Gato Del Oro Looks to Shine in Shared Belief Stakes

BEST BET: GATO DEL ORO (Race 7, 4-1)

Race 6: Allowance N2X/Optional $62,500, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and upward

SKELTON PASS (#6, 6-1) is a selection that will attempt to the buck the current track profile at one-mile on this turf course. Through August 23, 2017, there have been 40 races at today’s one-mile distance on turf with only 4 of them won gate to wire for a 10% rate. However, if I get the right price on a horse then flexibility is warranted and Skelton Pass falls in that profile. Prior to his previous attempt at Del Mar, he finished a non-excuse third down the hillside turf course on June 9 where he stalked the fast pace set by the uncontested leader David’s Memory early, moved up down the hill and into the main turf course, but lugged in behind the winner at mid-stretch, refused to switch to his right lead until very late and just missed in a blanket three-horse photo finish. This was not a particularly strong race as it produced one winner, one second-place finish, and one-third place finish with four horses finishing off the board in there next start. He was claimed by trainer Mark Glatt for $40,000 off this third-place finish and returned from a fifty-one day layoff on July 30 where he received plenty of wagering support going off as the third choice at 5-1 and he finished third beaten less than two-lengths behind Tequila Joe and today’s rival Newsman. When I reviewed that race it was this gelding by Temple City that ran the best race because he won the early pace battle but lost the war to two opportunistic closers. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, this bay gelding “prompted the pace early then dueled onto the backside, took a short advantage around the far turn, remained in battle through the drive, lost the lead deep stretch, weakened inside the final part, barely won the photo for third.” This was an excellent race because the pace rival he dueled with through the first six furlongs, To the Bar, weaken badly to finish 8th beaten 4-½ lengths and the rival that stalked that duel in third, Cimpl Man, weaken to finish 7th beaten 4-¼ lengths with the first two finishers rallied from 7th and 9th. He returns at this same class level without the claiming price of $62,500 which is a positive sign and he came back with a stellar five furlong move in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating “best drill to date going clear with a zippy late 3f in 35.3 striding out like a happy sort. Seems set for best.” The biggest factor for him being the top choice has to deal with the anticipated pace scenario. Without To the Bar in this field, Skelton Pass appears he will be loose on an uncontested lead in a situation that TimeformUS feels will favor horses on or near the early lead. Tyler Baze retains the mount for trainer Mark Glatt who has won with 4 of his last 8 starters since August 20.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) SKELTON PASS at 4-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 6-4. Small reverse.

Smaller Exactas: 6-5, 6-7. No reverse.

$5 Pick 3: 6 / 4 / 2, 5, 6, 9 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $5 = $20

$4 Pick 3: 4 / 4 / 2, 5, 6, 9 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $4 = $16

Race 7: $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes, 1-Mile, Three-year olds

GATO DEL ORO (#4, 4-1) is a three-year old that really caught my eye in his second start on June 10 when he broke his maiden by 1-½ lengths where the trouble comment of “Squeezed Start, Inside” does not do justice to the trip this son of Medaglia D’Oro encountered. According to the HR Trip Notes, “Broke slow, being pinched back at the start, making his way under a hold along the inside to lead after a quarter of a mile, gradually putting away his pace rivals in the turn, kicking home strong enough while slowly drifting out to keep the late challenger at bay.” He earned at the time a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and that figure was validated when his pace rival in that race, The Rule of King’s, returned to break his maiden for a $75,000 claiming price with a career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure. His next start would be versus winners and around two turns which are two difficult obstacles for a young horse and this Richard Baltas trainee proved that he handle those two tasks in impressive fashion on opening day July 19 at Del Mar. The HR Trip Notes stated “Broke beautifully, settled on the flank of the pacesetter, bore down on the lead in the far turn, took over in hand, chased to the wire,” with an excellent gallop out after the wire like a prospect that was stakes bound earning career best 93 Beyer Speed Figure and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The early pace was very fast according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+17, +9) and the early pace took its toll on those on or near the front end as horses that chased Gato Del Oro weaken to finish 6th, 7th, and 10th beaten 11-¼, 11-½, and 19-¼ lengths respectively. The $150,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase is out of a dam that produced Grade 1 winners Pussycat Doll and is a full sibling to Jimmy Creed is now realistically placed in this age restricted stakes event where he will take on Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Gormley and Grade 1 Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Battle of Midway but I feel that we have not seen the best from this Richard Baltas trainee. National Turf’s Andy Harrington feels this colt can only get better after he witness his best of sixteen six-furlong move in 1:11 ⅖ on August 12 that he stated in this B+ move “big drill breaking 4 lengths clear from Inordinate going 35.3 waiting on that one in the lane going 59.4 then finishing with a rush in 111.4 to the 7f pole, galloping well in 125.2. Streaker gets better and better; Bejarano up and blinkers on.” If Battle of Midway with new blinkers elects to go for the early lead I expect jockey Rafael Bejarano to place his mount in second right off that rival’s flank before making his run at the leader into and around the far turn. I felt one week ago that this colt will go off favored but when I found out on Wednesday that Battle of Midway and Gormley are in the same race I had more confidence because now we will get a price on a colt that has the potential to win a Grade 1 race in the future. He is my BEST BET OF THE MEET and I expect a career best performance from this regally bred colt.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (4) GATO DEL ORO at 7-2 or better

Main Exactas: 4-3, 4-7. No reverse.  

Race 9: Grade 2 Pat O’Brien, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward

