BEST BETS:
COLLECTED (Race 8, 5-2)
BIG LEAGUE (Race 9, 8-1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and up
ICY STREET (#9, 12-1) is one of seven horses that exit maiden races on this turf course during opening week and this Street Boss colt finished fifth beaten four and three-quarter lengths behind Ample Sufficiency. However, this chestnut colt endured a terrible trip that the trouble comment “Clipped heels, chute,” does not describe the amount of trouble he had and this John Sadler trainee will be well suited returning in this one-mile maiden event on the turf. He made his career debut on April 8 at Santa Anita in a seven furlong sprint and he took advantage of a very fast early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (+8, +9) to rally from next to last to be a clear second behind the gate to wire winner Who’s Hot. This maiden race was not particularly strong one as it produced one winner, one second-place finisher, one-third place finisher, and four others that returned to finish off the board in their next start. He returned from a one-hundred day layoff on July 22 trying the grass and two turns for the first time and had average pedigree for the switch in surface. The dam Icy Pi was a maiden in nine starts and never tried the turf. She produced two winners from as many starters but none tried the turf. Street Boss has produced 15% turf route winners in the past five years and the jury was out if Icy Street would handle the surface switch. He managed to defeat more than half the field to the wire but according to Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Note writer, Icy Street was best. In that race, he “took an awkward step coming out of the chute, shuffled back along the rail down the backstretch, angled off heels at the top of the lane, dove to the inside, stopped at a pivotal moment, dove to the rail, finished with good energy, huge gallop out.” The HR Trip Note writer concluded his note of Icy Street saying “nightmare trip for the Sadler trainee who has some ability.” He had a very fast pace to rally into as the three horse battle for the early lead on July 22 earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures for the first six furlongs but he should get another contested pace in his second start on the turf as Aussie Fox, Cascade Rock, and Potent have either pressed or were forwardly placed close to red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their recent start. He gets rider switch to Tyler Baze who from his thirteen wins this meet, seven were on the turf and has worked in respectable fashion since with a pair of B- moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. With clear sailing this colt can spring the major upset in what will start my day at Del Mar.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN on bet (9) ICY STREET at 6-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 9-5, 9-6, 9-8. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, 1-½ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up
ITSINTHEPOST (#5, 4-1) is a horse that shares a similar profile to my selection in the Del Mar Oaks where his last two races indicate this Jeff Mullins might be tailing off. However, his last two defeats were much better than it would appear on paper as either pace or riding tactics compromise his chances. When this American Post gelding returned from a forty-nine day layoff on March 25 he reeled off two straight victories defeating next time out winners Ashley Luv Sugar, Liam the Charmer, and Inordinate in the Grade 2 San Luis Rey Stakes. He shipped to Keeneland for the Grade 3 Elkhorn Stakes on April 22 and he was able to parlay a perfect stalking trip en route to a length and a quarter victory matching his career best 100 Beyer Speed Figure and earning a career best 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The validity of those speed figures was confirmed when the third-place finisher, Bigger Picture, came back to win the Grade 1 United Nations and ran second beaten a neck in the Grade 2 Bowling Green earning Beyer Speed Figures of 103 and 104 respectively. The seventh-place finisher, Chocolate Ride, came back to win Allowance N3X and was second in the Grade 2 Wise Dan earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 98 respectively. He was sent off as the 9-5 post time favorite in the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham Handicap on May 28 and was victimized by a wide journey. He was hard to settle crossing the wire for the first time and was four wide into and around the first turn between rivals. The bay gelding was three wide on the backstretch chasing longshot pacesetter Patentar, began to be under a drive midway on the far turn, made one last run at mid-stretch, and finally weaken as he was out finished for the minor placings. This defeat did not dampen his connections faith in their gelding as he shipped to Monmouth Park for the Grade 1 United Nations and questionable riding tactics by jockey Tyler Baze resulted in defeat. Instead of tracking the favorite, Beach Patrol, those two engaged in a heated pace battle where at one point they opened up a four and half-length lead on the next closest horse through enervating fractions that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite this fast pace, It’s In the Post actually held on well to mid-stretch before getting swallowed up by the off the pace runners as the first, second, and fourth-place finishers rallied from ninth, fifth, and seventh after the first six furlongs. This Grade 1 has returned to be quite productive as the aforementioned winner ran second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green and the beaten favorite and pace rival Beach Patrol returned to win Grade 1 Arlington Million with a comparable 101 Beyer Speed Figure. The 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned in that defeat is tied with the second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field and with his tactical speed should get a great trip. One dimensional front-runner Mr. Roary will go to the front end closely tracked or pressed by longshot Prime Attraction as those two enter this field with the highest TimeformUS early pace ratings. He has returned to work in superb fashion according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with back to back B+ moves including monster six furlong move in 1:16 flat on August 13 that Andy stated “Again breezed along home in 51.3, 116.1 and again was full of beans on his spirited gallop with Tyler up. Strong as ever.” Jockey Tyler Baze should place this gelding in a similar spot to his Elkhorn victory three starts ago and a repeat of that performance stamps him as major contender to spring minor upset as this brief hiatus is similar to the one he had going into San Luis Rey in March.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN on bet (5) ITSINTHEPOST at 5-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-8, 5-10. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic, 1-¼ Miles, Three-year olds and up
COLLECTED (#2, 5-2) is in the best form of his career and has been specifically pointed for the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic after his three dominating victories at Santa Anita where he won by a combined margin of twenty-one and half-lengths. Not only is the margin of victory amazing but the manner he accomplished those victories showed he not a one-dimensional front runner. The son of City Zip made his four-year old seasonal debut off a 315-day layoff in the Santana Mile on April 1 and showed the ability to rate as he sat in fourth early behind very fast pace three-horse battle for the early lead among longshots Magic Mark, Clever Royal, and post time favorite Dortmund through fast fractions for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures (+15, +8). He made four wide rush to take over the lead from the exhausted leaders Magic Mark and Dortmund and continued straight and strong to the wire to win by three and three-quarter lengths earning his first triple digit Beyer Speed Figure of 101 in the process. He parlayed moderate early pace prompting trip and speed bias en route to another three and three-quarter length romp in the Grade 2 Californian on April 22 but was held out of the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita when he was not training to the satisfaction of his trainer Bob Baffert. That was a blessing in disguise for this four-year old chestnut as he returned sixty-three days later in the Grade 3 Precisionist on June 24 and delivered a Grade 1 caliber performance that not only was visually impressive but also from a time perspective. In that race he sat off the pacesetter Donworth through moderate early fractions for half mile in 46.80 seconds. The pace began to quicken into and around the far turn where Collected put away his pace rival, opened up a large lead into mid-stretch, and continued to widen all the way to the wire to win by fourteen-lengths. From a speed figure standpoint it was one of the fastest route races in 2017. The 111 Beyer Speed Figure is the fifth highest this year at one mile of more and his 135 TimeformUS Speed Figure is tied for the fourth highest speed figure this year. His career best Beyer Speed Figure was confirmed when the third-and-fourth place finishers, Accelerate and Donworth, came back to finish first-and-second in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 109 and 97 which are twenty-three and eleven-point improvement respectively from their previous start. Now undefeated in six starts on a fast main track, he has returned with four works over the Del Mar main track but none more impressive than his six furlong move in 1:11 ⅖ on August 1 where he clearly shows an affinity for this surface (August 1 - Collected Work) and received a stellar B+ from National Turf’s Andy Harrington. From post position two with his stablemate Arrogate drawn in post position eight, I look for jockey Martin Garcia to either go for the front to take the race to the field or settle just off Accelerate if the latter elects for gate to wire tactics. In the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert has won at amazing 55% (11/6-2-2) with his starters that won their last start in a main track route in a Graded Stakes and if ever Collected will beat his stablemate it will be in Del Mar’s signature race as my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategy:
No straight wagers on this race. Instead I am going to map out my only horizontal wager on the card. The Pick 3 wagers are below.
