Bolt D'Oro Looks for Clear Trip as Value Play in Futurity

Race 7: Allowance N2X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

KATHY’S SONG (#3, 8-1) is a horse that I was at Del Mar for her first start in Southern California where she was sent off at 27-1 in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks and I made a note on my program and in my Formulator account that stated the following: Traffic filled trip with no chance to run. Deserves a big look if she ever gets clear sailing. I will go more into her trip later but she came into the Del Mar Oaks with two daylight wins at Indiana Grand for previous trainer Brad Cox. She was sent off as the 1-5 on June 7 where she enjoyed an ideal pace prompting trip where she sat second pressing a very slow early pace noted by blue TimeformUS pace figures. The daughter of Candy Ride made a run at the loose leader on the far turn to grab the lead into the stretch and showed a nice burst of late speed to kick away to win by 1-¾ lengths. This maiden field turned out to be a “key” race with the runner-up, sixth, and seventh-place finishers returned to break their maiden in their next start earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 77, 63, and 66 respectively. She faced winners for the first time on June 28 and she showed versatility as she rated in midpack behind a fast pace set by uncontested leader My Drink Selection and pace presser Handful Baby Girl early. Although she was parked three wide down the backstretch, jockey M Pedroza had a ton of a horse that once he push the button she unleashed three wide sweep to inhale the leaders and open up a two-length at mid-stretch and once again kicked clear to win by three-lengths. She was privately purchased and transferred to the barn of Richard Baltas where she was working very well for her local debut including outworking older stablemate Place Des Vosges on August 3 where she went five furlongs in 1:00 ⅖ (August 3 - Kathy's Song). She merit long shot consideration in the Del Mar Oaks where she never had a chance to run. In that race she traveled in the two path around the first turn and down the backstretch racing between Vexatious and Pacific Wind as Blame It On Alphie set a fast pace for the first half-mile. She continued racing in the two path down the backstretch and jockey Gary Stevens remained patient saving ground as others such as Pacific Wind made wide middle move into the far turn to reach contention. On the turn, Kathy’s Song was caught a trouble spot racing between rivals with four horses in front of her and that continued into the stretch as she was blocked. Finally, once a hole became open she, Pacific Wind, and Madam Dance A Lot were trying to get to that hole but Kathy’s Song had to check severely losing all chance and was never set down as she was ridden to the wire to lose by 5-½ lengths to opportunistic closer Dream Dancing. Although she will face older rivals today, she does not meet an accomplished field and with clear sailing she can win as TimeformUS pace projector sees her get ground saving trip behind expected pacesetter, Dis Smart Cat. and with trouble free and ground saving trip she can produce a solid late kick at a hint of a price under new rider Joe Talamo.

The Play:

WIN bet on (3) KATHY’S SONG at 4-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 3-5. Small reverse.

Small Exacta: 3-1, 3-2. No reverse

$2 Pick 4: 3 / 6 / 1, 7, 8 / 2, 5, 6, 8 = 1 x 1 x 3 x 4 x $2 = $24

$1 Pick 4: 5 / 6 / 1, 7, 8 / 2, 5, 6, 8 = 1 x 1 x 3 x 4 x $1 = $12

$0.50 Pick 4: 3 / 3, 4, 9 / 1, 7, 8 / 2, 5, 6, 8 = 1 x 3 x 3 x 4 x $.50 = $18

Total Wager: $54   

Race 8: Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 Furlongs, Two-year olds

