest he has been running on the wrong surface. After finishing second in the California Chrome Stakes on April 30 where he parlayed a very slow early pace to be outgamed by the winner Uncle Lino, he dropped in class to face Allowance N1X on the fast main track on May 29 and finished off the board at 2-5. Adding the blinkers, he showed early speed and was immediately challenge for the early lead by his pace rival Curlin Rules as those two rivals opened up on the rest of the field establishing a moderate early pace for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures. He continued being pressed all the way around the far turn, was collared into the stretch, and out finished to the wire behind the perfect trip stalking winner Dalmore who returned to win the Gr. 3 Affirmed Handicap with a career best 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He returned to the same class level on July 2 where he was in comfortable position stalking dueling leaders To the Bar and Brave Act in fourth early. He moved up three wide under a drive on the far turn, lost his punch into the stretch, and weaken to third in a race where he inherited that position. Although that Allowance N1X has returned to be a negative race with three horses returning to finish 6th, 6th, and 5th, Rare Candy deserves another chance because of the switch to the turf. He broke his maiden over this Jimmy Durante turf course at today’s one-mile distance and progeny of Twirling Candy win at 26% rate with turf routes per DRF Formulator. Moreover he has returned with four workouts over the Del Mar main track including impressive six furlong move in 1:12 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Came home willingly while working solo in a slower than given 37.2, 113.3 galloping well to the 6 1/2f pole in 127.1. Going well; always thought this one's preferred surface was the grass.” In field loaded with early speed his stalk and pounce style will be more effective on turf than dirt and is generous 8-1 on the morning line after going off as the favorite in his last two starts.

In my exotics I will recommend using three horses. Our second preference was our top choice on July 24, Zinvor (#7) who I thought was going to settle off the early pace and stalk but was sent for the early lead where he establish a measured early pace under pressure from the longshot Image of Joplin, shook free of that rival to open up a 1-½ length lead around the far turn, maintained that margin through the stretch, and held off the late bid of the favored Macro Access to win by three-quarters of a length earning the field’s highest last race 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The Tribal Rule gelding is undefeated in two starts over the Del Mar turf course and his three victories on turf have been at today’s one-mile distance. Although trainer Mark Glatt is 15% (2-for-13) with his starters off the claim in a turf route, he bounced back with a sharp half mile spin on August 7 that Andy Harrington gave a B commenting “Drew clear from a pair of unrelated workers flashing his usual zip in 24.2, 48.3 out fast in 100.2. Looks like a very nice claim.” Jockey Santiago Gonzalez remains in the irons and can lead or stalk from off the early pace. Act (#3) is interesting prospect stretching out to two turns for the first time and dropping from an open stakes and Allowance N2X into this Allowance N1X event. He set the early pace, drifted in at mid-stretch as he was tired horse, and weaken to finish fifth on July 20 where the winner Why Two returned to win Green Flash Handicap with 97 Beyer Speed Figure and runner-up Bottle Rocket returned to win Allowance N2X with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. He switches to jockey Drayden Van Dyke who was aboard when this War Front horse broke his maiden and has four turf wins this meet. The Peter Eurton trainee returned to trained very well over this turf course since but Andy Harrington commented on his August 7 work that he has “Plenty of run here; getting this one to relax is the key.” Reflected Star (#10) covered 46ft and 31ft more than the winner Zinvor and Macro Access to finish third on July 24. He will get a fast pace to set up for his late kick and Victor Espinoza remains in the irons for the third consecutive time.

The Play: The belief is the surface switch to turf and removing the blinkers are the ingredients for Rare Candy to emerge victorious. With the exception of Act who will be close to the early lead, I look for the early pace to collapse for horses stalking or coming from well off the early pace. At a price above 8-1 I will also recommend betting ACT to win as well.

WIN bet on (3) ACT to WIN at 8-1 or better

WIN bet on (12) RARE CANDY to WIN at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 12-3, 12-7, 12-10. Small reverse for each.

Additional Exacta: 7-12, 12-7.

Two Priced Contenders Highlight Friday's Card at Del Mar

Race 6: Starter Allowance, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward

On a basic review of the running lines in this field one can anticipate a really fast early pace and TimeformUS pace projector sees this race unfolding at a rapid clip. Touching Rainbows will go straight for the early lead but will be chased or pressed by Dirt in your Face and Knight of Drama down the backstretch. My Son John, Junior Gilliam, and Radio Silent will be midpack getting first run ahead of the closers Spitfire and Lamaan.

The morning line favorite Radio Silent anticipates to get a fast early pace to set up for his stalking style but he has failed more than once as the favorite. In seven starts this Candy Ride colt has lost as the favorite three times and in his last two starts has been the beneficiary of two fast paced race scenario and has not lived up to expectations at 6-5 and 7-5 respectively. He will receive strong support at the windows even though his trainer has yet to find the Winner’s Circle here at Del Mar in eight starts this meet and his last race 77 Beyer Speed Figure gives him no advantage over this field that have run equal or faster than Radio Silent in their most recent starts. For all those reasons I will look to beat him from the win status but his three runner-up efforts make him a prime horse to use underneath in the exacta or trifecta wagers.