BLAMEITONTHELAW (#5, 12-1) is a horse that will benefit from the unfortunate scratch of the morning line favorite Danzig Candy as now this race is wide open and lacks a confirmed pacesetter. The son of Blame recorded a victory and two second place finishes from four previous starts sprinting on the main track but signs showed that this John Sadler trainee was rounding into form when he finished an excellent second behind Ransom the Moon on April 30 at Santa Anita. In that race, he trailed early behind a three-horse battle for the early lead that went moderate fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-3, -5) for the first half mile. He moved up between rivals leaving the backstretch and made a three wide run on the far turn to challenge eventual winner Ransom the Moon all the way to mid-stretch and was well clear of the rest of the field finishing 4-¼ lengths in front of the third-place finisher earning a then career best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The strength of that race was flattered when the winner returned to win Grade 2 Kona Gold, was second in the Grade 2 San Carlos Handicap, and won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes here at Del Mar. He returned to the turf down the hillside turf course in his next race and finished a clear second behind the gate to wire winner Tiz A Billy. He returned to the Del Mar main track on July 21 the scene where he broke his maiden in his career debut in August 2015 and switched to Evan Roman for the first time and the result was game victory earning a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure and the field’s top last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. For a horse that had not shown a lot of early speed, Blame It on the Law showed that asset where he was inside of a four-horse speed duel through blazing fractions of 22.01 opening quarter and 44.26 second half mile, he was passed by Distinctive B into the stretch, re-rallied along the inside into the stretch, and pulled clear towards the wire to win by a half-length. The race was flattered when the fourth-place finisher, American Pastime, came back to win Allowance N2X earning improved 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The pace was enervating earning above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+11, +10) good enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figure. Moreover, the half mile split is the fastest of the 30 races at 6-½ furlongs this meet. Two of the four pace rivals weaken badly to finish 6th beaten 8-½ lengths and 8th beaten 14-¼ lengths. Lastly, Blame it on the Law was the only horse on July 21 card that won pressing the pace from the inside as the four other sprints on that program were won by horses off the pace running on the outside paths noted by the blue TimeformUS race rating box. He has come back with four works including five furlong move from the gate on August 13 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Retains speed.” He should get a good trip either on the lead as the speed of this field or in a pace pressing role outside of Mr. Hinx and Moe Candy. In a race that is wide open Blame It on the Law is good alternative with his affinity for the Del Mar main track and pace scenario that should sit his pace pressing running style at a hint of a price.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (5) BLAMEITONTHELAW at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-4, 5-10. Small reverse.

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three-year olds and upward

CHIDAMAC (#6, 8-1) is a horse that is fresh face in a race where the majority of the field exit the July 28 maiden race won by Kings River King. The rest of the field behind that winner are filled with trail maidens as they are winless in nineteen starts and six of those entrants return in the same race I am taking a stand against them all with the new face Chidamac. This son of McCann’s Mojave was sent off at 30-1 in his career debut and he had little pedigree to suggest that sprinting on the main track is what he wanted to do. His dam, Chichim, won seven of twenty-six starts with three of her wins sprinting on the main track and three of her wins sprinting on the turf. McCann’s Mojave was route horse that won the Sunshine Millions Classic, All American, and Berkeley Handicaps at a distance of ground. Also, trainer Matthew Chew does not crack his horses to win in their career debut preferring to give his starters a race. In the past five years, he is winless in thirteen starts with two of them finishing in the money. With a pedigree that lacked win early and trainer that does not crack them early to win, one can understand why Chidamac was 30-1 at post time and he actually ran a respectable race to split the field in fifth behind gate to wire first time starter winner Raul Rosas who won by five and three-quarter lengths earning an excellent 87 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the HR Trip Notes, Chidamac “hopped at the break and bumped a foe to spot the field three lengths, settled in last after his rider lost and regained his iron, well back in the far turn, grinded home past spent foes in the lane.” The validity of that figure has already been confirmed. The seventh-place finisher, Make it a Triple, improved seventeen Beyer Speed Figure points to break his maiden for $20,000 with a 75 Beyer Speed Figure. The second-and-eighth place finishers, Vegas Vic and Tule Fog, improved fifteen and twenty-one Beyer Speed Figure points respectively finishing second and third respectively in their next start behind Morgan S on August 18 earning 89 and 76 Beyer Speed Figures. He has bounced back with three works including his last two moves on August 12 and August 19 that really caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington that raved about them giving it a B including the former work where he was under a “light hold late outside next out 2 year old winner Bob's All In finishing with some left late. Should like any added distance.” Thiago Pereria remains aboard for his second career start and I expect major improvement on the surface switch and stretch out to two turns at a nice price.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) CHIDAMAC at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-9, 6-10. Small reverse for each.  

Collected Looks To Grab the Spotlight in the Pacific Classic

BEST BETS:

COLLECTED (Race 8, 5-2)

BIG LEAGUE (Race 9, 8-1)

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and up

ICY STREET (#9, 12-1) is one of seven horses that exit maiden races on this turf course during opening week and this Street Boss colt finished fifth beaten four and three-quarter lengths behind Ample Sufficiency. However, this chestnut colt endured a terrible trip that the trouble comment “Clipped heels, chute,” does not describe the amount of trouble he had and this John Sadler trainee will be well suited returning in this one-mile maiden event on the turf. He made his career debut on April 8 at Santa Anita in a seven furlong sprint and he took advantage of a very fast early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (+8, +9) to rally from next to last to be a clear second behind the gate to wire winner Who’s Hot. This maiden race was not particularly strong one as it produced one winner, one second-place finisher, one-third place finisher, and four others that returned to finish off the board in their next start. He returned from a one-hundred day layoff on July 22 trying the grass and two turns for the first time and had average pedigree for the switch in surface. The dam Icy Pi was a maiden in nine starts and never tried the turf. She produced two winners from as many starters but none tried the turf. Street Boss has produced 15% turf route winners in the past five years and the jury was out if Icy Street would handle the surface switch. He managed to defeat more than half the field to the wire but according to Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Note writer, Icy Street was best. In that race, he “took an awkward step coming out of the chute, shuffled back along the rail down the backstretch, angled off heels at the top of the lane, dove to the inside, stopped at a pivotal moment, dove to the rail, finished with good energy, huge gallop out.” The HR Trip Note writer concluded his note of Icy Street saying “nightmare trip for the Sadler trainee who has some ability.”  He had a very fast pace to rally into as the three horse battle for the early lead on July 22 earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures for the first six furlongs but he should get another contested pace in his second start on the turf as Aussie Fox, Cascade Rock, and Potent have either pressed or were forwardly placed close to red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their recent start. He gets rider switch to Tyler Baze who from his thirteen wins this meet, seven were on the turf and has worked in respectable fashion since with a pair of B- moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. With clear sailing this colt can spring the major upset in what will start my day at Del Mar.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN on bet (9) ICY STREET at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 9-5, 9-6, 9-8. Small reverse for each.