BOLT D’ORO (#6, 6-1) was not a secret when this handsome son of Medaglia D’Oro made his career debut on August 5 here at Del Mar. He was purchased as a yearling for $630,000 at the Fasig-Tipton August 2016 sale. He was by the A.P. Indy mare Global Trot who was a three-time winner that produced one starter Sonic Mule who won four times in a eleven starts. The Mick Ruis trainee had impressed all his morning observers including National Turf’s Andy Harrington who raved about his two works leading into his first start with a B+ including a eye popping five furlong move in 1:00 flat on July 29 (July 29 - Bolt D'Oro) where he caught him tracking “barn mate Eskimo Rose early moving up and looking tons the best in the lane then held the 4f working older trainee Sweet Dragon Fly (Callaghan) at bay late in 35.1, 100.0 out in 112.4. Some size here.” His workouts resulted in him going off as the 4-5 post time favorite and according to the Daily Racing Form trouble comment he was Off bit slow, vyed, and clear. However a closer inspection of that race reveals he had a lot more trouble than the trouble comment would indicate. Breaking from post position four in a field of ten, Bolt D’Oro got into a serious bumping match with rivals inside and outside of him shortly after the start which forced jockey Corey Nakatani to rush his colt into a three-horse speed duel down the backstretch with pace rivals Flip the Coin Jan and King Cause. He continued to battle for the lead in a head and head speed duel with the former on the far turn, shook him and fellow pace rival King Cause on the turn to take over the lead, and safely held off the late challenge of Bank Walker to win by 2-¼ lengths earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure and 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Although his TimeformUS Speed Figure ranks as the third highest last race speed figure in the field and other fancier maiden winners such as Soul Strait and Zatter earned higher Beyer Speed Figures, the difference between them and our top selection is neither of those horses or Tatters to Riches had to overcome the type of adversity this colt had to overcome in his career debut. He has come back with two works that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a solid B concluded with five furlong move in 1:00 ⅘ that he stated “walked to the top in 13.2, 37.4 but came home with a rush in 101.0 (23.1 LQ) out easily in 114.3. Solid.” Five entrants in this field have TimeformUS early pace ratings of 110 or higher including two with early pace ratings of 120 or higher suggest the meets final Grade 1 will go off at a fast pace and I expect Bolt D’Oro to relax early behind this spirited speed duel and produce a solid stretch punch to mow down his rivals similar to how his stablemate, Union Strike, did in last year’s Del Mar Debutante for owners Mick and Wendy Ruis.

The Play:

WIN bet on (6) BOLT D’ORO at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-4, 6-9. Small reverse for each.

Race 9: Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year old Fillies

DAWN TRAVELLER (#1, 8-1) is a maiden that will be facing winners and this daughter of Dragon Pulse was defeated as the 2-1 post time favorite in her North American debut on August 13 at today’s distance here at Del Mar. However, she encountered trouble right at the start that most likely compromised her chances leaving her would too much to do in the stretch and this Simon Callaghan trainee showed of stakes quality in her career debut where she finished fourth beaten only a length in a fifteen horse field maiden field at the Curragh on May 27 where the TimeformUS foreign analyst said she is “open to improvement.” Not only did she finished very well in a full field to lose by a length but she went against a strong field of maidens. The runner-up, Now You’re Talking, came back to finish fourth in a twenty-three horse field in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. The third-place finisher Clemmie went on to win the Group 3 Grangecon Stud Stakes at Curragh on July 2 and came back twelve days later to win Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket. Based on this effort plus trainer Simon Callaghan with foreign shippers she was a best bet selection on August 13 and she could only manage a fifth place finish beaten 4-¾ lengths behind opportunistic rail skimming rally Multiplayer. However she lost any chance to get into good position early at the start. The gray or roan filly was bothered and forced out at the start by Misty Slew which forced to trail early more than a dozen lengths behind fast pace set by Ladybug who set red coded TimeformUS pace figures for the first six furlongs. She still trailed on the far turn, came out into the lane, and made up a decent amount of ground to cut the deficit to 4-¾ lengths at the wire. The belief in this corner is that the start compromised her chances by forcing her to be further off the pace than what she wanted. She will now make her second start in North America and gets blinkers for the first time which is a winning angle for the Simon Callaghan who wins at 31% (13/4-1-0) in the past three-years adding blinkers for the first time to turf routers and the blinkers were on when she worked five furlongs in 1:01 ⅖ on August 24 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B. Her late kick will be flattered by very fast pace that TimeformUS pace projector suggest with Terra’s Angel going for the early lead followed or pressed by Medaglia Gold, Scat Home Lady, and Street With No Name. With Flavien Prat in the irons and good inside draw I look for major improvement in her third career start at hint of a price.

The Play:

WIN bet on (1) DAWN TRAVELLER to WIN at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-7, 1-8. Small reverse for each.