He lost his only start on a fast main track by 11-¼ lengths but Lamaan (#4) will be facing the easiest field he has faced in three starts in 2016. The Henrythenavigator gelding made his first start as a four-year old off a layoff of more than six months on May 29 and ran he respectable fourth defeating more than half the field in what has returned to be “key” race. In that race on the turf he raced in midpack between rivals early behind fast early pace set by Boone Docks early (22.43 and 45.63). The pace continued to be lively as Gunslinger made a premature move around the far turn into the teeth of that hot early pace, Lamaan continued saving ground on the rail into the far turn, moved up, split rivals into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire to be fourth finishing in front of Gunslinger who came back to win with an 81 Beyer Speed Figure and Boone Docks who came back to win his next two starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 87 and 88 respectively. He switched to the main track on July 2 in a spot where he cannot be claimed, Allowance N1X, written for horses which broke their maiden on a turf or synthetic track. He fit the conditions of this race because he broke his maiden on the turf at Golden Gate on October 31, 2015. The Paul Aguirre trainee was sent off as the longest shot on the board at 34-1 and finished last after chasing the uncontested gate to wire winner To the Bar towards the rear of the field while saving ground on the rail and made no impact beaten 11-¼ lengths in a highly rated affair that earned 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Despite this defeat, the 77 Beyer Speed Figure he earned is the co-highest last race speed in the field and now he drops in class to this Starter Allowance event restricted to horses which have started for a claiming price of $50,000 or less and he fits the conditions because was risked and claimed for $25,000 on May 29. He will get a significant weight allowance from seven to ten pounds with the hustling apprentice Chad Lindsay in the irons. This gelding has three works over this Del Mar main track including a five furlong move from the gate in 1:00 ⅘ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington caught going faster stating “Made up 7 lengths on barnmate and a martin trainee going smoothly in 36.1, 100.0 (23.4 LQ). Maybe some perk up for the Aguirre barn.” He will go off at a juicy price but he fits on speed figures, is at the right class level, and odds will compensate for the fact he was beaten double digit lengths in his only dirt start.

In my exotics I will use another closer Spitfire (#2). The Artie Schiller gelding returned as a new gelding in his first race on the main track here at Del Mar on July 24 and encountered a very fast early pace that set-up perfectly for his closing kick. From his outside post position seven he angled over to the rail and saved ground as the leader Storm the Shore and his pace rival Above Board set fast fractions through the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+11, +7). He had dead aim on the tired leaders into the stretch and rolled by them to win by 4-¼ lengths earning a 75 Beyer Speed Figures that is the second highest last race speed figure in this field. He should receive another perfect race set up for his closing kick as Joe Talamo can allow this gelding to break, find his stride early as Touching Rainbows will set a rapid early pace while pressured by Dirt in your Face and Knight of Drama and can make the last run.

The Play: In this field of eight I look to limit the number of combinations I play in my exacta wagers so I will restrict it to my top two choices Lamaan and Spitfire and only use morning line favorite Radio Silent underneath.

WIN bet on (4) LAMAAN

Main Exacta Box: 4, 2

Small Exactas: 2-7, 4-7. No reverse.

Race 7: Green Flash Handicap, 5 Furlongs Turf, Three-year olds and up

The early pace of this race on paper is as straightforward as TimeformUS pace projector predicts two horses that will compose the early pace of this race. Rocket Heat who has pressed Pure Sensation who has five turf sprint victories will go straight for the early lead but will be hounded or chased by Richard’s Boy early as those two look to separate themselves from the field early. No Silent and Holy Lute will be position behind this duel early looking to get first tun. Recent Allowance N2X winner Why Two will be position in mid-pack of ahead of closers Hunt, Horse Laugh, and returnee Sawyer’s Hill.

He has a splendid record of 4-3-1-0 over this Del Mar turf course at today’s five furlong distance and that will attract many over to Rocket Heat (#7) but I am going to try to beat this Latent Heat gelding. The Vann Belvoir trainee accomplished biggest victory with the beneficiary of an uncontested lead in the Turf Sprint on May 6 at Churchill Downs. In that race, he was able to set the early pace down the backstretch with little early pressure, shook free on the far turn, kicked away in the lane, and was dominant to the wire with career best 105 Beyer Speed Figure. He was caught in the final sixteenth of a mile in the Jim McCay Stakes at Pimlico by a pair of opportunistic stalkers in Ben’s Cat and Spring to the Sky who rallied from 4th and 3rd after the first quarter of a mile to catch this uncontested leader. In his next two starts he got caught in a speed duel with the speedy Pure Sensation and paid the price for it in the lane weakening to finish 10th and 5th respectively. He returns to Del Mar with only one half mile work in thirty-four days and it did not impress National Turf’s Andy Harrington as he stated this was a “Very disappointing spin for this gelding taken care of crossing the line while going the last 3f in 13.0, 39.1. More life required.” He projects to be on the lead per TimeformUS pace projector but will be chased or pressed by Richard’s Boy early and might not be 100% cranked up for this race.

A son of Bob and John that showed signs of talent as a three-year old but did not pan out as his connections hoped, Why Two (#3) won more impressively than his head margin of victory would suggest in his only start over this Jimmy Durante turf course at this distance on July 20. He did show flashes of returning to top form with an excellent third-place finish behind King’s Bishop bound DreFong on July 4 at Santa Anita. In that race he sat on the rail chasing the loose leader Guy Code who was allowed to set an uncontested lead through a very fast opening quarter per Moss Pace Figures (+9). He continued on the rail as DreFong made his for the lead after a 43.80 second half mile, moved up into second into the stretch, and lost the battle for the runner-up spot by the opportunistic closer The Gomper in a highly rated sprint that earned 103 Beyer Speed Figure. The Michael Machosky trainee was placed on the turf for the first time on July 20 and he had to overcome a very wide journey per Trakus to win by a head. He was parked three wide stalking the congested front end early lead by the pacesetter Act early. He made his move on the far turn while parked four wide through the turn and had aim on the leader into the stretch where he rallied past that tired pacesetter and held off the late charge of Bottle Rocket to win by a head. Despite the margin of victory this was a better than looked win because he covered 31ft and 15ft more than the second and third place finishers. The form of this race received a significant upgrade when the runner-up, third-place, and seventh-place finisher returned to run 1st, 4th, and 2nd in their next start in the same common race August 10 here at Del Mar. Although the TimeformUS pace projector sees this gelding placed towards mid-pack, he does have more positional early speed as his third-place finish to DreFong on July 4 would indicate. I believe hot turf riding Norberto Arroyo Jr. (four turf wins this meet) will save ground in the first flight behind the dueling leaders Rocket Heat and Richard’s Boy early, continued riding the rail around the far turn, and deliver this gelding’s late kick. Trainer and jockey teamed up with Secreto Primero (August 3, $4.10-1) and can deliver this trainer’s third victory at five furlongs on this turf course at what should be a juicy price.