Pick 3: 2 w/ 11 w/ 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $5 = $20
Pick 3: 2 w/ 10 w/ 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $4 = $16
Pick 3: 8 w/ 10, 11 / 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 2 x 4 x $2 = $16
Race 9: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 6 Furlongs, Three-year olds and up
BIG LEAGUE (#11, 8-1) is higher priced of my two choices as it was between him and Edwards Going Left but Speightstown gelding ran too good to lose on the second weekend of the Del Mar where he was run down by the opportunistic stalking midpack winner Tavasco Road. He ran respectable in the first of his two previous main track races this year. He returned from a 210-day layoff on April 16 in the San Pedro Stakes and he finished third beaten 8-½ lengths but had a track bias that worked against him. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, the dark bay or brown gelding “prompted the pace four-deep, outrun around the far turn, dropped back three-wide into the lane, distant third.” He was parked wide every step over a main track that strongly favored inside lanes as the winner Aristocratic led gate to wire racing on the good inside lanes throughout. He switched surfaces to the turf on May 13 in the Desert Code Stakes and was used as rabbit to ensure fast fractions earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and weaken to finish ahead of only one horse in a race where his stable mate, Arms Runner, rallied from fourth. He returned to the main track and dropped in class to Allowance N1X on the main track on June 17 versus older rivals and defeated only one horse beaten 5-lengths behind the gate to wire winner Blue Anchor. After this debacle, he dropped into a claiming race for the first time facing his own age group on July 29 stretching out to seven furlongs for the first time and this dark bay or brown gelding won the early pace battle only to lose the opportunistic winner. The HR Trip Note writer stated he “dashed to the front from the wide draw, traded blows on a suicidal pace, put away his pace foe in the far turn, came into the lane with the lead, bore out midstretch, impeded a foe, battled to the wire, second best.” The opening quarter of 22.16 and half mile of 44.50 was the fastest fractions from the first eight races at seven furlongs this meet good enough to earn him above average Moss Pace Figures (+23, +18) and of course earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and earned the field’s top last race 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. My personal note about Big League after this defeat was “he would benefit from the cut back to six furlongs.” He not only shortens up a furlong in distance but also returns in a spot where he cannot be claimed a positive sign. Drawn ideally outside for pace prompting trip or might be sent for the early lead as the speed of the speed in this field. Kent Desormeaux takes over in the irons and he is my second BEST BET on the card at a juicy 8-1 on the morning line.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN on (11) BIG LEAGUE at 5-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 11-10. Small reverse.
Small Exactas: 11-8, 11-9. No reverse.
Race 10: Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year old Fillies
DREAM DANCING (#10, 6-1) is a filly that appears to be tailing off as she ships to Del Mar for that elusive Grade 1 victory. She has been beaten a combined nine and a quarter lengths in her last two starts and has not visited the Winner’s Circle since March when she captured the Grade 3 Here Comes the Bride Stakes at Gulfstream Park. A closer inspection of her two defeats suggest that it was circumstances that results in her two losses and under different ride and or pace scenario then this daughter of Tapit can spring the minor upset for trainer Mark Casse for his long time owner John Oxley. She rallied to be second beaten only a half-length behind her stable mate La Coronel in the Grade 3 Edgewood on May 5 where she defeated subsequent next out winners Sweeping Paddy, Journey Home, and Youngest Daughter. In addition to those three winners, Proctor’s Ledge came back two starts later to win the Grade 3 Lake George on opening day at Saratoga. She was bet down to the 3-1 second choice behind the favored winner New Money Honey in the Grade 3 Wonder Again on June 8 and this stalker that prefers to sit in mid-pack had to abandon her traditional running style because of the lack of early speed in the Wonder Again. She found herself pressing the pace two wide for the majority of the race outside of the favored winner, made her run to challenge the leader into the stretch, but flattened out in the lane switching to her left lead towards the wire to be a clear third behind a winner that returned to win the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. Next she ran in the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes at Saratoga where she was bothered by an outermost post and wide journey from start to finish. She was wrangled back next to last racing two wide on the first turn and down the backstretch as the pacesetter Chubby Star was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures through the first six furlongs. The gray or roan filly made a sweeping five wide run to get into contention leaving the backstretch and around the far turn but lost her punch in the stretch finishing five and three-quarter lengths behind Proctor’s Ledge. Trakus stated that this filly covered nineteen more feet than the winner and therefore one can excuse this poor effort to a lack of early speed and wide trip. She has bounced back with two more works over the Saratoga turf training track including working heads up with stablemate La Coronel on August 11 where they finished together (Aug. 11 Dream Dancing Work) . The lack of early pace she encountered will be present with five horses in this race having triple digit TimeformUS early pace ratings in a situation that favors horses off the pace. Julien Leparoux remains aboard and I look for her to take back towards the rear of the field behind very fast pace and make that patent late run as she is only one of two horses in this race next to Beau Recall that has a triple digit TimeformUS late pace rating this the field.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (10) DREAM DANCING at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 10-5, 10-6, 10-11. Small reverse for each.
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