Race 10: Allowance N1X, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward

RED LIGHTNING (#1, 6-1) is a horse that I have followed and have detailed trip notes on for each of his races. He endured a traffic filled trip in his career debut on April 22 where he was never allowed to run and finished up under his own power to be third behind the daylight gate to wire winner Leading Score in a “key” maiden race that produced two next time out winners in Miner’s Light and Bird Orr Brady. He had no excuses when he pressed a very slow early pace on May 28, put in his run to challenge the leader and eventual winner Bird Orr Brady and hung badly through the stretch to finish second. In his third start on July 1 he lacked the early speed he displayed behind a slow pace won by pace pressing winner Pavel where this son of Midshipman was running in spots and the addition of blinkers would help this colt stay focus. The blinkers were added on July 23 here at Del Mar and he improved to win the early pace battle but lose the war behind the opportunistic stalking winner Stone Hands. In that race he flashed early speed to establish a pressure pace with the first time starter Way Gone through very slow early pace noted by blue TimeformUS pace figures with Little Juanito and Stone Hands tracking that duel in third and fourth respectively. The began to quicken into and around the far turn as Little Juanito joined the two dueling leaders on the far turn and Red Lightning appeared in trouble into the stretch but re-rallied along the inside to grab the lead only to be run down by the opportunistic stalking winner Stone Hands right near the wire to lose by a half-length finishing in front of Troublewithatee who came back on August 19 to break his maiden with a career best 80 Beyer Speed Figure. It appeared this colt was developing the tendency of being a trail maiden but that notion was thrown out the window when he came back three weeks later and broke his maiden in visually impressive manner that was also impressive from a speed and pace figure standpoint. He dueled head and head with his rival Little Juanito early and then settled just off that leader as they went at fast early pace noted by red TimeformUS pace figure for a half mile. He re-challenged that rival around the far turn, took the lead into the stretch, and kicked clear to win going away by 3-¼ widening lengths and it was accomplished in fast time. The 94 Beyer Speed Figure and 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned are the second highest last race speed figures in this field and suggest he can not only be competitive in this Allowance N1X event but also he can win this race. He has bounced back with an easy maintenance five furlong move in 59 ⅘ on August 28 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating this “always good worker came back with an easy spin out of overdue win.” His early speed should come in handy from the rail as he should get a great stalking trip with Peter Miller trainees Prime Issue and Big League on or near the front end as those two have highest TimeformUS early pace ratings in the field. Santiago Gonzalez should track those dueling leaders and get first run on them into and around the far turn. He will be a decent price facing winners for the first time but he has improved with blinkers and has more upside for red hot William Morey barn.

The Play:

WIN bet on (2) RED LIGHTNING to WIN at 4-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-5, 2-6, 2-8. Small reverse for each.

 

Sharp Samurai Looks Too Sharp in the Del Mar Derby

BEST BETS:

BIG BUZZ (Race 5, 6-1)

SHARP SAMURAI (Race 8, 7-2)

Race 5: Del Mar Juvenile Turf, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year olds

BIG BUZZ (#4, 6-1) will make his second career start in this listed stakes race as a maiden but this Tim Yakteen trainee ran much better than his running line or his comment Off Slow, 5-wide into lane comment in your Daily Racing Form would suggest in his career debut back on August 12 here at Del Mar. He is regally bred to run long on the turf as he is by the Dynaformer stallion Mr. Big out of the Unusual Heat mare Not Unusual and she won two of nine starts routing on the turf and she has passed that affinity for routing on the turf to her progeny. She has produced two winners from as many starters with her most famous sibling being Big Buzz’s full brother Big Score who is the morning line favorite in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. Although it is very difficult to train a horse to win at first asking in their first start going long on the turf, trainer Tim Yakteen does very well with that move especially here at Del Mar where he wins at 38% rate (8/3-0-0) including one this meet with Multi Player (August 13, 2017, $12.30-1). Despite his breeding and his trainer’s success with turf horses making their debut going long, Big Buzz was dismissed at 10-1 in his career debut and the lack of wagering support was the result of his workouts leading up that race. National Turf’s Andy Harrington witness his last two works prior to his debut and was not impressed giving him a pair of C+ including his August 5 move where he stated “solo spin never getting out of third gear in 101.3. Like to see some racing here.” He was defeated in that race by Respect the Hustle by two-lengths but the difference in margin is the result of ground lost. In that race, he broke step slowly from the gate, jockey Rafael Bejarano maneuvered him over to the inside into the first turn and save ground for the first quarter of a mile. Down the backstretch, he was taken towards the outside in the three-path racing along the eventual winner but as Respect the Hustle saved ground into and around the far turn, Big Buzz launched his run parked four to five wide on the turn and was fanned five wide into the stretch as the eventual winner saved every inch of ground and came out two paths off the rail into the stretch and rallied to win by half-length. Big Buzz lost nothing in defeat finishing well out in the center of the turf course to lose by only two-lengths. The amount of ground he lost is reflected in Trakus where he covered 24 and 32 feet more than the first two finishers. I expect him to move forward in a considerable way in his second career start especially after he worked five furlongs in 1:01 ⅕ on August 27 in company with his full brother Big Score (Big Buzz - August 27) where he was in hand throughout under a nice hold towards the wire and galloped very well. His late kick should be flattered by a very hot pace that TimeformUS anticipates with Martin Riggs, Bombardeo, and Take the One O One all vying for the front end to ensure hot pace for Big Buzz who just needs a ground saving trip to reserve his late kick at what should be a hint of a price to start the Sunday Pick 6.