In my exotics, I believe the only horse that can contend for the win that will be part of the early pace is Richard’s Boy (#6) who was my top choice in the Sensational Star on February 27 at Santa Anita where he set the pace at each call but was worn down by opportunistic stalker Boozer to lose by a head. While the turnback is questionable for Hunt, the cut back to five furlongs should pose no issue for this Peter Miller trainee as he is undefeated at this distance from two starts. Jockey Victor Espinoza who was aboard this gelding lone victory over this layout last November is back aboard and should get the best trip sitting off Rocket Heat and get first run of the stalkers and closers. Hunt (#1) is on a roll as he returns from a 68-day layoff with a record of four wins and one third from his last five starts sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita. In his most recent victory in Siren Lure Stakes he chase the uncontested leader Act who set a quick opening quarter in 21.58 seconds, continued hunting down that rival down the hill, made his run entering the dirt crossing and into the main turf course, and won going away earning the field’s highest last race 100 Beyer Speed Figure over subsequent Wickerr Handicap winner Toowindytohaulroux. A splendid B+ move on August 4 suggest this Phil D’Amato trainee is sharp but the lone concern is the distance too short for him and this race appears to be a prep with the ultimate goal being Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.  

The Play: The belief in this corner is that Rocket Heat is not 100% cranked up for his return to Del Mar and that will leave him vulnerable when Richard’s Boy attacks him on the far turn and when closers such as Why Two and Hunt are running in the stretch. I will construct my wagers looking to beat Rocket Heat from finishing first or second.

WIN bet on (3) WHY TWO

Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-6. Small reverse for each.

Juno Is Primed for Winning Effort

Race 6: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles, Three year olds and up

The TimeformUS pace projector and my personal review of this race sees this 1-1/16 miles favoring horses on or near the early lead. The logical pacesetter will be the seven-year old Got Even who will go straight to the front and should have an uncontested lead going into the backstretch. Those that will be chasing this Stephen Got Even gelding in the first flight are Ultimate Luck, Tribal Jewel, and Silver Spirit. Foxtrot Romeo and Saint Dermot will drop to mid-pack and Go Long will hope a fast pace materializes for his late kick.

The play against in this race is the morning line favorite and the horse with the highest last race dirt 91 Beyer Speed Figure Saint Dermot. The Ghostzapper gelding has a record of one win, two second-place finishers, and one third from his last four starts and defeated in that one victory our second preference Tribal Jewel. In their only encounter on July 4 at Santa Anita, Saint Dermot was the recipient of getting ten pounds from the 4-5 favorite Tribal Jewel. Today only three pounds separate them  and while Tribal Jewel will enjoy the return to Del Mar with a record of 5-2-0-1 the same cannot be said for Saint Dermot who is 2-0-0-0.

He was my top choice on opening day and he almost equal his best Beyer Speed Figure from 2015 and finds a much easier pace scenario than his last two starts, Got Even (#5) is the selection to take this field gate to wire. The Stephen Got Even gelding does have a knack of beings the bridesmaid with twenty second or third-place finishers from forty-seven starts but has caught some wicked really quick rivals that have out-sprinted him for the early lead in his last two starts and today’s pace scenario being that quick horse that will set the early pace. He made his first start off the claim for trainer Bill Spawr on May 6 off a one-hundred and five day layoff and he was out-sprinted for the early lead by the quick St. Joe Bay who set fast fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+4, +6). He was out-run around the far turn by the pacesetter and continued chasing that rival all the way to mid-stretch before giving away to finish fifth beaten 4-¾ lengths in a race where the fast fractions set it up perfectly for the opportunistic closer Big Tire to pull the 10-1 upset. His connections freshened this dark bay or brown gelding for Del Mar where he shown an affinity for the seaside oval even though he has yet to visit the Winner’s Circle in thirteen starts but has finished second or third in eight of them. He returned from a seventy-day hiatus on opening day where he went off at generous 10-1 and he won the early battle for the early lead but lost the war behind the opportunistic stalker Chief of Staff. He was immediately asked out of the gate to show early speed but was out-sprinted for the lead by 30-1 longshot Mad Bum and jockey Edwin Maldonado was forced to rate off that longshot leader as those two opened up a six-length lead on the next closest rival as the leader set a very fast early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+9, +7). He made his move into the teeth of that pace to grab the lead approaching the quarter pole but was immediately challenged by the opportunistic stalking winner, tried to stay on gamely to mid-stretch, and only lost second by the closing rally of Warden of the West who benefited from this fast pace to rally from last to get second. The Bill Spawr trainee earned a 89 Beyer Speed Figure which is the second highest last race dirt speed figure in this field and he earned this figure pressing an above average early pace, putting away his longshot pace rival who weaken to last beaten 17-¾ lengths, and only lost second to a closer. He is once again not risked for the optional claiming price of $40,000 a positive sign and he came on July 31 with a B workout that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Continues to train with good life in 24.1, 48.0 out well in 101.0, Hard knocking 7 year old is going well.” There are no St. Joe Bay or crazy longshots such as Mad Bum to interfere with Got Even making the early lead in this 1-1/16 contest and with regular rider Edwin Maldonado in the irons he should make the early lead and prove a very tough rival to run down at a hint of a price.

