Race 6: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year old Fillies
SEPTEMBER (#10, 6-1) is the higher priced of the two horses trained by Aidan O’Brien who this year broke trainer Bobby Frankel record number of Grade or Group 1 victories in a single year when Saxon Warrior won last week. This daughter of Deep Impact has recorded two victories with one second and third from five starts. Her form might not be as splendid as her stablemate Happily but it is mired with ground issues and traffic troubles that could see this filly come into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf undefeated. After her breathtaking over males in the fifteen horse Chesham Stakes, she returned with a fourth and third-place finishes in her next two starts but each start had a legitimate excuse. She returned from a nine-week hiatus in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes on August 20 and finished badly beaten fourth behind Happily who ran second. The excuse in this poor effort was the soft ground she encountered. Three weeks later she ran in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes where she finished third once again encountering soft ground behind Happily. She stretched out to one-mile for the first time and encountered firm turf for the first time since her win at Royal Ascot and she was very unlucky not to emerge victorious. The Timeform European analyst stated “traveling strongly in touch but caught behind horses too long in the penultimate furlong, finally getting a gap inside the last and powering home but just failing to get up, suited by the extra 1f too.” This dark bay or brown filly has a dangerous late kick and despite the post position ten I believe that should play it perfectly to September’s strength. From the outside draw, Dixie Moon will go straight to the front after leading at the pace in her last two starts but will find company for the front end with Ultima D. Haffernan who brilliantly rode Highland Reel to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and with early pace and ground she will enjoy I expect September to reverse the decisions to Happily during the summer to spring the minor upset to start Friday’s Breeders’ Cup program here at Del Mar.
The Play:
WIN bet on (10) SEPTEMBER at 4-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-8, 10-11. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward
ACCELERATE (#8, 7-2) is one of my better plays on the Friday Breeders’ Cup program and will be a single in the Breeders’ Cup Late Pick 4 that ends with the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The son of Lookin at Lucky enjoys the Del Mar main track with a stellar record of three wins and one-third place finish from four starts and more importantly won his last two starts over this same main track and distance last year. The John Sadler has won only once in six starts this year but some of his defeats this year happen with legitimate excuses. He rallied to finish second on May 5 behind Danzig Candy who would go on to win Grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap and Grade 2 San Carlos Handicap with 107 Beyer Speed Figure in each start. After that race, he was beaten badly by Collected in the Grade 3 Precisionist by 15-¾ lengths and that rival is now seven for seven on a fast main track including a victory in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. His lone victory this year happen in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap on opening weekend where he was able to coast on an uncontested early lead into first turn, turned away a brief challenge when hooked down the backstretch, and proceeded to draw away defeating Pegasus World Cup and Dubai World Cup winner Arrogate in the process earning a then career best 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He would attempt to stretch his speed to 1-¼ for the first time in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic and he was outrun by Bob Baffert team of Collected and Arrogate in a race that earned a strong 115 Beyer Speed Figure that ties it for the third fastest route races at one-mile or more this year. In that race he was the nearest pursuer of pacesetter Collected applying pressure to that rival on the backstretch and made a run at the eventual winner on the far turn before being turned away past the quarter pole and finished six and a half lengths in front of the rest of the field earning career best 110 Beyer Speed Figure that ranks as the third highest last race Beyer Speed Figure in this field. The chestnut has been specifically pointed for this race with eight works capped off by a B+ five furlong move the gate in 1:00 ⅘ on October 28 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Espinoza up; broke well then was roused out going 24.4 early turning it on in the lane going 48.3, 100.4 galloping energetically in 114.1. Looks happy; honed early speed in this gate move; seems likely to be very forwardly placed.” He should get a great trip in the first flight of runners behind likely pace battled between Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca early and without a rival such as Collected or Arrogate in this field and exiting the best race in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, Accelerate is the BEST BET on the card.
The Play:
WIN bet on (8) ACCELERATE to WIN at 3-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 8-2, 8-3, 8-7. Small reverse.