Race 7: Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, 1-½ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up

ITSINTHEPOST (#5, 4-1) is a horse that shares a similar profile to my selection in the Del Mar Oaks where his last two races indicate this Jeff Mullins might be tailing off. However, his last two defeats were much better than it would appear on paper as either pace or riding tactics compromise his chances. When this American Post gelding returned from a forty-nine day layoff on March 25 he reeled off two straight victories defeating next time out winners Ashley Luv Sugar, Liam the Charmer, and Inordinate in the Grade 2 San Luis Rey Stakes. He shipped to Keeneland for the Grade 3 Elkhorn Stakes on April 22 and he was able to parlay a perfect stalking trip en route to a length and a quarter victory matching his career best 100 Beyer Speed Figure and earning a career best 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The validity of those speed figures was confirmed when the third-place finisher, Bigger Picture, came back to win the Grade 1 United Nations and ran second beaten a neck in the Grade 2 Bowling Green earning Beyer Speed Figures of 103 and 104 respectively. The seventh-place finisher, Chocolate Ride, came back to win Allowance N3X and was second in the Grade 2 Wise Dan earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 98 respectively. He was sent off as the 9-5 post time favorite in the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham Handicap on May 28 and was victimized by a wide journey. He was hard to settle crossing the wire for the first time and was four wide into and around the first turn between rivals. The bay gelding was three wide on the backstretch chasing longshot pacesetter Patentar, began to be under a drive midway on the far turn, made one last run at mid-stretch, and finally weaken as he was out finished for the minor placings. This defeat did not dampen his connections faith in their gelding as he shipped to Monmouth Park for the Grade 1 United Nations and questionable riding tactics by jockey Tyler Baze resulted in defeat. Instead of tracking the favorite, Beach Patrol, those two engaged in a heated pace battle where at one point they opened up a four and half-length lead on the next closest horse through enervating fractions that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite this fast pace, It’s In the Post actually held on well to mid-stretch before getting swallowed up by the off the pace runners as the first, second, and fourth-place finishers rallied from ninth, fifth, and seventh after the first six furlongs. This Grade 1 has returned to be quite productive as the aforementioned winner ran second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green and the beaten favorite and pace rival Beach Patrol returned to win Grade 1 Arlington Million with a comparable 101 Beyer Speed Figure. The 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned in that defeat is tied with the second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field and with his tactical speed should get a great trip. One dimensional front-runner Mr. Roary will go to the front end closely tracked or pressed by longshot Prime Attraction as those two enter this field with the highest TimeformUS early pace ratings. He has returned to work in superb fashion according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with back to back B+ moves including monster six furlong move in 1:16 flat on August 13 that Andy stated “Again breezed along home in 51.3, 116.1 and again was full of beans on his spirited gallop with Tyler up. Strong as ever.” Jockey Tyler Baze should place this gelding in a similar spot to his Elkhorn victory three starts ago and a repeat of that performance stamps him as major contender to spring minor upset as this brief hiatus is similar to the one he had going into San Luis Rey in March.   

Wagering Strategy:

WIN on bet (5) ITSINTHEPOST at 5-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-8, 5-10. Small reverse for each.

Race 8: Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic, 1-¼ Miles, Three-year olds and up

COLLECTED (#2, 5-2) is in the best form of his career and has been specifically pointed for the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic after his three dominating victories at Santa Anita where he won by a combined margin of twenty-one and half-lengths. Not only is the margin of victory amazing but the manner he accomplished those victories showed he not a one-dimensional front runner. The son of City Zip made his four-year old seasonal debut off a 315-day layoff in the Santana Mile on April 1 and showed the ability to rate as he sat in fourth early behind very fast pace three-horse battle for the early lead among longshots Magic Mark, Clever Royal, and post time favorite Dortmund through fast fractions for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures (+15, +8). He made four wide rush to take over the lead from the exhausted leaders Magic Mark and Dortmund and continued straight and strong to the wire to win by three and three-quarter lengths earning his first triple digit Beyer Speed Figure of 101 in the process. He parlayed moderate early pace prompting trip and speed bias en route to another three and three-quarter length romp in the Grade 2 Californian on April 22 but was held out of the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita when he was not training to the satisfaction of his trainer Bob Baffert. That was a blessing in disguise for this four-year old chestnut as he returned sixty-three days later in the Grade 3 Precisionist on June 24 and delivered a Grade 1 caliber performance that not only was visually impressive but also from a time perspective. In that race he sat off the pacesetter Donworth through moderate early fractions for half mile in 46.80 seconds. The pace began to quicken into and around the far turn where Collected put away his pace rival, opened up a large lead into mid-stretch, and continued to widen all the way to the wire to win by fourteen-lengths. From a speed figure standpoint it was one of the fastest route races in 2017. The 111 Beyer Speed Figure is the fifth highest this year at one mile of more and his 135 TimeformUS Speed Figure is tied for the fourth highest speed figure this year. His career best Beyer Speed Figure was confirmed when the third-and-fourth place finishers, Accelerate and Donworth, came back to finish first-and-second in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 109 and 97 which are twenty-three and eleven-point improvement respectively from their previous start. Now undefeated in six starts on a fast main track, he has returned with four works over the Del Mar main track but none more impressive than his six furlong move in 1:11 ⅖ on August 1 where he clearly shows an affinity for this surface (August 1 - Collected Work) and received a stellar B+ from National Turf’s Andy Harrington. From post position two with his stablemate Arrogate drawn in post position eight, I look for jockey Martin Garcia to either go for the front to take the race to the field or settle just off Accelerate if the latter elects for gate to wire tactics. In the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert has won at amazing 55% (11/6-2-2) with his starters that won their last start in a main track route in a Graded Stakes and if ever Collected will beat his stablemate it will be in Del Mar’s signature race as my BEST BET on the card.

Wagering Strategy:

No straight wagers on this race. Instead I am going to map out my only horizontal wager on the card. The Pick 3 wagers are below.

Pick 3: 2 w/ 11 w/ 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $5 = $20

Pick 3: 2 w/ 10 w/ 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $4 = $16

Pick 3: 8 w/ 10, 11 / 5, 6, 10, 11 = 1 x 2 x 4 x $2 = $16

Race 9: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 6 Furlongs, Three-year olds and up