The Play:

WIN bet on (4) BIG BUZZ at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 4-8, 4-9, 4-11. Small reverse for each.

$5 Pick 3: 4 / 3, 5 / 2, 7 = 1 x 2 x 2 x $5 = $20

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year olds

THIRTEEN SQUARED (#5, 5-1) is my co-top choice with stable mate Alluring Star as both horses are trained by Bob Baffert and he has been sensational this meet with two-year olds making their career debut in a maiden special weight dirt sprint. Through the conclusion of yesterday’s program, he is winning at 40% (10/4-3-0) with this move and two of those four wins were with today’s rider Rafael Bejarano in the irons: Just A Smidge (July 19, $2.00-1) and Zatter (August 20, $1.70-1). Thirteen Squared gets the top preference not only because he is trained by a red hot conditioner but also based on his excellent win early breeding and his workouts for his career debut. He is by the first crop of the Arnold Zetcher owned and race stallion Liaison who is off to a fast start at his home of Spendthrift Farms. From fourteen two-year olds to race, four have won but the impressive part about those four winners is that THREE of them won their career debut. Vicente’s Shadow (Emerald Downs, June 18, $11.90-1), Pont Du Gard (Arlington Park, July 7, $31.10-1), and Bronx Beauty (Penn National, July 13, $1.20-1) all won their career debut for the stallion Liaison. The dam, House of Fortune, who was also raced and owned by Arnold Zetcher won 8 of 22 starts on the race track for almost a million dollars in earnings and won 3 of 5 start as a two-year old. She produced two winners from three starters but none won as a two-year old. He comes into his career debut with four works over the Del Mar main track including a half spin in 48 ⅘ on August 16 with stable mate High Drama (Thirteen Squared - August 16) where he showed high speed from the start not allowing the workmate to go by him while nicely in hand with the only negative is switching from his right to his left lead a few strides out of the gate. Following this work, he came back with two back to back B works from National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a five furlong move in 1:00 flat on August 29 that he showed a “good late rush while best over barn mate Vitality in 36.1, 59.3 (23.2 LQ) finishing with plenty in reserve; Bejarano up.” By a red-hot first crop stallion whose progeny are firing in their career debut, training very well, and for a conditioner who has done nothing wrong with his first time starters this meet makes the uncoupled entry of Thirteen Squared and Alluring Star the two tough to beat in this event.   

The Play:

WIN bet on (5) THIRTEEN SQUARED at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-5, 3-6.

Main Exactas: 5-1, 5-3, 5-6.