In our exotics I will use two other horses but the main contender in our exacta box will be our second preference Tribal Jewel (#4). The Tribal Rule gelding returns to Del Mar where he has winning habit at the seaside oval with two victories from five starts. The Richard Baltas trainee has finished first or second in two of his last three starts. In his lone victory this year on May 19 he found himself pressing a moderate early pace outside of his his two speed rivals, took on the pacesetter Conquest Cobra at the quarter pole, and proved a game winner to win by a head in a race that was flattered as the runner-up returned to win two and three starts later with Beyer Speed Figures of 99 and 103 respectively. He was overmatched versus a “key” race field on June 10 where the early pace was slow that the first three finishers ran 2nd, 1st, and 3rd around the race track in a inconclusive performance. Last time out he set a very moderate pace under pressure early and was collared by Saint Dermot who rallied from last to win by 2-¼ lengths. The difference between two rivals is Tribal Jewel and his  aforementioned rival is weight as they are only separated by three pounds today. Jockey Rafael Bejarano will position Tribal Jewel to be the first to attack the leader around the far turn and he comes into this race with a B workout that Andy Harrington commented “Sharp right back going 35.2, 59.1 moving in his usual efficient manner for Baltas. Holding edge.” Ultimate Luck (#1) is my longshot that at 8-1 on the morning line that I will use underneath. He is not keen on visiting the Winner’s Circle with twelve seconds or thirds from twenty-one starts but this Lucky J.H. gelding ran a lot better than his 3wd, btwn ¼, willingly comment in your Daily Racing Form. He lost by three-quarters of a lengths but had to navigate a three to four wide trip the entire journey and covered 54 feet more per Trakus than the rail rally winner Ain’t Misbehavin as that rival went on to win California-bred Allowance N1X with a 83 Beyer Speed Figure. He is beautifully drawn on the rail today with Alonso Quinonez remaining in the irons and projects for a ground saving stalk and pounce trip.

The Play: The gamble in this race is pace. I am looking for Got Even and Tribal Jewel to run one-two around the racetrack early and that is the way it can end at the finish line as I also see this race play out on paper as TimeformUS pace projector. I believe the pace will not setup well for stalkers and closers and you will need to be forwardly placed.

WIN bet on (5) GOT EVEN

Main Exacta Box: 4,5

Small Exactas: 4-1, 5-1. No reverse.

$15 Daily Double: 4-1 = $15

$15 Daily Double: 5-1 = $15

Total Wager: $30

Race 7: Osunitas Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

The lack of a confirmed front runner in today’s feature race means TimeformUS pace projector suggest this race will develop for horses running on or near the early lead. Juno returning to the turf and stretching out off a better than looked dirt sprint on June 26 will most likely be your pacesetter. In the first flight chasing that expected pacesetter are Prize Exhibit, Havana Belle, and Entrechat early. In mid-pack will be My Year is a Day and those charging from the rear of the field are Moon Over Paris and morning line favorite Elektrum.

The play in this race is against the morning line favorite Elektrum. She exits the best race, Gr. 1 Gamely Handicap, but based on today’s distance and probable pace scenario this John Sadler trainee will be up against it. She has yet to test today’s 1-1/16 distance but at distance shorter than 1-⅛ miles she is 4-0-2-0. In addition, TimeformUS pace projector suggests that today’s race shape will favor horses on or near the early lead and last time out in the Gamely Handicap she found herself rallying from last in the field of eight to be third behind a slow early pace won by the presser Illuminant. Despite the back to back B+ workouts per National Turf Andy Harrington this restricted stakes is only a stepping stone race for her connections to get this Irish bred filly to the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

When I reviewed the past performances of the fifth race on June 26 at Santa Anita I made a note on Juno (#1). The note for this Brazilian bred read “Chesnut filly is undefeated in five starts on turf at distances from seven furlongs to one-mile and is strictly using the six furlong Desert Stormer as a prep for a stakes going long on turf at Del Mar.” In her native Brazil she is a dual Group 1 winner winning the Immensity by a head over an eleven-horse field on a soft turf course at one-mile and came back to win the Group 1 Barao de Piracicba also at one-mile on a heavy turf course which is the equivalent to their One Thousand Guineas. She was privately purchased by Team Valor following her dual Group 1 victories and transferred to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella this year. The Setembro Clove filly had trained in respectable fashion for her North American debut per Andy Harrington and she was entered in the June 26 Desert Stormer Stakes strictly as a prep for a stakes going long at Del Mar and she ran extremely well in her first defeat when you consider the track profile on that afternoon was against rivals horses trying to make up ground. She showed nice early speed to track the uncontested leader Shh She’s Ours as that rival sped to the early lead establishing quick fractions on a very glib surface per Moss Pace Figures (+1, -1). She dropped back to last on the far turn angling over to the rail and rallied to get third but beaten 5-½ lengths in a respectable North American debut. What makes this performance better than the margin of defeat is she attempted to rally from just off the pace over a main track that strongly favored inside-speed that the winner Shh She’s Ours rode to victory. The Desert Stormer earned an excellent 101 Beyer Speed Figure and the validity of that figure was confirmed by the subsequent performances of the also rans in the field. The fourth-place finisher Luminance came back to win Allowance N2X with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure and the fifth-place finisher Avenge came back to win Allowance N3X with a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. Those speed figures are ten and thirteen point improvement from their Desert Stormer performance. She is beautifully drawn on the rail with Del Mar’s leading rider Flavien Prat in the irons and she has worked beautifully for the stretch out to 1-1/16 miles with a B work on July 27 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington that he commented “Tracked and drew off from an overmatched barnmate going the last 6f in 24.3, 113.0. Pretty filly is moving forward down here.” In a race that is devoid of a confirmed pacesetter Juno projects to be loose on an uncontested early lead per TimeformUS pace projector and she should take them gate to wire as BEST BET on the card.

In my exotics I will look to beat the morning line favorite Elektrum by using only two horses. Prize Exhibit (#5) exits a series of Graded Stakes including splitting the field in the Gr. 1 Just a Game on June 11 at Belmont Park. She was my top choice in the Gr. 2 Yellow Ribbon on July 16 and she received a terrible ride by jockey Santiago Gonzalez. This filly is very difficult to ride and she never settled as she was running up on horses heels into the backstretch before jockey Santiago Gonzalez eased her out three wide leaving the half mile pole and she unleashed a premature three wide move to duel with two leaders Her Emmynency and Keri Belle on the far turn and by the time she reached the top of the stretch she was a tired filly who weaken to seventh. She will need to settle better as Mike Smith who rode this filly to one of her three wins in 2015 returns in the irons. Havana Belle (#7) chased a very fast early pace on May 5 while wide from start to finish and finished fourth in a race where the first two finishers rallied from 7th and 14th early. The Phil D’Amato trainee will enjoy having a target to run at plus the slower early fractions.

