Race 4: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three-year olds
BEYOND BRILLIANT (#4, 8-1) is a son of Twirling Candy who will make his third start of this meet and so far it has not been a productive summer as he comes into this race beaten a combined 25-¼ lengths in those two starts. However, each race was better than the margin of defeat would suggest and with circumstances in his favor on closing day I expect a form reversal for this John Shirreffs trainee that could land him in the Winner’s Circle at a juicy price. He ran on opening weekend on July 17 at a flat mile on the main track where he ran into a Del Mar horse for course, Ginobili, in the fastest dirt mile of this Del Mar meet (1:36.18) that earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. In that race he rode the rail on the first turn and down the backstretch, chasing the fastest half mile at this distance, 45.21 seconds. He angled into the three paths into and around the far turn and made a nice run along with eventual fourth place finisher Established to the top of the stretch and flattened out on his run to finish fifth beaten 14-¼ lengths. No disgrace splitting this field as the speed figure was confirmed when Ginobilli came back to win G2 Pat O’ Brian on August 28, 2021 with a 102 Beyer Speed Figure and fourth place finisher, Established, came back to win Allowance N1X on August 21, 2021 with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure. Also, Beyond Brilliant raced along the inside for more than a half mile of this race on a main track with strong pro-outside bias. He returned three weeks later at the same class level at 1-1/16 on the main track where he found himself pressing a fast pace through the first half mile in between the favored winner, Defunded, and long shot pace rival in Betito. Beyond Brilliant stayed with the favored winner to the quarter pole and then gave way to lose by eleven lengths. This defeat was the result of a fast pace as the 46.17 second half mile he set was the sixth fastest half mile split from the first forty-three dirt route races through Saturday’s card at Del Mar. He switched to the turf and he ran well in his two sprints on turf in his first two starts and comes into this race with two maintenance workouts of half a mile and five furlongs. More importantly, is the pace of this race. Beyond Brilliant will not have to chase the pace that Ginobili set two races back in the fastest pace one mile this meet and will not have to set such an enervating half mile like he did in his recent start. In a race where TimeformUS pace projector sees it favoring horses on or near the early lead, new rider Kent Desormeaux will have this bay colt on the front end from the start and say catch me if you can as my BEST BET on closing day card.
The Play:
WIN bet on (4) BEYOND BRILLIANT at 7-2 or higher.
Main Exacta: 4-3. Small reverse.
Race 6: Allowance N1X, 5 Furlongs Turf, Three-year olds and upward
DEISE DELIGHT (#7, 6-1) will make her third start of this meet and this Irish bred daughter of Brazen Beau has run very well in her two starts here at Del Mar. She ran third in a one mile Starter Allowance race on turf on July 25 where she set a pressured pace from the start with long shot pace rival Lookin So Lucky as those two dueled all the way to mid stretch where Deise Delight finally put away that rival but was softened up late as the first two finishers, Cinnte Winnte and Viazer, took advantage of the speed duel to rally from eleventh and tenth after the first half mile on a course and distance thru the first four weeks of the meet played pro closer bias. Also, this was not a visually impressive race to watch as only 4-½ lengths separated the first ten finishers in a race that I term in my notes as Bunched. In order to turn around her form, she cut back to five furlongs and added the blinkers for the first time on August 19 here at Del Mar and ran second behind her stablemate and today’s rival A.G. Indy but the difference for the win was the winner got a clear three-wide tracking trip while Deise Delight had to wait for room and that was the ultimate decision. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “she moved up to stalk the pace inside, had to wait as the winner got first run leaving the far turn and into the lane, came out and finished well while very late switching leads, too late for the win.” That moment that she had to wait was the difference in victory. She returns in eighteen days with the move up in class to Allowance N1X in a race where the TimeformUS pace projector once again sees this race favoring horses on or near the early lead. Deise Delight has early speed to lead like she showed in her first three starts routing on turf but the blinkers have enhanced that speed as she can be forwardly placed close to the early lead in a turf sprint such as the case last time out. Capable replacement Abel Cedillo takes the mount for the first time and with a cleaner trip at the top of the stretch I could envision Deise Delight turning the tables on her stablemate A.G. Indy to spring the mild upset to begin mandatory payout of the Jackpot Pick 6.
The Play
WIN bet on (7) DEISE DELIGHT at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: 7 with 1,5. Small reverse.
Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward
LAUREL RIVER (#7, 3-1) is a horse that I have patiently waited to stretch out to two turns. My notes on this son of Into Mischief are “will handle the stretch out under favorable circumstances.” Today is the day if my notes prove accurate as this Bob Baffert trainee stretches out for the first time. He rode a pro-inside speed bias on April 3 to break his maiden by four and a quarter lengths with a career-best 92 Beyer Speed Figure and he has yet to visit the winner's circle in two subsequent starts. However, I can find excuses where the result of those two defeats was because of the early pace. He ran in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera on May 15 at Santa Anita where he ran second as the 6-5 second choice behind the favorite The Chosen Vroon but Laurel River won the early pace battle only to lose the war. In that race he popped the gate to lead only to face immediate pressure from the longest shot in the field, I’ll Stand Taller, as they zipped through 21.32 second opening quarter. He was able to shake loose of that rival into and around the far turn only to face immediate challenge from the favorite The Chosen Vroon who took over the lead at the eighth pole and won by three and a half lengths earning a 83 Beyer Speed Figure but this speed figure I upgraded to his maiden victory because the fractions he set were all coded red by TimeformUS and earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures. The pace was so fast that the pace rival he dueled with finished last beaten twenty-eight lengths. He shortened up to five and a half furlongs and returned from an eighty-four day layoff on August 7 where he was bet down to the 9-5 second choice in this field and opening quarter of a mile and trip too fast and sharp for his taste. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “broke a bit cross-footed, settled 3-wide, tracking the pace, pushed forward in the turn, took dead aim, spat the bit instead, faded the final furlong.” He tracked a fast pace for the first quarter of a mile as the 21.51 second opening quarter was the second fastest first quarter at this distance through the first twenty-nine races on this trip through Saturday’s card. This fast pace resulted in the favorite, I’ve Got No Munny, to rally from last along the rail to win. He now stretches out after back to back chasing or pressing fast paces in his last two starts and being on the lead after the first pace and second call at this one mile trip has proven to be a successful running style. Through the conclusion of Saturday’s card, thirteen races (33%) were won by horses on the lead after the first call and sixteen races (40%) were won by horses after the second call. Laurel River’s early speed stretching out to one mile will see this bay colt in the lead and if he sets the pace he could continue that successful trend of gate-to-wire winners on this trip as my second BEST BET on the card.
The Play:
WIN bet on (7) LAUREL RIVER at 9-5 or better.
Main Exacta: 7 with 3,8. No reverse.
Race 10: Starter Allowance, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and upward
MUAY THAI (#4, 8-1) is a horse that has been bothered by back to back troubled trips in his races this meet and is the only horse to make my horses to watch list twice for one meet. The Irish-bred Accalamtion gelding was sent off as the 7-2 second choice in his North America debut on July 23, 2021 here at Del Mar and according to the short comment in your past performances it says Bid 4 deep, faltered. He had a more difficult trip than that comment would indicate. He broke from post position seven in an eight horse field and was parked three wide into the first turn and down the backstretch, racing without cover for the first half mile and the trip did not get any better from here. He launched a four wide move into and around the far turn and sustained that bid all the way to mid-stretch before the wide trip and 116 day layoff caught up to him as he flattened out on his run to finish fifth. I upgraded this effort because of the long layoff and the wide journey cost him his best chance. He made his first start off the claim for John Sadler and his main client Hronis Racing LLC on August 20 at Del Mar where the comment said bumped, checked late. Once again the video replay reveals a lot more than the short comment would indicate. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “bobbled at the start, raced outside of ROOKIE YEAR off the pace down the backstretch, angled down to the fence, came out with his run near deep stretch, bumping and bothering PLAY CHICKEN, gained between horses deep stretch, was bumped and forced out by VANTAGE POINT bumping ROOKIE YEAR, checked hard late to lose all chance.” He ultimately was disqualified and placed sixth but he had another troubled trip. This closer will need pace and he will get it on the final race of the meet with Stone’s River the confirmed pacesetter in the finale with Ox Bridge and Cane Creek Road two horses that will chase or press Stone’s River early. From post position four, regular rider Joe Bravo will have him covered up into the first turn, save ground, and with a clean trip visit the Winner’s Circle for a meet that Jersey Joe has established him as one of the top riders to challenge Flavien Prat for leading rider in Southern California.
The Play:
WIN bet on (4) MUAY THAI at 4-1 or higher.
Main Exacta: 4 with 7,9. Small reverse.
