BEST BET: SPECTATOR (Race 6, 5-2)
Race 6: Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year old fillies
TimeformUS pace projector feels this race will not favor a specific running style. Diamonds And Pearls and Midnight Summer will vie for the early lead with horses such as Surrender Now, Spectator, and Terra’s Angel in the first flight behind this early duel. Dancing Belle and Spirit of Shanghai will be charging from off the early pace.
The field’s top last race speed figure belongs to the undefeated Surrender Now with 79 and 96 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. Midnight Summer owns the top last race TimeformUS early pace rating with Diamonds And Pearls a close second. The field’s best TimeformUS late kick belongs to the maiden Dancing Belle.
My play against in this race is the undefeated Surrender Now who comes into this race with a convincing eight-length victory in the Landaluce Stakes on July 2 at Santa Anita. In that race she enjoyed ideal conditions pressing the pace outside of the second favorite Gorgeous Ginny early, put that rival away with ease around the far turn, and widen with ease while geared down to the wire. The biggest issue with that win was she had perfect trip pressing a very slow half mile per the Moss Pace Figures (-9, -6) resulting in blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. The win was not flattered when Gorgeous Ginny returned to finish third beaten 4-¼ lengths in the CTBA Stakes on August 2. She will not enjoy those conditions in this race with Diamonds and Pearls and Midnight Summer vying for the early lead and she has drawn the rail after drawing post positions four and five respectively in six horse fields in her last two starts. The choice was another impressive debut winner who defeated a very strong maiden field.
After following the two-year olds during the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita and reviewing the results of the three favorites in this field one two-year old filly stood out and it is not the two morning line favorites Surrender Now and Diamonds And Pearls. SPECTATOR (#2) made her debut on June 23 where she was dismissed at 9-1. This was the dam’s first foal and she is by the first crop of Jimmy Creed. Her sire is off to a fast start in his freshman year with 7 victories from 25 starts. The Phil D’Amato trainee had worked exceptionally well for her career debut with three consecutive B works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including five furlong work from the gate on June 17 that Andy commented “Best outside Count Hu (Brocklebank) not asked in 24.0, 47.4 (up there) galloping out in 101.3. Has a nice late kick; Theriot up.” The chestnut filly ran to her win early pedigree and her works with a perfect trip victory rallying from behind a four-horse speed duel to win by 5-¼ widening lengths earning a respectable 68 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, she “sat 4-wide 2 lengths down, under light urging to hold her spot mid-turn, being aggressively ridden to take over in the stretch, widening from the rest in the final 1/16th.” What made this race so impressive was not only can she win rallying from off the pace but she also broke her maiden in the most productive maiden race of the spring-summer Santa Anita meet. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 60, 60, 61, and 66. In the past five years, trainer Phil D’Amato has won at a gaudy 31% rate (13-4-1-3) with maiden winners in their last start making their second start in a dirt sprint. She has come back to work equally as well with four works capped off by a visually impressive four-team drill on July 29 with stable mate Mag the Mighty and two Doug O'Neill trainees King Eddie and Johnny Be Bueno that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “Ran clear from older barn mate Mag The Mighty with a sharp late kick in 36.2, 100.3 getting passed by the 4f duo of King Eddie and Johnny Be Bueno (both O'Neil) out in 113.1. Plenty of upside here.” She is the third choice on the morning line and I believe that she creates excellent value as win wager or in multi-race bets by throwing out the two favorites.
The Play: With Surrender Now and Diamonds and Pearls the probable two post time favorites, I expect Spectator could be semi-overlooked in the wagering as the third choice. Instead of playing vertical wagers, I am going to suggest an old school WIN bet on our top choice and single in multi-race wagers such as Doubles and Pick 3s.
WIN bet on (2) SPECTATOR at 3-1 or better.
Race 8: Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style with the probable pacesetter Juno going straight to the front with morning line favorite Avenge tracking that rival in second and Hillhouse High sitting the pocket trip in third. Cambodia, Frenzified, and Pretty Girl will be tracking the pacesetter in midpack with Amboseli charging from the rear of the field.
The field’s top last race speed figure belongs to the morning line favorite Avenge who earned a 97 Beyer and 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Grade 1 Gamely in her last start. Juno owns the field’s top TimeformUS early pace rating with Pretty Girl the leader in the field’s top TimeformUS late pace rating in the field.