$5 Pick 3: 3, 5 / 2, 7 / 5        = 2 x 2 x 1 x $5 = $20

$2 Pick 3: 3, 5 / 2, 7 / 3, 10  = 2 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $16

Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds and upward

JUST KIDDING (#7, 20-1) is my co-top choice along with The Lieutenant but the top choice goes to the longest shot on the morning line. The Lemon Drop Kid appears to have tailed off having not finished in the money in all four starts this year losing his three starts on a wet fasted or fast main track by a combined 21-½ lengths. However, this bay gelding showed signs of returning to form with a better than looked fifth place finish beaten eight lengths behind the 2-1 favorite Irish Freedom. Prior to that defeat, this Peter Eurton trainee no excuse finishing fifth beaten five-lengths on July 16 at Los Alamitos where he navigated a ground saving trip stalking a very slow early pace dictated by the uncontested leader Got Even who earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and below average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (-18, -8). He remained in striking position around the far turn but was empty when the real running started finishing to be fifth. That race and his previous nine starts on a main track were for Allowance N2X and in order to turn things around his connections dropped him for the optional claiming price of $40,000 on August 13 and added the blinkers for the first time and based on his finish position he ran another sub-par race to finish fifth but he showed indications that he could be rounding into form. He was switching to Corey Nakatani he was hustled from the gate to duel through the first eighth of a mile before establishing a clear lead and then widen his margin down the backstretch where he went way too fast for a half mile earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and above average Moss Pace Figures (+35, +28). He continued to maintain his margin and position on the front end on the far turn as the winner Irish Freedom began to cut into that leader’s margin midway on the far turn. Despite tiring to finish fifth, Just Kidding held on well through mid-stretch and lost the minor placings by 3-¼ lengths as the second through fourth place finishers rallied from 11th, 9th, and 10th to complete the superfecta in a highly rated race where the winner earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. This was a good effort in defeat considering how fast he went early and earned the field’s top last race 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field. Moreover, the form of that race was flattered when the third-place finisher, Brimstoned, returned to win Allowance N1X on the turf on September 1 here at Del Mar. This traditional good work horse returned with an easy half mile spin on August 25 in 48 seconds flat and now drops seven pounds as he gets apprentice Laura Werner in the irons for the first time. I expect Laura Werner to utilize this gelding’s early speed by placing him on the early lead but hopefully not go as fast early as he did last time out. In a race where the two morning line favorites, Kristo and Show Me Da Lute, are vulnerable let’s point for a potential speed horse realistically placed and up and comer The Lieutenant.

The Play:

WIN bet on (2) THE LIEUTENANT at 6-1 or better.

WIN bet on (7) JUST KIDDING at 15-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-7, 2-8, 2-9.

Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-8, 7-9.  

Race 8: Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, 1-⅛ Miles, Three-year olds

SHARP SAMURAI (#5, 7-2) is looking for his third straight turf stakes victory this year and looks to give trainer Mark Glatt another victory on the penultimate day of the Del Mar meet as he is enjoying a career meet. The First Samurai gelding used to be one-dimensional front runner but under jockey Gary Stevens he has learn how to ration his speed to stalk and pounce effectively. The bay gelding accomplished his first stakes victory in the Rainbow Stakes at today’s 1-⅛ distance on June 10 where he was able to get over from post position nine in a eleven horse towards the inside and stalk the pace in comfortable spot down the backstretch as the leader Monster Man was able to dictate an uncontested lead through a moderate 48.18 second half mile. He stayed on the inside on the far turn and into the stretch patiently waiting for room to develop, found a seam along the inside at mid-stretch, and exploded to win by 1-¼ lengths defeating three of the same rivals he faces today: Monster Man and Fashion Business. He bypassed the traditional opening day Oceanside Stakes on July 19 to point for today’s Del Mar Derby and would use the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap as his prep for this event and he won that race by only head over Fashion Business but that margin does not take into account the amount of ground this bay gelding lost. He rated towards the rear of a bunched field early and continued biding his time towards the rear as Double Touch and others made premature wide moves to get into contention down the backstretch. He uncorked a five wide run to loom the entire field on the far turn and grab the lead into the stretch, opened up a short lead, and held off the late run of Fashion Business to win by a head earning the field’s top last race 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure and is tied for the top last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure. What makes that race impressive was Sharp Samurai covered 44, 45, and 49 feet more than the second through fourth place finishers according to Trakus. In a race where it has only one confirmed pacesetter in Monster Man, TimeformUS pace projector sees him place second tracking that rival and this additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue as he is undefeated at 1-⅛ in two starts. He showed no signs of regression when he returned two weeks after that race to work five furlongs in a near bullet 59 ⅕ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “breezed quickly in blinkers with Gary S up in 23.3, 59.2 reaching in his usual noteworthy manner Big as usual.” He should continue his winning way under his regular rider Gary Stevens as he looks to get first run on Bowie’s Hero and Big Score.