The Play: I look for the closers such as My Year is a Day, Elektrum, and Moon Over Paris to struggle over a turf course with the rails up at 18 feet favor horses that are forwardly placed and in this race that is important considering there is a lack of early speed. My top choice Juno fits the profile perfectly and I will focus my attention around this beautiful chestnut filly.

WIN bet on (1) JUNO

Main Exactas: 1-5, 1-7. Small reverse.

Turf Racing is the Word on Excellent Card at Del Mar

Race 5: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a very slow early pace favoring horses on or near the early lead. The horses that will favor this race shape are Scattagirl, Sutton’s Smile, and Zip N Bayou. Horses that will behind this slow early pace in the second flight are My Sweet Afleet, Savannah Sky, and Dynamic Mizzes K. The rivals that can be hindered by a slow early pace that will be lagging far back early are La Boheme, morning line favorite Arethusa, and Stylish in Black.

My play in this race is against morning line favorite Arethusa. She had an absolute perfect journey when she ran second behind the favored winner Grandma’s Hands on opening day. She was beautifully covered next to last behind a contested speed duel between Cover Song and Moon Over Paris, continued saving ground around the second turn as she moved up into the stretch, split rivals, and delivered good rally between rivals to get second. The 80 Beyer Speed Figure she earned gives her no advantage over this field as others in this field have run equal or faster. Her late running style could be hampered by a race shape that favors horses on or near the early lead per TimeformUS pace projector. In addition the form of that race was not flattered when the third-place finisher returned to finish fifth beaten 3-¾ lengths here on August 4 behind Mo Knows.  

A trip note horse from last fall’s Bing Crosby meet here at Del Mar reappears in the opening leg of the Saturday Pick 6 and that horse is Sutton’s Smile (#2). This gray or roan filly by Paddy O’ Prado loves the Del Mar turf course even though she has never won over this surface with a record 2-0-1-1. The race that I want to point out is her third-place finish in last year’s Gr. 3 Jimmy Durante where she was beaten 2-¼ lengths behind opportunistic closer Family Meeting and she lost more ground than the margin of defeat would indicate according to Trakus. In that race she sat in the two-path alongside Mokat through the first half mile of the race. She was maneuvered three wide leaving the backstretch and around the far turn as she moved up to reach contention four wide into the stretch, and flattened out as the second-place finisher rallied up along the rail to get second. According to Trakus she traveled 5ft and 36ft more than the first two finishers respectively making her effort look much better than the 3wd 2nd turn, up 3rd comment in Daily Racing Form. She made her next turf start on March 12 in the China Doll Stakes where she was returning from a ninety-one day layoff where she was very keen early pulling jockey Rafael Bejarano early along the rail chasing a very fast early pace set by the favored Pacific Heat early, continued chasing the favored leader all the way to the top of the stretch where she angled off the rail, and was out finished to the wire losing by only 1-½ lengths in a race that developed at fast early pace to set up for the horses coming from off the pace as the first three finishers rallied from 7th, 5th, and 6th after the first half mile. The form of the China Doll Stakes was flattered when the fourth-and-fifth place finishers returned to win. She dropped in class to face Allowance N1X rivals versus three-year olds only on May 20 and she ran an excellent second behind the 1-2 favored winner Lady Valeur. She was able to get over from post position seven into the two-path on the first turn racing between rivals behind the uncontested leader Not Now Carolyn who establish a very fast early pace thru the first half mile (22.43 and 46.23). The gray filly split rivals on the far turn, angled three wide with a clear run at the favored winner into the stretch, and was second best finishing 4-¼ lengths ahead of the rest of the field earning 82 Beyer Speed Figure which equals the par for this class level (Beyer par 83). She was on the wrong surface (dirt) behind the brilliant undefeated champion Songbird in the Gr. 2 Summertime Oaks. She returns to her preferred Del Mar turf course and is reunited with Joe Talamo who has ridden her perfectly to two second-place finishers from two starts and was aboard for her five furlong 1:02 ⅗ move on July 31 that Andy Harrington gave a B- stating she “relaxed solo spin with Talamo aboard going 37.4, 102.3. Moving well off the break.” Without the presence of a crazy speed rival such as Not Now Carolyn or Pacific Heat in this field, she should be in a perfect spot on the rail close to a slower early pace in a race that projects to favor horses on or near the early lead. She should not worry about losing ground from post position two and appears ready to break through with her second turf victory as the BEST BET on the card.

In my exotics I will focus on horses that will forwardly placed close to anticipated slow early pace. Zip N Bayou (#7) found herself further off the pace than she is used too on June 11 because the pacesetter Rockport Babe tore off to set a uncontested early lead thru quick early fractions for the first half mile (22.74 and 47.30). She was angled three wide for a clear run into the far turn but was badly impeded around the far turn forcing her wider while dropping back to second to last, rallied seven to eight wide into the stretch, and rallied for second. Despite losing by 2-¼ lengths she covered 34ft, 54ft, and 47ft more than the winner, third, and fourth-place finishers according to Trakus. The slower early pace in this race will favor her style as she has more tactical speed. Scattagirl (#1) turns back from 1-⅜ on July 28 where she weaken to fifth to one mile where she is 2-1-0 in her last three starts at the one-mile distance on turf. Jockey Kent Desormeaux remains in the irons and she should enjoy a smooth ground saving stalk and pounce trip. Dynamic Mizzes K (#9) was too close to a rapid early pace set by uncontested leader Nine Point Nine on July 17 and tired badly to finish ninth in the Sandy Blue Handicap. I expect jockey Gary Stevens to position his mount close to the early pace which will not be as fast as last time and trainer Mark Glatt continues on his red hot streak this meet.