I am not going to beat morning line favorite Avenge in this race but I feel her odds will be low and there is one horse in this race that should offer attractive odds after the track surface hampered her chances on Kentucky Derby undercard. HILLHOUSE HIGH (#5) exits a sixth-place finish beaten 8-½ lengths in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile but her prior performance finishing in front of Juno and Pretty Girl prove that she belongs in a caliber of race such as Yellow Ribbon with a hard fought half-length victory in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine. In that race, the daughter of Exchange Rate sat an uncontested second behind the runaway leader Juno who opened up a four and six length lead through fast pace for a half mile earning red coded TimeformUS pace figure. She made the first move into the teeth of that fast pace to loom outside of Juno into the stretch, put that stubborn foe away past mid-stretch, and held off the late charge of stable mate Mokat to earn a career best 96 Beyer and 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Although this year’s edition of the Royal Heroine did not prove to be a productive race with the second through sixth place finishers returned to finish off the board in their next start, that did not stop her connections from entering her in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard and she defeated only one horse to the wire. However, the track surface did not suit her as she sat in comfortable spot on the rail stalking a very slow early pace in a race where the first two finishers were second and first at each call. In addition, the inside was not the best part of the turf course on Kentucky Derby card and Hillhouse High raced on the inside for the majority of the race making this effort better than what appears on the running line. She returns from a 91-day layoff but she is proven to run well fresh where she finished second beaten a head in her first start for Richard Baltas barn last August over this same Del Mar turf course off a 303-day layoff. Her trainer is a underrated trainer of turf starters this meet at Del Mar having trained Madam Dancealot (July 23, $21.20-1) to win Grade 2 San Clemente, Aura Rose (July 26, $4.50-1), and Kenriya (August 2, $7.90-1). Jockey Corey Nakatani who was aboard for two of Baltas turf wins is back in the irons and I expect her to enjoy a perfect ground saving stalk and pounce trip to score the minor upset over the deserving morning line favorite Avenge.
The Play: I am narrowed this race down to Avenge and Hillhouse High and believe that Avenge will get the jump into the stretch and Hillhouse High will rally to catch her rival who gives four pounds. I will focus on straight win and exacta wagers in this race.
WIN bet on (5) HILLHOUSE HIGH at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 5-8, 8-5.
Pick 3: 5, 8 / 5, 6 / 3, 6, 7, 12 = 2 x 2 x 4 x $2 = $32
Pick 3: 5, 8 / 3 / 3, 6, 7, 12 = 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $8
Race 9: Allowance N2X/Optional $62,500, 1-Mile Dirt, Three-year olds and up
TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style with the probable pacesetter Curlin Rules going straight to the front with River Echo and Coast Line closely tracking that leader down the backstretch. Madiba, Stormin Monarcho, and Avanti Bello will sit in midpack hoping for a pace meltdown to materialize. City Steel and Lucky J Lane will be charging from the back of the field.
Three horses are separated by only one Beyer Speed Figure point. Coastline and Curlin Rules have the top last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure with Stormin Monarcho has second highest last race Beyer Speed Figure with a 91. Coastline has the top last race 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Curlin Rules owns the field’s top TimeformUS early pace rating and should have the advantage of being the pacesetter. City Steel owns the field highest TimeformUS late pace rating.
This is great betting race and I’m playing against another Peter Miller trainee in River Echo. The British bred has been shy on visiting the winner’s circle on the main track with three seconds from four starts and his lone victory happened at the beginning of the year when his stablemate the pacesetter Aldrin stopped in the final furlong with River Echo came along to pick up the pieces to win. Last time out he did not have any real excuse as the 4-5 beaten favorite. He prompted a very slow early pace for first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-18, -8) designated by the blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite this advantageous trip he offered very little as he was out finished to the wire by subsequent two time winner Curlin Road. He returns at the same class level but his trainer has been on cold streak not visiting the Winner’s Circle since July 23 with Prime Issue and I will wait until the barn starts heating up before I back there starters.