BIG LEAGUE (#11, 8-1) is higher priced of my two choices as it was between him and Edwards Going Left but Speightstown gelding ran too good to lose on the second weekend of the Del Mar where he was run down by the opportunistic stalking midpack winner Tavasco Road. He ran respectable in the first of his two previous main track races this year. He returned from a 210-day layoff on April 16 in the San Pedro Stakes and he finished third beaten 8-½ lengths but had a track bias that worked against him. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, the dark bay or brown gelding “prompted the pace four-deep, outrun around the far turn, dropped back three-wide into the lane, distant third.” He was parked wide every step over a main track that strongly favored inside lanes as the winner Aristocratic led gate to wire racing on the good inside lanes throughout. He switched surfaces to the turf on May 13 in the Desert Code Stakes and was used as rabbit to ensure fast fractions earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and weaken to finish ahead of only one horse in a race where his stable mate, Arms Runner, rallied from fourth. He returned to the main track and dropped in class to Allowance N1X on the main track on June 17 versus older rivals and defeated only one horse beaten 5-lengths behind the gate to wire winner Blue Anchor. After this debacle, he dropped into a claiming race for the first time facing his own age group on July 29 stretching out to seven furlongs for the first time and this dark bay or brown gelding won the early pace battle only to lose the opportunistic winner. The HR Trip Note writer stated he “dashed to the front from the wide draw, traded blows on a suicidal pace, put away his pace foe in the far turn, came into the lane with the lead, bore out midstretch, impeded a foe, battled to the wire, second best.” The opening quarter of 22.16 and half mile of 44.50 was the fastest fractions from the first eight races at seven furlongs this meet good enough to earn him above average Moss Pace Figures (+23, +18) and of course earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and earned the field’s top last race 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. My personal note about Big League after this defeat was “he would benefit from the cut back to six furlongs.” He not only shortens up a furlong in distance but also returns in a spot where he cannot be claimed a positive sign. Drawn ideally outside for pace prompting trip or might be sent for the early lead as the speed of the speed in this field. Kent Desormeaux takes over in the irons and he is my second BEST BET on the card at a juicy 8-1 on the morning line.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN on (11) BIG LEAGUE at 5-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 11-10. Small reverse.

Small Exactas: 11-8, 11-9. No reverse.

Race 10: Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year old Fillies

DREAM DANCING (#10, 6-1) is a filly that appears to be tailing off as she ships to Del Mar for that elusive Grade 1 victory. She has been beaten a combined nine and a quarter lengths in her last two starts and has not visited the Winner’s Circle since March when she captured the Grade 3 Here Comes the Bride Stakes at Gulfstream Park. A closer inspection of her two defeats suggest that it was circumstances that results in her two losses and under different ride and or pace scenario then this daughter of Tapit can spring the minor upset for trainer Mark Casse for his long time owner John Oxley. She rallied to be second beaten only a half-length behind her stable mate La Coronel in the Grade 3 Edgewood on May 5 where she defeated subsequent next out winners Sweeping Paddy, Journey Home, and Youngest Daughter. In addition to those three winners, Proctor’s Ledge came back two starts later to win the Grade 3 Lake George on opening day at Saratoga. She was bet down to the 3-1 second choice behind the favored winner New Money Honey in the Grade 3 Wonder Again on June 8 and this stalker that prefers to sit in mid-pack had to abandon her traditional running style because of the lack of early speed in the Wonder Again. She found herself pressing the pace two wide for the majority of the race outside of the favored winner, made her run to challenge the leader into the stretch, but flattened out in the lane switching to her left lead towards the wire to be a clear third behind a winner that returned to win the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. Next she ran in the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes at Saratoga where she was bothered by an outermost post and wide journey from start to finish. She was wrangled back next to last racing two wide on the first turn and down the backstretch as the pacesetter Chubby Star was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures through the first six furlongs. The gray or roan filly made a sweeping five wide run to get into contention leaving the backstretch and around the far turn but lost her punch in the stretch finishing five and three-quarter lengths behind Proctor’s Ledge. Trakus stated that this filly covered nineteen more feet than the winner and therefore one can excuse this poor effort to a lack of early speed and wide trip. She has bounced back with two more works over the Saratoga turf training track including working heads up with stablemate La Coronel on August 11 where they finished together (Aug. 11 Dream Dancing Work) . The lack of early pace she encountered will be present with five horses in this race having triple digit TimeformUS early pace ratings in a situation that favors horses off the pace. Julien Leparoux remains aboard and I look for her to take back towards the rear of the field behind very fast pace and make that patent late run as she is only one of two horses in this race next to Beau Recall that has a triple digit TimeformUS late pace rating this the field.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (10) DREAM DANCING at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 10-5, 10-6, 10-11. Small reverse for each.

Constellation Looks to Turn the Tables in Rancho Bernardo

BEST BET: TOOREEN DANCER (Race 7, 7-2)

Race 6: Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares

This field of five might be small on quantity but it sure makes up in quality as the entire field has combined with twenty-four career victories with three Graded Stakes winners in this field. TimeformUS pace projector sees this race with three horses vying for the early lead among longshot Rockport Babe, Bendable, and Constellation. Muny Spirit will drop back behind this trio of leaders with Skye Diamond trailing the field early but should be no more than two-lengths behind the early leaders after the first pace call.

Skye Diamonds enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (99) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (121). Constellation leads the field in TimeformUS early pace rating and Skye Diamonds leads the field in TimeformUS late pace rating. Despite the numerous accolades for Skye Diamonds, this distance over this surface might be her undoing when you consider the track profile this meet.

Sprints have always favored early speed and none more this meet than at 6-½ furlongs. There have been nineteen races run at 6-½ furlongs and amazing fourteen of them were won by horses on the lead or less than one-length off the lead at the first pace call. That is a 74% strike rate. Horses that will be forwardly placed on or near the lead will get top preference and that is lead by TimeformUS leader in early pace CONSTELLATION (#4) who looks to turn the tables on Skye Diamonds. This daughter of Bellamy Road is one of three runners with a Graded Stakes victory and she scored her first victory in a Grade 1 in the La Brea Stakes on December 26 where she parlayed a perfect pace prompting trip through moderate early fractions to run down the pacesetter and second choice Finley’s Lucky Charm earning career best 95 Beyer Speed Figure. This victory was important not only because of the Grade 1 black type she earned but she did so over a monster “key” race field. The runner-up Finley’s Lucky Charm won her next three starts and missed a fourth when she finished a neck behind Paula’s Silver Lining in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga. The third-place finisher, Enola Gray, returned to win three of her next four starts concluded with a gate to wire victory in the Grade 3 Wilshire Stakes at Santa Anita. Lastly, also ran Perfect Pic returned to win her next two starts. After subpar effort in the Las Flores run during a driving rainstorm, she returned to top form with an excellent second-place finish behind the streaking Paula’s Silver Lining in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland. In that race she was asked for speed and battled in a three-horse speed duel between two longshots Ponder Lea and Kathballu through a 23.03 second opening quarter which earned above average Moss Pace Figure (+14). She put away those two pace rivals to assume command around the far turn, raced extremely off the rail on the turn and into the stretch as the favoriter Paula’s Silver Lining loomed up inside of her to challenge Constellation and she refused to quit losing by a neck where the winner went on to win Grade 1 Humana Distaff and Grade 2 Honorable Miss. Constellation lost nothing in defeat as her two pace rivals weaken to finish fifth beaten 4-½ lengths and eighth beaten 7-¼ lengths. She finished in front of last year’s BC Filly and Mare Sprint winner Finest City but was no match behind opportunistic stalking winner Skye Diamonds last time in the Grade 2 Great Lady M at Los Alamitos. She has bounced back with four works including two of them that earned the bullet designation at Los Alamitos. As mentioned her early speed is incredible asset at this distance and in her second race off the three-month layoff look for Jerry Hollendorfer trainee to be stronger filly to score minor upset with Flavien Prat reunited in the irons.