The Play:

Play the (5) SHARP SAMURAI to WIN at 5-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-10. Small reverse for each.

Spectator Looks to Shine Again in the Debutante

BEST BET: SPECTATOR (Race 7, 5-2)

Race 6: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and upward

TRIFECTA (#7, 5-1) is a horse that based on form might be shy of visiting the winner’s circle with six combined seconds or thirds from eighteen starts on the turf but this Any Given Saturday gelding enters this race in top form finishing first or second in two of three starts including an excellent runner-up performance over this turf course on July 28 here at Del Mar. The Mike Puype trainee has finished off the board only once and that happen two races back on June 17 where he was victimized by a very slow early pace and wide journey from start to finish. He was forced to break from post position eight in a eight horse field where he found himself three wide into and around the first turn and three wide down the backstretch chasing or pressing the eventual winner Hey Dude as that leader was able dictate slow early fractions earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He made a run to challenge the eventual winner three wide on the far turn and sustained that run to the top of the stretch where he flattened out on his run and weaken to finish seventh beaten five-lengths in a race where the second-and-eighth place finishers returned to win. Despite this defeat, his connections showed plenty of confidence keeping him in Allowance N1X on July 28 and he ran excellent race behind rally wide winner Oregon in a race that is better than the Blocked ⅛, split foes comment in your Daily Racing Form. According to the HR Trip Notes, Trifecta “ran along at the back of the main pack on the inside, under a hold on the inside of the 3rd flight heading into the far turn, in very tight for a 1/16th of a mile, exploding forward when finding room to be a clear 2nd.” In addition, Trip Note writer stated “he was unlucky to struggle for room in the stretch, but the way the winner ran, it is likely it did not matter this time.” This July 28 Allowance event returned to be “key” race with the winner finishing second in Allowance N2X on August 26 earning identical 89 Beyer Speed Figure and the fourth-and-fifth place finishers, Calvert Street and Fritz Johansen, returned to finish first-and-second on August 19 at the same Allowance N1X class level. The stalking style that has suited him well this year should be on display with David’s Memory stretching out from a sprint to route and Brimstoned and Spanish Hombre forwardly placed on or near the early lead. He has bounced back with three works including a sharp five furlong spin in 1:01 ⅖ on August 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington caught him “feeling very good waiting on stakes winner Estrechada going the last 1/4 in 23.4.” With a stalking style that suits the pace for this race and hopefully a clear ground saving trip under regular rider Joe Talamo I expect Trifecta to spring the minor upset to start the final Saturday of the meet.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) TRIFECTA at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-6, 7-11. Small reverse for each.

Race 7: Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, 7 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies

SPECTATOR (#3, 5-2) is the morning line favorite but the belief in this corner is she could possibly go off as either the second or third choice with plenty of attention centered around two impressive maiden winners Moonshine Memories and Just A Smidge. This homebred daughter of excellent freshman sire Jimmy Creed is undefeated in two starts and she has shown a terrific burst of acceleration in the stretch to indicate the additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue. She broke her maiden in her first start on June 23 rallying from off the pace behind a four-horse speed duel early to win by 5-¼ widening lengths at a generous 9-1 earning a respectable 68 Beyer Speed Figure. The strength of that race was more impressive than the final speed figure would indicate in the most productive two-year old maiden race of the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita.The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 60, 60, 61, and 66. When she made her second career start on August 5 in the Grade 2 Sorrento she was my best bet of the day based not only her visually impressive maiden victory but also impressive July 29 five furlong work in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Ran clear from older barn mate Mag The Mighty with a sharp late kick in 36.2, 100.3 getting passed by the 4f duo of King Eddie and Johnny Be Bueno (both O'Neil) out in 113.1. Plenty of upside here.” Despite this visually impressive move and defeating a key race field, she was sent off as the 4-1 third choice behind impressive maiden winner Diamonds and Pearls and the undefeated Surrender Now and she showed new dimension by taking it to her rivals from the start and never looked back. Run over a main track that favored speed, Spectator “pressed the pace between runners down the backstretch, dueled in the far turn, headed briefly, dashed away at the top of the stretch, opened up, ridden out.” The impressive part about this victory was the extent of the fast early fractions had on Spectator’s pace rivals. The fractions of 21.93 and 45.05 earned above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+18, +11) and those splits saw her pace rivals weaken to finish third beaten 9-¾ lengths, sixth beaten 29-¾ lengths, and seventh and last beaten 48 lengths. She has been pointed specifically for this race by the meets leading trainer Phil D’Amato and she continues to train like a filly with plenty of promise ahead with three works including a near bullet five furlong move in 59 ⅕ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ flashing a “Big late rally with older barn mate Towards The Light in 37.0, 59.4 (22.4 LQ). Filly is still strong as ever; Theriot up.” This chesnut filly can either lead and dispute the early pace outside of likely leader Moonshine Memories or settle just off it if a speed duel develops and this versatility gives jockey Jamie Theriot plenty of options as she might be slightly overlooked in this talent laden field for the Del Mar Debutante as my BEST BET on the card.