The Play: My focus on this race is strictly around Sutton’s Smile who figures to enjoy a perfect trip close to an slow early pace and get the first jump on the closers in this race.

WIN bet on (2) SUTTON’S SMILE

Main Exactas: 2-1, 2-7, 2-9. Small reverse for each.

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor horses on or near the lead or coming from off the early pace. Dashin Ashen from the rail will straight for the early lead but will be pursued or chased by Tandora with first time blinkers and Vivacious Beauty. Those three rivals will be chased by Pragmatical and morning line favorite Tryst in the second flight. Breathe will not find the same early fractions she pressed on July 17 and will be outrun early.

I made this race one of my four prime plays on today’s card because I have a note on Formulator to always play against today’s morning line favorite Tryst. She has lost at odds of 2-5, 3-10, and 4-5 and has not looked visually impressive in her last two starts despite finishing 5-¼ and 4-½ lengths ahead of the rest of the field. On May 15 she chased home the gate to wire winner Rockport Babe to the wire while switching and raising her tale through the stretch and switching to her incorrect left lead to the wire. In her next start on June 17 she acted better through the stretch chasing the gate to wire winner Seaside Glory to the wire but she enjoyed a perfect trip chasing the dueling leaders in third and making no significant impact to the wire. The second choice on the morning line Lady Pamela is also a bet against because her trainer, Clifford Sise Jr., is 16-1-1-4 with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint the past five years per DRF Formulator. She is by Tapit out of Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner Life is Sweet and is bred for more distance as National Turf’s Andy Harrington has gave her a pair of B works but with the comment of “Has a steady kick,” and “Should be running on,” in her last two works over the Del Mar surface.

After reviewing National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s workout reports and studying her pedigree, I placed Tandora (#3) on my Horses to Watch after she failed to defeat one horse to the wire in her career debut back on June 17 behind Tryst. She went off as the clear 5-1 third choice in her first start based on her excellent reviews from National Turf’s Andy Harrington, a superb pedigree to win sprinting, and trainer Phil D’Amato record with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint. She is by the excellent sire Candy Ride out of the dam Tanda. She won of five of fourteen starts including the Gr. 3 Santa Paula Stakes, Railbird Stakes, and Rancho Bernardo Stakes in addition she is Gr. 1 placed and Tandora is her first foal. Trainer Phil D’Amato has won at excellent 25% (12-for-48) the past five years with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and entered her first start with a pair of B works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington. All the reasons explained why this bay filly was sent off as the third choice at 5-1 and she failed to run to her workouts as she finished last behind gate to wire Seaside Glory. She did not break in great order leaving the gate, trailed behind the contested speed duel between Seaside Glory and Brainspin, and was not wisely wrapped up through the stretch finishing twenty-lengths behind the winner. However she deserves another chance when you consider she had worked very well into her debut and now out of her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato who does well with second time starters. She enters this with a pair of B workouts on July 18 and July 25 per Andy Harrington including a crisp five furlong move on July 25 where she worked in company with my Race 8 top choice Excavation with the comment “Willing drill with Excavation coming back with grit,. Last 4f in 47.2. Certainly better than last.” Trainer Phil D’Amato is 20-4-6-0 (20%) with second time starters in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and gets blinkers on for the first time. Jockey Martin Garcia rides her for the first time and I am going to give her another chance especially now that she is a generous 20-1 on the morning line.

In my exotics I will use two horses to beat the two morning line favorites from finishing first or second. Breathe (#4) did not have any visible excuse when she ran third beaten 3-¾ lengths but my theory in her July 17 race was she was given a clear schooling race as her stablemate Brainspin won that race. She was bet down to the role of favorite and found herself in a comfortable spot pressing the pace three wide through very slow fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-9, -12) and offered very little through the stretch to be a clear third behind her stablemate winner. She has trained well for her first start and exit that debut effort with B work on August 1 that Andy Harrington commented “Easy pull to the 7f pole breezing all the way in 36.0, 48.1.” Trainer John Sadler wins at an excellent 26% (5-for-19) the past three-years with second time starters in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and lures Tyler Baze off my top choice. This $310,000 Haynesfield filly deserves another chance. Pragmatical (#6) will make her second career start off 923-day layoff but she enters her first start on the main track with twelve workouts including a pair of B workouts at Los Alamitos on June 27 and July 9 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant. She ran very well in her only start sitting close to the early lead, taking over the front at mid-stretch, and was swallowed up by the closers the final furlong.

The Play: I doubt that we will get the 20-1 on Tandora as he well backed in his debut and has worked well to merit another chance.

WIN bet on (3) TANDORA

Main Exactas: 3-4, 3-6. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta: 3-7. No reverse.

Race 7: Allowance N1X,1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

The early pace of this one-mile route promises to be hotly contested and set it up for those coming from just off the pace or rallying from mid-pack or towards the rear of the field. TimeformUS shows Spanish Hombre, Annie’s Candy, and Lauren’s Ladd fleeing the gate to vie for the early lead. The two morning line favorites, Bombard and Alaskan Son, will be position behind this trio of early leaders along with Curlin Rules. Tristan’s Trilogy will be in mid-pack away from this anticipated fast early pace with Trinitas Soldier, Barton Lodge, and Chewy Round Town towards the rear of the field.