The Play: If I get 5-2 or higher on Constellation I will recommend a WIN bet on her but I am going to focus my action in this race in Pick 4 because I look to beat the favorite Spooky Woods in the next race.

WIN bet on (4) CONSTELLATION at 5-2 or better.

Pick 4: 4 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10    = 1 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $2  = $8

Pick 4: 2, 3 w/ 6 / 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10   = 2 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $16

Pick 4: 4 w/ 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 x $1 =$16

Pick 4: 4 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 2, 7       = 1 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $8  

Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional $75,000, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

The first leg of the final Pick 3 on Sunday’s card is excellent gambling event and presents a pace scenario that could go faster than TimeformUS pace projector predicts. Lyrics and Painting Corners have either set or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts and those two compose the early pace. Lake Time, Sabaurai, and morning line favorite Spooky Woods look to sit a garden trip behind this early duel. War Mocassin, Tooreen Dancer, and Cynthiana are three horses with potent late kick.

The morning line favorite that I will take a stand against in this race is Spooky Woods who will make her first start on the turf returning off almost a two-month layoff. Based on her pedigree and her trainer’s history with starters trying turf for the first time at Del Mar, Spooky Woods looks to be a vulnerable choice. He is by 13% turf sire in Ghostzapper and the dam Winter Forest has produced five starters with four winners but none were turf winners. Brigade won 3-of-21 starts on the main track but was 0-for-5 routing on the turf. Dixie Winter is a maiden after eleven starts and was 0-for-3 routing on the turf. Next, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has worked her twice on the turf this meet but previous history suggest that morning works on the surface does not translate to success in the afternoon. In the past five years, Jerry Hollendorfer has connected at paltry 4% (23/1-1-6) with his starters trying the turf for the first time at Del Mar. Despite the glorying reports from National Turf’s Andy Harrington on Spooky Woods two turf works, the lack of pedigree plus trainer Jerry Hollendorfer lack of success with this type makes her a bet against.

One of the first horses that went on my horses to watch list on opening week returns in this race and thankfully with a positive rider switch. TOOREEN DANCER (#6) was privately purchased by Little Red Feather Racing club after she broke her maiden in her career debut on the all-weather track at Dundalk last November. She defeated a full field of fourteen juveniles where the TimeformUS analyst commented “overcame inexperience to make a winning debut,” and was “open to improvement.” The daughter of Vale of York made her first start off a 254-day layoff on July 21 where she had worked in respectable fashion according to Andy Harrington including a B- move with stablemate Newsman who returned to run second in Allowance N2X on July 30 here at Del Mar. The Phil D’Amato trainee did not get a lot of support at the windows going off at 8-1 and finished seventh beaten 2-¼ lengths behind the gate to wire winner Meadowsweet. A closer examination of that defeat would suggest that Tooreeen Dancer is better than her United States debut would indicate. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, this bay filly was “Three-wide at the rear of the main pack, going forward Four-wide in the turn, making a bold move for the lead turning for home, understandably flattening out in the final 1/16th.” The winner was a deserving winner winning the pace battle over longshot Tiburtina and fending off the challenge of favorite Pacific Wind. However, Tooreen Dancer never had a fair chance. Next to the premature move, she covered thirty-three more feet then the winner according to Trakus. She makes her second start in United States with a significant rider change to Kent Desormeaux who has six turf victories this meet and he should give his filly that patent one-late run in a race with plenty of early speed signed on from Lyrics and Painting Corners. Trainer Phil D’Amato is Del Mar’s leading turf trainer with seven victories and five of those wins happened routing on this turf course. She bounced back with a solid five-furlong spin on the turf on August 2 in 1:02 ⅖ where Andy Harrington commented “Came home happily with Nodiac in this clever looking drill in 38.0, 102.3. Could not separate them here; seems better than last.” I expect improvement in her second start with D’Amato who scores a 100 TimeformUS trainer rating with that move as my BEST BET on the card.

The Play: I look for a pace meltdown in this race to fall apart for the closers. Spooky Woods, Lyrics, and Painting Corners all have early or contending speed to be right up with leading group and over a distance on this turf course that favors stalkers/closers I will structure my wagers with that scenario.

WIN bet on (6) TOOREEN DANCER to WIN at 5-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-1, 6-7. Small reverse for each.

Trifecta part-wheel: 6 w/ 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 = $16 for a $2 Wager

Trifecta part-wheel: 1, 7 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 =  $8 for a $1 Wager

Pick 3: 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10     = 1 x 4 x 2 x $2 = $16

Pick 3: 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 2 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $16

Pick 3: 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 2, 7       = 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $8

Race 8: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds and up

The first leg of the late Daily Double will only be the third race at today’s mile and a sixteenth distance this meet and the TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style but two horses have the most early speed. Tribal Jewel will look to go for the early lead with Stringent either on the lead or pressing the pace in second. Brimstoned, Rocket Fuel, and Irish Freedom are trio of runners that will be tracking this leading duo down the backstretch. Horses that will be charging with strong late kick are General Kitten, Ain’t Misbehavin, and Saint Dermot.

The field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure belongs to General Kitten (87) and the field’s top last race TimeformUS Speed Figure on the main track goes to Tribal Jewel (114). The latter also owns the field’s top TimeformUS early pace rating with four horses tie with the field’s top TimeformUS late pace rating General Kitten, Ain’t Misbehavin, Saint Dermot, and Irish Freedom.