Pick 3: 8 w/ 2, 4, 6, 8 w/ 5 = 1 x 4 x 1 x $5 = $20
Pick 3: 2, 3, 7 w/ 2, 4, 6, 8 w/ 5 = 3 x 4 x 1 x $2 = $24
Pick 3: 8 w/ 2, 4, 6, 8 w/ 4, 6, 7 = 1 x 4 x 3 x $2 = $24
Total wager: $68
Race 8: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year olds
UNTAMED DOMAIN (#2, 8-1) is a two-year old son of Animal Kingdom who has run around two turns on the turf in his last three starts and has recorded two victories and one third. However, closer inspection of that only defeat behind Catholic Boy in the Grade 3 With Anticipation on August 30 reveals he might have been best. He was unprepared when the started unleashed the gate and he hopped badly spotting the field at least two-lengths at the start. The Graham Motion settled into the two path on the first turn and down the backstretch with two longshots Earth and Trumpi set a fast pace through the first half mile. He commenced his run three wide on the far turn and was forced out five wide into the stretch where he ran in spots to the wire racing greenly and focused as he was out kicked by the better trip of eventual winner Catholic Boy and held on for third. The bay colt covered the final two and a half furlongs in a field’s best 29.02 seconds and the form of that race was flattered when fourth-place finisher, Seabhac, returned to win Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont Park in his next start. In order to resolve those issues of running in spots, he was equipped with blinkers for the first time in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes at Woodbine at today’s one-mile distance and he overcame a less than ideal pace scenario to rally from mid-pack to win by a neck over the pace pressing favorite Hemp Hemp Hurray. According to OpTix Notes, “less than ideal trip broke step slow and tossed head moved outside off turn finished in a drive all class to get this win.” He once again delivered another devastating late kick covering his final two furlongs in a field’s best 22.71 seconds. He has been freshen and pointed for this race with four works at Fair Hill and his deadly late kick should be flattered at what could be a hot early pace to set up late kick. Hemp Hemp Hurray, Snapper Sinclair, and Sands of Mali are inherit early speed to ensure a quick pace and under Jose Ortiz should get over from post position two to save ground and produce solid late kick at a hint of a price.
The Play:
WIN bet on (2) UNTAMED DOMAIN to WIN at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 2-4, 2-6, 2-8. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, 1-⅛ Miles, Fillies and mares
ELATE (#5, 3-1) is the second choice on the morning line behind Stellar Wind but this regally bred daughter of Medaglia D’Oro has blossomed this summer and has thrived in her morning preparation for this event to suggest that a peak performance is coming. After a narrow defeat by Abel Tasman in the Coaching Club American Oaks where the OpTix Notes stated “bobbled at the break, made inside move herded in stretch by winner, tough to close along inside,” she came back in the Grade 1 Alabama on August 19 and destroyed the field at generous 4-1 to win by 5-½ lengths over subsequent Grade 1 Cotillion winner It Tiz Well. In that race, she forced four-wide into the first turn and raced three-wide down backstretch behind the uncontested leader It Tiz Well who established fast fractions per Moss Pace Figures through the first six furlongs (+15, +7) of that 1-¼ miles event. The Bill Mott trainee made a three wide rush on the far turn to grab the lead past the quarter pole and proceeded to draw away through the stretch to score her first Grade 1 victory. The 98 Beyer Speed Figure was validated when It Tiz Well won the Cotillion with an identical 98 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. She would returned in the Grade 1 Beldame on September 30 at Belmont Park where she proved that victory was no fluke destroying an overmatched field of older fillies and mares to score her second Grade 1 victory. In that race, she stalked a moderate pace on the rail through the first six furlongs, she patiently bided her time waiting for room to develop into the stretch, found room between rivals at mid-stretch, and once again took off with long and powerful strides to the wire to win geared down. The third-place finisher, Eskenformoney, returned four weeks later to win the Grade 3 Turn Back the Alarm Stakes with improved 92 Beyer Speed Figure. She ships to Del Mar for the first time and has acclimated very well including 49 second flat breeze on the main track on October 29 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ commenting “impressive looking sort bowled home in 25.2, 49.0 (a big 23.2 LQ) out big in 101.1. Filly is built like an Aircraft Carrier; has gotten better and better she has grown into her body through the course of the year. Would suspect she will be even better as a 4 year old.” She is conditioned by Bill Mott who has won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff or Ladies Classic five times most recently with Royal Delta in 2011 and 2012. This home-bred is blessed with excellent tactical speed and should get a great trip forwardly placed stalking pacesetter Paradise Woods down the backstretch with Champagne Room in second. If she continues to improve on her impressive credentials she will give her connections another Breeders’ Cup victory as this same owner and breeder had Blame defeat Zenyatta in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
The Play:
WIN bet on (5) ELATE at 3-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 5-4, 5-6, 5-7. Small reverse for each.