The Play:

WIN bet on (3) SPECTATOR at 3-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 3-5. Small reverse.

$5 Pick 3: 3 w/ 1, 2 w/ 4, 6, 13 = 1 x 2 x 3 x $5 = $30

$4 Pick 3: 5 w/ 1, 2 w/ 4, 6, 13 = 1 x 2 x 3 x $4 = $24

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year olds

MAJOR CABBIE (#2, 6-1) is a first time starter that will be going against St. Patrick’s Day a full brother to 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in his career debut thirteen days ago and earn the field’s highest last race 81 Beyer Speed Figure and 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Despite those credentials of the post time favorite, everything I have seen from Major Cabbie on a pedigree standpoint, trainer profile, and more importantly his workouts over this Del Mar main track and when you combine that with price that will be around the 5-1 area or higher than the correct play is take the price on this bay colt by excellent debut sire Into Mischief. He was purchased at the Ocala Breeders Sale April two-year old in training sale for $260,000 where he breezed two furlongs in 21 ⅖ and that purchase price is above the sire’s average price of $209,200 for his progeny. He is by 14% debut sire out of the dam Love Catcher who was unraced but produced five starters with three winners including two-year old winner Love Conquers. Trainer Dan Hendricks is not known for his debuting two-year olds here at Del Mar and the reason for that is because he rarely debuts them this early. In the past five-years, he has had only two starters that were two-year olds make their career debut sprinting on the main track here at Del Mar and none of them hit the board. However, Dan Hendricks successfully trained the three-year old, Morgan S, to break his maiden in his debut on August 18 here at Del Mar with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. His stablemate is important to mention in this discussion because on August 2 he worked in company with Major Cabbie where he went three furlongs from the gate in 34 ⅘ with the latter getting outworked by his older stablemate. Since that move, he has come back with four more works including a visually impressive six furlong move on August 15 in 1:12 ⅕ that saw today’s jockey Drayden Van Dyke aboard for the work and he did it very easily with ears pricking back and forth early and finishing with plenty of power towards the wire, and galloping out with energy in reserve (August 15 - Major Cabbie Work). In addition, National Turf’s Andy Harrington has been impressed by this bay colt in his morning training giving him consecutive B moves for his August 15 and August 21 works. He is bred for speed over a distance that favors that style, has worked in tremendous fashion towards his career debut, and for an underrated trainer with first time starters makes Major Cabbie the upset play to begin the final Pick 4 on a Saturday here at Del Mar.

The Play:

WIN bet on (2) MAJOR CABBIE at 5-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 2-1. Small reverse.

Small Exacta: 2-3. No reverse.

Race 9: Grade 2 John C. Mabee, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