Although there have been only two races at mile and sixteenth there has been twenty-six route races this meet and seventeen of them were won by horses on the lead or within one-length of the lead after the first half mile. This information boils this race down to horses with speed to lead or sit forwardly placed to the early pace. STRINGENT (#2) has not visited the Winner’s Circle since June 2015 and so far he is winless in six starts this year with two third-place finishes. He had only one race around two turns on May 21 at Santa Anita and he finished a respectable third beaten less than two-lengths in a race that set up perfectly for the opportunistic stalker nine-year old Soi Phet (12-for-53). In that race the son of Lemon Drop Kid went out for the early lead vying for the pace between Candy Promises and Kristo early through moderate early fractions for the first half mile. He poked in his head in front turning for home putting away Candy Promises but was out gamed towards the wire by the latter and out finished by the stalking Soi Phet to lose by only 1-¾ lengths. He earned a career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure on the main track. The David Hofmans trainee returned from a two-month layoff on July 21 here at Del Mar where he was turning back to six and a half furlongs and he tired badly to finish sixth beaten 8-½ lengths but this margin of defeat was the result of being involved in a heated and contested pace battle. The home-bred flashed his early speed in the two-path racing in four-horse speed duel through a wicked 22.01 second opening quarter and 44.26 second half mile that earn above average Moss Pace Figures (+10, +11) and earned red coded TimeformUS pace figure. He was under a drive and began to drop back midway on the far turn finishing sixth earning the field’s second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 113. From the first fifteen races at six and a half furlongs this meet, the 44.26 second half mile is the fastest this meet. He will now stretch out to two turns and in the past three years, David Hofmans connects at 25% (16/4-1-1) with his starters stretching out from a sprint to a route on the main track. He has historically always been a good work horse in the morning and has continued that trend with two bullet works at five and six furlongs including six furlong move at Los Alamitos on August 8 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant commented “always stylish worker was reaching in his usual noteworthy manner. Situation normal.” After pressing an enervating pace in his last start, he should find himself on the lead on the stretch out which has been a winning profile this meet in route races and should be a price with form clouded by four out of the money efforts this year.

The Play: STRINGENT is the selection to go gate to wire but he will not be the only horse I will use on my wagers. Morning line favorite Tribal Jewel wins too many races not to merit respect (12-for-48), Rocket Fuel who was bothered by a slow start from the rail on opening weekend behind fast and streaking winner Prime Issue, and Irish Freedom who ran better than looked in his only start at this distance.

WIN bet on (2) STRINGENT at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-1, 2-10, 2-11. Small reverse for each.

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year old Fillies

The finale does not have sufficient amount of data for accurate Pace Projector. Only two horses, Poco Suenos and morning line favorite Dawn Traveller, are the only horses in the field with turf experience. The remainder of the field will make their first start on turf and around two turns. Insist on a horse with a price and luckily this race represents that opportunity.

The July 23 maiden race won by Newport Breeze only earned a 60 Beyer Speed Figure but that race might be stronger than the final speed figure would suggest. The runner-up, Dancing Belle, improved twelve Beyer Speed Figure points to a 70 when she ran second to Spectator in last week’s Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes to indicate that maiden race is better than the final time. Two horses exit that race but one of them is especially well bred for the surface switch to turf and two turns. LADYBUG (#5) was all the rage in her debut going off as the 2-1 second choice behind post time favorite Krissy’s Manicure based on her work tab. She had worked a series of B- works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a impressive five furlong work from the gate on July 3 that Andy commented “Prat up; broke in good order leading barn mate Whirling all the way in 35.4, 48.0, 100.2. Even keeled and steady.” However two items that persuaded me off this filly in her career debut. Firstly, trainer Richard Mandella had won only once in his previous seven first time starters making their debut in a dirt sprint maiden special weight at Del Mar. Secondly, Ladybug’s pedigree was tilted to routing on the turf and my belief was that this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was going to need a race in her career debut. In that race, Ladybug was parked in a congested battle for the early lead racing four wide in a six horse scramble for the early lead through a fast 22.00 second flat opening quarter which was fast enough to earn above average Moss Pace Figure (+16) and red coded TimeformUS pace figure. She was the first to back out of that speed duel into the far turn and was not asked through the stretch meaning seventeen-length margin of defeat means little. She will now stretch out and try turf for the first time and based on trainer Richard Mandella success with those moves and her pedigree Ladybug should appreciate the change. In the past five years, Richard Mandella has won at 21% (14/3-3-3) with second time starters making their first start on the turf and in a route with two of those winners happened at Del Mar: Dreamologist (September 4, 2015, $1.80-1) and Ky. Colonel (August 10, 2016, $2.20-1). Ladybug is by Medaglia D’Oro who connects at 16% with two-year old routing on the turf and her dam has produced five winners from six starters with two of those starters winning on the turf. She returned with a half mile move in 48 ⅘ on August 1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “breezed a 1/2 mile out of the gate in 48.2 but clearly appeared more fit, galloping well in 101.0 out again 114.1. Stepping up some.” Although Flavien Prat leaves Ladybug for the morning line favorite Dawn Traveller, she gets the services of Drayden Van Dyke who has scored six turf victories this meet. I expect major improvement on the surface switch and additional distance and the higher priced of my four main contenders in this race.

Attention should also be given to morning line favorite DAWN TRAVELLER (#10) who finished fourth beaten only a length in her career debut at the Curragh where TimeformUS analyst commented that she is “open to improvement.” The gray daughter of Dragon Pulse ran into a strong field as the runner-up, Now You’re Talking, came back to finish fourth in a twenty-three horse field in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. The third-place finisher Clemmie went on to win the Group 3 Grangecon Stud Stakes at Curragh on July 2 and came back twelve days later to win Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket. Trainer Simon Callaghan wins at 23% rate (31/7-1-2) with foreign shippers making their North American debut in a turf route including Beau Recall (January 29, 2017, $8.80-1) for these same owners. Flavien Prat is lured away from Ladybug for this filly and if she improves off her solid debut race she will prove tough to beat in second career start.

The Play: Ladybug and Dawn Traveller are my co-top choices and we will round out my exactas with Gia Lula who looks to get a great ground saving trip from post position two with winning connections and exits potential key race on July 23 and Cinnamon Twist who worked in company with Dawn Traveller and is half sibling to two-time turf winner Oregon.

WIN bet on (5) LADYBUG at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-2, 5-7, 5-10. No reverse.

Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-5, 10-7. No reverse.

Spectator Looks to Remain Undefeated in Sorrento

BEST BET: SPECTATOR (Race 6, 5-2)

Race 6: Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year old fillies

TimeformUS pace projector feels this race will not favor a specific running style. Diamonds And Pearls and Midnight Summer will vie for the early lead with horses such as Surrender Now, Spectator, and Terra’s Angel in the first flight behind this early duel. Dancing Belle and Spirit of Shanghai will be charging from off the early pace.