A handsome chestnut son of Curlin, I expect Curlin Rules (#10) to make significant move forward in his first start on the turf for a trainer that has excelled with his starters making their first start on the turf and based on his work over this Jimmy Durante turf course plus his turf laden pedigree I look for Curlin Rules to spring the minor upset. He had no excuse in two of his last three starts on the main track. In the California Chrome Stakes on April 30 at Los Alamitos he stalked the early pace in a comfortable spot on the rail behind the early duel between Rare Candy and Uncle Lino as those two sailed thru a very slow early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-10, -4). He continued on the rail around the far turn, dropped back into the stretch, and offered very little beaten 16-¼ lengths. In his next start on May 29 he had another perfect journey prompting a moderate early pace set by the favorite Rare Candy early, fought on gamely between rivals all the way to mid-stretch, and was no match behind subsequent Gr. 3 Affirmed winner Dalmore where the winner sat a perfect trip in third only 1-½ lengths behind the dueling leaders after a half mile. He added the blinkers for the first time in the Gr. 3 Affirmed on July 2 and lost all chance when he stumbled right at the start with jockey Victor Espinoza wisely wrapping up on this colt through the stretch beaten 21-lengths behind Dalmore. The $375,000 Keeneland September 2014 yearling purchase will now remove the blinkers and try the turf for the first time and both moves have proven to be winning moves from the John Sadler barn. According to DRF Formulator he has won at 26% clip (6-for-23) removing the blinkers and is respectable 15% (9-for-60) with his starters trying the grass for the first time. This year he had Skelton Pass (June 4, 2016, $24.00-1) won in his first start on turf and first start routing and Langham (July 15, 2016, $4.60) ran second beaten three-quarters of a length behind Alaskan Son in his first start on turf and routing as both were trained by John Sadler and owned by his main client Hronis Racing LLC. Although Curlin is only a 12% first time turf sire the dam of Curlin Rules, Awe That, has proven to be a very productive producer of turf winners. She has produced seven starters with FIVE turf winners including multiple turf route winners Screaming Skylar (2-for-6) and Dynafortwo (3-for-12). This chestnut returned with three workouts here at Del Mar including a five furlong 1:00 ⅗ move on the turf on July 31 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commenting “a tad green over the turf but leveled out late in 38.1, 101.3 (23.2 LQ) galloping out very well around the turn. May have been a turf horse all along; blinkers off.” Jockey Victor Espinoza has been aboard for half of trainer John Sadler’s six wins this meet from seven mounts and post position ten is 3-for-8 this meet. Although he lacks form on turf he is trained by a conditioner that excels with starters trying turf for the first time, removing blinkers, and is beautifully bred to handle the surface switch makes Curlin Rules my upset special to start the Guaranteed $600,000 Late Pick 4.

In my exotics I will use three horses including the two morning line favorites but of the three I am most intrigued by longshot Barton Lodge (#6). The Irish bred son of Fastnet Rock has been the victim of two very tough trips in his two starts in the United States. He was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board on April 3 and he was bothered at the start and dropped back to last early behind very tepid early pace set by the gate to wire winner Beach Patrol through the first half mile (23.33 and 47.46). Jockey Abel Lezcano attempted to split rivals leaving the backstretch and into the far turn but had to check badly between rivals, dropped back to last, and did not produce a rally in a race where the first three finishers ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd after a half mile. The form of that race was flattered when the winner returned to run second beaten a nose in the Gr. 2 American Turf at Churchill Downs earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. In his last start on April 29 at Keeneland he pulled jockey Feroux Geroux very hard past the stands for the first time, he was able to settle down, dropped over into the two path into the first turn and raced in between rivals through the next half mile. He moved up in traffic on the far turn, split rivals, and ran evenly to the wire to defeat more than half the field in a respectable effort. He has returned with six workouts at Los Alamitos including a B- move on August 1 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant. With the anticipated fast early pace I look for Jamie Theriot to allow his mount to drop back and make that one patent late run into the far turn. Bombard (#2) is reunited with jockey Flavien Prat who was aboard his maiden victory on June 4 at Santa Anita. He managed to defeat more than half the field on July 16 where his trouble is not as significant as his 3wd stretch, steadied ⅛ comment in the Daily Racing Form suggest. He enjoyed a beautiful trip behind the contested early battle for the lead among Fabozzi, Unapologetic, It’s the Ice, and Horse Greedy after the first six furlong. He was angled three wide into the stretch and could not keep up with the late kick of Lucky Bryan as he steadied as he was outrun by the winner through the stretch. He might have finished third but was not going to impact the first two finishers. Alaskan Son (#3) defeated a sub-par maiden field in the final race on closing day holding off the late rally of first time starter Langham who probably was best.

The Play: I strongly feel that Curlin Rules will take to the turf beautiful based on pedigree, his trainer’s success with starters making their first start on turf, and his most recent workout on the surface. I will only suggest a small win bet on Barton Lodge because his probable odds will probably be very generous after two tough trip in North America. I will single Curlin Rules in my recommend Pick 3 play ending with La Jolla Handicap.  

WIN bet on (10) CURLIN RULES

Small WIN bet on (6) BARTON LODGE.  

Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-3, 10-6. Small reverse for each.

Pick 3: 10 / 4, 7 / 2, 3, 6, 9 = 1 x 2 x 4 x $2 = $16

Pick 3: 2, 3, 6, 10 / 4, 7 / 2 = 4 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $16

Total Wager: $32

Race 9: Gr. 3 La Jolla Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds

The early pace of today’s co-feature La Jolla Handicap will be similar to the opening day feature Oceanside Stakes and TimeformUS pace projector anticipates a fast early pace to set up for those coming from just off the early lead or closing from far back. Mr. Roary will go for the early lead but will be prompted by his pace rival Imperious One into and around the first turn. The second choice on the morning line favorite Moonlight Drive will get a ideal trip just behind these two dueling leaders tracking them in third. In behind this trio are Free Rose, Oceanside Stakes winner Monster Bea, and Ebadan. I expect horses such as Liam the Charmer, Dressed in Hermes, and Lucky Bryan to be closing with a furious rally late benefiting from an anticipated fast pace.

