BEST BETS:
BIG BUZZ (Race 5, 6-1)
SHARP SAMURAI (Race 8, 7-2)
Race 5: Del Mar Juvenile Turf, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year olds
BIG BUZZ (#4, 6-1) will make his second career start in this listed stakes race as a maiden but this Tim Yakteen trainee ran much better than his running line or his comment Off Slow, 5-wide into lane comment in your Daily Racing Form would suggest in his career debut back on August 12 here at Del Mar. He is regally bred to run long on the turf as he is by the Dynaformer stallion Mr. Big out of the Unusual Heat mare Not Unusual and she won two of nine starts routing on the turf and she has passed that affinity for routing on the turf to her progeny. She has produced two winners from as many starters with her most famous sibling being Big Buzz’s full brother Big Score who is the morning line favorite in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. Although it is very difficult to train a horse to win at first asking in their first start going long on the turf, trainer Tim Yakteen does very well with that move especially here at Del Mar where he wins at 38% rate (8/3-0-0) including one this meet with Multi Player (August 13, 2017, $12.30-1). Despite his breeding and his trainer’s success with turf horses making their debut going long, Big Buzz was dismissed at 10-1 in his career debut and the lack of wagering support was the result of his workouts leading up that race. National Turf’s Andy Harrington witness his last two works prior to his debut and was not impressed giving him a pair of C+ including his August 5 move where he stated “solo spin never getting out of third gear in 101.3. Like to see some racing here.” He was defeated in that race by Respect the Hustle by two-lengths but the difference in margin is the result of ground lost. In that race, he broke step slowly from the gate, jockey Rafael Bejarano maneuvered him over to the inside into the first turn and save ground for the first quarter of a mile. Down the backstretch, he was taken towards the outside in the three-path racing along the eventual winner but as Respect the Hustle saved ground into and around the far turn, Big Buzz launched his run parked four to five wide on the turn and was fanned five wide into the stretch as the eventual winner saved every inch of ground and came out two paths off the rail into the stretch and rallied to win by half-length. Big Buzz lost nothing in defeat finishing well out in the center of the turf course to lose by only two-lengths. The amount of ground he lost is reflected in Trakus where he covered 24 and 32 feet more than the first two finishers. I expect him to move forward in a considerable way in his second career start especially after he worked five furlongs in 1:01 ⅕ on August 27 in company with his full brother Big Score (Big Buzz - August 27) where he was in hand throughout under a nice hold towards the wire and galloped very well. His late kick should be flattered by a very hot pace that TimeformUS anticipates with Martin Riggs, Bombardeo, and Take the One O One all vying for the front end to ensure hot pace for Big Buzz who just needs a ground saving trip to reserve his late kick at what should be a hint of a price to start the Sunday Pick 6.
The Play:
WIN bet on (4) BIG BUZZ at 7-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 4-8, 4-9, 4-11. Small reverse for each.
$5 Pick 3: 4 / 3, 5 / 2, 7 = 1 x 2 x 2 x $5 = $20
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year olds
THIRTEEN SQUARED (#5, 5-1) is my co-top choice with stable mate Alluring Star as both horses are trained by Bob Baffert and he has been sensational this meet with two-year olds making their career debut in a maiden special weight dirt sprint. Through the conclusion of yesterday’s program, he is winning at 40% (10/4-3-0) with this move and two of those four wins were with today’s rider Rafael Bejarano in the irons: Just A Smidge (July 19, $2.00-1) and Zatter (August 20, $1.70-1). Thirteen Squared gets the top preference not only because he is trained by a red hot conditioner but also based on his excellent win early breeding and his workouts for his career debut. He is by the first crop of the Arnold Zetcher owned and race stallion Liaison who is off to a fast start at his home of Spendthrift Farms. From fourteen two-year olds to race, four have won but the impressive part about those four winners is that THREE of them won their career debut. Vicente’s Shadow (Emerald Downs, June 18, $11.90-1), Pont Du Gard (Arlington Park, July 7, $31.10-1), and Bronx Beauty (Penn National, July 13, $1.20-1) all won their career debut for the stallion Liaison. The dam, House of Fortune, who was also raced and owned by Arnold Zetcher won 8 of 22 starts on the race track for almost a million dollars in earnings and won 3 of 5 start as a two-year old. She produced two winners from three starters but none won as a two-year old. He comes into his career debut with four works over the Del Mar main track including a half spin in 48 ⅘ on August 16 with stable mate High Drama (Thirteen Squared - August 16) where he showed high speed from the start not allowing the workmate to go by him while nicely in hand with the only negative is switching from his right to his left lead a few strides out of the gate. Following this work, he came back with two back to back B works from National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a five furlong move in 1:00 flat on August 29 that he showed a “good late rush while best over barn mate Vitality in 36.1, 59.3 (23.2 LQ) finishing with plenty in reserve; Bejarano up.” By a red-hot first crop stallion whose progeny are firing in their career debut, training very well, and for a conditioner who has done nothing wrong with his first time starters this meet makes the uncoupled entry of Thirteen Squared and Alluring Star the two tough to beat in this event.
The Play:
WIN bet on (5) THIRTEEN SQUARED at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-5, 3-6.