One cannot discuss this race without mentioning the track profile at one-mile here at Del Mar. Nine of the first fourteen races at this distance were won by horses on the lead or less than one-length off the lead at the first pace call (half mile pole) for a gaudy 64% win rate. That rate is increased when you consider that twelve of the first fourteen races at this distance were won by horses that were on the lead or less than one-length off the lead at the second pace call (quarter pole) for striking 86% rate. Two horses fit that track profile but only one of them will offer a hint of a value and that horse is COASTLINE (#5).The six year old Speightstown gray is winless in three starts this year all in sprints but two of them were on the main track and in each of those defeats he had legitimate excuses. He returned from a 279-day layoff on March 31 in a Allowance N3X sprint at 6-½ furlongs and ran respectable race to finish fourth beaten 2-¾ lengths. In that race, he disputed the early lead between rivals in a four-horse speed duel through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+6, +5). He continued battling for the lead leaving the quarter pole and actually stayed on gamely with the eventual winner Cat Burglar at mid-stretch and gave way in a race he needed anyways. He did very little running when switched to the turf three weeks later finishing last in a four-horse field. The Phil D’Amato trainee returned from a two month layoff in the Grade 2 San Carlos Handicap where he was used as a rabbit for his more fancied stablemate Ransom the Moon. In that race, he was hard used leaving the gate to battle with the favorite and eventual winner Danzig Candy through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+6, +4). He battled between rivals on the far turn and approaching the quarter pole with Danzig Candy and Ransom the Moon and weaken in the stretch to finish fourth earning the field’s top last race 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That was fast edition of the San Carlos as Danzig Candy won his third straight in that race earning a 107 Beyer Speed Figure and form of that race was flattered when the runner-up returned to win the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. He will now drop for a claiming price for his current connections and was wisely scratched from last weekend’s Bing Crosby for this realistic spot. According to DRF Formulator, his trainer, Phil D’Amato, does not do well with stretch outs on the main track at Del Mar (12-0-2-2). However, his early speed is deadly over this main track at this distance and should be on the lead past the quarter pole and make the rest of the field attempt to chase him to the wire at a hint of a price.
The Play: I boiled this race down to three contenders: Coastline, Curlin Rules, and Stormin Monarcho. From those three horses I will key Coastline in exactas top and bottom and will recommend using all three equally in multi-race wagers with “A” contenders Coastline and Curlin Rules because both horses fit the track profile.
WIN bet on (5) COASTLINE at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-6. Small reverse for each.
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $62,500, 1-Mile Turf, Three and up
TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style but there are at least three horses in this race that can ensure a contested pace to set up for horses rallying from off the pace. Captain Ron, Californium, and Waldorf have either lead or pressed fractions in their recent starts that have earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Kinematico will use his rail position to sit position behind this trio of leaders. I’m Living Proof will be sitting in mid-pack and Amazon Cry looks to be in that same position and unleash strong late kick in the stretch with Tastemaker looking to be charging from the rear of the field.
When certain trainer gets hot in a specific category I will continue to wager on their horses when they are realistically placed. AMAZON CRY (#7) is that horse for trainer Phil D’Amato who has won six turf races this meet including five of them routing on this Jimmy Durante Turf Course. The Louisiana bred has routed twice and each race was better than their respective efforts would suggest. He made his debut on April 30 at one-mile on the turf at Santa Anita and finished in front of only two horses in a ten-horse field. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, he “broke a step slowly, pulled forward then steadied early to lose position, moved forward into a tracking spot down the backside, put in a nice run three-deep into and around the far turn, four-wide into the lane.” This was a better than looked in what has returned to be “key” race with the third, fourth, and tenth-place finishers returning to break their maiden in next start. He returned four weeks later stretching out to 1-⅛ miles in his second career start where he never had a chance to save ground. In that race he prompted the slow early pace three wide on first turn and down the backstretch early, he was asked to moved closer while three wide on the far turn, was right with the leaders at mid-stretch, and gave way to finish eighth beaten four-lengths behind the last to first winner Miner’s Light in another “key” race where fourth-place finisher Ample Sufficiency returned to win on July 22 with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure and fifth-place finisher Oregon came back to win his next two starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 81 and 89 respectively. He shorten up to down the hill in his last start and managed to split the field running evenly through the stretch to finish seventh behind perfect trip winner Mucho Chrome. He will now stretch back out to two turns for a barn that has won at excellent 26% (47/12-6-3) with his starters stretching out from a sprint to a route on the Del Mar turf including two this meet: Spin Me a Kiss (July 27, 2017, $1.70-1) and Spiritual Warrior (August 3, 2017, $4.70-1). Thiago Pereira remains in the irons and in a wide open race let’s opt for a horse with a winning trainer profile and sneaky form on the turf versus better company.
The Play:
WIN bet on (7) AMAZON CRY at 6-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 7-3, 7-6, 7-12. Small reverse.
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