The field’s top last race speed figure belongs to the undefeated Surrender Now with 79 and 96 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. Midnight Summer owns the top last race TimeformUS early pace rating with Diamonds And Pearls a close second. The field’s best TimeformUS late kick belongs to the maiden Dancing Belle.

My play against in this race is the undefeated Surrender Now who comes into this race with a convincing eight-length victory in the Landaluce Stakes on July 2 at Santa Anita. In that race she enjoyed ideal conditions pressing the pace outside of the second favorite Gorgeous Ginny early, put that rival away with ease around the far turn, and widen with ease while geared down to the wire. The biggest issue with that win was she had perfect trip pressing a very slow half mile per the Moss Pace Figures (-9, -6) resulting in blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. The win was not flattered when Gorgeous Ginny returned to finish third beaten 4-¼ lengths in the CTBA Stakes on August 2.  She will not enjoy those conditions in this race with Diamonds and Pearls and Midnight Summer vying for the early lead and she has drawn the rail after drawing post positions four and five respectively in six horse fields in her last two starts. The choice was another impressive debut winner who defeated a very strong maiden field.

After following the two-year olds during the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita and reviewing the results of the three favorites in this field one two-year old filly stood out and it is not the two morning line favorites Surrender Now and Diamonds And Pearls. SPECTATOR (#2) made her debut on June 23 where she was dismissed at 9-1. This was the dam’s first foal and she is by the first crop of Jimmy Creed. Her sire is off to a fast start in his freshman year with 7 victories from 25 starts. The Phil D’Amato trainee had worked exceptionally well for her career debut with three consecutive B works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including five furlong work from the gate on June 17 that Andy commented “Best outside Count Hu (Brocklebank) not asked in 24.0, 47.4 (up there) galloping out in 101.3. Has a nice late kick; Theriot up.” The chestnut filly ran to her win early pedigree and her works with a perfect trip victory rallying from behind a four-horse speed duel to win by 5-¼ widening lengths earning a respectable 68 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, she “sat 4-wide 2 lengths down, under light urging to hold her spot mid-turn, being aggressively ridden to take over in the stretch, widening from the rest in the final 1/16th.” What made this race so impressive was not only can she win rallying from off the pace but she also broke her maiden in the most productive maiden race of the spring-summer Santa Anita meet. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 60, 60, 61, and 66. In the past five years, trainer Phil D’Amato has won at a gaudy 31% rate (13-4-1-3) with maiden winners in their last start making their second start in a dirt sprint. She has come back to work equally as well with four works capped off by a visually impressive four-team drill on July 29 with stable mate Mag the Mighty and two Doug O'Neill trainees King Eddie and Johnny Be Bueno that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “Ran clear from older barn mate Mag The Mighty with a sharp late kick in 36.2, 100.3 getting passed by the 4f duo of King Eddie and Johnny Be Bueno (both O'Neil) out in 113.1. Plenty of upside here.” She is the third choice on the morning line and I believe that she creates excellent value as win wager or in multi-race bets by throwing out the two favorites.

The Play: With Surrender Now and Diamonds and Pearls the probable two post time favorites, I expect Spectator could be semi-overlooked in the wagering as the third choice. Instead of playing vertical wagers, I am going to suggest an old school WIN bet on our top choice and single in multi-race wagers such as Doubles and Pick 3s.

WIN bet on (2) SPECTATOR at 3-1 or better.

Race 8: Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style with the probable pacesetter Juno going straight to the front with morning line favorite Avenge tracking that rival in second and Hillhouse High sitting the pocket trip in third. Cambodia, Frenzified, and Pretty Girl will be tracking the pacesetter in midpack with Amboseli charging from the rear of the field.

The field’s top last race speed figure belongs to the morning line favorite Avenge who earned a 97 Beyer and 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Grade 1 Gamely in her last start. Juno owns the field’s top TimeformUS early pace rating with Pretty Girl the leader in the field’s top TimeformUS late pace rating in the field.

I am not going to beat morning line favorite Avenge in this race but I feel her odds will be low and there is one horse in this race that should offer attractive odds after the track surface hampered her chances on Kentucky Derby undercard. HILLHOUSE HIGH (#5) exits a sixth-place finish beaten 8-½ lengths in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile but her prior performance finishing in front of Juno and Pretty Girl prove that she belongs in a caliber of race such as Yellow Ribbon with a hard fought half-length victory in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine. In that race, the daughter of Exchange Rate sat an uncontested second behind the runaway leader Juno who opened up a four and six length lead through fast pace for a half mile earning red coded TimeformUS pace figure. She made the first move into the teeth of that fast pace to loom outside of Juno into the stretch, put that stubborn foe away past mid-stretch, and held off the late charge of stable mate Mokat to earn a career best 96 Beyer and 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Although this year’s edition of the Royal Heroine did not prove to be a productive race with the second through sixth place finishers returned to finish off the board in their next start, that did not stop her connections from entering her in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard and she defeated only one horse to the wire. However, the track surface did not suit her as she sat in comfortable spot on the rail stalking a very slow early pace in a race where the first two finishers were second and first at each call. In addition, the inside was not the best part of the turf course on Kentucky Derby card and Hillhouse High raced on the inside for the majority of the race making this effort better than what appears on the running line. She returns from a 91-day layoff but she is proven to run well fresh where she finished second beaten a head in her first start for Richard Baltas barn last August over this same Del Mar turf course off a 303-day layoff. Her trainer is a underrated trainer of turf starters this meet at Del Mar having trained Madam Dancealot (July 23, $21.20-1) to win Grade 2 San Clemente, Aura Rose (July 26, $4.50-1), and Kenriya (August 2, $7.90-1). Jockey Corey Nakatani who was aboard for two of Baltas turf wins is back in the irons and I expect her to enjoy a perfect ground saving stalk and pounce trip to score the minor upset over the deserving morning line favorite Avenge.

The Play: I am narrowed this race down to Avenge and Hillhouse High and believe that Avenge will get the jump into the stretch and Hillhouse High will rally to catch her rival who gives four pounds. I will focus on straight win and exacta wagers in this race.

WIN bet on (5) HILLHOUSE HIGH at 3-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 5-8, 8-5.