MRS. MCDOUGAL (#6, 5-1) was defeated as the 4-5 post time favorite in the restricted Osunitas Stakes on July 21 where she finished third beaten 2-lengths behind today’s rival Madame Stripes and next time out winner Corps De Ballet. I believe there are reasons to excuse that defeat none more important than the fact this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was returning from 300-day layoff and her form from last year gives this bay mare reasons to respect this Richard Mandella trainee. Last year, she won two of four starts with her two defeats happen in two prestigious Grade 1 events: Just A Game behind the runaway pace pressing winner Celestine where she finished third as the beaten favorite and Diana behind her previous stablemate Dacita. The last time she visited the winner’s circle happen on September 24 at Belmont Park where she was sent off as the 1-1 choice in the Grade 3 Noble  Damsel and she took advantage of ideal conditions en route to earning career best 101 Beyer Speed Figure and 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She took control of the early lead from the start and set controlled pace through slow fractions designated by the blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and never looked back to win by two lengths over her previous stablemate Zendaya who came back to win the Grade 2 Goldikova at Santa Anita in her next start. That race would be her last race under Chad Brown as she was transferred to Richard Mandella barn and should not make her first start for her new conditioner until July 21, 2017 in a restricted overnight stakes where she was sent off at 4-5 and she finished a respectable third beaten only 2-lengths where she needed the race. According to Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, she “settled on the outside in midpack, confidently ridden into the turn, quickening when asked turning for home, but unable to get close to the top two in the stretch.” Although the Trip Note writer stated that she is probably best at one-mile, I believe this race was used strictly as a prep because jockey Flavien Prat elected to rate her off a moderate early pace and she finished under her own power to the wire. In addition to the long layoff, she covered 47ft and 17ft more respectively than the first two finishers, Madame Stripes and Corps De Ballet. She has returned with four more works capped off by a best of eight six furlong move in 1:12 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating she was “best over Antioch going the last 5f in 59.4. Was pulling nicely early; plenty of speed still evident.” TimeformUS pace projector feel that Mrs McDougal will be on or near the early lead along with Hillhouse High and that should give her a tactical advantage over stalkers and closers such as Decked Out, Cambodia, and Goodyearforroses.

The Play:

WIN bet on (6) MRS. MCDOUGAL at 4-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-4, 6-13. Small reverse for each.

Race 11: Maiden Special Weight, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up

TANIKO (#7, 5-1) is a horse that requires a lot of imagination especially when you look at this horse on paper it would appear he would be a throw out. He has lost his two starts by a combined margin of 34-½ lengths and has defeated only one horse to the wire. He will now make his first start off a 230-day layoff and based strictly on those points he would be an automatic toss. However, previous form on the main track does not pertain when they switch to a new surface especially a surface that Taniko is bred to adore and the meets leading trainer, Phil D’Amato, strengths is horses switching from dirt to turf in a maiden turf route and this $260,000 Fasig Tipton purchase is making that same move. As mentioned earlier, this son of Gio Ponti has shown very little in two starts on the main track as he failed to pass a single horse beaten 23-lengths in his career debut on November 25, 2016 here at Del Mar behind the gate to wire winner Prime Attraction. In his next start on January 15, 2017 he remained on the main track even though the race was originally scheduled to be run on the turf, trailed early behind a very slow early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (-17, -11), came out into the stretch, and passed only one horse without threatening anyone beaten 9-½ lengths. He will now make his first start in more than six months but plenty of changes would suggest that he might be capable of turning around. Firstly, he will be switching to the turf for the first time and he is half brother to three turf winners and two of them are Graded Stakes winners that you might be familiar. Vyjack winner of two of nine starts on the turf including last year’s Grade 2 City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita and recently was second in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile behind Blackjack Cat. The most famous starter from the dam Life Happened is Tepin the 2015 Breeders Cup Mile winner and 2016 Group 1 Queen Anne winner at Royal Ascot and overall won ten of seventeen starts on the turf. Secondly, trainer Phil D’Amato brings him back as a new gelding on the turf in a maiden special weight route and in the past five years here at Del Mar he connects at 29% rate (14/4-2-1) with his starters switching from dirt to turf in a maiden special weight turf route and he has striked twice with that move this meet. Spiritual Warrior (August 3, 2017, $4.70-1) and Troublewithatee (August 19, 2017, $5.60-1) with today’s rider Corey Nakatani riding him for the first time. He comes back with nine works dating back to June 28 at Los Alamitos capped off by a back to back B moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including six furlong move in 1:13 flat that he stated “Nice kick while best over Holy Whirly Wind in 37.0, 100.2 (23.2 LQ) galloping out in 113.1. Looks improved.” The switch to turf where he is bred to adore for a trainer that excels with that maneuver and training like a horse that has improved with the time away makes Taniko an intriguing upset possibility in the finale.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) TANIKO at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 7-4, 7-8, 7-12. Small reverse for each.