Main Exactas: 5-1, 5-3, 5-6.
$5 Pick 3: 3, 5 / 2, 7 / 5 = 2 x 2 x 1 x $5 = $20
$2 Pick 3: 3, 5 / 2, 7 / 3, 10 = 2 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $16
Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds and upward
JUST KIDDING (#7, 20-1) is my co-top choice along with The Lieutenant but the top choice goes to the longest shot on the morning line. The Lemon Drop Kid appears to have tailed off having not finished in the money in all four starts this year losing his three starts on a wet fasted or fast main track by a combined 21-½ lengths. However, this bay gelding showed signs of returning to form with a better than looked fifth place finish beaten eight lengths behind the 2-1 favorite Irish Freedom. Prior to that defeat, this Peter Eurton trainee no excuse finishing fifth beaten five-lengths on July 16 at Los Alamitos where he navigated a ground saving trip stalking a very slow early pace dictated by the uncontested leader Got Even who earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and below average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (-18, -8). He remained in striking position around the far turn but was empty when the real running started finishing to be fifth. That race and his previous nine starts on a main track were for Allowance N2X and in order to turn things around his connections dropped him for the optional claiming price of $40,000 on August 13 and added the blinkers for the first time and based on his finish position he ran another sub-par race to finish fifth but he showed indications that he could be rounding into form. He was switching to Corey Nakatani he was hustled from the gate to duel through the first eighth of a mile before establishing a clear lead and then widen his margin down the backstretch where he went way too fast for a half mile earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and above average Moss Pace Figures (+35, +28). He continued to maintain his margin and position on the front end on the far turn as the winner Irish Freedom began to cut into that leader’s margin midway on the far turn. Despite tiring to finish fifth, Just Kidding held on well through mid-stretch and lost the minor placings by 3-¼ lengths as the second through fourth place finishers rallied from 11th, 9th, and 10th to complete the superfecta in a highly rated race where the winner earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. This was a good effort in defeat considering how fast he went early and earned the field’s top last race 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field. Moreover, the form of that race was flattered when the third-place finisher, Brimstoned, returned to win Allowance N1X on the turf on September 1 here at Del Mar. This traditional good work horse returned with an easy half mile spin on August 25 in 48 seconds flat and now drops seven pounds as he gets apprentice Laura Werner in the irons for the first time. I expect Laura Werner to utilize this gelding’s early speed by placing him on the early lead but hopefully not go as fast early as he did last time out. In a race where the two morning line favorites, Kristo and Show Me Da Lute, are vulnerable let’s point for a potential speed horse realistically placed and up and comer The Lieutenant.
The Play:
WIN bet on (2) THE LIEUTENANT at 6-1 or better.
WIN bet on (7) JUST KIDDING at 15-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 2-7, 2-8, 2-9.
Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-8, 7-9.
Race 8: Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, 1-⅛ Miles, Three-year olds
SHARP SAMURAI (#5, 7-2) is looking for his third straight turf stakes victory this year and looks to give trainer Mark Glatt another victory on the penultimate day of the Del Mar meet as he is enjoying a career meet. The First Samurai gelding used to be one-dimensional front runner but under jockey Gary Stevens he has learn how to ration his speed to stalk and pounce effectively. The bay gelding accomplished his first stakes victory in the Rainbow Stakes at today’s 1-⅛ distance on June 10 where he was able to get over from post position nine in a eleven horse towards the inside and stalk the pace in comfortable spot down the backstretch as the leader Monster Man was able to dictate an uncontested lead through a moderate 48.18 second half mile. He stayed on the inside on the far turn and into the stretch patiently waiting for room to develop, found a seam along the inside at mid-stretch, and exploded to win by 1-¼ lengths defeating three of the same rivals he faces today: Monster Man and Fashion Business. He bypassed the traditional opening day Oceanside Stakes on July 19 to point for today’s Del Mar Derby and would use the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap as his prep for this event and he won that race by only head over Fashion Business but that margin does not take into account the amount of ground this bay gelding lost. He rated towards the rear of a bunched field early and continued biding his time towards the rear as Double Touch and others made premature wide moves to get into contention down the backstretch. He uncorked a five wide run to loom the entire field on the far turn and grab the lead into the stretch, opened up a short lead, and held off the late run of Fashion Business to win by a head earning the field’s top last race 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure and is tied for the top last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure. What makes that race impressive was Sharp Samurai covered 44, 45, and 49 feet more than the second through fourth place finishers according to Trakus. In a race where it has only one confirmed pacesetter in Monster Man, TimeformUS pace projector sees him place second tracking that rival and this additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue as he is undefeated at 1-⅛ in two starts. He showed no signs of regression when he returned two weeks after that race to work five furlongs in a near bullet 59 ⅕ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “breezed quickly in blinkers with Gary S up in 23.3, 59.2 reaching in his usual noteworthy manner Big as usual.” He should continue his winning way under his regular rider Gary Stevens as he looks to get first run on Bowie’s Hero and Big Score.
The Play:
Play the (5) SHARP SAMURAI to WIN at 5-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-10. Small reverse for each.
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