Pick 3: 5, 8 / 5, 6 / 3, 6, 7, 12 = 2 x 2 x 4 x $2 = $32

Pick 3: 5, 8 / 3 / 3, 6, 7, 12    = 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $8

Race 9: Allowance N2X/Optional $62,500, 1-Mile Dirt, Three-year olds and up

TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style with the probable pacesetter Curlin Rules going straight to the front with River Echo and Coast Line closely tracking that leader down the backstretch. Madiba, Stormin Monarcho, and Avanti Bello will sit in midpack hoping for a pace meltdown to materialize. City Steel and Lucky J Lane will be charging from the back of the field.

Three horses are separated by only one Beyer Speed Figure point. Coastline and Curlin Rules have the top last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure with Stormin Monarcho has second highest last race Beyer Speed Figure with a 91. Coastline has the top last race 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Curlin Rules owns the field’s top TimeformUS early pace rating and should have the advantage of being the pacesetter. City Steel owns the field highest TimeformUS late pace rating.

This is great betting race and I’m playing against another Peter Miller trainee in River Echo. The British bred has been shy on visiting the winner’s circle on the main track with three seconds from four starts and his lone victory happened at the beginning of the year when his stablemate the pacesetter Aldrin stopped in the final furlong with River Echo came along to pick up the pieces to win. Last time out he did not have any real excuse as the 4-5 beaten favorite. He prompted a very slow early pace for first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-18, -8) designated by the blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite this advantageous trip he offered very little as he was out finished to the wire by subsequent two time winner Curlin Road. He returns at the same class level but his trainer has been on cold streak not visiting the Winner’s Circle since July 23 with Prime Issue and I will wait until the barn starts heating up before I back there starters.

One cannot discuss this race without mentioning the track profile at one-mile here at Del Mar. Nine of the first fourteen races at this distance were won by horses on the lead or less than one-length off the lead at the first pace call (half mile pole) for a gaudy 64% win rate. That rate is increased when you consider that twelve of the first fourteen races at this distance were won by horses that were on the lead or less than one-length off the lead at the second pace call (quarter pole) for striking 86% rate. Two horses fit that track profile but only one of them will offer a hint of a value and that horse is COASTLINE (#5).The six year old Speightstown gray is winless in three starts this year all in sprints but two of them were on the main track and in each of those defeats he had legitimate excuses. He returned from a 279-day layoff on March 31 in a Allowance N3X sprint at 6-½ furlongs and ran respectable race to finish fourth beaten 2-¾ lengths. In that race, he disputed the early lead between rivals in a four-horse speed duel through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+6, +5). He continued battling for the lead leaving the quarter pole and actually stayed on gamely with the eventual winner Cat Burglar at mid-stretch and gave way in a race he needed anyways. He did very little running when switched to the turf three weeks later finishing last in a four-horse field. The Phil D’Amato trainee returned from a two month layoff in the Grade 2 San Carlos Handicap where he was used as a rabbit for his more fancied stablemate Ransom the Moon. In that race, he was hard used leaving the gate to battle with the favorite and eventual winner Danzig Candy through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+6, +4). He battled between rivals on the far turn and approaching the quarter pole with Danzig Candy and Ransom the Moon and weaken in the stretch to finish fourth earning the field’s top last race 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That was fast edition of the San Carlos as Danzig Candy won his third straight in that race earning a 107 Beyer Speed Figure and form of that race was flattered when the runner-up returned to win the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. He will now drop for a claiming price for his current connections and was wisely scratched from last weekend’s Bing Crosby for this realistic spot. According to DRF Formulator, his trainer, Phil D’Amato, does not do well with stretch outs on the main track at Del Mar (12-0-2-2). However, his early speed is deadly over this main track at this distance and should be on the lead past the quarter pole and make the rest of the field attempt to chase him to the wire at a hint of a price.

The Play: I boiled this race down to three contenders: Coastline, Curlin Rules, and Stormin Monarcho. From those three horses I will key Coastline in exactas top and bottom and will recommend using all three equally in multi-race wagers with “A” contenders Coastline and Curlin Rules because both horses fit the track profile.

WIN bet on (5) COASTLINE at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-6. Small reverse for each.

Race 10: Maiden Claiming $62,500, 1-Mile Turf, Three and up

TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style but there are at least three horses in this race that can ensure a contested pace to set up for horses rallying from off the pace. Captain Ron, Californium, and Waldorf have either lead or pressed fractions in their recent starts that have earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Kinematico will use his rail position to sit position behind this trio of leaders. I’m Living Proof will be sitting in mid-pack and Amazon Cry looks to be in that same position and unleash strong late kick in the stretch with Tastemaker looking to be charging from the rear of the field.

When certain trainer gets hot in a specific category I will continue to wager on their horses when they are realistically placed. AMAZON CRY (#7) is that horse for trainer Phil D’Amato who has won six turf races this meet including five of them routing on this Jimmy Durante Turf Course. The Louisiana bred has routed twice and each race was better than their respective efforts would suggest. He made his debut on April 30 at one-mile on the turf at Santa Anita and finished in front of only two horses in a ten-horse field. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, he “broke a step slowly, pulled forward then steadied early to lose position, moved forward into a tracking spot down the backside, put in a nice run three-deep into and around the far turn, four-wide into the lane.” This was a better than looked in what has returned to be “key” race with the third, fourth, and tenth-place finishers returning to break their maiden in next start. He returned four weeks later stretching out to 1-⅛ miles in his second career start where he never had a chance to save ground. In that race he prompted the slow early pace three wide on first turn and down the backstretch early, he was asked to moved closer while three wide on the far turn, was right with the leaders at mid-stretch, and gave way to finish eighth beaten four-lengths behind the last to first winner Miner’s Light in another “key” race where fourth-place finisher Ample Sufficiency returned to win on July 22 with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure and fifth-place finisher Oregon came back to win his next two starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 81 and 89 respectively. He shorten up to down the hill in his last start and managed to split the field running evenly through the stretch to finish seventh behind perfect trip winner Mucho Chrome. He will now stretch back out to two turns for a barn that has won at excellent 26% (47/12-6-3) with his starters stretching out from a sprint to a route on the Del Mar turf including two this meet: Spin Me a Kiss (July 27, 2017, $1.70-1) and Spiritual Warrior (August 3, 2017, $4.70-1). Thiago Pereira remains in the irons and in a wide open race let’s opt for a horse with a winning trainer profile and sneaky form on the turf versus better company.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) AMAZON CRY at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 7-3, 7-6, 7-12. Small reverse.