The morning line favorite Monster Bea will merit the role of favoritism after winning the Oceanside Stakes by 2-¼ lengths at 12-1 under today’s rider Gary Stevens who remains aboard for the fourth time. Although he will be used on some of my wagers, I will use him defensively because he has been the beneficiary of two very good trips in his last two victories. He settled into a dream stalking trip on June 10 stalking the early pace from the rail, split rivals to inherit the lead behind two leaders that weaken badly to finish 8th and 9th and won going away. In his Oceanside Stakes victory he was kept in the clear on the outside in mid-pack behind a blistering pace battle contested by Mr. Roary and Imperious One, moved up on the far turn with dead aim on favorite Moonlight Drive and kick past that rival to win going away covering 16ft and 8ft more than the second and third-place finishers. The 93 Beyer Speed Figure in the field is the top last race figure but gives him no advantage over others in this field that will offer better value.

I have longed been a fan of Liam the Charmer (#2) because of her pedigree that I am very familiar with. She is a daughter of the dam Charm the Giant who was a multiple stakes winner on the turf including Gr. 3 Wilshire and earned $294,734 routing on the turf. The second dam, Olympic Charmer, was perfect in two starts on the turf earning $109,800 routing on the turf. The Smart Strike colt was unlucky not to break his maiden in his second career start on February 20 where he had to navigate three wide trip early, moved up four wide on the far turn, took a brief lead only to be challenged by the 1-2 favored winner Undeniable U and refused to yield easily losing by three-quarters of a length finishing five-lengths ahead of the rest of field all the while covering 11 feet more than the winner in this excellent first race on the turf. He returned from a 78-day layoff on May 8 and with a smoother stalking trip he blasted home to the wire by 5-¼ lengths defeating a key race field where the third-and-ninth-place finishers came back to break their maiden with improved Beyer Speed Figures of 84 and 77 respectively. After this maiden victory he was prompted entered in the Rainbow Stakes on June 18 at Santa Anita where he was stretching back out to 1-⅛ miles the same distance of his better than looked runner-up performance in his second career start and ran third beaten a half-length behind the 38-1 gate to wire winner Mr. Roary. The dark bay or brown colt had a terrible wide trip. The Mike McCarthy trainee was forced to break from post position eleven in a eleven horse field and was caught three wide around the first turn, dropped back briefly into the backstretch, began to pick up momentum on the far turn while four wide, angled widest of all into the stretch, and delivered fast closing rally to fall a half-length short. In order to show the extent of his wide trip, one only has to review the Trakus chart. He covered 69ft, 39ft, and 59ft more than the winner, second-place finisher Ralis, and fourth-place finish Lucky Bryan. When you consider the amount of ground he lost and he was beaten only half-length one can argue that Liam the Charmer ran the best race in the Rainbow Stakes. The form of that race received an upgrade when the fourth-and-seventh place finishers returned to win their next start with improved 91 and 88 Beyer Speed Figures in their next start. He will make his first start off a 49-day layoff with four works to suggest he has recovered well from his tough trip in his most recent start including a smart B work on July 31 that Andy Harrington commented “Prat up; breezing all the way while always best over recent runner-up Longstocking in 38.0, 101.4.” He will get a significant post position upgrade after drawing the far outside post in two of his last three starts he draws post position two where he will workout a terrific trip stalking in mid-pack along the rail behind anticipated fast pace battle contested by Mr. Roary and Imperious One. Santiago Gonzalez takes over in the irons for the first time and with three wins on the turf this meet he is more than a capable substitute replacement. He will be a square price and with a cleaner trip merits upset status.

In my exotics I will use two horses that exit the Oceanside Stakes and one horse that exits a tough trip victory on the second day of the meet. Lucky Bryan (#6) ran behind our top choice when he finished fourth in the Rainbow Stakes but that was his second start following two hundred and seventeen day layoff. He made his third start following that long layoff on the second day of the meet and got up as the mild 4-1 favorite over my top choice in that race All the Marbles to win by a nose. The son of Lookin at Lucky was forced to break from the outermost post twelve in a twelve horse field broke fine but was navigated towards the rear of the field without losing a lot of ground into the first turn sitting in the two path through the first half mile. He launched his move three wide on the far turn, eased out seven wide for a clear run as he was drifting in thru the stretch, but straighten up and rallied to catch my 10-1 top choice on the wire to win by a nose. As with our top choice, he covered 8ft and 56ft more than the second and third place finishers. He enters his second race this meet with a excellent B work per Andy Harrington on July 31 that he caught faster than the official time stating “Big sort bounced out big from late try reaching home in 37.0, 100.4 (23.4 LQ) out fluidly around the turn.” The John Sadler trainee will benefit from a contested pace by Mr. Roary and Imperious One and if Victor Espinoza can keep him from drifting in through the stretch he can duplicate his come from behind victory. Moonlight Drive (#3) ran second behind Monster Bea in the Oceanside Stakes and he ran very well when you consider he was making his first start off a one hundred and fifty one day layoff. In that race he chased the spirited speed duel  between Mr. Roary and Imperious One in a perfect spot in fourth early, moved up leaving the far turn into that fast pace to take over the lead at the top of the stretch, and was collared by the opportunistic closing winner. Flavien Prat takes over in the irons and when he teams up with Bob Baffert they win at a 50% (6-3-0-1) the past five years. Ebadan (#9) finished tenth beating only one horse to the wire in the Oceanside Stakes but this was inconclusive performance. He settled towards the rear behind the fast pace speed duel early, moved up along the rail, split rivals into the stretch, but had to steady sharply behind the tiring leaders Mr. Roary and Imperious One when a hole did not develop in the stretch and was wisely wrapped up through the stretch. His third-place finish on June 12 fits very nicely in this field and will be a huge price versus his 5-1 odds in the Oceanside Stakes where he was the third betting choice.

The Play: I will look to beat morning line favorite Monster Bea from finishing either first or second and hope that Liam the Charmer gets that coveted ground saving stalk and pounce trip under Santiago Gonzalez. I will single Liam the Charmer in the final leg of my suggested Pick 3 that starts in Race 7 and we are live in the Pick 3 I will still recommend playing a WIN bet on him.

WIN bet on (2) LIAM THE CHARMER

Main Exactas: 2-3, 2-6. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta: 2-9. Small reverse.